Capitalism Unleashed: Finance,Globalization, and Welfare

Andrew Glyn, who died from a brain tumour in December 2007, aged 64, had been a key figure in socialist political economy since the 1970s. His seminal book with Bob Sutcliffe, British Capitalism, Workers and the Profits Squeeze, published in 1972, inspired a generation of political economists. It offered an arresting empirical analysis of the predicament of British capitalism, and occasioned a fierce and wide-ranging debate among socialist economists over its empirical accuracy, its theoretical approach and its political implications. It was one of the first and most important expressions of Ricardian Marxism in the 1970s, emphasising the importance of distributional struggles for the future economic and political development of capitalism.

He was actively engaged in politics and he was always ready to put his intellectual skills to practical use, as during the British miners' strike in 1984–5, when he provided a detailed critical analysis of the economic case being advanced by the employers and the Government against the union. At the same time he sought to understand the trends that were shaping the development of capitalism, and wrote two very influential books, Capitalism Since World War II: the Making and Breakup of the Great Boom (1984, with Philip Armstrong and John Harrison), and Capital Unleashed (2006), his analysis of the recent neoliberal phase of capitalist development.

He will be remembered for his skills as a teacher, his humane and tolerant approach to intellectual debate, and his lasting contributions to our understanding of contemporary capitalism.     

Predicting U.S. jet fighter aircraft introductions from 1944 to 1982: A dogfight between regression and TFDEA

Since its inception in 2001, technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) has been used with a number of applications. This paper presents a formal comparison of TFDEA with a previously published application from Technological Forecasting and Social Change by Joseph Martino. Using the data and multiple-regression model from Martino, we compare results obtained from TFDEA to those previously published. Both techniques predict the first flights of fighter jets introduced between 1960 and 1982 by using first-flight data of aircraft introduced between 1944 and 1960. TFDEA was found to better predict the first-flight dates than the multiple-regression forecast. These results indicate that TFDEA may be a powerful new technique for predicting complex technological trends and time to market for new products.     

Deterministic and stochastic trends in the time series models: a guide for the applied economist

Applied economists working with time series data face a dilemma in selecting between models with deterministic and stochastic trends. While models with deterministic trends are widely used, models with stochastic trends are not so well known. In an influential paper Harvey (1997 Harvey, AC. 1997. Trends, cycles and autoregression. Economic Journal, 107: 192–201. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) strongly advocates a structural time series approach with stochastic trends in place of the widely used autoregressive models based on unit root tests and cointegration techniques. Therefore, it is important to understand their relative merits. This article suggests that both methodologies are useful and they may perform differently in different models. This article provides a few guidelines to the applied economists to understand these alternative methods.     

Environmental Protection and Urban Unemployment: Environmental Policy Reform in a Polluted Dualistic Economy

This paper explores sufficient conditions for the welfare‐improving environmental policy reform in the Harris–Todaro economy. A rise in the pollution tax rate in the urban manufacturing has spillover effects on the two labor market distortions: the less‐than‐optimal manufacturing employment and the urban unemployment. If both are weakened the welfare improves. Otherwise, we need to develop an alternative sufficient condition. It is shown that there exists a range of welfare‐improving pollution tax rates, and that it corresponds to the lower values of tax rate. This range may shrink by the wage subsidy policy and the technological change toward less pollution‐intensive techniques.     

Does energy‐related aid affect emissions? Evidence from a global dataset

Donor countries have been using international aid in the field of energy for at least three decades. The stated objective of this policy is to reduce emissions and promote sustainable development in the global South. In spite of the widespread use of this policy tool, very little is known about its effect on emissions. In this paper we perform an empirical audit of the effectiveness of energy‐related aid in tackling CO₂ and SO₂ emissions. Using a global panel dataset covering 128 countries over the period 1971–2011 and estimating a parsimonious model using the Anderson and Hsiao estimator, we do not find any evidence of a systematic effect of energy‐related aid on emissions. We also find that the non‐effect is not conditional on institutional quality or level of income. Countries located in Europe and Central Asia do better than others in utilizing this aid to reduce CO₂ emissions. Our results are robust after controlling for the environmental Kuznets curve, country fixed effects, country‐specific trends, and time‐varying common shocks.     

