A hard landing for the ‘New Economy’? Information technology and the United States national system of innovation

This paper discusses the probability of a hard landing for the US economy. It argues that information and communication technology (ICT) has not changed the fundamental nature of the business-cycle and the instability of investment behaviour. It analyses some of the strengths of ICT in the United States, but suggests a resemblance between ICT and previous waves of diffusion of new technologies, notably the boom of the 1920s.     

Money power of Capital and Production of ‘New State Spaces’: A View from the Global South

An array of innovative financial and monetary institutional and policy initiatives recently emerged across the Global South at various spatial scales: (1) the deployment of national ‘self-insurance’ strategies such as large foreign reserve accumulation, different forms of capital controls, and currency market interventions; (2) the multiplication of bilateral, sub-regional, and regional financial and monetary mechanisms, including currency swaps and reserve-pooling arrangements, credit lines, bilateral aid, and development finance; and (3) a growing participation and assertiveness in multilateral financial arrangements. After critically reviewing the existing literatures – the international political economy (IPE) of ‘policy space’ and the IPE of ‘financial statecraft’ – the paper deploys a ‘scalar-relational’ critical IPE approach and interprets these policy initiatives in terms of a crisis-driven production of ‘new state spaces’ across the Global South, in the context of the current period of credit-led capital accumulation. The paper argues that this process has been characterised by the contradictory extension, intensification and growing complexity of the tasks taken on by the capitalist state at various scale levels, resulting in the increasing entanglement of state power in the nested hierarchy of monetary relations, from the global scale to bodies and subjectivities.     

Marcelo Diamand’s contributions to economic theory through the lens of the classical Keynesian approach: a formal representation of unbalanced productive structures

Abstract:

We examine both conceptually and in formal terms the contributions by the structuralist economist Marcelo Diamand, which all revolve around the notion of unbalanced productive structure, and its implications on income distribution, the general price level, and output dynamics in Latin American countries, with a special focus on Argentina. We argue that Diamand’s work provides a very useful framework to understand why institutionally and historically determined real wage and real exchange rates can, on the one hand, explain the relatively low productivity of the industrial sector and, on the other hand, cause devaluations to be both inflationary and contractionary, as has been the case in many Latin American countries that attempted to initiate an industrialization process by import substitution.     

A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of Capital Controls: Spain, 1986–1990 *

This Paper offers a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of capital controls in Spain during the period 1986-1990. The analysis is based on a portfolio-balance model Previously estimated for the Spanish economy, where the complete elimination of capital controls is simulated. Our results suggest that capital controls would have avoided a net capital outflow amounting to nearly a 4 per cent increase in the Spanish net foreign asset position, as a quarterly average, during the first five years of Spanish membership into the EU. [C32, F21, F36]     

Aggregate production functions,growth economics,and the part‐time tyranny of the identity: a reply to Felipe and McCombie

A recent paper by Jesus Felipe and John McCombie argues that I have understated the importance of the value added identity for conventional estimates of production relationships. This reply seeks to clarify the areas of agreement and disagreement. It suggests that the problems raised by the accounting identity are genuine and deserve to be more widely known, but Felipe and McCombie have sometimes exaggerated the scope of the argument.     

Towards an understanding of the geopolitics of cyberspace: Learning,re‐learning and un‐learning

Spiegel classifies the world's states as high‐tech, nationalistic, or transitional in character, along with some fluidity. His thesis is that ‘traditional geography’ has declined in importance in international politics and has been replaced by information and communications technologies (ICT). He seems unaware of recent developments in political geography, especially to the manner in which geographers consider space, cyberspace and ICT. Territory is one element of political space; others include identities, networks, regionalism, transboundary processes and non‐state actors in regional and global politics.     

