对中央关于国有股和法人股可适当流通政策的探讨

由于占2/3的国有股和法人股不能流通，使我国股票市场上存在着同股不同权、同股不同利的现象，严重影响了我国股市的资本运作效率，也阻碍了国企改革的进一步深化，在此背景下党中央在十五届四中全会上作出了国有股减持的决定，笔者将对这一政策进行深入分析及提出一些相应的实施建议。     

The sensitivity of the credit default swap market to financial analysts’ forecast revisions

We examine the impact of analysts’ earnings per share (EPS) and cash flow per share (CPS) forecast revisions on the market for credit default swaps. We find that while the issuance of both EPS and CPS forecast revisions are inversely associated with changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads, cash flow forecast revisions have a larger effect. We demonstrate that the relationship between CPS forecast revisions and CDS spreads tends to be stronger in cases of financial distress. We provide evidence that cash flow forecasts dominate earnings forecasts in some situations and that participants in the CDS market discriminate between analysts' forecast revisions and recommendation changes.     

What Role Taxes and Regulation? A Second Look at Open Market Share Buyback Activity in the UK

This paper re-examines the evidence on open market share repurchase activity reported by Rau and Vermaelen (2002) for the UK. Using data from the Securities Data Corporation (SDC), Rau and Vermaelen conclude that the level of repurchase activity is trivial. They attribute the low repurchase volume to regulatory restrictions that limit companies' ability to take advantage of an undervalued stock price and conclude that the bulk of repurchase activity that does occur is driven by the desire to generate tax credits for pension funds. Using data collected from a variety of sources, we find that the SDC substantially understates UK open market buyback activity. Based on our more comprehensive dataset we conclude that (a) pension funds' tax considerations are not the primary cause of UK share repurchases and (b) despite the prevailing regulatory environment, underpricing still represents an important determinant of repurchase activity.     

Do Acquirers Manage Earnings Prior to a Share for Share Bid?

Abstract:  Earnings management by acquirers ahead of share for share bids may affect whether a bid succeeds, and hence which management team controls the target's assets, as well as the distribution of gains between target and acquirer shareholders. This paper tests for such earnings management for the UK, the world's second largest takeover market, in the period 1997–2001 when M&A reached record levels and share for share deals came to account for the majority of expenditure. Using a range of approaches originating in Jones' model, the paper finds evidence consistent with earnings management ahead of share-financed bids.     

Interactions among China-Related Stocks

This paper explores the issue of causalities among five different indices of shares issued by Chinese firms, A and B Shares listed in the Shenzhen and Shanghai Stock Exchanges, and H Shares listed in the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. By measuring cross autocorrelations and conducting Granger causality tests, we found that the causality relationships among the five different indices went through significant changes after early 1996; B Shares became more influential relative to the other shares. B Shares in China have tended to lead H Shares in Hong Kong since 1996. Although A Shares tended to lead B Shares before 1996, such relationships either disappeared or were reversed after 1996.     

关于股权分置改革问题的思考

股权分置改革是我国资本市场的一场根本性的制度变革。从2005年股改正式启动至今虽取得了一些成效,但也存在着一些问题。2006年是股改的关键年,一些经营绩效较差的上市公司也将在年内完成股改。有效地进行股权分置改革,对于推动中国证券市场的健康发展具有重要的现实意义。     

Costa咖啡在中国市场SWOT分析及市场目标(英文)

咖世家咖啡是英国最大的咖啡零售公司,本身具有对外扩张的优势。但是在中国的市场进军问题上,遇到消费者接受度低,市场占有率低等问题。因此,为顺利开展对华市场的扩大,咖世家需要采取相应的策略。本文旨在分析咖世家在华市场优势劣势和机遇威胁,以及肯定未来的市场目标。同时给咖世家的市场管理提供更好的市场结构定位建议。     

Single-stock futures: Evidence from the Indian securities market

Although single-stock futures (SSFs) are useful multi-purpose stock derivatives, they have not received much attention in developed markets. We analyze SSFs in the Indian market to understand their contribution in price leadership. The findings indicate that trades in the stock market contribute more to price discovery than trades in the SSF market (72% and 28%, respectively), while quotes in the SSF market are more price innovative than quotes in the stock market (39% and 61%, respectively). Our analysis suggests that while stock and SSF trade returns have predictive ability for each other, in the case of quotes, only SSF quotes have predictive ability for stock and SSF returns.     

制度环境、股权分置改革与决策有用性

基于中国证券市场股权分置改革的制度背景,结合地区制度环境,从会计规则内外部执行机制耦合的角度,运用盈余信息含量和价值相关性的经验模型,本文首次研究了制度环境与股权分置改革两者共同对会计信息决策有用性的影响。研究发现:地区制度环境越好、股改对价越低的上市公司,其会计信息的决策有用性越高。本文对国内关于股权分置改革的会计信息经济后果研究进行了一定程度的拓展,并结合地区制度环境对会计信息质量的考察提供了一种崭新的研究视角。     

市场份额不应是认定垄断的惟一标准

我们习惯于根据市场份额的大小判断垄断是否成立,而事实上"市场"是个弹性概念,需要放到特定的市场结构当中,结合消费者的选择余地、产品的需求弹性、潜在竞争及技术创新等因素加以考量才具有意义;判断垄断的过程其实就是一个搜寻竞争者的过程。     

The persistence of earnings per share

The persistence of innovations to accounting earnings per share, EPS, has important implications for equity valuation, yet it remains a largely neglected subject. This paper employs various empirical tests in order to measure the persistence of shocks to EPS for the S&P 500 index. Within the I(0)/I(1) paradigm the empirical evidence rejects the I(1) specification, supporting instead a trend-stationary representation. When fractional orders of integration are considered, the results indicate that the detrended series is long memory (d  >  0) and mean reverting (d < 1). The responses decay slowly to zero, albeit 50 quarters after an initial shock the responses remain significantly different from zero. Likewise, the variance ratio evidence suggests that the effect of a shock persists over time spans characteristic of the business cycle.

