中国模式:利益结构调整与宏观经济调控

我国当前的社会利益结构体现着中国市场经济模式的特点,既表现了一般市场经济利益结构多元性、差异性、倾斜性的特征,又表现了公有制模糊、利益行政化和过渡性这些中国式特征。利益结构失衡是导致中国宏观经济运行出现波动和宏观调控出现不同效应的重要因素。要调整利益结构,就要清晰界定公有制各层次的产权、合理调整中央政府与地方政府的利益关系、改革收入分配制度、构建合理透明的利益结构调整长效机制,而这些又有赖于社会主义市场经济体制的完善。     

Macroeconomic Adjustment and External Dependency in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper examines the behavioral parameters of the IS equations for eight countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The empirical results show an overall destabilizing effect rooted in the parameters of the IS functions. The study lends support to the view that recourse to external financing, to balance the I-S gap in the short-run, leads LDCs economies into a state of structural dependency on foreign capital, entailing a reduction in domestic capital formation and growth through an increased reliance on imports and an inefficient allocation of domestic savings. [112, 121]     

中国贸易战略调整中宏观调控政策的相互协调

近年来,中国贸易顺差不断增长,进出口贸易地区结构差异显著,我国的对外贸易战略亟待调整。在这种背景下,探求保持中国贸易经济持续、健康发展的政策组合,越来越显现出重要性和紧迫性。分析了我国目前所要采取的贸易战略模式,指出要降低贸易依存度,就必须内需与外需并重,同时,只有通过产业政策、货币政策和财政政策等政策的相互协调,才能逐步改善贸易条件,重塑贸易结构。     

宏观调控的有效性与货币政策作用

宏观调控应该瞄准常态增长率。由于劳动力市场可以在较长时期内处于低工资水平，所以中国可以创造出较高的经济增长率。货币政策除了具有通货膨胀效应之处，还具有产出效应，从而使得货币政策能够发挥宏观调控的巨大作用，有利于经济的高速增长和城市化的加速发展。     

Trade and Indeterminacy in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

This paper introduces sector-specific externalities in the Heckscher-Ohlin two-country dynamic general equilibrium model to show that indeterminacy of the equilibrium path in the world market can occur. Under certain conditions in terms of factor intensities, there are multiple equilibrium paths from the same initial distribution of capital in the world market, and the distribution of capital in the limit differs among equilibrium paths. One equilibrium path converges to a long-run equilibrium in which the international ranking of factor endowment ratios differs from the initial ranking; another equilibrium path maintains the initial ranking and converges to another long-run equilibrium. Since the path realized is indeterminate, so is the long-run trade pattern. Therefore, the Long-Run Heckscher-Ohlin prediction is vulnerable to the introduction of externality. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E13, E32, F11, F43.     

Fiscal Stimulus and Endogenous Firm Entry in a Monopolistic Competition Macroeconomic Model

This paper sets up a monopolistic competition model featuring the returns to production specialization. Some novel results are derived from the analysis. First, the effect of a fiscal stimulus on consumption may be positive or negative, depending crucially upon whether the production function is characterized by increasing or decreasing returns to production specialization. Second, following a fiscal expansion, increasing returns to specialization lead to a positive linkage between real wages and aggregate output, while decreasing returns to specialization result in a negative relationship between real wages and aggregate output. Third, a fiscal expansion may raise social welfare, provided that the degree of increasing returns to production specialization is sufficiently large.     

Adjustment in General Equilibrium: Some Industrial Evidence

The link between output changes and factor-mix adjustments in general equilibrium is examined for each of nine industries using pooled data from 12 developed countries over the years 1970–85. Specifications of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem and the specific-factors model of production are built on the assumptions and structure of theory with each industry isolated in turn. In their simplest version with only capital and labor input, these competitive general-equilibrium models explain a good deal of the observed variations in industrial factor mixes. The specific-factors model performs better.     

滞胀风险下的宏观经济调整与货币政策选择

随着金融危机向实体经济转移和扩散,我国经济增长出现下滑,已远低于潜在增长率;而由宽松货币政策所导致的广义货币供应量在不断增加,通货膨胀压力正逐步显现。在外需短期无法恢复、内需相对不足的情况下,滞胀的风险在逐步加大。VEC模型结果表明:货币流通速度、广义货币供应量增长速度共同决定我国通货膨胀率。当经济景气程度上升、货币流通速度加快时,货币供应量增长过快会引发通货膨胀。因此,现阶段应在有效监控经济景气程度和货币流通速度的基础上,对宏观经济政策进行微调,以便提高政策搭配效果,有效化解风险。     

Optimal Redistributive Taxation in a Search Equilibrium Model

This paper characterizes optimal non-linear income taxation in an economy with a continuum of unobservable productivity levels and endogenous involuntary unemployment due to frictions in the labour markets. Redistributive taxation distorts labour demand and wages. Compared to their efficient values, gross wages, unemployment, and participation are lower. Average tax rates are increasing. Marginal tax rates are positive, even at the top. Finally, numerical simulations suggest that redistribution is much more important in our setting than in a comparable Mirrlees-type setting.     

