International patent analysis as a tool for corporate technology analysis and planning

New, techniques of international patent anabsis are illustrated and resultsfrom preliminary validity tests of these techniques are presented. Indicators of technological activity, technological significance and commercial potential are constructed, and used to analyze fiber-based opto-electronic couplers and monoclonal-antibody-based diagnostic kits at the levels o f the technology, nation and firm. The international patent indicators are found to be closely correlated with R&D expenditures, scientific publications and new product introductions. They also relate to these indicators in ways that moke sense as specified in simple regression models of the innovation process. Comparisons of patent analysis results with expert opinion (for two process technologies) reveal that technology-level analyzes conform quite well with expert opinion, but national - and firm-level analyes vary from a low to a modest correlation with expert opinion. The authors conclude that the techniques can provide important information for corporate technology management, but that studies of additional technologies and further validity tests are needed.     

A semantic analysis approach for identifying patent infringement based on a product–patent map

Identifying patent infringement beforehand is highly important for reducing the risk of damages. However, as the approach to patents is changing from the technological and legal approaches of the past to the business approach, strategic patent infringement litigation and securement of patents can be important tools for companies. From various viewpoints, companies can consider an aggressive patent infringement litigation as well as evasion strategy of patent infringement litigation to keep competitors in check. Previous research on patent infringement identification only considered the possibility of infringement between patents. However, infringement cases between patent and product are prevalent. Thus, this research aims to suggest an automated method for identifying patent infringement between the patent and product in business. To this end, this paper proposes the subject–action–object (SAO) semantic technological similarity-based product–patent method for generating infringement maps. Several indices and subgrouping methods are suggested to interpret the map. As an exemplary case, data on technology and products related to the light emitting diode (LED) lamp are collected and exploited.     

The demand for corporate jets: a discrete choice analysis

Discrete choice analysis is extended into the corporate arena with an analysis of general aviation business jet purchases. Based on previously overlooked data derivable from US aircraft registrations, an estimated model confirms that the business jet market processes information about product attributes similar to household markets for automobiles. Corporate purchasing decisions seem most sensitive to operating efficiencies, interior comfort, and brand loyalty. Price matters, but the average estimated response is inelastic. Other statistically significant attributes with choice elasticities less than one, include aircraft speed and reliability/safety.     

Patent text mining and informetric-based patent technology morphological analysis: an empirical study

Patent technology morphological analysis utilises the advantages of both patent information analysis and morphological analysis to provide more detailed information on current and future patent technology. Current patent technology morphological analysis methods are largely reliant on manual expertise in the construction of morphological boxes with few approaches to the evaluation of future morphological configurations. We developed a patent text mining and informetric-based patent technology morphological analysis technique. We defined the basic parameters of the morphological box as the factors in factor analysis, with a patent keywords matrix, and the clusters in clustering analysis with factor scores. Patent citation, year of patent registration, keyword frequency, and contributing factors were used to evaluate future morphological configurations. We used an empirical study of liquid crystal display wide viewing angle patents to validate our method. The Thomson Reuters Derwent Innovation Index was used to collect patent text datasets. Our study indicates that this method is feasible for the implementation of patent technology morphological analysis. Our method provides advantages in terms of cost and time reductions during morphological box construction and more flexible methods for evaluating morphological configurations. We discuss problems and possible development of our method in the last section.     

Games for urban and regional planning: A pedagogical tool

Dissatisfaction with the normative models developed within urban and regional planning during the sixties has led to an increased interest in the use of games. This technique has above all been applied as a pedagogical aid in order to bring reality into the classroom. The use of the gaming technique has successively broadened and politicians, administrators, planners, ordinary people, etc. can now take an active part in a number of different games. Together, they try to create an increased understanding of the existing interaction between the key figures of the social, economic and physical planning process. Examples are given of different games, both manual and computer types. The function of a game is briefly threefold: education, research and planning. All these functions are dealt with. We have a number of alternatives facing us in the future and we need to know far more about them than we do to-day. By using common forecasting methods we can produce future alternatives for a particular sector or special activity. However, we encounter considerable difficulties when it comes to analyzing an entire situation or complex question with all the resultant combinations of alternatives. Even if we above all require research on these matters, the group process involved in a planning game affords an environment where the combinatory aspects of results in future situations can be illustrated in an all-around manner.     

Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy

The methodology known as strategic foresight is an important tool to be used in long-term strategic planning activities and in support of the decision making process in public as well as private sectors. This article addresses the use of strategic foresight applied to the strategic management plan for an agency that deals with the funding and promotion for the development of science, technology and innovation in Brazil, and the logic that permeated its construction, promoting an alliance of the concepts of strategy and foresight. It has as key elements the long-term vision and the adoption of participatory approach and qualitative and quantitative methods. The methodological framework involved the use of different techniques, methods and tools, including, among others, web survey, diagnosis, SWOT, future timeline, interviews, workshops and strategic roadmap.     