A research on the evolvement of industrial structure and economic growth of He＇nan Province, China

This paper, based on the investigation of the statistics in the years of 1980-2005, using Shift-Share Method model, studies systematically the relation between the evolution of industrial structure and regional economic growth in five economic regions in He＇nan to offer the foundation of policy for optimizing the industrial structure and promoting regional economic development in phase, and thereby comes to the conclusions： （1） the industrial structure level of He＇nan, in comparison with the evolution of the industrial structure across the country, remains low, but yet the evolutional tendency of industrial structure in He＇nan complies with the Clark taw of the industrial structure evolution; （2） the spatial difference of He＇nan industrial structure evolution is comparatively large, （3） the evolution of industrial structure in He nan that influences economic growth can be categorized into three types： in eastern and southern regions, the shift-share of the industrial structure is negative, and the shift-share model of competitiveness is negative, in western and central regions, the shift.share of the industrial structure is positive, and the shift-share model of competitiveness is positive; in northern regions; the shift-share of the industrial structure is positive, and the shift-share model of competitiveness is negative： （4） the evolution of industriai structure influences greatly the development of the regional economy of He nan As the results of the researches shown, it can innovation of He＇nan tra：ditional industry with high-tech the vast development of the tertiary industry, the expansion of He＇nan overall level o industrial structure, the growth of deep-processing manufacturing of agricultural products, and the increase of He＇nan agricultural products subsidiary value Will be the strategic choices of the rearrangement of He＇nan industrial structure.     

Wealth,Capital and the Theory of Distribution: Some Implications for Piketty’s Analysis

Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century (2014) has been spectacularly successful. One reason for this is that while it often challenges received views and supports a non-apologetic interpretation of capitalism, at the same time it relies on mainstream economics. This theoretical framework, however, is not always conducive to consistency and interpretative accuracy. This paper points out some of the book’s analytical weaknesses and shows that some empirical evidence, a clearer distinction between wealth and capital, and a different theoretical perspective, could lead to questioning some of the book’s claims. In particular, it argues that the increase in the wealth-to-output ratio (but not the capital-to-output ratio) cannot explain the observed changes in income shares. It also contends that non-mainstream perspectives on income distribution and growth suggest that changes in income distribution are due more to policy and power relations than to the factors Piketty identifies.     

Technological Backwardness in Agriculture: Is it Due to Lack of R&D,Human Capital,and Openness to International Trade?

This paper investigates the relationship between the agricultural technological level and R&D expenditures, human capital, and openness to international trade using cross-country information for a sample of 104 countries and various subsamples over the period 1961–91. The unobservable technological level is modeled as a dynamic process in the context of a general translog production function. The results suggest that the technological gap between developed and less developed countries in agriculture increased considerably over this period of time. Overall, the technological levels are directly related to R&D expenditures, human capital, and openness, although this relationship is not robust across different groups of countries.     

Balance of payments,the Harrod foreign trade multiplier and economic growth: the European and North American experience, 1970–85

This paper examines the assoication between Canadian unions and their member' attitudes. Data on job satisfaction indicate that unionized workers in Canada are less happy with the quality of their jobs than non-union workers. The former, however, are more satisfied with their financial compensation and job security than non-members.     

From the Encyclopédie to the Tableau économique : Quesnay on freedom of grain trade and economic growth

This paper investigates the evolution of Quesnay's economic thought between his Encyclopédie articles and the first edition of the Tableau économique. The rediscovery of a forgotten piece Quesnay included in an agricultural treatise — the Essai sur l'amélioration des terres — leads us to reconsider the origins of the first edition of the Tableau. This forgotten piece of writing is the missing link between Quesnay's first economic writings and the Tableau. It improves on the theory of grain trade liberalization Quesnay presented in his first writings on two levels. First, it reconstructs of his previous argument in order to give it a more coherent shape. Second, this text complements the Encyclopédie articles by a growth mechanism. Through a reconstruction of Quesnay's growth mechanism, we show that his argument is a significant analytical step toward the first edition of the Tableau.     

UK business cycle synchronization with Germany and the US: New evidence from time–frequency domain and structure of economic growth

This article uses a time–space approach to check the UK business cycle synchronization with Germany and the US. As a novelty, we consider the co-movements in terms of economic growth rate structure. In line with the existing studies, we discover that the UK business cycle is more synchronized with the US then with Germany, and that the co-movements have intensified lately. We also show that co-movements are reduced in terms of business cycle structure and are time–frequency-dependent. Finally, we point out that the UK business cycle became more synchronized with the US cycle given the contribution of investments and external balance to the real growth rate.     

