Economics of the crisis and the crisis of economics

Abstract

The macroeconomic instability revealed in the recent deep recession steams from the condition of balance sheets. Generally high leverage and strained maturity mismatches build up slowly but generate a financial structure so brittle that the impulse that eventually sends it crashing is hard to identify. The US financial system had been rendered more vulnerable by the financial reforms that swept away the Glass-Steagall regulations. The crisis made the inadquancies of the ruling macroeconomic paradigm painfully obvious. DSGE models generally did not include a financial sector and did not take the possibility of dramatic instability seriously. Unanticipated violations of budget constraints do not fit easily into general equilibrium models.     

Financial Instability and the Credit Crunch of 1966

In an article in this journal, Edwin Dickens criticizes the financial instability hypothesis of Hyman Minsky. He contends that ''financial instability theorists'' explain the financial crisis in the US in 1966 as due to the forced sale of securities by commercial banks, but that the 1966 crisis was not due to such sales. Therefore, he says that Minsky's financial instability hypothesis is contradicted. In contrast, this article argues that the 1966 crisis was initiated by the sale of securities by banks, but that such a development was not due to increased financial fragility, and thus was not a necessary aspect of the financial instability hypothesis. While the specifics of the 1966 crisis are somewhat of an exception, the general pattern of financial crisis in the postwar period in the US is powerfully explained by Minsky's financial instability hypothesis.     

An Institutionalist Framework for a Consistent Financial Regulation

Abstract:

In the light of recurrent systemic crises that financialized market economies have been experiencing since the 1980s, this article seeks to determine the conditions required for a regulatory framework apt to ensure financial stability. Drawing upon an Institutionalist Minskyian endogenous financial instability approach, the article studies the fragilities of liberalized finance and points to some policy alternatives able to lead to an alternative financial regulatory model that is consistent with macroeconomic stability. It argues that in a weak regulatory environment financial markets naturally generate instabilities that could turn into systemic crises. The analysis maintains that in order to deal with such crises, a tight supervision should be framed under the aegis of public authorities and suggests some rules to develop a relevant regulatory system through an open and democratic decision process. Two points then deserve particular attention: a macro-prudential approach that regards instability as a systemic (non-individual) issue, and a preventive approach that aims at preventing systemic-risk generating activities from taking control over the markets.     

Financial and Capital Account Liberalization,Financial Development and Economic Development: A Review of Some Recent Contributions

Abstract

This article presents a review of some recent contributions on the relation between global finance and economic development in emerging economies. It first, stresses the growing consensus among economists on the financial instability that financial and capital account liberalization can possibly cause in emerging economies. It then outlines and compares two alternative strategies to tame such instability. The comparison is between the “good-institutions need-to-come-first” approach put forward by some mainstream economists, and the request for a deeper reform of the existing monetary system advocated by heterodox economists.     

Volatility transmission between stock and foreign exchange markets: a connectedness analysis

ABSTRACT

This paper empirically investigates volatility transmission among stock and foreign exchange markets in seven major world economies during the period July 1988 to May 2018. To this end, we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to measure the total volatility connectedness in the entire period (the system-wide approach). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate the net directional connectedness for each market. To gain further insights, we examine the time-varying behaviour of net pair-wise directional connectedness during the financial turmoil periods experienced in the sample period Our results suggest that slightly more than half of the total variance of the forecast errors is explained by shocks across markets rather than by idiosyncratic shocks. Furthermore, we find that volatility connectedness varies over time, with a surge during periods of increasing economic and financial instability.     

Marx,Finance and Political Economy

ABSTRACT

Shortly after the publication of Volume I of Capital, the financial requirements of capitalist enterprise forced the financial innovation of bond and stock finance for joint stock companies. Marx intended to re-write Capital in order to incorporate this change. He did not achieve this. The economic analysis of capitalism with long-term finance was undertaken by Hilferding in his Finance Capital. Thereafter, a strand of economic analysis of production and distribution emerged in the work of the Austro-Marxists, Veblen, Keynes, Kalecki, Steindl and Sweezy, and the Italian Kaleckians, Joseph Halevi and Riccardo Bellofiore, which incorporated the change made to the structure and dynamics of capitalism by long-term finance. However, this shift in capitalist financing has largely been ignored in economic theory, while much of the heterodox analysis that seeks to challenge the role of finance in contemporary capitalism has not integrated finance consistently. The change from the classic capitalism to finance capital raises important questions about the meaning and relevance of Marx’s work today.     

Beliefs about Exchange‐Rate Stability: Survey Evidence from the Currency Board in Bulgaria

Abstract

Currency pegs seldom achieve full credibility even after delivering low inflation and a stable exchange rate for many years. We use unique survey data from Bulgaria’s currency board to investigate the origins of incomplete credibility. We show that the limitations imposed by the currency board on output stabilization policies are a major source of concern. Many people view the financial stabilization policies as a reason for high unemployment and therefore as unsustainable. Another important factor for low credibility is the concern over potential international shocks. Conversely, past instability does not seem to translate strongly into expectations of future instability.     

