Incomes and Inequality in the Long Run: The Case of German Elderly

Abstract. We use German Sample Survey income data to examine the income distribution for elderly individuals during the period from 1978 to 2003. The elderly population, defined as people of age 55 and older, is decomposed by people resident in the Old and New Federal States. Further, we distinguish between persons receiving old‐age pensions and persons who do not. Inequality estimates are decomposed by income components, and the bootstrap method is used to test for statistical significance of results.     

非法非正常收入对居民收入差别的影响及其经济学解释

在我国近些年的经济生活中 ,非法非正常收入的大量滋生与蔓延已经成为社会关注的重大问题。本文重点测算了各种非法非正常收入对我国城乡居民收入差别的影响程度 ,并对体制转轨时期非法非正常收入的发生机理给出经济学诠释。我们测算的结果显示 ,各种非法非正常收入是导致全国 (及城乡 )居民收入差别“非正常扩大”的基本因素 ;而市场化改革过程中不可避免出现的“制度缺陷”是体制转轨时期我国非法非正常收入滋生蔓延的根本原因     

The rise in UK unemployment: the search for an explanation

This paper suggests that the model used by Layard and Nickell to account for changes in unemployment is highly restrictive in that it imposes cross-equation constraints and neglects labour supply as a source of the increase in unemployment. A less restrictive model, which circumvents some of the problems encountered in the Layard-Nickell approach, is suggested as a tool to account for an unemployment path. Dynamic simulations with the model suggest that labour supply persistence, increased mark-up of prices over wages and low GDP growth have, in particular, contributed to the UK unemployment increase from 1967 to 1983.     

The determinants of tendering periods for PPP procurement in the UK: an empirical analysis

The procurement of infrastructure projects via public–private partnerships (PPPs) is rising globally. PPPs are, however, often characterized by lengthy tendering periods, defined as the difference between contract notice and financial close. Tendering periods are important because they account for a significant proportion of overall project delivery time. Slow tendering deters bidders and thus reduces competition for contracts. We source data on 670 PPP projects in the United Kingdom and use a duration analysis model to empirically examine factors that impact tendering period duration. Our results reveal significant sectoral variation with projects in the health and housing sectors taking significantly longer to reach financial close. We also show that, after controlling for other factors, projects with higher capital values and projects that overlap with the timing of general elections are associated with significantly longer tendering periods. We further examine the impact of the competitive dialogue procurement method and find evidence that tendering periods have increased since 2006; the year competitive dialogue was introduced. We do, however, observe a significant reduction in the time between appointment of preferred bidder and financial close post-2006. This suggests that competitive dialogue is effective in reducing the scope for negotiations by preferred bidders holding quasi-monopoly advantages.     

差别化个人所得税起征点标准的政策缺陷分析

个税征收应当体现公平优先,差别化个人所得税起征点标准不利于社会公平,将税制不合理因素向落后地区的转嫁,加剧落后地区的对发达地区的转移支付,使中央财政职能缺失与错位,抑制落后地区的发展。     

The Effect of Immigration on Residents' Incomes in Australia: Some Issues Reconsidered

This article outlines the standard neoclassical model (SNM) of the impact of immigration on the incomes of the resident (pre-immigration) population. We augment the SNM to allow for foreign ownership of and government equity in the capital stock. Using the expanded model, the sensitivity of residents' incomes to immigration is tested in four scenarios. Our calculations reveal that the size of the Berry-Soligo welfare triangle is small and is dominated by the effects of foreign ownership of capital and government equity in capital. In our preferred long-run scenario, the 1991–92 Australian immigrant intake reduced residents' incomes. We believe the results based on the expanded SNM justify a more comprehensive study incorporating a range of other influential factors determining the impact of immigration on residents' incomes. We suggest a list of such factors and report on work done in these specific areas. Essential to a comprehensive study are the integration of results from studies in specific areas, and the devotion of resources to the tasks of further data collection and model development     

Addressing shortfalls in TIA care in the UK: an economic perspective

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the clinical outcomes and costs associated with reconfiguring the management of TIA in the UK to offer patients rapid access to outpatient clinics for specialist assessment and treatment.

Methods: An economic deterministic model was run comparing two pathways – one arm representing current clinical care based on national guidelines and clinical practice and patient referral to a weekly outpatient clinic, and a revised care pathway replicating phase 2 of the EXPRESS study with patient referral to a daily outpatient clinic. The outcomes of the model were measured in terms of recurrent strokes avoided and net budget impact to secondary care.

Results: Reconfiguring TIA care pathways in the UK could result in the avoidance of 8,164 recurrent stroke events. The model predicts savings of £25,573,279 for the UK healthcare system over 12 months. Annual net savings are predicted in England (£24,916,011), Scotland (£80,554) and Northern Ireland (£1,041,817). In Wales, increased costs of £450,435 are estimated.

Limitations: Using the data published from the EXPRESS study, it is not possible to model a stepwise approach to implementing the revised TIA care pathway. It is therefore assumed that it would be possible to implement the revised TIA care pathway as detailed in the EXPRESS study across the UK and achieve the reduction in recurrent stroke risk that was reported.

