Facts & figures: Public sector and GDP: Some international comparisons; Local authorities and the law: Selected legal precedents

We are indebted to Alastair Gray, of the Open University, for much of the statistical analysis on which this article is based.     

Pointers: Pay; Housing; NHS; Regional policy; Public expenditure; Industrial support; US deficits

Using performance indicators to drive improved service delivery and cost‐effectiveness has been a recognized management technique in the public sector for many years. Most managers are now convinced of the possible benefits, at least in theory. Reality, though, is much less encouraging. Partial coverage, poor implementation and unrealized expectations are still the norm. Yet the potential for radical improvement by making the most of performance measurement is even greater than most people would believe. The question is how to unlock this potential.     

Facts & figures: Public sector as employer: The disables; Pay and disputes in the NHS

Management buy‐outs provide an extra option for the restructuring of State enterprises. However, as with other privatisations, they may generate problems and measures may need to be taken to ensure that the public interest is not damaged in the long term.     

Debate: More adult training in Britain; Tax‐farming and BAA; NHS pay review bodies

Strategic planning is often associated with radical organizational shifts. Sometimes, these are in response to rapid changes in the environment. Frequently, however, they are a result of changes in management values and style. There may, however, be circumstances when going for a series of small wins is a more appropriate strategy than going for one big win.     

Facts & figures: Public sector pay: The last ten years

Next Steps: Improving Management in Government? Edited by Barry J. O'Toole and Grant Jordan (Dartmouth Publishing Company, Aldershot, 1995). £37.50. ISBN 1 855 21491 1.

The Myth of Democratic Failure. By Donald Wittman (University of Chicago Press, Chicago; distributed by John Wiley, Chichester, 1995). £23.95. ISBN 0 226 90422 9.

Managing Change in the New Public Sector. Edited by Roger Lovell (Pearson Professional, Southport, 1995). £32.50. ISBN 0 582 23893 5.     

A Note on Credit Risk of Vertical <Emphasis Type="Italic">Keiretsu</Emphasis> Firms: Preliminary Evidence from the Japanese Automobile Industry

This paper empirically examines the relationship between the credit risk of Toyota, Nissan and Honda keiretsu-affiliated firms and the credit risk of the respective parent company. As credit spread data for keiretsu-affiliated firms were not available we create a keiretsu default index, as a proxy, using expected default probabilities obtained from the KMV and Leland and Toft (J. Finance 51, 987–1019, 1996) option pricing models. We find parent credit spreads do not Granger cause our keiretsu default index and vice versa in a bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework.JEL classification: G3, L62     

Facts & figures

Public sector pay is in a state of flux. In the Civil Service, under a regime of tight running cost controls, Departments have been obliged to look for flexible pay solutions to their specific recruitment and retention problems. Geographical pay variations and the introduction of performance pay each have apart to play in getting better value for money out of the paybill.     

Authors’ Reply: Two Paradigms for the Market Value of Liabilities - Discussion by David F. Babbel; Michael Cohen; J. Peter Duran; Luke N. Girard; Thomas S.Y. Ho; Craig Merrill

Abstract

In this article, we express a concern that certain commonly accepted methods of predicting mortality will likely prove to be inadequate in the future. Specifically, the Lee-Carter method, which overall has been empirically successful, uses auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) technology and contains no structural mortality equation. This structure means that no information other than previous history can be introduced. We argue that rapid advances in medical science are taking place and that failure to reflect this information in our projection methodology will make resulting projections unsuitable.     

Facts & figures

The National Audit Office are emerging as a force for change in management reform in the Civil Service. Their pivotal position, poised between Whitehall and Westminster, gives them a responsibility for ensuring that change is informed by the need to retain public support. The Office's validation is important and provides central government with an incentive to get things right.     

Financial & economic review

This is an expanded version of an article by Sue Ward in TRANSPORT UK 1985.     

Author’s Reply: Principal Applications of Bayesian Methods in Actuarial Science: A Perspective - Discussion by Marjorie A. Rosenberg; M. Mendoza; Francisco José VáZquez-Polo; James C. Hickman; Donald A. Jones; Enrique de Alba; David P. M. Scollnik

Abstract

This paper considers the pricing of equity-indexed annuities (EIAs). Traditionally, the values of the guarantees embedded in these contracts are priced by modeling the underlying index fund while keeping the interest rates constant. The assumption of constant interest rates becomes unrealistic in pricing and hedging the EIAs since the embedded guarantees are often of much longer maturity. To solve this problem, the authors propose an economic model that has the flexibility of modeling the underlying index fund as well as the interest rates. Some popular EIAs are illustrated to assess the implication of the proposed model.     