How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?

Scenarios are claimed to support strategic decision makers. They are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties. This paper addresses some drawbacks of the conventional scenario method, which is especially directed at handling these uncertainties, and indicates possible avenues for methodological adaptations. We take the approach, which rests in the Shell tradition, as exemplary for our discussion on the mainstream scenario methodology. This approach has some limitations when it comes to dealing with simultaneous trends and countertrends, and trends or clusters of trends that are not thought of beforehand, especially the methodological requirements of causality and consistency, which might be limiting factors in this respect. This paper indicates alternative ways for scenario construction. It discusses the use of either recombinant scenarios, context scenarios, or inconsistent scenarios and/or combinations of these scenarios. These options explicitly incorporate the notion of ‘paradoxical trend’ as the codriver of future developments into the methodology.     

Patterns of technology life cycles: stochastic analysis based on patent citations

Patent analysis has been considered as an effective means of estimating phases of a technology life cycle. However, previous studies have not considered the dynamic and idiosyncratic aspects of a technology’s progression since they were based on deterministic methods, mainly fitting s- or double s-shaped curves to patent application counts. Moreover, previous methods cannot be executed at the individual patent level. We propose a stochastic technology life cycle analysis to trace the phases of a technology’s progression based on patent citations and identify the patterns of technology life cycles at the individual patent level. At the heart of the proposed approach are a hidden Markov model to estimate the probability of a system being at a certain hidden state from observation and cluster analysis to group a set of objects according to their similarities. A case study of patents about laser technology in lithography is presented.     

Spectral analysis as a tool for model discrimination: An application to international capital movements

Empirical discrimination between ‘stock’ and ‘flow’ formulations of international investment based on regression tests has consistently proved unsuccessful. By applying the new technique of model discrimination in the frequency domain, this note provides unequivocal empirical support for the stock model.     

The boundaries of firms in the new economy: M&As as a strategic tool toward corporate technological diversification

Following the dynamic capabilities approach, we understand the recent wave of M&As as a corporate strategy mainly stimulated by the increasingly complex and uncertain techno-socio-economic environment in which firms operate. In this new situation, the boundaries of firms are in greater flux since firms are unable to develop individually all the competencies required to keep pace with the continual redefinition of business lines being driven by corporate competition. Using US patents granted to the world's largest firms, this paper analyses the dynamics of the sectoral specialisation of corporate technological profiles following large shocks that require some M&A deal. The findings of the analysis enable us to evaluate the adoption of M&As as a strategic tool to reshape corporate technological boundaries. On these grounds, we are able to identify patterns of technological diversification into strategic fields according to different models of industrial technological development.     

A framework for technology based national planning

Technology, in today's increasingly interdependent society, provides hope, values, and faith for mankind. It brings hope for bridging the gap between the haves and the have-nots; it is responsible for altering economic and social values; and it is the faith upon which the world of tomorrow is being built. Thus, the relationship between technology and the development of our societies is inextricably bound in a complex manner. This paper examines the problems of achieving technology induced socioeconomic progress, as well as the limitations of current national accounting practices. To integrate technological considerations into the national development planning process better technology measurement methodologies must first be designed. Secondly, to make the integration process more organic and effective “make-some and buy-some technologies,” based on the concept of an approach to development planning and using three technology domains (importing technology, traditional technology, and exporting technology) is needed.     

Mapping technological development using patent citation trees: an analysis of bogie technology

We create a generational patent citation tree to reveal the development of bogie technology in the high-speed rail industry. We cull the information in patent citations to reveal the generational development of bogie technology by analysing patent titles, patent publication dates and patent-granting regions. We then measure the development of bogie technology by calculating its technological development on-orbit rate and by mapping the stages of technological development and its regional diffusion. The results show that bogie technologies are in a period of sustained growth and this period of sustained growth will remain. Technological development is accelerating and this acceleration will persist, although the global dispersion of technology lags behind in scope and speed.     

Unveiling the core technology structure for companies through patent information

Patent information provides an objective and public source to understand core technologies of companies. In this paper, a method is proposed for identifying core technology capabilities for a company in the semiconductor industry. The method is built on the patent similarity and K-means clustering algorithm. The indirect relations among the patents in the complex industry are considered in the method. In addition, the age of the patent is taken into account to avoid identifying aged core patents. The method is demonstrated by exploring the core technology capabilities that support the platform technology portfolio of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).     

