Structuring technological information for technology roadmapping: data mining approach

Most research on technology roadmapping has focused on its practical applications and the development of methods to enhance its operational process. Thus, despite a demand for well-supported, systematic information, little attention has been paid to how/which information can be utilised in technology roadmapping. Therefore, this paper aims at proposing a methodology to structure technological information in order to facilitate the process. To this end, eight methods are suggested to provide useful information for technology roadmapping: summary, information extraction, clustering, mapping, navigation, linking, indicators and comparison. This research identifies the characteristics of significant data that can potentially be used in roadmapping, and presents an approach to extracting important information from such raw data through various data mining techniques including text mining, multi-dimensional scaling and K-means clustering. In addition, this paper explains how this approach can be applied in each step of roadmapping. The proposed approach is applied to develop a roadmap of radio-frequency identification (RFID) technology to illustrate the process practically.     

A visual scanning of potential disruptive signals for technology roadmapping: investigating keyword cluster,intensity, and relationship in futuristic data

Technology roadmapping of today’s era is necessarily based on comprehensive scanning of various signals with the disruptive potential in future paths of market, product, and technology. Previous attempts of data-driven technology roadmaps have mainly focused on data from such sources as patents and literatures. However, as these sources catalogue posteriori trends of evolution, roadmaps based on these data cannot be counted on to predict disruptions. In this regard, futuristic data in technology foresight websites may provide a better source. The objective of this research, in response, is to develop a support system for technology roadmapping that uses futuristic data. To this end, we suggest keyword-based visual scanning approach involving three keyword maps, used in succession: keyword cluster map, keyword intensity map, and keyword relationship map. Particularly, keyword intensity map is designed using weak signal theory which can help identify the visibility, diffusion, and interpretation of signals.     

Dealing with the dynamics of technology roadmapping implementation: A case study

Nowadays, companies are facing many challenges. The product life cycle is getting shorter while the complexity and the demand for product customization are increasing. Technology Roadmapping (TRM) has been widely used as a strategic management tool to help organizations in effectively identifying potential products or services for the future, determining proper technology alternatives, and mapping them with resource allocation plans. With the completion of TRM implementation, any organization can be assured that its required technologies and infrastructures will be ready when needed. Implementing TRM as a part of the ongoing strategic/business planning process is challenging because it may affect the organizational work process, structure, and culture. Therefore, an organization needs to understand how the changing roles and responsibilities of key players involved in the TRM process match with the dynamics of TRM implementation in each stage. This paper illustrates the dynamics of TRM implementation and presents a case study to demonstrate how one of the leading building product manufacturers in the ASEAN region went through the process.     

Roadmapping a disruptive technology: A case study: The emerging microsystems and top-down nanosystems industry

If technological roadmapping is important in the process of rapid technology commercialization, and if a method tailored to roadmapping nascent disruptive technologies does not exist, and if these very same disruptive technologies portend to be the future economic engines for firms, countries, and regions, then there is cause for concern. This article seeks to shed some light on the process in industrial disruptive technology roadmapping by focusing on the fundamental differences between sustaining and disruptive technologies. This article investigates the utility of theoretical and practitioner traditional technology roadmapping tools in an international industrial roadmapping effort focusing on microtechnology and top-down nanotechnology. I then modify the traditional technology roadmapping approaches generating a model for an industrial worldwide disruptive technology roadmapping process. I utilize the International Industrial Microsystems and Top-Down Nanosystems Roadmap (IIMTDNR) effort, which included nearly 400 people, from nearly as many firms, from over five continents and was developed over a 5-year period. The IIMTDNR process is used to provide the basis for a model for a commercial disruptive technology roadmapping process.     

Nanotechnology as general-purpose technology: empirical evidence and implications

Developments in nanotechnology are poised to have a pervasive effect on various industries for years to come and nanotechnology management research is beginning to appear in peer-reviewed management journals. Much of the research on this early, emergent technology is focused on issues of definition and identification of technology type. In this study, we searched the US Patents and Trademarks Office database and used an expert validation methodology to develop a sample of the first 25 years (1980–2004) of nanotechnology patenting activity. We analysed this data for early evidence that nanotechnology is a general-purpose technology (GPT) – a transformative technology characterised by its pervasiveness, improvement over time, and pattern of diffusion. Our findings indicate that nanotechnology patenting activity has been growing in intensity and relative to overall patenting activity, and that it is pervasive across industry and technology sectors. Implications of nanotechnology as a GPT are discussed.     

