Adaptive planning and uncertainty resolution

The article discusses uncertainty resolution and the approaches to uncertainty in planning. Statically perceived uncertainty may be described more or less explicitly in decision making. Stating various possible outcomes and, possibly, their numerical probabilities may allow quantitative theory to be applied. However, there will be a residual of genuine uncertainty due to the limits set by the available information. By “buying” more information the decision maker can decrease the genuine uncertainty. It is also often possible to reduce uncertainty by waiting. The most effective way is to state the expectations explicitly and to let the various future states of information correspond to alternative decisions in a conditional strategy. This requires a new kind of forecast that refers to the development of information available. A less efficient mode of planning can still take into consideration the fact that revisions are expected. This is flexible planning in a wide sense.     

Buying real options - Valuing uncertainty in infrastructure planning

For the last two decades real options thinking has been heralded as a new approach for handling uncertainty in investment decisions. However, application of the approach in infrastructure investment decision-making is negligible thus far. In this contribution we address the question: what are the barriers for the implementation of the real option approach (ROA) in practice? We focus on the experiences in several infrastructure-bound sectors: spatial planning and transport, ports, and energy.We conclude that the ROA maturity levels of these different sectors are quite different, and we ascribe these differences to the political setting, the institutional setting and the organisational flexibility of the sectors and their stakeholders. We suggest that the same issues apply to other advanced, quantitative methods.     

Debate: The need for procurement risk management

Improvement boards offer a new approach to supporting stronger performance by public service organizations, and especially those facing significant issues of change. They involve formalized peer challenge and support by senior politicians and managers from other agencies. The authors document early experiences with improvement boards in local government and draw conclusions for policy and practice. Improvement boards will have the most impact where the organization's leadership already has some understanding of the performance improvement task, and is able to position the board as part of a wider strategy for change.     

A multi‐agent‐based hybrid framework for international marketing planning under uncertainty

The increased complexity and competition in the global marketing environment present new challenges to decision‐makers. The characteristics of the international marketing planning problem are clarified in this paper. The advantages and disadvantages of relevant techniques and technologies that may be applied to deal with the planning problem are analysed. A multi‐agent‐based hybrid intelligent framework for international marketing planning and associated Internet strategy formulation is then established, with underlying techniques, technologies, software architecture and integration method outlined. In addition, a software prototype of the hybrid framework, called AgentsInternational, is created and presented, with initial evaluation results reported. Further work on this topic is also planned. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.