A note on “Rethinking liquidity creation: Banks,shadow banks and the elasticity of finance”

Abstract

In their recent article, Yeva Nersisyan and Flavia Dantas proposed to amend the endogenous money theory to account for the activity of nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) and of foreign banks. It is indeed argued that the traditional post Keynesian and circuitist approaches are overly narrow because they rely on a limited definition of money. Consequently, these approaches are focused on commercial banks (that create money) and regard other financial institutions as mere intermediaries that intermediate funds from surplus units (savers) toward deficit units (borrowers). Because it treats NBFIs as mere intermediaries, the authors argue that the traditional post Keynesian framework is no longer relevant for the analysis of the contemporary financial system. We believe that this critique is not justified. Using balance sheet analysis, we show that the destabilizing role of NBFIs can be taken into account within the traditional post-Keynesian framework.     

The Political Economy of Monetary Institutions in Brazil: The Limits of the Inflation-targeting Strategy, 1999–2005

Abstract

This paper suggests that the time-inconsistency approach is inadequate to analyze the political economy of monetary policy in Brazil. The paper develops an alternative theory that emphasizes distributive conflict, and argues that building credibility with a fixed exchange rate and through inflation-targeting was not central for stabilization. A contested-terrain analysis of the Brazilian case suggests that the current monetary regime benefits financial or rentier interests while the manufacturing sector and workers bear the costs of this policy.     

The financial and economic performance of social banks

ABSTRACT

The financial crisis of 2008 provides evidence for the instability of the conventional banking system. Social banks may present a viable alternative for conventional banks. This article analyses the performance of social banks related to the bank business model, economic efficiency, asset quality, and stability by comparing social banks with banks where the difference is likely to be large, namely with the 30 global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) of the Financial Stability Board over the period 2000–2014. We also analyse the relative impact of the global financial crisis on the bank performance. The performance of social banks and G-SIBs is surprisingly similar.     

Time Delays and Business Cycles: Hilferding's model revisited

This paper develops a Marxian model of the business cycle based on Hilferding's theory of disproportionality in capital accumulation in a two-sector economy. The disproportionality arises from the existence of time delays in production generated by the differential capital intensity in the two sectors. The time delays produce an asymmetric price structure that causes overproduction and crisis. The model is constructed using delay-differential equations. Numerical simulations show that the model produces an economy-wide business cycle phenomenon. The domain of the time delay parameter is investigated, and shows that the model produces a wide variety of dynamics from monotonic convergence to explosive oscillations. Moreover, the solution shows that intersectoral investment flows transmit the instability in capital accumulation and that longer time delays produce higher cycle amplitudes.     

Measuring of International Financial Integration with a Multicriteria Decision Aid Approach

ABSTRACT

Despite the diversity of advanced approaches, the concept of ‘financial integration’ couldn’t be explicitly analyzed. Indeed, empirical studies have shown that the measures of international financial integration are one-dimensional analysis. Due to the ambiguity of the concept and its multiple determinants, it must be analyzed in multidimensional levels. The interest of this research is a proposal of a decision aid by a multicriteria approach (ELECTRE TRI) for determining the ranking of 47 countries according to the links between their degree of international and financial dependencies and the behavior of financial actors (trying to make governance decisions or diversification strategies of international portfolio).

Abbreviations: MCDA – Multi-Criteria Decision Approach     

The Economic Contributions of Hyman Minsky: varieties of capitalism and institutional reform

The work of Hyman Minsky represents an important link between Post Keynesians and Institutionalists. This essay begins with a brief summary of Minsky's early work, including his well-known financial instability hypothesis and his policy proposals designed to reform the financial system. It then moves on to discuss other proposals that are less well known, and developed after the publication of his Stabilizing an Unstable Economy (1986) book. One of them in all the work of Minsky is his demand that theory be institution-specific. Because there are a variety of possible types of economies, theory must be appropriate to the specific economy under analysis. His analysis concerned an evolving, developed, big-government capitalist economy with complex and long-lived financial arrangements. His policy recommendations were designed to promote a successful, democratic form of capitalism given these financial arrangements. These policies would have to ‘constrain’ instability through creation of institutional ‘ceilings and floors’ while at the same time addressing the behavioral changes induced by reduction of instability. The policies would also have to promote rising living standards, expansion of democratic principles, and enhancement of security for the average household.     

Effects on the medical revenue of comprehensive pricing reform in Chinese urban public hospitals after removing drug markups: case of Nanjing

Aims: The State Council of China requires that all urban public hospitals must eliminate drug markups by September 2017, and that hospital drugs must be sold at the purchase price. Nanjing-one of the first provincial capital cities to implement the reform—is studied to evaluate the effects of the comprehensive reform on drug prices in public hospitals, and to explore differential compensation plans.

Methods: Sixteen hospitals were selected, and financial data were collected over the 48-month period before the reform and for 12 months after the reform. An analysis was carried out using a simple linear interrupted time series model.