A technology opportunities analysis model: applied to dye-sensitised solar cells for China

Technology opportunities analysis (TOA) can support policy-makers or managers in making strategic technical decisions so as to enhance their technological innovation capability and international competitiveness. This paper presents a multi-level framework to support and systematically identify technological opportunities. Patent data as a key component of technology innovation are used to enable TOA within the framework in the present research. At the research and development (R&D) level, we anticipate the directions of technology development based on technology morphology. Countries’ development emphases can also be investigated in order to help identify their R&D strengths and weaknesses and to seek promising development pathways. At the level of competition, we devise the assignee-technology analysis to obtain insight into competitive participants’ technical emphases and intents. It is also used to explore possible collaboration opportunities among them. At the market level, we apply patent family analysis to understand countries’ target markets and to assess prospects for the commercialisation of their technology. We pursue TOA to explore China's opportunities and challenges in dye-sensitised solar cells. The empirical case analysis supports the effectiveness of the TOA model. We believe it can be adapted well to fit other emerging technologies.     

Patent text mining and informetric-based patent technology morphological analysis: an empirical study

Patent technology morphological analysis utilises the advantages of both patent information analysis and morphological analysis to provide more detailed information on current and future patent technology. Current patent technology morphological analysis methods are largely reliant on manual expertise in the construction of morphological boxes with few approaches to the evaluation of future morphological configurations. We developed a patent text mining and informetric-based patent technology morphological analysis technique. We defined the basic parameters of the morphological box as the factors in factor analysis, with a patent keywords matrix, and the clusters in clustering analysis with factor scores. Patent citation, year of patent registration, keyword frequency, and contributing factors were used to evaluate future morphological configurations. We used an empirical study of liquid crystal display wide viewing angle patents to validate our method. The Thomson Reuters Derwent Innovation Index was used to collect patent text datasets. Our study indicates that this method is feasible for the implementation of patent technology morphological analysis. Our method provides advantages in terms of cost and time reductions during morphological box construction and more flexible methods for evaluating morphological configurations. We discuss problems and possible development of our method in the last section.     

Risk premium,macroeconomic shocks,and information technology: an empirical analysis

This study empirically identifies the impact of various macroeconomic factors on the default risk premium. Using monthly data for the period 1970–2010 for the US, our estimations indicate that the monetary policy aggregates, risk-free interest rate, term structure of interest rates, inflation, and the state of the business cycle influence the risk premium. The results also provide some evidence in support of the hypothesis that the development of information technology has had a decreasing impact on the risk premium. As expected, various financial crises have had substantial and long-lasting effects on the premium. The results suggest that the direct impact of the subprime crisis and Lehman’s collapse on the risk premium was as large as two and a half percentage-points for a sustainable period. Foreign financial crises, in turn, have lowered the risk premium in the US market, suggesting a flight-to-safety phenomenon.     

Technology diffusion theory revisited: a regulation,environment, strategy,technology model for technology activation analysis of mobile ICT

Theory on the diffusion of mobile information and communication technology (ICT) is mainly focused on technology diffusion, while prerequisites to such diffusion are largely disregarded or taken for granted. Moreover, few constructs for the assessment of technology diffusion take into account the inherent link between technology and strategy analysis. This study proposes that analysing what comes prior to diffusion and use of technology – here defined as ‘technology activation’ – is equally important, so as to identify external, not user-related determinants that enable or hinder a value proposition based on the new technology. To fill the existing gap and extend technology diffusion theory upstream, the limitations of the technology–organisation–environment model and of other technology diffusion models are reviewed, together with external strategy analysis models, and an original model is proposed to address four macro-determinants that affect technology activation: Regulation, environment, strategy, technology (REST). The REST model is then applied to the Italian mobile location-based services market, to qualitatively validate its comprehensiveness. Conclusions are drawn on the opportunities to extend the mobile technology diffusion analysis process upstream, and to integrate technology analysis with existing research on strategy analysis, thus providing new momentum to mainstream research on innovation diffusion.     

Organisational change, technology, employment and skills: an empirical study of French manufacturing

This paper analyses the correlations between technological change,organisational change and skill change using a survey on organisationalchange in manufacturing firms conducted in 1993. Considerablediversity is allowed for in terms of the measure of technologicaland organisational change, and the analysis shows a positivecorrelation between technological change and reorganisations,whatever their types. The paper then analyses the relationshipsbetween these changes and the employment behaviour of firms.It shows that changes in the required skills and in the occupationalstructure of firms are more closely connected to organisationalthan to technological change. Although organisational changeaffects the work content and skill requirements of blue collarworkers, it is mainly indirect workers that are affected interms of the number employed. Finally, the analysis shows thattechnology tends to stabilise the workforce whereas the movetowards the model of ‘flexible enterprise’ favoursits renewal.     