Using a distance measure to operationalise patent originality

We introduce a distance measure to operationalise Trajtenberg, Henderson, and Jaffe’s [1997. “University Versus Corporate Patents: A Window on the Basicness of Invention.” Economics of Innovation and New Technology 5: 19–50] originality construct (an ex-ante indicator of firms’ technological capabilities). Our measure captures (1) technological diversity, (2) technology distance from patent antecedents, and (3) degree of novelty per each patented innovation. The V-score measure uses the Derwent World Patent Index system to classify technologies hierarchically – making similarities and differences pronounced. Power is gained by using all of the technology-classification codes describing a focal patent’s claims when calculating whether its technology space was incrementally different or radical from those of its antecedent patents (and identifying whether its technology-class code combinations were commonplace at the time when the patent application was made). Our V-score’s prediction of firms’ performance is contrasted with Hall, Jaffe, and Trajtenberg’s [2001. Hall, B. H., A. B. Jaffe, and M. Trajtenberg. 2001. The NBER Patent Citations Data File: Lessons, Insights and Methodological Tools. NBER Working Paper No. 8498] Herfindahl measure of the same originality construct. Results indicate that the distance measure of technological content produces differently signed results when evaluating patents’ performance effects or predicting a firm’s trajectory.     

Law, state power, and taxation in Islamic history

The ruler's power varied greatly in Islamic history over time and space. We explain these variations through a political economy approach to public finance, identifying factors affecting economic power and its constraints. An influential interest group capable of affecting the ruler's power was the legal community (‘ulamā’). This community could increase the ruler's ability to extract a surplus from the citizenry by conferring legitimacy, thereby lowering the cost of collecting taxes. It could also limit power through legal constraints on taxation. We show how changes in legitimacy and legal constraints affected the economic power of rulers in representative episodes of Islamic history and identify general trends and dynamic processes underlying the relationship between the state and the legal community.     

A systematic literature review of utility weights in wet age-related macular degeneration

Abstract

Objective:

The objective of the study was to conduct a systematic review of utility weight estimates relevant to economic models for wet age-related macular degeneration (wAMD).

Methods:

A systematic literature search of PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and EconLit was performed (January 1995–December 2010) and then updated (October 2010–May 2012; February 2012–July 2013) identifying articles reporting utilities in patients with wAMD and visual impairment. Extracted studies were also assessed for compliance with the NICE reference case.

Results:

Of 2415 articles identified from the searches, 212 articles were reviewed in full, and 17 selected for data extraction. Most studies used time trade-off (TTO) techniques to estimate utilities; other methods included standard gamble, EuroQoL Health Questionnaire 5 Dimensions (EQ-5D); Short-Form 6D Health Status Questionnaire (SF-6D); and Health Utilities Index Mark III (HUI3). Correlation between utility estimates and visual acuity (VA) differed between the instruments. Time trade-off methods were more sensitive to VA changes than standard gamble methods. HUI3 estimates were most highly correlated with VA changes, followed by TTO; no trend was observed between VA and EQ-5D or SF-6D utility weights. Six of the 17 studies complied with the NICE reference case.

Conclusions:

Several instruments have been used to elicit utilities from patients with wAMD. Because TTO methods were more sensitive to VA changes than standard gamble and HUI3 estimates were most highly correlated with VA changes, TTO and HUI3 may be suitable methods for economic evaluations in these patients. The EQ-5D and SF-6D were poor indicators of the impact of VA on HRQL.     

The relationship between temperature and CO2 emissions: evidence from a short and very long dataset

The debate regarding rising temperatures and CO₂ emissions has attracted the attention of economists employing recent econometric techniques. This article extends the previous literature using a dataset that covers 800?000 years, as well as a shorter dataset, and examines the interaction between temperature and CO₂ emissions. Unit root tests reveal a difference between the two datasets. For the long dataset, all tests support the view that both temperature and CO₂ are stationary around a constant. For the short dataset, temperature exhibits trend-stationary behaviour, while CO₂ contains a unit root. This result is robust to nonlinear trends or trend breaks. Modelling the long dataset reveals that while contemporaneous CO₂ appears positive and significant in the temperature equation, including lags results in a joint effect that is near zero. This result is confirmed using a different lag structure and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. A Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach to account for endogeneity suggests an insignificant relationship. In sum, the key result from our analysis is that CO₂ has, at best, a weak relationship with temperature, while there is no evidence of trending when using a sufficiently long dataset. Thus, as a secondary result we highlight the danger of using a small sample in this context.     

Explaining changes in the racial digital divide in the United States from 1997 to 2007

This paper explores the dissemination of access to home Internet among Whites and Blacks in the US, the inequalities observed between the groups (known as the digital divide), the trends exhibited by the two groups in the acquisition of Internet access, and the factors contributing to these disparities. The study focuses on the large and growing digital divide observed among Whites and Blacks in the period 1997–2007. Both the standard and a variant of the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition techniques are employed to identify and quantify the factors that contribute to this gap. In all decompositions, differences in education, family income, household composition, and access to the Internet outside the home are found to be the primary factors that explain the racial digital gap.     

