中国模式:利益结构调整与宏观经济调控

我国当前的社会利益结构体现着中国市场经济模式的特点,既表现了一般市场经济利益结构多元性、差异性、倾斜性的特征,又表现了公有制模糊、利益行政化和过渡性这些中国式特征。利益结构失衡是导致中国宏观经济运行出现波动和宏观调控出现不同效应的重要因素。要调整利益结构,就要清晰界定公有制各层次的产权、合理调整中央政府与地方政府的利益关系、改革收入分配制度、构建合理透明的利益结构调整长效机制,而这些又有赖于社会主义市场经济体制的完善。     

Macroeconomic Adjustment and External Dependency in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper examines the behavioral parameters of the IS equations for eight countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The empirical results show an overall destabilizing effect rooted in the parameters of the IS functions. The study lends support to the view that recourse to external financing, to balance the I-S gap in the short-run, leads LDCs economies into a state of structural dependency on foreign capital, entailing a reduction in domestic capital formation and growth through an increased reliance on imports and an inefficient allocation of domestic savings. [112, 121]     

Intertemporal Budget Policies and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Indebted Open Economies

This paper analyzes the role of government intertemporal budget policies in a growing open economy including nominal assets in the presence of an upward sloping supply of debt. This introduces transitional dynamics that influence the effects of government policy instruments on economic growth and the long term fiscal liability. It is shown that capital income taxes or a combination of tax‐cum‐expenditure or government expenditure alone can balance the long term intertemporal government budget constraint. However, those results are shown to depend critically upon the extent of distortion in capital flows brought about the upward sloping supply of debt.     

Environmental Satellite Models for a Macroeconomic Model

To support national environmental policy, it is desirable to forecast and analyse environmental indicators consistently with economic variables. However, environmental indicators are physical measures linked to physical activities that are not specified in economic models. One way to deal with this is to develop environmental satellite models linked to economic models. The system of models presented gives a frame of reference where emissions of greenhouse gases, acid gases, and leaching of nutrients to the aquatic environment are analysed in line with – and consistently with – macroeconomic variables. This paper gives an overview of the data and the satellite models. Finally, the results of applying the model system to calculate the impacts on emissions and the economy are reviewed in a few illustrative examples. The models have been developed for Denmark; however, most of the environmental data used are from the CORINAIR system implemented in numerous countries.     

Trade and Real Wages: a Macroeconomic Model*

We offer a new paradigm to understand the effects of trade on factor rewards. It utilizes the classical‐Keynesian model, and shows that normally a country’s trade deficit hurts labor by lowering the real wage, but benefits the owners of capital. The effects of tariffs on factor rewards and employment are opposite to those of the trade deficit, which falls with a rise in the tariff rate. Countries with trade shortfalls unambiguously benefit from their tariffs, because laborers far outnumber capitalists, who suffer from the declining interest rate. Thus, tariffs lead to a rise in social welfare in trade‐deficit countries.     

中国贸易战略调整中宏观调控政策的相互协调

近年来，中国贸易顺差不断增长，进出口贸易地区结构差异显著，我国的对外贸易战略亟待调整。在这种背景下，探求保持中国贸易经济持续、健康发展的政策组合，越来越显现出重要性和紧迫性。分析了我国目前所要采取的贸易战略模式，指出要降低贸易依存度，就必须内需与外需并重，同时，只有通过产业政策、货币政策和财政政策等政策的相互协调，才能逐步改善贸易条件，重塑贸易结构。     

The Taylor Rule and Dynamic Stability in a Small Macroeconomic Model

In this paper, we embed the Taylor interest rate rule in a simple macroeconomic model with Calvo contracts. We contrast this with the case in which the interest rate is determined by the conventional LM curve along with a fixed value for the monetary aggregate. We derive conditions under which the adjustment of the economy is characterized by a unique saddle–path and show that the conditions required for this to be the case are more stringent when the authorities adopt the Taylor rule. In both cases, the possible failure of the saddle–path condition arises when there are debt–deflation effects in the IS curve. If interest rates are set according to the Taylor rule, then debt–deflation is always enough to cause the failure of the saddle–path condition. However, when interest rates are determined by the LM curve then it is possible that the real balance effect from the LM curve may offset the debt–deflation effect and produce a saddle–path.
(J.E.L. E4, E5).     

宏观调控的有效性与货币政策作用

宏观调控应该瞄准常态增长率。由于劳动力市场可以在较长时期内处于低工资水平，所以中国可以创造出较高的经济增长率。货币政策除了具有通货膨胀效应之处，还具有产出效应，从而使得货币政策能够发挥宏观调控的巨大作用，有利于经济的高速增长和城市化的加速发展。     

Trade and Indeterminacy in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

This paper introduces sector-specific externalities in the Heckscher-Ohlin two-country dynamic general equilibrium model to show that indeterminacy of the equilibrium path in the world market can occur. Under certain conditions in terms of factor intensities, there are multiple equilibrium paths from the same initial distribution of capital in the world market, and the distribution of capital in the limit differs among equilibrium paths. One equilibrium path converges to a long-run equilibrium in which the international ranking of factor endowment ratios differs from the initial ranking; another equilibrium path maintains the initial ranking and converges to another long-run equilibrium. Since the path realized is indeterminate, so is the long-run trade pattern. Therefore, the Long-Run Heckscher-Ohlin prediction is vulnerable to the introduction of externality. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E13, E32, F11, F43.     

