Uncertainty determinants of corporate liquidity

This paper investigates the link between the optimal level of non-financial firms' liquid assets and uncertainty. We develop a partial equilibrium model of precautionary demand for liquid assets showing that firms alter their liquidity ratio in response to changes in either macroeconomic or idiosyncratic uncertainty. We test this hypothesis using a panel of non-financial US firms drawn from the COMPUSTAT quarterly database covering the period 1993–2002. The results indicate that firms increase their liquidity ratios when macroeconomic uncertainty or idiosyncratic uncertainty increases.     

To outsource or not to outsource in an integrated world

This paper investigates outsourcing decision under certainty and uncertainty. When the production activity can be fragmented into two or more processes, an integrated firm must be competitive in each of the fragmented processes. There are gains from outsourcing when factor prices differ between countries. When factor prices are not equalized internationally, a firm may outsource the process which uses its scarce source intensively. If the cost of outsourcing is lower in the foreign country, full outsourcing occurs under certainty. However, even if the outside supplier has a cost advantage, uncertainty in outsourcing cost ensures that partial outsourcing is optimal for risk-averse firms.     

Bankable emission permits under uncertainty and optimal risk-management rules

This article proposes a theory of banking of emission permits under conditions of regulatory uncertainty. Based on a two-period partial equilibrium framework, we examine the effects of increasing risk–in the sense of a mean preserving spread–regarding a future permit allocation at the firm level. We also examine the role of an agency to pool risks by re-allocating permits for a group of firms. Our results are twofold. First, an increase in risk may lead to changes in a firm’s banking strategy, depending on the third partial derivative of its production function with respect to pollution. Second, we define an optimal risk-sharing rule between agents to respond to political decision changes. Our results overall suggest that the bankability of permits may be used as a risk-management tool.     

EXPORT AND HEDGING DECISIONS UNDER CORRELATED REVENUE AND EXCHANGE RATE RISK

This paper examines the behaviour of a competitive exporting firm under joint revenue and exchange rate risk. The firm can trade unbiased currency futures contracts for hedging purposes. We show that neither the separation theorem nor the full‐hedging theorem holds when the revenue shock prevails. If the correlation between the revenue shock and the random spot exchange rate is non‐positive, the firm optimally produces less than the benchmark level when the revenue shock is absent. If, in addition, the firm is prudent, the optimal futures position is an under‐hedge. Finally, we derive sufficient conditions under which the firm's optimal output level is higher in the presence than in the absence of the revenue shock. Operational hedging and financial hedging as such interact in a complicated way to better cope with the multiple sources of uncertainty faced by the firm.     

Knightian uncertainty and moral hazard

This paper presents a principal-agent model in which the agent has imprecise beliefs. We model this situation formally by assuming the agent?s preferences are incomplete as in Bewley (1986) [2]. In this setting, incentives must be robust to Knightian uncertainty. We study the implications of robustness for the form of the resulting optimal contracts. We give conditions under which there is a unique optimal contract, and show that it must have a simple flat payment plus bonus structure. That is, output levels are divided into two sets, and the optimal contract pays the same wage for all output levels in each set. We derive this result for the case in which the agent?s utility function is linear and then show it also holds if this utility function has some limited curvature.     

On the theory of the competitive firm with a utility function defined on profits and regret

In this paper we analyze the optimal output determined by a competitive firm facing uncertain demand. We analyze the effect of introducing uncertainty and the effect of increasing uncertainty on the optimal output, under the assumption that the utility function of the firm depends both on profits and on regret. We show that if the firm is more risk averse to profits than to regret (in a sense described below), both effects tend to decrease the optimal output. Similar effects of introducing uncertainty and of increased uncertainty were previously shown by Sandmo (1971) to exist in the case where utility is defined on profits only. Thus, this paper provides conditions under which the above results hold true, even when utility is defined on regret and on profits.     

