三次国际金融危机对中国的启示

20世纪以来全世界先后发生了1929—1933年金融危机、1997-1998年东南亚金融危机、2008年全球金融危机等三次具有代表性的金融危机。这三次国际金融危机既有相同点,也有许多不同之处,给予我们诸多启示。     

The Credit Channel at Work: Lessons from the Financial Crisis in Korea

We demonstrate that the credit channel of transmission of monetary/financial shocks appears to have aggravated Korea's economic crisis. We use micro-data gathered at the individual bank level to identify this channel of transmission. Our major findings are as follows: i) consistent with banks' autonomous retrenchment in loan supply, monetary tightening broadens the spread between marginal bank lending rates and corporate commercial paper rates; ii) credit limits on overdrafts – arguably a proxy identifying shifts in loan supply – react negatively to the monetary squeeze; iii) large negative capital shocks induce banks to disproportionately slow-down both lending and deposit taking and to disproportionately raise their lending rates. Our findings lend unequivocal support to the hypothesis that banks' autonomous contraction restricted the availability of credit and magnified the increase in its cost. In turn, this compounded the Korean crisis by aggravating liquidity constraints for the vast majority of agents who rely only on bank credit as an external source of funds.     

公允价值会计制度对金融稳定的影响——兼论美国金融危机的启示

文章从公允价值会计制度的两重功能--反映资产负债现有的公平交易价格和向投资者传递信号影响其行为出发,构建均衡模型,并利用美国市场的实证数据分析了公允价值会计制度的缺陷:内生的共振效应、加剧市场波动.在市场繁荣时,公允价值会计制度会促进资产价格的进一步上升,而在危机时期,公允价值会计制度与资本金监管要求共同作用所产生的共振效应会使危机进一步恶化.     

Credit in Times of Stress: Lessons from Latin America during the Global Financial Crisis

The 2008–2009 global financial crisis disrupted the provision of credit in Latin America less than in previous crises. This paper tests whether specific characteristics at both the bank and country levels at the onset of the global crisis contributed to the behavior of real credit growth in this region during the crisis. As shown, financial soundness characteristics of Latin American banks, such as capitalization, liquidity, and bank efficiency in the pre‐crisis period, played a role in explaining the dynamics of real credit during the crisis. We also found that foreign banks and banks that had expanded credit growth more before the crisis were also those that cut credit the most. Among country‐specific characteristics, we found evidence that balance sheet measures such as the economy's overall currency mismatches and external debt ratios (measuring either total debt or short‐term debt) were key variables in explaining credit growth resilience.     

Applying the Lessons of Asia: The IMF's Crisis Management Strategy following the Global Financial Crisis

ABSTRACT

The paper reviews the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) non-concessional lending programs following the global financial crisis, with a view to understanding how the IMF applied the lessons of the Asian crisis in designing its approach to crisis management. For this purpose, the paper focuses on the 2008 programs in Hungary, Iceland, Latvia and Ukraine – the first of its kind since the early 2000s – and compares them with the 1997 programs in Indonesia, Korea and Thailand. Our analysis finds the European programs better funded and their structural conditionality more focused. Other than these, the overall thrust of the programs was similar: fiscal and monetary tightening, coupled with banking reforms. The real difference was not so much about content but about philosophy. Relative to the Asian programs, the European programs were characterized by more emphasis on ownership, greater collaboration among stakeholders, more realistic assumptions and greater transparency about the risks and the logic of policy actions, and more built-in flexibility of targets and policy options. This approach to crisis management incorporated the changes that had been made since the Asian crisis in the IMF's policies and procedures to manage capital account crises more effectively.     

货币政策方略：来自金融危机的教训

直至2007年8月．货币经济学理论和实证研究上的进展已经使经济学家和政策制定者认定当前存在着一门明晰的“货币政策科学”。中央银行就货币政策方略的绝大部分要素达成了一致,同时货币政策被认为在OECD国家取得了巨大成功：后者不仅保持着低通膨,而且通胀波动率也很低。此外,这些国家的产出波动率也下降了,而自20世纪80年代初以来的时期更被冠以“大缓和（Great Moderation）”的称号。货币经济学家和中央银行家都自我感觉相当良好。     

美国金融危机的“腐蚀性”及启示

美国金融危机"腐蚀性"特点主要表现为:危机中受影响的金融机构量大且种类多样,危机的发展是持续渐进的.基于此.本文分析了该特点产生的原因.首先,抵押贷款证券化机制扩大了陷入危机的金融机构范围;其次.证券化产品的复杂性使其风险的暴露是渐进的;最后,美国金融体系运行的杠杆化造成了金融危机的持续演进.     

金融自由化、危机和救助:拉美和东亚对中国的启示

拉美和东亚国家多数存在金融压制问题,在发展过程中,这些国家普遍开始进行金融自由化,拉美和东亚各国的金融自由化指数显示了各地自由化的不同特点。自由化可能造成新型的双重危机,即银行危机和货币危机同时或相继发生,危机发生后,政府有多种援助手段可用,但与之相关的各种成本很高,危机的影响也将持续数年,中国应吸取拉美和东亚邻国在金融自由化和危机处置方面的经验教训,从而在金融自由化过程中保持稳定。     

Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis

In May 1997 the Czech Republic abandoned its exchange rate peg, the centerpiece of macroeconomic strategy since 1991. This paper examines the usefulness of theories of speculative attack in interpreting the crisis. Significantly, after the crisis subsided, competitiveness returned to its earlier level. One interpretation is that the koruna was the innocent victim of turmoil in Asia. This neglects the trend deterioration of competitiveness prior to the crisis. Hence, the crisis provoked a much-needed adjustment in fiscal policy, which altered the monetary-fiscal mix and consequent equilibrium exchange rate. Sterilization during 1994–96 delayed adjustment. Earlier abandonment of the parity would have helped only if it had also induced the required fiscal adjustment.J. Comp. Econom.,December 1998, 26(4), pp. 669–690. Birkbeck College & CEPR, 7 Gresse Street, London W1P 2LL, United Kingdom.     