Effects of changes in outputs and in prices on the economic system: an input–output analysis using the spectral theory of nonnegative matrices

The (physical) output adjustment model and the price adjustment model are presented. By the two models we quantitatively analyze the influences of alterations of one sectoral (physical) gross output and of one sectoral price on another sectoral (physical) gross output and on another sectoral price, respectively. Hence, a basic nature of the Ghosh inverse and a fundamental character of the monetary Leontief inverse are obtained. The proposition that a matrix of intermediate output (input) coefficients alters if the vector of output (price) adjustment coefficients is nontrivial holds, if and only if this matrix is C-irreducible. It is impossible that (i) the adaptation of output system causes all sectoral final output rates (or input multipliers) either to rise or to fall collectively, or (ii) an adjustment of price system causes all sectoral value-added rates (or output multipliers) either to increase or to decrease jointly. However, maybe (i) a change of output system enables some sectoral final output rates (or input multipliers) to rise (fall) and all others to be constant, and (ii) an alteration of price system enables some sectoral value-added rates (or output multipliers) to increase (decrease) and all others to be fixed, whose necessary and sufficient condition is that the matrix of intermediate output (or input) coefficients has at least one non-final (or non-initial) class. The proposition that the vector of final output rates (or input multipliers) changes if the vector of output adjustment coefficients is nontrivial is true, if and only if the matrix of intermediate output coefficients has only one final class. The proposition that the vector of value-added rates (or output multipliers) alters if the vector of price adjustment coefficients is nontrivial holds, if and only if the matrix of intermediate input coefficients has only one initial class. The necessary and sufficient conditions and the matching economic explanations for possibility and uniqueness of the economic adjustment that enables (i) all sectors to have a uniform final output rate (or input multiplier), and (ii) all sectors to have the same value-added rate (or output multiplier) are respectively given. I would like to thank an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Atoms,Bits, and Wits: A New Economics for the Twenty-First Century—Part II

Learning also affects the organization of economic activity as a “force locomotif” of growth. Bounded rationality opens a theory of planning horizons as an ordinal measure of wits. The realm of wits shines a novel light on the nature of interdependence, since the balance of substitution and complementarity is horizonal: longer and broader horizons shift this balance away from substitution in favor of complementarity, augmenting concerts of interest over conflicts in social relations. Atoms, bits, and wits are modeled to show why substitution only applies to short-run atoms; a case for complementarity rises from both increasing returns and bits, where wits strengthen the case for cooperation as efficient. With complementarity, competition—not collusion—stifles output. The social and institutional implications of this are addressed theoretically in this paper.     

Depoliticisation,the Management of Money and the Renewal of Social Democracy: New Labour's Keynesianism and the Political Economy of ‘Discretionary Constraint’

Pointing to its radical underpinnings in so-called ‘Open Marxism’ and its theory of the state (one that subsumes the state in the capital relation), this article critically scrutinises Peter Burnham's thesis of ‘depoliticisation’ as a dominant accumulation strategy and regime. The article identifies ambiguities around Burnham's depiction of New Labour in power as committed to depoliticisation. It addresses these by drawing a distinction between regime of accumulation and mode of regulation, characterising New Labour's political economy in terms of the latter as a form of depoliticised Keynesianism framed by ‘discretionary constraint’. Contra-Burnham, the article points to the continued efficacy of Keynesian and social democratic political agency in the context of a dialectic of depoliticisation and repoliticisation focused on the role and power of the state. This dialectic is symptomatic of the contested regulation of capitalism around the defence of the value of money, on the one hand, and its broader management and redistribution, on the other.     

Atoms,Bits, and Wits: A New Economics for the Twenty-First Century—Part I

Part I: Three elementary components of economics are atoms, bits, and wits. The economics of atoms is familiar to economists, in the production of physical outputs treated as substitutes in consumption. The relation of value to scarcity with atoms is that abundance reduces the worth of material goods. The realm of bits is less understood; the issues appear in network effects, where abundance augments the worth of intangibles. The economics of networks is social: conflicts of interest (substitution) are balanced with concerts of value (complementarity) in combination. But in information networks—the realm of bits—substitution cedes to complementarity and competition defers to cooperation as efficient.