A technology replacement model with variable market potential — An empirical study of CRT and LCD TV

The rapidly changing economic environment and increasingly fierce competition indicate that companies must innovate in both their products and marketing strategies if they are to continue to flourish. Specifically, the ability to accurately predict the demand for products is crucial when firms decide to allocate their resources, especially in the fast moving high technology industries, where there is very high investment in R&D and production facilities. This study establishes a forecast model for technology replacement based on the diffusion model with population growth used for the variable market potential. The proposed model is then applied to investigate the CRT and LCD TV market.The results suggest that the new model is more accurate than the constant market potential model in fitting and forecasting performance. Consumers who purchase a TV for the first time are likely more attracted to LCD TV rather than CRT TV. As for those individuals who already own a CRT TV, the attraction is not strong enough to encourage them to replace their current CRT TV with a new LCD TV. Moreover, it is noted that the falling price of LCD TV is an essential factor in encouraging purchases.     

Innovation forecasting: A case study of the management of engineering and technology literature

The following paper contributes to the methodology of innovation forecasting. The paper analyzes the literature of engineering and technology management. A brief history and justification for interest in engineering and technology management is presented. The field has a sixty year history of interdisciplinary, and is therefore a ripe source for closer investigation into time trends of knowledge. The paper reviews the literature of innovation forecasting, examining a range of theoretical and methodological literatures interested in the evolution of knowledge. A new application of a model, suitable for sparse and count-like publication data, is presented. A mathematical presentation of the model is offered. A discussion is offered on how the model may be implemented in an approachable way within spreadsheet software. A time history of engineering management literature is extracted from a database and analyzed using the model. A projection of keyword growth is offered, and key features of the emerging knowledge base within engineering management are discussed. Recommendations for future research, as well as for those monitoring the status of the discipline of engineering management, are made.     

International diffusion of embodied and disembodied technology: A network analysis approach

This study proposes a quantitative method for investigating the structure of international technology diffusion. By using network analysis, this study defines the structural configuration of each country within the international diffusion network by measuring its degree, closeness, and betweenness centralities. In addition, this study distinguishes between embodied technology diffusion, measured by multilateral trade, and disembodied technology diffusion, measured by patent citations, in individual countries. This study empirically tests a sample data set of international technology diffusion taken from 48 countries. The empirical results show that the structural configuration of countries exhibits similar patterns in both embodied and disembodied diffusion networks. Significant global stratification patterns exist in the capability of national international technology exportation and brokerage advantages. Moreover, this study distinguishes four blocks of countries that play different roles in international technology diffusion: the leading countries provide a source of technological knowledge; an intermediate group diffuses the knowledge acquired from the source; a third group is in the process of initiating the export of technological knowledge; and a final group of countries absorbs technological knowledge without reciprocal exportation. Finally, this study identifies two types of catch-up strategies that newly industrialized or developing countries can use to move up the international technology stratification.     

A trivariate model of participation,fertility and wages: the Italian case

Italy has unusually low fertility by OECD standards, accompaniedby unusually low female participation in paid work. This paperaddresses the issue of the empirical relationship between fertility,female participation in the labour market and wages with theseItalian 'peculiarities' as a backcloth. A trivariate model ofparticipation, fertility and wages has been constructed andestimated using three pooled cross-sections of Italian microdata, allowing for the identification of cohort effects. Thismodel follows a 'purist' approach: the participation and fertilitydecisions, as well as the wage equation, are modelled as completelyjoint. The cohort effects turn out to be significant: the pointestimates do not appear to confirm actual trends, which arenegative for fertility and positive for participation. The femalewage is the most important variable influencing the propensityto have children and the propensity to participate in the labourmarket, casting doubt on suggestions that observed trends arethe products of shifts in women's 'tastes'.     