国际金融危机改变世界经济格局

从列举国际金融危机的现象入手,分析国际金融危机对世界经济发生根本性变化的影响,提出国际金融危机给我国带来的挑战与机遇及应对策略。     

危机四伏的世界经济 百年一遇的金融危机——2008年世界经济和国际金融形势回顾与前景展望

进入2008年,在缺乏新的增长点支撑和一系列负面影响下,世界经济结束了持续多年的高增长、低通胀时期,潜伏在经济、金融领域的风险不断释放。从当前世界经济和国际金融形势看,美国次贷危机的深化已演变成全面的金融危机,国际金融市场急剧恶化成为现实的威胁。受此影响,世界经济正面临着严重衰退风险,势必加深全球范围经济与金融领域调整的深度。     

美国金融危机对世界经济的影响及中国的政策走向

目前正在上演的美国华尔街风暴已将全球金融带入了一个恐慌的状态,并必将导致全球生产要素价格和增长格局发生演变,从而对中国经济产生深远的影响。本文首先探讨了这次金融海啸的实质,进而展望了金融海啸后强势美元归位的历程,认为世界经济有可能重回低利率低通胀时代,对此,中国的基本经济政策应当有所调整。     

Supra-National Money and the Euro Crisis: Lessons from Karl Polanyi

The paper seeks to examine some of the key features of Karl Polanyi’s ideas explaining the collapse of the pre-Great Depression unregulated market system by using his broad framework of analysis, as developed in The Great Transformation and published over 70 years ago, to explain the present Eurozone crisis. Emphasis is placed on the two key institutions of the pre-Depression era, namely haute finance and the gold standard, as well as his heterodox views on the nature and origin of money to shed light on the evolving crisis within the Eurozone. On the basis of Polanyi’s insights, the paper concludes that the cause of the latter crisis is similar and it lies primarily in the adoption of stateless or supra-national money that is even more restrictive on the behaviour of national authorities than the conditions imposed under the gold standard. The current situation of quasi-permanent austerity in the Eurozone is the inevitable consequence of its monetary architecture, and it will remain a long-term feature of Europe, unless significant institutional changes are put in place to bridge the gap between money and the state.     

人民币国际化特点和路径研究

人民币国际化已进入初级阶段,具有现钞结算和银行渠道结算并举、经常账户和资本账户同步推进、人民币国际化与人民币可兑换同步推进三大特点,区别于一般货币国际化路径。人民币境外需求成为人民币国际化的沃土,同时人民币国际化又受到自由兑换方面的局限,因此推进人民币国际化应采取"强制度"模式。当前,应将推行人民币国际贸易计价结算作为人民币国际化切入点,通过制度完善,实现人民币国际化阶段性突破。     

Projecting from a Fiction: The Case of Denmark and the Financial Crisis

Institutional and ideational crises are characterised by fundamental uncertainty about the world, and at the same time require swift action on part of decision makers. How do political actors overcome uncertainty to enable collective action? The paper argues that actors use the ideas of the pre-crisis regime and through processes of bricolage seek to fit them to radically different circumstances. This enables action, but it also privileges the actors that benefited from these ideas before the crisis. This helps explain why so relatively few changes to financial regulation are appearing from the recent crisis. The argument is illustrated through the case of financial crisis in Denmark, demonstrating that the Danish authorities used ideas developed since the banking crisis of the 1980s concurring on the discourse that the best solution to the crisis would be a further ‘consolidation' of the sector, that is, fewer small banks and stronger large banks. This shows both the strength and weakness of using old ideas for radically new problems: it enables actors to act in concert, but changes are incremental and the weaknesses of the previous regime may thus live on in the new regime.     

从金融危机反思金融企业的会计管制

会计管制在其经济生活中,存在着管制论与非管制论两种不同的观点,在这次金融危机中,金融企业会计管制的重要性再次得到新的关注.本文分析了金融危机中金融企业会计管制的经济根源,进一步提出我国金融企业实施有效会计管制的对策建议.     

Comment on “Lessons for Monetary Policy from the Euro-Area Crisis”

This comment discusses and extends the paper: “Lessons for Monetary Policy from the Euro Area Crisis,” by Charles Goodhart. The comment claims the Eurosystem was more sluggish in responding to the crisis than the Federal Reserve due to restrictions originating from its mandate. Yet today’s challenge runs deeper, as the absence of a banking union in the Euro Area has allowed a large fragmentation in financial intermediation. The critical question is: “Given that the Euro Area is not an Optimum Currency Area and a banking union will take a long time to materialize, can the Eurosystem find a way to alleviate the fragmentation in lending rates without compromising its independence?” The comment offers a solution, which would expand the monetary toolbox.