The Explanatory Power of Canadian Accounting Measures of Earnings Dilution*

This paper examines the properties of the accounting measures of dilution under pre‐2001 Canadian GAAP. Fully diluted earnings per share (EPS) presents investors with a per‐share figure that attempts to capture the maximum potential dilution that would occur if all dilutive convertible securities were converted and all dilutive stock options and rights exercised. We examine how the difference between basic and fully diluted EPS, which we refer to as the dilutive adjustment, affects the ability of EPS to predict one‐period‐ahead EPS. Moreover, we address the issue of the explanatory power of changes in the dilutive adjustment for unexpected stock returns over the year and at the earnings announcement date. Surprisingly, in contrast with the traditional accounting view that increases in the dilutive adjustment present the investor with bad news due to potential dilution of the future earnings stream, the dilutive adjustment is positively related to next period's earnings and increases in the dilutive adjustment are positively correlated with contemporaneous long‐window stock returns. These results can be attributed to the relation between the dilutive adjustment and the earnings process combined with a partial resolution of the uncertainty attached to growth firms. We find no evidence that investors use information from the disclosure of fully diluted EPS at the earnings announcement date. These results are consistent with increases in the dilutive adjustment capturing the partial realization of a firm's growth potential that more than outweighs the potential dilution attached to the convertible securities; however, this information appears to be already embedded in price prior to the disclosure of fully diluted EPS.     

On-market share buybacks, exercisable share options and earnings management

Chan et al. (2006b ) suggest that managers might announce a share buyback to manipulate investors’ perceptions and capitalize on the positive price reaction usually associated with the announcement. The incentive to do so is greater when managers have exercisable options. Prior studies document that managers engage in upwards earnings management for opportunistic reasons related to option holdings (Bergstresser and Philippon, 2006). We examine the association between earnings management and exercisable option holdings for buyback firms to investigate if earnings management in the pre‐buyback period is greater for firms with equity incentives to increase share price. Our results, using 138 buybacks over the period 1996–2003, support our prediction. We find that buyback firms with both exercisable options that are in‐the‐money prior to the buyback announcement as well as options that are exercised in the buyback period have higher discretionary current accruals than buyback firms with no exercisable options, unexercised options or with out‐of‐the‐money options. Overall, our results are consistent with buyback firms with exercisable options using earnings management and buyback announcements to maximize option payoffs, and buyback firms without exercisable options signalling undervaluation.     

Theory, Pragmatism and Conservatism in Reflecting the Effects of Warrants on Diluted EPS

The American, British and Canadian professional accounting bodies have prescribed methods for calculating earnings per share which are materially different. The aim of this paper is to determine which of the three methods is most compatible with finance theory with particular reference to the effects of dilution. Only the Canadian method can be shown to be theoreticaly sound.     

股权收购中的法律尽职调查研究

随着全球金融危机的爆发,我国企业兼并浪潮也拉开序幕,股权收购已成为企业并购的重要方式之一。为了减少和避免并购风险,股权收购方越来越重视法律尽职调查。然而目前的法律尽职调查存有较多问题。难以达到收购方的预期目的,亟待完善。本文首先简要的介绍法律尽职调查的要领和种类,然后研究其在股权收购中的重要性及存在的问题,最后提出相关的建议。     

Dividends versus Share Repurchases Evidence from Canada: 1985–2003

This paper provides out-of-sample evidence on the payout policy in Canada during the 1985–2003 period. First, we show that the proportion of nonfinancial firms paying dividends has decreased, while the proportion initiating repurchase programs has increased. We also show that Canadian firms paying dividends and repurchasing shares are extremely concentrated. Second, we focus on the factors that could affect the choice between repurchases and dividends. We find that dividends and repurchases are used by different types of firms. While we do not confirm the financial flexibility hypothesis, our results are consistent with the substitution hypothesis after controlling for selection bias and endogeneity.     

Underpricing, Overhang, and the Cost of Going Public to Preexisting Shareholders

Abstract:  IPO underpricing has been extensively studied; however, its impact on the wealth of preexisting shareholders has not been closely examined. We address the question of whether or not periods of high underpricing adversely affect preexisting shareholders. We find that high levels of underpricing are associated with increased share retention, which effectively offsets much of the potential cost. Overall, we find that the percentage of shareholder wealth lost is surprisingly stable over time, unlike underpricing itself. We also find that many factors known to be related to underpricing are not significant determinants of the cost of going public to preexisting owners.     

The Impact of COVID-19 on Share Prices in the UK*

The spread of COVID-19, and international measures to contain it, are having a major impact on economic activity in the UK. In this paper, we describe how this impact has varied across industries, using data on share prices of firms listed on the London Stock Exchange, and how well targeted government support for workers and companies is in light of this.     

基于财务数据的农业股票投资价值研究

在农业板块股票市场中,采用灰色关联度法找出与股票价格相关联的财务指标,并分别建立了对数线性模型与截面数据回归模型检验了每股净资产对股票价格的基础作用。研究结果表明：股票价格与业绩关联性显著,公司财务因素对于股价有着极强的解释能力,每股净资产是股票价格的价值基础。     

对后股权分置时代的划拨国有股充实社保基金的思考

2006年是中国证券市场制度变革年，伴随股权分置问题的解决，证券市场进入了后股权分置时代。目前我国社保基金缺口很大，如何拓宽其筹集渠道、弥补这一缺口？本文从后股权分置时代出发，研究划拔国有股充实社保基金的必要性、紧迫性及操作设想。