国际技术转移与我国技术创新

在经济全球化、一体化的背景下,跨国公司作为国际技术转移主体的作用正在不断增强,FDI的流入的确推动了我国的经济进步,但跨国公司为了维持其在某些领域的垄断地位,还会千方百计地阻挠这种技术的转移和扩散,加上我国自身的经济结构和体制的障碍及吸收学习能力的有限,技术转移的效应可能达不到理想的理论水平.因此,既要注重跨国公司的技术转移,又不能忽视我国的技术创新,这是实现经济可持续增长的根本所在.     

International law as a negotiation tool in Banking Union; the case of the Single Resolution Fund

EU’s response to the recent Euro-crisis has involved a mixture of EU and international law, with the latter being linked to all the arrangements that may have fiscal implications for national Member States. The SRF embodies all the controversial characteristics of Banking Union. This article illustrates the legal implications that this political choice creates, and how the interrelation between the SRM, the SRF and the ESM, allows leading economies, including Germany, to control the resolution framework both before and after crisis. This raises questions as to the direction that European Integration is taking and its highly nationalised character.     

A tool for fiscal policy planning in a medium-term fiscal framework: The FMM-MTFF model

This paper describes the FMM-MTFF model, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model developed to support the implementation of a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) in emerging market and developing economies. The model exhibits the following features. First, fiscal policy is defined in terms of multi-year fiscal plans, instead of restricting attention to univariate, single-period fiscal shocks. Second, the model temporarily deactivates the fiscal rule to avoid forcing fiscal policy to be mechanically countercyclical and sustainable. Third, the model is calibrated to match a three-sector, stylized version of a country’s input-output table, and finally, the model uses a chain-weighted procedure to measure GDP, a method consistent with what national account compilers do. The model is calibrated to Colombian and Peruvian data to illustrate the use of the model as a tool to quantify the scale of the fiscal challenges, to provide consistent medium-term macro fiscal projections and to assess the quantitative implications of past reforms and alternative fiscal policy plans on the economies, i.e., the typical questions of interest to an MTFF.     

Evaluating technology disruptiveness in a strategic corporate context: A case study

This study examines how firms interpret new, potentially disruptive technologies in their own strategic context. The study uses a propositional framework for evaluating the amount of radical change in the companies' business models with two middle variables, the disruptiveness potential of a new technology, and the strategic importance of a new technology to a firm. The framework is used in a cross-case analysis of four potentially disruptive technologies or technical operating models: Bluetooth, WLAN, Grid computing and Mobile Peer-to-peer paradigm. The technologies were investigated from the perspective of three mobile operators, a device manufacturer and a software company in the ICT industry.The data was gathered in group-discussion sessions in each company. The results of each case analysis were brought together to evaluate, how firms interpret the potential disruptiveness in terms of changes in product characteristics and added value, technology and market uncertainty, changes in product-market positions, possible competence disruption and changes in value network positions. The results indicate that the perceived disruptiveness in terms of product characteristics does not necessarily translate into strategic importance. In addition, firms did not see the new technologies as a threat in terms of potential competence disruption.     

International diffusion of embodied and disembodied technology: A network analysis approach

This study proposes a quantitative method for investigating the structure of international technology diffusion. By using network analysis, this study defines the structural configuration of each country within the international diffusion network by measuring its degree, closeness, and betweenness centralities. In addition, this study distinguishes between embodied technology diffusion, measured by multilateral trade, and disembodied technology diffusion, measured by patent citations, in individual countries. This study empirically tests a sample data set of international technology diffusion taken from 48 countries. The empirical results show that the structural configuration of countries exhibits similar patterns in both embodied and disembodied diffusion networks. Significant global stratification patterns exist in the capability of national international technology exportation and brokerage advantages. Moreover, this study distinguishes four blocks of countries that play different roles in international technology diffusion: the leading countries provide a source of technological knowledge; an intermediate group diffuses the knowledge acquired from the source; a third group is in the process of initiating the export of technological knowledge; and a final group of countries absorbs technological knowledge without reciprocal exportation. Finally, this study identifies two types of catch-up strategies that newly industrialized or developing countries can use to move up the international technology stratification.     

Optimum tariffs and patent length in a model of North–South technology transfer

We study a developing country's choice of optimum tariffs and patent length in a theoretical model of trade and technology transfer. A Northern firm chooses whether to export or produce a new good in a Southern country. In the absence of patent protection, a high tariff is required to induce FDI. This reduces Southern welfare when the good is imported. The Southern government can combine a positive patent length with tariffs to reduce this loss and induce FDI. Thus Southern countries may have an incentive to protect patents, although never to the same extent as Northern countries.