New development: The practical relevance of public sector accounting research; time to take a stand

ABSTRACT

This article discusses three major themes that challenge researchers to focus more on practice-relevant public sector accounting research: How to combine practice-oriented research with being an impartial scholar? Which types of research themes have practical relevance? How can research contribute to societally-relevant issues?     

Smart Monte Carlo: various tricks using Malliavin calculus

Abstract

Current Monte Carlo pricing engines may face a computational challenge for the Greeks, not only because of their time consumption but also their poor convergence when using a finite difference estimate with a brute force perturbation. The same story may apply to conditional expectation. In this short paper, following Fournié et al (Fournié E, Lasry J M, Lebuchoux J, Lions P L and Touzi N 1999 Finance Stochastics 3 391-412), we explain how to tackle this issue using Malliavin calculus to smoothen the payoff to estimate. We discuss the relationship with the likelihood ratio method of Broadie and Glasserman (Broadie M and Glasserman P 1996 Manag. Sci. 42 269-85). We show by numerical results the efficiency of this method and discuss when it is appropriate or not to use it. We see how to apply this method to the Heston model.     

Accrual mispricing: Evidence from European sovereign debt crisis

PurposeThis paper examines the accrual anomaly on the European market and the impact of the financial crisis on its dynamics.Design/methodology/approachUsing a sample of public European firms, during the period 2005-2016, this paper follows Sloan (1996) seminal work and measures accruals as Dechow, Sloan and Sweeney (1995).FindingsThere is no evidence that accrual anomaly persists on European markets. The study shows that, contrary to previous research, investors are not underweighting the accrual component of earnings and that accruals are not a good predictor of future stock returns.Research limitations/implicationsOur study has two limitations. First, due to the lack of data, the original sample was reduced to about one third. Second, results must be interpreted carefully since the sample period may be seen as an outlier case attributed to the crisis. Research on future years may unveil a conclusion on this.Practical implicationsResults suggest that transaction costs and idiosyncratic risk are no longer a barrier to investors. Results also point toward a possible new outcome in investor´s behaviour during crisis. Economically, given the lower returns that can be obtained on today markets, it makes sense that investors may reduce their risk aversion levels to get more returns.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the ongoing debate about accruals anomaly and market efficiency. To the best of our knowledge, it provides an original contribution to the literature by framing the accrual anomaly during the European debt crisis.     

Real-time market microstructure analysis: online transaction cost analysis

Motivated by the practical challenge in monitoring the performance of a large number of algorithmic trading orders, this paper provides a methodology that leads to automatic discovery of causes that lie behind poor trading performance. It also gives theoretical foundations to a generic framework for real-time trading analysis. The common acronym for investigating the causes of bad and good performance of trading is transaction cost analysis Rosenthal [Performance Metrics for Algorithmic Traders, 2009]). Automated algorithms take care of most of the traded flows on electronic markets (more than 70% in the US, 45% in Europe and 35% in Japan in 2012). Academic literature provides different ways to formalize these algorithms and show how optimal they can be from a mean-variance (like in Almgren and Chriss [J. Risk, 2000, 3(2), 5–39]), a stochastic control (e.g. Guéant et al. [Math. Financ. Econ., 2013, 7(4), 477–507]), an impulse control (see Bouchard et al. [SIAM J. Financ. Math., 2011, 2(1), 404–438]) or a statistical learning (as used in Laruelle et al. [Math. Financ. Econ., 2013, 7(3), 359–403]) viewpoint. This paper is agnostic about the way the algorithm has been built and provides a theoretical formalism to identify in real-time the market conditions that influenced its efficiency or inefficiency. For a given set of characteristics describing the market context, selected by a practitioner, we first show how a set of additional derived explanatory factors, called anomaly detectors, can be created for each market order (following for instance Cristianini and Shawe-Taylor [An Introduction to Support Vector Machines and Other Kernel-based Learning Methods, 2000]). We then will present an online methodology to quantify how this extended set of factors, at any given time, predicts (i.e. have influence, in the sense of predictive power or information defined in Basseville and Nikiforov [Detection of Abrupt Changes: Theory and Application, 1993], Shannon [Bell Syst. Tech. J., 1948, 27, 379–423] and Alkoot and Kittler [Pattern Recogn. Lett., 1999, 20(11), 1361–1369]) which of the orders are underperforming while calculating the predictive power of this explanatory factor set. Armed with this information, which we call influence analysis, we intend to empower the order monitoring user to take appropriate action on any affected orders by re-calibrating the trading algorithms working the order through new parameters, pausing their execution or taking over more direct trading control. Also we intend that use of this method can be taken advantage of to automatically adjust their trading action in the post trade analysis of algorithms.     