Conclusions: The model suggests that the reconfiguration of TIA care pathways in the UK to offer rapid access to treatment and assessment could prevent TIA-related future stroke events and potentially result in cost savings to the healthcare system.     

The Population Sub-Group Income Effects on Inequality: Analytical Framework and an Empirical Illustration

A method is developed to examine the population sub-group income effects on inequality using the generalized Theil indices. The proposed method is illustrated by computing the effects of marginal changes in the occupation-specific incomes on per capita income inequality in Australia based on data for 7197 sample households relating to the 1988-89 Household Expenditure Survey conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The study shows that the growth of (distribution neutral) per capita income in four occupations, namely, unemployed and pensioners, trade-persons, machine operators and laborers, is inequality reducing whereas the growth of per capita income in all other occupations is inequality augmenting. The occupation-specific income effects on between-group inequality are, however, stronger than those on within-group inequality. These findings are invariant to the choice of alternative distributional weights used in the generalized Theil indices.     

Thank you Francisco Xavier: an essay in the use of micro-data for historical demography of Tokugawa Japan

The author describes the Religious Affiliation Investigation Registers (Shumon Aratame Cho), which constitute the best available population data for pre-modern Japan. These registers are a result of the anti-Christian policies of the Tokugawa regime, which governed Japan from 1603 to 1868. The methodology for using these registers in historical demographic analysis is discussed, and the work of a research group that is currently conducting such an analysis is described.     

Aggregate imports and expenditure components in the UK: an empirical analysis

This paper examines the long-run relationship between UK aggregate imports and the macroeconomic components of final expenditure, using the Johansen multivariate cointegration analysis. It is found that there are significant differences between the long-run elasticities of import demand with respect to the different components of final expenditure, over the period 1972 to 1990. An error correction model is proposed for short-run forecasting of UK aggregate imports. The short-run model appears to track the data well.     

The Political Economy of Tax-Based Incomes Policy: Wealth Effects of Post Keynesian TIP

This paper explores the economics of electoral democracy, an almost entirely neglected subject. Running for office necessitates resources. But students of democracy have had almost nothing to say about how much money should be spent by candidates or where that money should come from. As a result, there is a gaping void in the theory of democracy. Joseph A. Schumpeter used a market analogy in his discussion of the electoral process, but even he did not discuss how electoral campaigns are to be paid for. In fact, the few citizens who largely fund campaigns for office in the United States purchase non-rivalrous influence. They obtain the ability to shape the policies that affect all citizens. In this way, political equality is undermined. The paper concludes that achieving a more representative political system can best be attained by treating political campaigns as a public good.     

The Role of Mobility in Offsetting Inequality: A Nonparametric Exploration of the CPS

This paper explores how annual earnings mobility offsets annual earnings inequality, using matched CPS data. Mobility in the economy is estimated using nonparametric quantile regression, for which we adapt state–of–the–art smoothing techniques. Mobility is measured through the churning process (changes in earnings given initial earnings) in order to identify different mobility patterns for different earnings groups. For instance, upward mobility in high earners is far weaker than its converse, downward mobility for low earners. We assess the (positive or negative) contribution to offsetting of each pattern in mobility. Innovations in our approach also allow us to identify trends and minute changes in mobility, and to pinpoint which changes in mobility have offset the increases in inequality observed over the decades.     

Schumpeter's crisis of the tax state: An essay in fiscal sociology

Schumpeter'sCrisis of the Tax State and other fiscal writings are summarized. His crisis theory and its relation to his prognosis of capitalist decline is explored, along with Goldscheid's earlier model. Both are found to have underestimated the resilience of the tax state and its ability to sustain expanding budgets. Schumpeter's view of the income tax as appropriate for a minimal state is assessed along with subsequent tax development. His fiscal model is placed in the context of his understanding of sociology as a social science. Some conjectures on his response to the subsequent course of fiscal sociology are added.The Editors invitation to revisit the Crisis of the Tax State coincided with my intent to review Schumpeter's recently publishedEssays in Economic Policy, 1991, C. Seidl and W. Stolper, eds., Princeton University Press. Spanning Schumpeter's economic and fiscal writings for three decades, this volume provides a rich addition to his initial vision, so that these pages may serve both tasks.     

Sources of Inequality: Measuring the Contributions of Income Sources to Rising Family Income Inequality

We develop a simulation method for measuring the impact of changes in the distributions of the main income sources on growth in family income inequality. We simulate the entire distribution of family income under the counterfactual, “What if the distribution of each source had not changed?” The simulation method allows us to evaluate the impact of changes at any point in the distribution as well as with multiple measures of inequality. We incorporate married‐couple and single‐person families, appropriately accounting for changes in the proportion married. We apply the simulation method to investigate the impact of changes in male earnings, female earnings, and capital income on the distribution of family income in the United States between 1969 and 1999. We find that changes in the distribution of male earnings account for more of the growth in family income inequality than do changes in any other source of income. Changes in the distribution of female earnings have reduced family income inequality.