Consumption Externalities,Habit Formation and Equilibrium Efficiency*

We analyze the welfare properties of the competitive equilibrium in a capital accumulation model where individual preferences are subject to both habit formation and consumption spillovers. Using an additive specification for preferences, according to which the argument in the utility function is a linear combination of present and past values of own consumption and consumption spillovers, we analyze the circumstances under which these spillovers are a source of inefficiency. It is shown that consumption externalities have to interact with habits in order to generate an inefficient dynamic equilibrium. Finally, we characterize optimal tax policies aimed at restoring efficient decentralized paths.     

Asymmetric effects of uncertainty shocks: Normal times and financial disruptions are different

We examine whether the response of the euro area economy to uncertainty shocks depends on financial conditions. We find strong evidence that uncertainty shocks have much more powerful effects on key macroeconomic variables in episodes marked by financial distress than in normal times. We also document that the recovery of economic activity following an adverse uncertainty shock is state dependent: it is gradual in normal times, but displays a more accelerated rebound when the shock hits during financial distress, reflecting monetary accommodation provided by the central bank. These findings are based on a non-linear data-driven model that accounts for regime switching and time-varying volatility. Our findings imply that whether financial markets are calm or distressed matters when it comes to the appropriate policy responses to uncertainty shocks.     

中国通胀水平与通胀不确定性:马尔柯夫域变分析

本文使用中国1985年以来月度数据,基于马尔柯夫域变模型考察了通胀水平及其与不确定性的关系。我们将通胀的不确定性分解为两类成分:未来通胀冲击的不确定性和未来通胀均值域变的不确定性。研究结果表明,高的通胀水平伴随着这两类不确定性成分的同时增大,这意味着通胀成本很大程度上和不确定性的成本联系在一起,稳定价格和维持低通胀环境可能成为央行减少不确定性的重要手段。本文结果还表明,域变模型相对线性自回归模型以及ARCH模型更好地刻画了中国通胀率过程的特点。以往应用中忽略了这种域变特点可能导致通胀预测值相对于真实值的系统性偏差,或者通胀不确定性的错误估计。     

Monetary policy design and transmission asymmetry in EMU: Does uncertainty matter?

In this paper, we consider how uncertainty affects the choice between federal monetary policy based on national and union-wide aggregate data under conditions of asymmetry in the transmission of monetary policy. We find that the uncertainty about the transmission process sustains (and, in some cases, even reinforces) the need to take into account information about national economies in the formulation of monetary policy. Also the forecasting process matters when uncertainty is additive: in particular, when union-wide forecasting is more accurate than national-based forecasting, this advantage can compensate for the welfare loss from using union-wide aggregation. There is, however, a strong case for using national information in the optimal design of common monetary policy.     

Uncertainty shocks,precautionary pricing,and optimal monetary policy

Existing studies show that, in standard New Keynesian models, uncertainty shocks manifest as cost-push shocks due to the precautionary pricing channel. We study optimal monetary policy in response to uncertainty shocks when the precautionary pricing channel is operative. We show that, in the absence of real imperfections, the optimal monetary policy fully stabilizes the output gap and inflation, implying no policy trade-offs. Our result suggests that precautionary pricing matters only insofar as expected inflation is volatile. Thus, a simple Taylor rule that places high weight on inflation leads to a stabilized output gap, thereby attaining the “divine coincidence”.     

Optimal taxation in the extensive model

We study optimal taxation under extensive preferences: the agents? utilities are constant for positive actions up to a maximal productivity level. Utilities may be discontinuous at the origin, reflecting fixed costs of participation. Allowing for general distributions of work opportunity costs and productivity and for income effects, we characterize optimal, incentive-compatible tax schedules. We then give sufficient conditions for society to desire redistribution. When these conditions hold, upward distortions of the financial incentives to work can only occur for low-skilled workers. Such upwards distortions are indeed always present when the fixed participation costs are pecuniary.     

