On the size of fiscal multipliers: A counterfactual analysis

We point out that fiscal multipliers derived from SVAR-models include the predicted future path of policy instruments. After the initial shock, net taxes and government expenditures react to each other and are autocorrelated. In a counterfactual simulation, we report fiscal multipliers that abstract from these dynamic responses.     

Patent disclosure requirements and benefit sharing: A counterfactual case of Morocco's argan oil

This article uses the seemingly promising case of Morocco's argan oil to assess the value of patent disclosure requirements (PDRs) as a policy instrument aimed at improving the sharing of biodiversity benefits. After introducing the disclosure requirements debate and discussing relevant features of the argan oil case, I construct a simple counterfactual by asking: “How would PDRs have changed benefit sharing in the argan oil case?” From this case, three practical considerations emerge that shed a realistic, if cautious, light on the marginal value of PDRs as a benefit sharing mechanism: (1) PDRs require an accompanying national biodiversity regime but their relative value is inversely proportional to regime strength (2) PDRs should be assessed based on the additional compliance incentives they provide and median, not blockbuster, patent values and (3) the alternative to no PDRs and no regime is not zero benefits. While these considerations are inherently country-specific, PDRs should generally be assessed at the margin rather than in vague conceptual and aggregate ways.     

German Monetary Union: An historical counterfactual analysis

This paper views German Monetary Union as a sequence of large asymmetric shocks to the European economies. As such it can be analysed with a large, new-Keynesian macro-econometric model of the relevant economies such as NiGEM. The ‘news’ in the sequence of shocks is assessed by analysing contemporary, NiGEM based, forecasts, and important events are then ‘peeled-off’ in reverse order. The resulting counterfactual history analyses the effects of the collapse of the Soviet economy on the EC and Scandinavian economies, and it is argued that the recession in countries such as Finland was not primarily caused by trade effects. The costs of support programmes for East Germany are then removed, creating a negative fiscal shock. Finally the paper analyses the overall effects of the set of shocks. In each part of the counterfactual history, individuals from forward looking expectations and the authorities operate fiscal solvency rules and target monetary aggregates.     

Evolutionary economics and the counterfactual threat: on the nature and role of counterfactual history as an empirical tool in economics

Counterfactual conditional statements are ubiquitous in any scientific endeavour. This paper contains an analysis of the nature of counterfactual conditionals and the conditions under which they are considered assertable by scientists. The paper then applies this analysis to the use of counterfactuals in evolutionary economics, arguing that because evolutionary economics is inherently concerned with historical processes it cannot avoid the use of counterfactual history as one of its tools of empirical analysis. We discuss the strengths and pitfalls of counterfactual history. We argue that because evolutionary economics starts from the foundation that randomness may be inherent in any economic system, the very aspects of evolutionary economics that make counterfactual history a desirable empirical tool also make that tool difficult to employ. RID="*" ID="*" We thank the participants of the International Seminar on Evolutionary Economics as a Research Programme in Stockholm, May 1997, for many helpful comments. We also thank Lorri Baier for many helpful substantive and textual comments. Correspondence to: R. Cowan     

我国海洋资源价值及其开发的经济学分析

海洋资源是发展海洋经济的重要物质基础,其价值主要体现为海洋经济的快速发展而对国民经济增长产生巨大推动力量。但由于对海洋资源的价值存在低估现象,我国海洋资源开发仍然存在着诸如粗放经营以及海洋环境持续恶化等许多问题。文章从经济学角度分析并总结了产生上述问题的原因,提出了促进海洋资源可持续利用的建议。     

A counterfactual analysis of the Argentinian monetary transformation in 2002

A hard peg restored economic stability in Argentina during the nineties but made it also vulnerable to real shocks in so far as the economy was highly dollarized. A devaluation in 1998 in Brasil, its main partner, damaged the Argentinian competitiveness and resulted in a fall in export demand. There was a need for a real adjustment but removing the peg would have implied large balance sheet effects and raised serious financial issues. This article endeavours to learn a lesson about the aftermath of hard peg regime from the Argentinian experience. It is based on a dynamic macroeconomic model to assess the impact of three scenarios, already suggested in the literature. Two hypothetical, a floating regime and dollarization and one which was actually implemented in 2002, the pesification of the whole economy. The simulations suggest that pesification was the only scenario with unambiguous expansionary effects.     

A method for implementing counterfactual experiments in models with multiple equilibria

This paper proposes a homotopy method for implementing counterfactual experiments in empirical models with multiple equilibria. A key assumption is that the equilibrium selection function does not jump discontinuously between equilibria as we continuously change the structural parameters.     

Poverty decompositions with counterfactual income and inequality dynamics

Traditional poverty accounting decomposes changes in a country's poverty headcount ratio into changes in income and inequality. We argue that this approach is unsatisfactory from the perspective of policy analysis because it compares a country in two points of time without taking the country's initial situation, and hence its potential for poverty reduction, into account. We thus suggest comparing traditional poverty decompositions with a counterfactual situation. This counterfactual indicates what a country starting from its initial situation could be expected to achieve in terms of income, inequality, and, hence, poverty developments. We construct those counterfactuals by modeling income and inequality trends characterized by convergence and a “Kuznets” relationship between inequality and development. Parameters in those relationships are estimated using PovcalNet survey data from 144 countries and we construct our counterfactual poverty predictions for 71 developing countries. While there is overall a tight relationship between actual developments and counterfactuals, we identify several cases, where both deviate from each other and discuss the policy implications. We also check for commonalities in differently performing countries and find that those who fell particularly short of expectations often underwent political transition and state fragility.     