Results: The average difference ratio of drug surplus fell 13.39% after the reform, and the drug markups were basically eliminated. Revenue from medical services showed a net growth of 28.25%. The overall compensation received from government financial budget and medical service revenue growth was 103.69% for the loss from policy-permitted 15% markup sales, and 116.48% for the net loss. However, there were large differences in compensation levels at different hospitals, ranging from –21.92% to 413.74% by medical services revenue growth, causing the combined rate of both financial and service compensation to vary from 28.87–413.74%, There was a significant positive correlation between the services compensation rate and the proportion of medical service revenue (p?<?.001), and the compensation rate increased by 8% for every 1% increase in the proportion of services revenue.

Discussion: Nanjing’s pricing and compensation reform has basically achieved the policy targets of eliminating the drug markups, promoting the growth of medical services revenue, and adjusting the structure of medical revenue. However, the growth rate of service revenue of hospitals varied significantly from one another.

Conclusions: Nanjing’s reform represents successful pricing and compensation reform in Chinese urban public hospitals. It is recommended that a differentiated and dynamic compensation plan should be established in accordance with the revenue structure of different hospitals.     

Policy uncertainty and international financial markets: the case of Brexit

ABSTRACT

This study assesses the impact of the Brexit probability on both the UK and on international financial markets, for the first and the second statistical moments. As financial markets are by nature highly interlinked, one might expect that the uncertainty engendered by Brexit also has an impact on financial markets in several other countries. We first estimate the time-varying interactions between UK policy uncertainty, which to a large extent is attributed to uncertainty about Brexit and UK financial market volatilities. Second, we use two other measures of the perceived probability of Brexit before the referendum, namely daily data released by Betfair and results of polls published by Bloomberg. Based on these data sets, and using both panel and single-country SUR estimation methods, we analyse the Brexit effect on levels of stock returns, sovereign CDS, 10-year interest rates in 19 predominantly European countries, and those of the British pound and the euro. We show that Brexit-induced policy uncertainty will continue to cause instability in key financial markets and has the potential to damage the real economy in both the UK and other European countries. The main losers outside the UK are the ‘GIIPS’ economies: Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain.     

The instability principle revisited: an essay in Harrodian dynamics

Abstract

Harrod's contribution to economic dynamics is very often reduced to the dynamic equation whose character is unstable. Growth theory and cycle theory based on Harrod's contributions aimed at reducing this instability. Following Harrod, who was strongly opposed to the ‘knife-edge’ interpretation, we define the warranted rate of growth as a ‘moving equilibrium’ and focus on its interaction with the effective rate of growth. Our simple Harrodian model generates various dynamics from stable path, to growth cycle and corridor of stability.     

The breakdown of the IS–LM synthesis: implications for post-Keynesian economic theory

The monetarist and the new classical economics attack routed the IS–LM version of Keynesian theory and the large scale econometric models from the centre of macroeconomic research. However monetarism and the new classical economics were more successful as a critique of the IS–LM orthodoxy than as a basis for fruitful research and policy analysis.

Post-Keynesian economists also attack the IS–LM orthodoxy, mainly because it misspecified ‘… the economic society in which we actually live’. Post-Keynesians that emphasized financial and labour markets argued that properties of the real world economy made instability normal results ofmarket interactions.

The vacuum in main line theory that developed as the shortcomings of monetarism became evident led to a revival of interest in basic Keynesian propositions. This has spawned what is now labeled a new Keynesian economics. New Keynesian economists conform to the modeling standards set by the new classical rational expectations school but claim to get Keynesian results. To a degree these results are compatible with propositions of post-Keynesian economics.

It is suggested that a convergence between the new and the post-Keynesian economics can be expected, and the result is likely to be fruitful.     

The hidden soul of financial innovation: An agent-based modelling of home mortgage securitization and the finance-growth nexus

This paper investigates the interaction between financial innovation and securitization. To this end, it introduces the rate of financial innovation (RoFIN) as an endogenous variable in an Agent-Based Model (ABM) set up and studies its interaction with the non-fixed fraction of securitized mortgage loans. RoFIN is able to capture financial agents’ business decisions on using financial innovation tools, processes and services, such as the home mortgage securitization process. In the aftermath of the 2007–2009 financial and economic crisis it has been argued that financial innovation and securitization have increased macro/finance systemic instability via, for example, non-linear two-way spillovers between the financial system and the macroeconomy. The ABM model proposed enables the capture of these dynamics. High values of RoFIN (i.e. exceeding the threshold of 50%) make financial innovation become harmful for the economic system, leading to a switch from a virtuous to an unvirtuous business cycle. When RoFIN reaches 90%, the numerical simulations come close to the macro/finance dynamics observed before and during the financial crisis. Given its potential role in triggering financial and economic instability, RoFIN is of interest for financial regulation and supervision. How this endogenous variable may be influenced by means of operational variables under the control of policymakers remains a subject for future research.