Exploring past and future changes in the ecological footprint for world regions

The Ecological Footprint (EF) has received considerable attention as a useful indicator in the context of sustainable development. So far, it has mostly been applied as a static indicator. Here, we have derived a set of long-term EF scenarios for 17 world regions using the IMAGE 2.2 implementation of the IPCCs SRES scenarios. The scenarios are used to discuss potential trends in EFs in different world regions but also to analyse underlying trends driving changes in the EF. The baseline scenarios show the EF for real land use only (not accounting for CO₂) to increase further in the next few decades in most world regions, being driven by population growth, changes in human diets towards more land-intensive products and overall increases in consumption levels. Future crop yield improvements and technology development will partly offset these trends, resulting in decreasing per capita EFs, but increasing total EFs. In the longer term, EF development may strongly diverge on the basis of assumptions made in the different baseline scenarios (from 5.4 Gha at present to 6.0–8.2 Gha in 2050 depending on the scenario). The aggregated EF following the definition of Wackernagel et al. (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 99 (2002) 9266–9271) (including virtual land for CO₂) increases more strongly, from 12.6 to 20–31 Gha depending on the different scenarios. An alternative scenario was developed to explore whether optimistic assumptions for changes in consumption and production patterns could limit the increase of the global EF, which limited EF increase to 15 Gha in 2050. This scenario still allowed for population growth and strong economic development in low-income regions.     

The burden of blood transfusion: a utilization and economic analysis – a pilot study in patients with chemotherapy-induced anemia (CIA)

Abstract

Objective:

The objective is to measure the burden of blood transfusion of Packed Red Blood Cells (PRBCs) in patients with chemotherapy-induced anemia (CIA) on the institutional outpatient transfusion center.

Methods:

This is a retrospective chart review (starting July 1, 2010, working backwards until 120 evaluable patients are accrued) at a single institutional transfusion center in the US. The mean and standard deviation (SD) were calculated for patient’s age, pre-transfusion Hgb level, and other transfusion-related activities.

Results:

One hundred and twenty records were reviewed. The majority included patients who were female (71%), African American (61%), and had either Medicare (48%) or private insurance (39%). The mean patient age was 59 years and the average pre-transfusion Hgb was 7.9?g/dL. The average patient visit to facility ranged from 213?min for one PRBC unit to 411 minutes for three PRBC units. The mean staff time for patient evaluation was 66 minutes. Actual time for transfusion was ～100?min for each PRBC unit; 90% of patients received two PRBC units. Staff was engaged in direct patient care for an average of 322?min for two PRBC units. The labor cost of transfusion (in 2011 $US) ranged from $46.13–$49.33 per PRBC unit. The estimated fully loaded bundled cost was $596.49 for transfusion of one unit of PRBC. Limitations of the study include: the site included in this study may not be applicable to all sites in practice and the evaluated patient population was varied, with the exception that all patients were treated for some type of malignancy; and the review of blood bank records for 120 patients was not 120 independent events and, as such, may not have adequately captured actual variability.

Conclusions:

This analysis quantifies expense in terms of time for administration of the transfusion, as well as costs associated with outpatient blood transfusions.     

Collaboration for innovation and project failure. A dynamic analysis

The aim of this paper is to investigate the hypothesis that there is a complex and bidirectional relation between collaboration and failure in innovation projects. On the one hand, collaboration in innovative activities may increase the likelihood of project failure. At the same time, the failure in innovation projects may induce the firm to collaborate in order to overcome the problems that determined the failure of innovation projects (induced collaboration). Up to now, we are not aware about the existence of any empirical paper analysing the interaction between these two mechanisms. This paper aims at filling this gap by providing a motivation for the induced collaboration and testing its empirical relevance in a dynamic framework. The empirical analysis is carried out by using two consecutive German Community Innovation Surveys referring to the period 2006–2010. The empirical results support the hypothesis of a bidirectional causal relationship between collaboration and failure.     

International patent analysis as a tool for corporate technology analysis and planning

New, techniques of international patent anabsis are illustrated and resultsfrom preliminary validity tests of these techniques are presented. Indicators of technological activity, technological significance and commercial potential are constructed, and used to analyze fiber-based opto-electronic couplers and monoclonal-antibody-based diagnostic kits at the levels o f the technology, nation and firm. The international patent indicators are found to be closely correlated with R&D expenditures, scientific publications and new product introductions. They also relate to these indicators in ways that moke sense as specified in simple regression models of the innovation process. Comparisons of patent analysis results with expert opinion (for two process technologies) reveal that technology–level analyzes conform quite well with expert opinion, but national – and firm–level analyes vary from a low to a modest correlation with expert opinion. The authors conclude that the techniques can provide important information for corporate technology management, but that studies of additional technologies and further validity tests are needed.     