Adjustment in General Equilibrium: Some Industrial Evidence

The link between output changes and factor-mix adjustments in general equilibrium is examined for each of nine industries using pooled data from 12 developed countries over the years 1970–85. Specifications of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem and the specific-factors model of production are built on the assumptions and structure of theory with each industry isolated in turn. In their simplest version with only capital and labor input, these competitive general-equilibrium models explain a good deal of the observed variations in industrial factor mixes. The specific-factors model performs better.     

Fiscal Stimulus and Endogenous Firm Entry in a Monopolistic Competition Macroeconomic Model

This paper sets up a monopolistic competition model featuring the returns to production specialization. Some novel results are derived from the analysis. First, the effect of a fiscal stimulus on consumption may be positive or negative, depending crucially upon whether the production function is characterized by increasing or decreasing returns to production specialization. Second, following a fiscal expansion, increasing returns to specialization lead to a positive linkage between real wages and aggregate output, while decreasing returns to specialization result in a negative relationship between real wages and aggregate output. Third, a fiscal expansion may raise social welfare, provided that the degree of increasing returns to production specialization is sufficiently large.     

滞胀风险下的宏观经济调整与货币政策选择

随着金融危机向实体经济转移和扩散,我国经济增长出现下滑,已远低于潜在增长率;而由宽松货币政策所导致的广义货币供应量在不断增加,通货膨胀压力正逐步显现。在外需短期无法恢复、内需相对不足的情况下,滞胀的风险在逐步加大。VEC模型结果表明:货币流通速度、广义货币供应量增长速度共同决定我国通货膨胀率。当经济景气程度上升、货币流通速度加快时,货币供应量增长过快会引发通货膨胀。因此,现阶段应在有效监控经济景气程度和货币流通速度的基础上,对宏观经济政策进行微调,以便提高政策搭配效果,有效化解风险。     

Equilibrium Dynamics in a Two-Sector Model with Taxes

In this paper we are concerned with the equilibrium dynamics of a two-sector model of endogenous growth with distortionary taxes. We show that for certain parameters values and tax schemes every equilibrium orbit—except the steady state solution—is non-interior; i.e., there are times in which one of the sectors is inactive. This analysis confirms that in multisector models the set of easily checkable, universal conditions that can guarantee the interiority of equilibrium solutions is rather limited. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D90, E22.     

Optimal Redistributive Taxation in a Search Equilibrium Model

This paper characterizes optimal non-linear income taxation in an economy with a continuum of unobservable productivity levels and endogenous involuntary unemployment due to frictions in the labour markets. Redistributive taxation distorts labour demand and wages. Compared to their efficient values, gross wages, unemployment, and participation are lower. Average tax rates are increasing. Marginal tax rates are positive, even at the top. Finally, numerical simulations suggest that redistribution is much more important in our setting than in a comparable Mirrlees-type setting.     

The Determination of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate in a Simple General Equilibrium Model

In this article, we develop an analytical general equilibrium model of the equilibrium exchange rate for emerging countries. This theoretical framework allows us to identify a relevant set of variables which determinate the equilibrium exchange rate and to explore how these variables influence the trajectory of the equilibrium exchange rate.     

中国经济增长与“后危机”时代的均衡调整

后危机时代,中国经济增长依然强劲,以投资为代表的扩张模式将延续传统增长动力,全年增长仍可维持在潜在增长水平之上。另一方面,强力的宏观政策激励后,资产泡沫与通货膨胀阴影挥之不去,系统性风险逐步加大,但不至于失控,2011年通胀风险在货币继续正常化条件下将有所回落。后危机时代全球经济表现出了一系列典型化事实,全球范围内金融货币和实体经济的分离、大宗商品的重新定义等,决定了发达国家与新兴市场国家之间再均衡的必然性。在此大背景下,中国经济结构的再均衡过程应该更集中在机制、体制和供给政策,优化投资结构,促进城市化和服务业的深度发展,探索一条可持续的增长之路。     

Mixed Equilibrium in a Downsian Model with a Favored Candidate

This paper examines competition in the standard one-dimensional Downsian model of two-candidate elections, but where one candidate (A) enjoys an advantage over the other candidate (D). Voters' preferences are Euclidean, but any voter will vote for candidate A over candidate D unless D is closer to her ideal point by some fixed distance δ. The location of the median voter's ideal point is uncertain, and its distribution is commonly known by both candidates. The candidates simultaneously choose locations to maximize the probability of victory. Pure strategy equilibria often fail to exist in this model, except under special conditions about δ and the distribution of the median ideal point. We solve for the essentially unique symmetric mixed equilibrium with no-gaps, show that candidate A adopts more moderate policies than candidate D, and obtain some comparative statics results about the probability of victory and the expected distance between the two candidates' policies. We find that both players' equilibrium strategies converge to the expected median voter as A's advantage shrinks to 0. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, D72.