论价值源泉与决定的双重泛化暨剥削多样化

机器是劳动者肢体和大脑的延伸、模拟、外化和独立,不仅传动劳动,更重要的是替代劳动创造价值。包括劳动自然力在内的各种形态的自然力耗费的凝结构成商品价值实体,自然力作用时间的长短决定价值量的大小;未来生产中直接劳动作用的下降必然导致价值源泉的多元化;现有各种价值论的有机整合构成“双泛化”价值论。实际存在的多种剥削方式无需要借助劳动价值论来说明,要素价值论同样能证明资本主义剥削。劳动价值论无助于劳动者的解放。把理论问题上升为政治问题不利于学术的正常发展。     

Monetary policy evaluation. A counterfactual analysis based on dynamic factor models

This article complements the recent literature analysing the effects of the unconventional monetary stimuli applied after the Great Recession by proposing an intuitive and easy-to-implement method to evaluate different exit strategies towards a traditional monetary context. This approach, useful for central bankers or researchers interested in the effects of tapering, allows us to evaluate the consequences of a given monetary policy path on the future evolution of key macroeconomic indicators. The results based on this methodology provide a measurement of the differences in economic performance under contractionary and expansionary policies and support the recent success of monetary stimuli in boosting real indicators while having little effect on inflation.     

超组织视角下的员工价值与顾客价值

随着知识经济时代的来临,组织环境日趋复杂,灵活多变,超组织经营理念应运而生.在这一经营理念下的员工价值、顾客价值及企业价值内涵都发生了变化,其相互关系也更加复杂和系统化.员工在组织获取与维持竞争优势中扮演着十分重要的角色,顾客则成为组织应对越来越剧烈的全球市场竞争的关键环节.本文立足于超组织视角,对员工价值与顾客价值进行了全新的界定,并对其相互关系进行了深入分析,提出了知识经济条件下企业创造和平衡员工价值与顾客价值的战略指导思想.     

The impacts of China’s exchange rate regime reform in 2005: A counterfactual analysis

This paper empirically evaluates the impacts of China’s exchange rate regime reform in 2005 on its macroeconomy. We propose to use a new counterfactual policy evaluation method that is robust to the choice of control group. Using the new method, we find that China’s exchange rate regime reform in 2005 mildly reduces the Consumer Price Index, has a substantial damping effect on export, significantly increases employment, and has negligible impact on industrial production.     

现存皇家园林资源的价值考察与开发策略

中国历代王朝都建有自己的皇家园林,由于历史的沧桑巨变,现存的皇家园林数目已极少,但它们都是宝贵的历史文化遗产,蕴涵着丰富而又深厚的价值。本文总结了现存皇家园林的五大价值,并在此基础上探讨了对现存皇家园林资源进行开发的策略。     

Value of public goods from sports stadiums: the CVM approach

Many state and local governments have subsidized the construction of arenas and stadium for the use of professional sports teams. They often justify the subsidies by claiming the projects generate valuable public goods and positive externalities, though such benefits are difficult to measure. This article reports an application of the contingent valuation method (CVM) to measure the value of public goods generated by two proposed projects in Lexington, Kentucky: a new basketball arena for the University of Kentucky and a minor league baseball stadium. Neither project would generate sufficiently valuable public goods to justify public financing. Although the results cannot be generalized to other cases, they do shed light on some of the main issues involved, and they demonstrate the feasibility of applying CVM to the evaluation of the subsidized stadiums.     

知识利用与知识开发:多角化的学习观

多角化是战略管理和国际企业管理领域中的一个重要研究课题.关于它的主流研究大都基于交易成本经济学和PENROSE理论。在总结上述理论缺陷的基础上,以知识利用与知识开发为主导,从组织学习的角度提出了一个新的多角化理论研究框架。     

论"价值辐射"--对一种土地价值理论的思考

针对土地价值理论中的“土地价值辐射论”，本文以“市场价值论”为分析工具，从八个方面阐述产生“价值辐射”的原因；并分析能够产生“价值辐射”的产品的特点、“价值辐射”的方式，以及应当怎样认识“价值辐射”所产生的“价值增值”现象和“增加收益”应当支付给谁的问题。     

Policy Rules for Exploitation of Renewable Resources: A Macroeconomic Perspective

A fundamental problem for an economy based on a common property resource is the absence of a market to trade the resource. This implies that private costs will be below social costs. This paper investigates possible government interventions that correct for such distortions in a neoclassical growth model with a production externality in harvesting. The model predicts that the welfare of the representative household increases considerably when a Piguovian tax is implemented. The policy that replicates the command optimum is highly complex and changes over time. On the other hand, a large share of the maximum welfare increase is internalized by introducing a constant quantity tax, suggesting that the potential of such policies is high.     

Peacekeeping: A strategic approach

This paper presents a theoretical model of conflict between two players, with intervention by a peacekeeping force. Peacekeepers are treated as a military contingent, capable of taking sides, acting as a third (independent) side in the war or remaining inactive, depending on circumstances. This departs from previous models, in which peacekeeping was no more than a parameter affecting players' fighting costs. The main result is an optimal deployment strategy by peacekeepers, detailing the nature and level of intervention required under different circumstances; this strategy results in the lowest possible level of warfare between the two antagonists. The credible threat of force (rather than mere intervention) is the strategy's key component.