Subcutaneous vs intravenous rituximab in patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma: a time and motion study in the United Kingdom

Objective:

Rituximab is part of standard therapy for many non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) patients, and is usually administered as an intravenous (IV) infusion. A formulation for subcutaneous (SC) injection will be available from June 2014. A time and motion study was conducted to investigate the staff time and costs associated with administration of SC and IV rituximab.

Research design and methods:

The time and motion study was conducted in three UK centers alongside a phase III trial of SC rituximab in patients with NHL (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01461928). Active healthcare professional (HCP) time spent on the preparation and administration of IV and SC rituximab was recorded and used to calculate the associated costs.

Results:

Total active HCP time associated with administration of IV rituximab was 223.3?min (95% CI?=?218.0–228.7), vs 48.5?min (95% CI?=?45.5–51.6) for SC rituximab, a saving of 174.8?min (95% CI?=?172.5–177.1) per session. Patient time in the treatment room was 263.8?min (95% CI?=?236.6–294.3) for IV rituximab and 70.0?min (95% CI?=?57.1–87.2) for SC rituximab, per session. The SC formulation reduced total mean staff costs by £115.17 (95% CI?=?98.95–136.93) per session. Differing monitoring scenarios during infusion consistently showed time and cost savings for SC rituximab.

Limitations:

Study limitations include the non-interventional design and lack of statistical power, and the investigational nature of SC rituximab. The data collected did not account for patient and center characteristics and variability on active HCP time.

Conclusions:

SC rituximab was associated with reduced active HCP time and costs vs IV rituximab, as well as reduced patient time in the treatment room. Switching from IV to SC rituximab could increase treatment room capacity and patient throughput, as well as improving the patient experience.     

Economic impact of switching from metoprolol to nebivolol for hypertension treatment: a retrospective database analysis

Objective:

To estimate the real-world economic impact of switching hypertensive patients from metoprolol, a commonly prescribed, generic, non-vasodilatory β₁-blocker, to nebivolol, a branded-protected vasodilatory β₁-blocker.

Methods:

Retrospective analysis with a pre–post study design was conducted using the MarketScan database (2007–2011). Hypertensive patients continuously treated with metoprolol for ≥6 months (pre-period) and then switched to nebivolol for ≥6 months (post-period) were identified. The index date for switching was defined as the first nebivolol dispensing date. Data were collected for the two 6-month periods pre- and post-switching. Monthly healthcare resource utilization and healthcare costs pre- and post-switching were calculated and compared using Wilcoxon test and paired t-test. Medical costs at different years were inflated to the 2011 dollar.

Results:

In total, 2259 patients (mean age: 60 years; male: 52%; cardiovascular [CV] disease: 37%) met the selection criteria. Switching to nebivolol was associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of all-cause hospitalization (?33%; p?p?p?p?p?Conclusions:

This real-world study suggests that switching from metoprolol to nebivolol is associated with an increase in medication costs and significant reductions in hospitalizations and outpatient visits upon switching, resulting in an overall neutral effect on healthcare costs. These results may be interpreted with caution due to lack of a comparator group and confounding control caused by design and limitations inherent in insurance claims data.     

A game of timing and visibility

We consider the following abstraction of competing publications. There are n players in the game. Each player i chooses a point x_i in the interval [0,1], and a player's payoff is the distance from its point x_i to the next larger point, or to 1 if x_i is the largest. For this game, we give a complete characterization of the Nash equilibrium for the two-player game, and, more important, we give an efficient approximation algorithm to compute numerically the symmetric Nash equilibrium for the n-player game. The approximation is computed via a discrete version of the game. In both cases, we show that the (symmetric) equilibrium is unique. Our algorithmic approach to the n-player game is non-standard in that it does not involve solving a system of differential equations. We believe that our techniques can be useful in the analysis of other timing games.     

DOES POPULATION AGEING PROMOTE FASTER ECONOMIC GROWTH?

Can divergent demographic trends account for differences in per capita output across countries? We address this question by offering evidence that the process of population ageing is positively and significantly related to cross‐country economic performance. We define and estimate the effect of demographic change in two ways. First, a growing cohort of working age persons (15–64) as a share of the total population is found to have a large positive effect on GDP per capita. Second, an increase in the number of prime age persons (35–54) relative to the younger working age population (15–34) is found to have a positive but curvilinear effect with respect to per capita GDP. We find that changes in per capita GDP peak when the ratio of the prime‐to‐younger age population reaches an optimum of prime age workers for every younger aged worker. Beyond or below this optimal ratio, per capita output is lowered.