中国经济增长与“后危机”时代的均衡调整

后危机时代,中国经济增长依然强劲,以投资为代表的扩张模式将延续传统增长动力,全年增长仍可维持在潜在增长水平之上。另一方面,强力的宏观政策激励后,资产泡沫与通货膨胀阴影挥之不去,系统性风险逐步加大,但不至于失控,2011年通胀风险在货币继续正常化条件下将有所回落。后危机时代全球经济表现出了一系列典型化事实,全球范围内金融货币和实体经济的分离、大宗商品的重新定义等,决定了发达国家与新兴市场国家之间再均衡的必然性。在此大背景下,中国经济结构的再均衡过程应该更集中在机制、体制和供给政策,优化投资结构,促进城市化和服务业的深度发展,探索一条可持续的增长之路。     

Retraining the Unemployed in a Model of Equilibrium Employment

An equilibrium model of search and matching is developed to analyse the effects of retraining the unemployed on the market for skilled (or semi-skilled) workers. Versions of the model with free entry of vacancies and fixed numbers of jobs are considered. The latter environment exhibits multiple equilibria. While subsidized training (and enforced participation) is justified on employment grounds, it cannot be justified on efficiency grounds. Policies that, ceteris paribus , lower unemployment, also reduce the incentive to train. When such policies are introduced to a training economy, training may cease and unemployment can rise.     

Ramsey Equilibrium in a Two-Sector Model with Heterogeneous Households

We prove an existence theorem for a stationary perfect foresight equilibrium under borrowing constraints in a two-sector model with infinitely lived heterogeneous agents. The most patient agent holds all the capital in this solution. We also show that if the capital goods sector is capital intensive and capital income is increasing in the aggregate capital stock, then the aggregate capital stock eventually is monotonic and converges to the steady state stock. If the consumption goods sector is more capital intensive and capital income is increasing in aggregate capital we prove convergence to the steady state under more restrictive conditions. Periodic equilibria are shown to exist under weaker hypotheses. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D52, D90, E13.     

Resource Rights and Markets in a General Equilibrium Model of Production

Rights to a free resource lead to distributional deadweight losses in partial equilibrium. The present paper examines related distortions in a general equilibrium model of production with output prices constant for the small open economy. The free resource can result in lower output than a market with weak substitution in the other sector. The free resource also leads to a convex production frontier implying a price increase lowers output in the sector. Regarding policy, an import tariff, export subsidy, or price support would lower sector output. These general equilibrium distortions increase the incentives to favor resource markets over rights.     

Endogenous Growth and Equilibrium Unemployment in a North–South Model

A North–South model is developed which incorporates an endogenous rate of equilibrium unemployment in the North in the context of long-run growth. It is shown how increases in the size of public debt and unemployment compensation financed by payroll taxation, all measured relative to productivity, raise the Northern natural rate of unemployment and, consequently, reduce the global rate of long-run growth. The effect of the shocks is also to drive down the rate of employment expansion in the South. A set of the fundamental determinants of the world terms of trade is obtained, which includes policy parameters.     

Sequential Equilibrium and Competition in a Diamond–Dybvig Banking Model

Within the framework of a Diamond–Dybvig model [J. Polit. Econ.91(1983), 401–419], but with explicitly modelling the autarky choice during the planning period, we demonstrate that a mixed strategy bank run equilibrium that does not rely on sunspots may coexist with the sunspot run equilibrium previously studied in the literature. In a version of the model with multiple banks, there exist sequential equilibria that imply positive profits. However, the zero-profit contract in which runs never occur can be supported as the unique equilibrium outcome if the agents play pure strategies only and their beliefs are restricted to be consistennt with a forward induction argument.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: C72, G21     

Equilibrium Partner Switching in a Bargaining Model With Asymmetric Information

We study a model in which the seller of an indivisible object faces two potential buyers and makes an offer to either of them in each period. We find that the seller's ability to extract surplus from them depends crucially on the value of the cost of switching from one buyer to the next. If the seller is pessimistic about the buyers' valuations and there is a switching cost, however small, then the market is a natural bilateral monopoly; the second buyer is never called on. If the switching cost is zero, or if the seller is optimistic, then switching, and possibly recall of the original buyer, may occur.     

基于异质消费群体的生态供应链网络均衡模型

文章针对不同消费者对新产品、再制造产品存在效用异质性的情况,构建了一个由制造商和消费者市场组成的两层生态供应链超网络模型,优化目标为经济效益最大化、环境影响和风险最小化。考虑环境规制及产品的可再造比例对整个供应链绩效的影响,利用网络均衡理论描述不同主体的独立行为和主体之间、产品之间相互影响的竞争行为。数据分析结果表明,系统整体效益以及企业对产品可再造比例的选择很大程度上取决于产品创新效率和政府补贴方式。