New technology and old institutions: An empirical analysis of the skill-biased demand for older workers in Europe

Using panel data from nine European countries over the period 1970 to 2007, we examine the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) on the demand for older workers (aged 50 and over). We find evidence of a decrease in demand for older workers in the 1970s and 1980s. It can be argued that the impact of ICT on demand for older workers is skill-biased. However, the skill-biased demand for older workers is mainly reflected in the skill-biased changes in employment shares rather than relative wages. There is some evidence of a gradual deskilling of older workers. We find that labour market institutions such as the national minimum wage, social pacts on wage issues and union density mostly benefit skilled older workers, while coordination of wage setting, extension of collective agreements, social pacts on pensions and centralisation of wage bargaining can alleviate the adverse effects of skill-biased technological change.     

A grey dynamic model for the evaluation of regional sustainable development and its empirical study

Currently, traditional development issues, such as economic stagnation, as well as new challenges like environmental degradation and globalization, need attention. Sustainable development, including economic, environmental, and social elements, is a main goal of decision-makers. The key to sustainable decision-making is to evaluate and forecast the status quo of sustainable development. Policy makers need a tool based on scientific information to forecast the effects of future actions on sustainability and make policies for sustainable development. This paper analyzes the relation of the economy, environment and social welfare by the grey dynamic model. The proposed method uses time series and basic indicators of ecological system, including economic, environmental and social sub-systems. It is applied to Heilongjiang Province and Jiangsu Province. The results have proved different status quo of sustainable development in these two regions, and suggestions are proposed, such as optimization of industrial structure and eco-industrial development. The conclusion is that there is no unique sustainable path, and accordingly, policy makers should choose different criteria and strategies to make efficient sustainable decisions for each region.     

Localized technological change, new information technology and the knowledge-based economy: The European evidence

This work analyzes the co-evolution of new information and communication technologies and the knowledge-intensive business industry. New information technology affects the actual conditions of information, its basic characteristics of appropriation and tradability, favouring the role of business services as forces of interaction between knowledge components in the generation of new technology. Empirical analyses, based on input/output statistics of the European economy in the second half of 1980's, demonstrate the existence of a correlation between the usage of business and communication services and confirm their high output elasticity.     

多元化并购、资源基础与制造企业服务化转型——基于fsQCA的多案例分析

为探究制造业企业通过并购实现服务化的转型路径,以2014—2018年制造企业并购服务企业并购事件为研究对象,运用组态思维和fsQCA方法,选取“基于并购的资源获取”和“并购后资源整合”两个维度的5个前因条件,讨论前因变量组合与制造业服务化转型之间的复杂因果机制。结果表明,制造业服务化转型存在3条转型路径,即研发能力驱动型、财务能力驱动型和服务化经验驱动型。通过分析路径和典型案例,发现：并购标的企业的盈利能力与研发能力均能衡量服务型资源质量且二者具有替代效应;并购方财务柔性在并购后整合与服务化转型中具有重要作用;并购方服务化经验有助于并购后整合。     

Combining tech-mining and semantic-TRIZ for a faster and better technology analysis: a case in energy storage systems

Understanding and anticipating the evolution of technologies is an increasingly complex task attributable to the interdisciplinarity of the technology and the explosion of information about the research and patent activity. By combining the capabilities of tech-mining in identifying and in highlighting trends, weak signals, with those of semantic-TRIZ (Teoriya Resheniya Izobreatatelskikh Zadatch – Theory of Inventive Problem Solving) in identifying the functions, its causes and effects, a better understanding of the trends may be obtained in a shorter time. An interesting trend in the use of graphene in cathode materials, as well as its applications, mainly to enhance the conductivity and the discharge and recharge of the Li–air battery, has been quickly assessed as a result of the combined techniques. Another two cases, the increased presence of nanostructures in cathodes and the emergence of LIFePO₄ in the lithium–ion batteries have been also analysed in a short time. The results may predict the good possibilities of the combination of these two evolving techniques.     

Coopetition for radical innovation: technology,market and business-model perspectives

Coopetition (collaboration between competing firms) is used in many contemporary industries to achieve various innovation-related benefits. However, there is still a lack of consensus in the existing literature as to whether it is beneficial in the case of radical innovations or whether it only supports incremental improvements due to the similarity of knowledge bases among competitors. We address this issue in an empirical study based on a cross-industrial survey in Finnish markets. The study focuses on three types of technological coopetition and on their effect on the technological, market and business-model radicalness of the firms’ innovations. The results show that coopetition is negatively related to technological radicalness and positively related to business-model radicalness. The implications are that coopetition is likely to benefit incremental technological development over time and to promote the emergence of radical business-model innovations as competitors seek to differentiate their offerings.