Author’s Reply: Statistical Independence and Fractional Age Assumptions - Discussion by Cecil Nesbitt; Elias S. W. Shiu; Serena Tiong,January 1997

Abstract

This paper addresses the problem of the sharing of longevity risk between an annuity provider and a group of annuitants. An appropriate longevity index is designed in order to adapt the amount of the periodic payments in life annuity contracts. This accounts for unexpected longevity improvements experienced by a given reference population. The approach described in the present paper is in contrast with group self-annuitization, where annuitants bear their own risk. Here the annuitants bear only the nondiversifiable risk that the future mortality trend departs from that of the reference forecast. In that respect, the life annuities discussed in this paper are substitutes for reinsurance and securitization of longevity risk.     

Authors’ Reply: Forecasting Social Security Actuarial Assumptions - Discussion by John A. Beekman; Cecil J. Nesbitt; Krzysztof M. Ostaszewski; Gregory Savord; Richard S. Foster,October 1997

Abstract

This study provides an economic analysis of life insurance company expenses and develops a methodology for the construction of benchmark expense factors. These benchmarks can facilitate the pricing of new business, cost control within companies, and expense comparisons among companies. We derive the expense factors by estimating a cost function wherein total general expenses are modeled as a function of input prices and physical outputs, and the physical outputs are proxies for the cost drivers of the different lines of business. This methodology has two important advantages: first, the derived expense factors are independent of the methods that insurers use in allocating total expenses across lines of business. Second, the estimated cost function explicitly accounts for different degrees of economies of scale and consequently in the present value of marginal expenses across insurers. Hence, this study demonstrates that economies of scale and, in turn, size must be considered when constructing an expense table.     

Positive asymmetric information in volatile environments: The black market dollar and sovereign bond yields in Venezuela

PurposeWe test the informational efficiency of Venezuelan USD sovereign bond yields when the black market exchange-rate premium (BMERP) changes.DesignWe use a non-parametric, asymmetric, Granger causality test to test our hypothesis.FindingsWe find that the bond market with less than or equal to 5 years of maturity seems to be efficient when good news is released on the BMERP. However, this market is not informationally efficient, and when combined with unbiased bad news regarding the BMERP, arbitrage opportunities are created.Originality/valueCapital controls that restrict free exchange-rate mechanisms create arbitrage opportunities with negative news as opposed to positive news.     

Pricing credit derivatives under incomplete information: a nonlinear-filtering approach

This paper considers a general reduced-form pricing model for credit derivatives where default intensities are driven by some factor process X. The process X is not directly observable for investors in secondary markets; rather, their information set consists of the default history and of noisy price observations for traded credit products. In this context the pricing of credit derivatives leads to a challenging nonlinear-filtering problem. We provide recursive updating rules for the filter, derive a finite-dimensional filter for the case where X follows a finite-state Markov chain, and propose a novel particle-filtering algorithm. A numerical case study illustrates the properties of the proposed algorithms.     

Authors’ Reply: Corporate Hedging in the Insurance Industry: The Use of Financial Derivatives by U.S. Insurers - Discussion by L. Lee Colquitt; Arlette C. Wilson; Gray G. Venter; Morton Lane; Joan Lamm-Tennant,January 1997

Abstract

This paper studies the joint distribution of the time of ruin, the surplus immediately before ruin, and the deficit at ruin. The time of ruin is analyzed in terms of its Laplace transforms, which can naturally be interpreted as discounting. Hence the classical risk theory model is generalized by discounting with respect to the time of ruin. We show how to calculate an expected discounted penalty, which is due at ruin and may depend on the deficit at ruin and on the surplus immediately before ruin. The expected discounted penalty, considered as a function of the initial surplus, satisfies a certain renewal equation, which has a probabilistic interpretation. Explicit answers are obtained for zero initial surplus, very large initial surplus, and arbitrary initial surplus if the claim amount distribution is exponential or a mixture of exponentials. We generalize Dickson’s formula, which expresses the joint distribution of the surplus immediately prior to and at ruin in terms of the probability of ultimate ruin. Explicit results are obtained when dividends are paid out to the stockholders according to a constant barrier strategy.