How perceived uncertainties influence transitions; the case of micro-CHP in the Netherlands

Transitions, or socio-technological transformations, towards sustainability can be considered as a long-term transformation at the level of society as a whole, which in turn consists of a sequence of short-term innovations. The direction and speed of transitions are largely determined by the collective innovation decisions of various actors. A crucial characteristic of transitions is that they involve many uncertainties. The uncertainties that actors perceive greatly influence their innovation decisions. Namely, perceived uncertainties might stimulate some actors to fulfill certain key activities that are crucial for achieving a transition, while blocking other actors from undertaking these activities. In order to understand and manage transitions, insight into the types of perceived uncertainties that dominate the innovation decisions is essential. Furthermore, we need to understand if perceived uncertainties block or stimulate transitions by analyzing how actors respond to perceived uncertainties.This article focuses on the first transition phase: the pre-development phase. An interesting case to study the role of uncertainties in this phase is the introduction of micro-CHP in the Netherlands. The main questions of this article are: Which types of perceived uncertainties are dominant for the innovation decisions related to micro-CHP in the Netherlands? How do actors react to the perceived uncertainties?The case results demonstrate that different types of uncertainties influence the innovation decisions of the involved actors. The most dominant sources of uncertainty are technological and political uncertainty. Furthermore, the case shows that responses to uncertainty vary largely between various types of actors. Perceived uncertainties seem to block some actors, but induce other actors in fulfilling key activities that are essential for achieving a transition. We discuss how these insights can be used for improving policy for stimulating transitions.     

Risk,uncertainty, and leverage

Using mostly theoretical models and traditional risk/uncertainty measures (VIX index, panic, precaution, scary bad news, etc.), the current literature tries to clarify the risk/uncertainty-deleveraging pattern. The findings are not sufficient to explain the dynamic empirical relationship between modern risk/uncertainty indicators and leverage. We fill this gap in the literature by using US quarterly data, from 1985:1 to 2018:4, Granger causality tests, and a structural vector autoregression model. We find that commercial bank leverage rises when geopolitical risk and macroeconomic, policy, and equity uncertainty increase. Client-based business relationships of banks and high government borrowing from banks during crises periods are responsible for this relationship. We find that the leverage of broker-dealers and shadow banks declines when Chicago risk and macroeconomic, policy, financial, and equity uncertainty increase. We argue that the vulnerability of broker-dealers and shadow banks to the risk/uncertainty of the entire market system is responsible for this relationship.     

The choice between multiplicative and additive production uncertainty

When modeling output uncertainty, the multiplicative specification is consistently chosen over the additive form, despite the latter being arguably intuitively more obvious. The rationale for this seems to be that when production risk is the only source of uncertainty, additive uncertainty does not reduce output below the certainty level, while multiplicative uncertainty does. We show that, in the absence of hedging, this result is drastically modified when there is simultaneous price and output uncertainty. In this situation the theoretical implications of the two specifications are sufficiently similar to preclude any a priori choice between the two. Thus the choice between the additive and multiplicative formulations may be dictated by how each performs in empirical analyses.     

Impact of economic uncertainty in a small open economy: the case of Chile

We construct the first news-based economic uncertainty index for Chile, which allowed us to rebuild 23 years of the history of economic uncertainty in the country and quantify its impact on the economy. We find that an increase in economic uncertainty conveys a fall in GDP, investment, and employment, even after accounting for the small open economy nature of Chile. In contrast to previous studies for big and developed economies, we do not find evidence of an overshooting effect when uncertainty dissipates; therefore, increases in economic uncertainty have negative effects on the economy, even in the long-run. Our estimates suggest that these impacts range from 10% to 20% for aggregate investment, 2.5% to 5% for GDP, and 1.3% to 4.2% for employment. Extensions suggest that economic uncertainty affects both mining and non-mining investment, with the former showing a more pronounced decline. We also find that the bulk of effect of economic uncertainty on aggregate investment is via private investment, with some short-run impacts on public investment. Moreover, compared to the GDP response, aggregate consumption responds in almost the same way to an economic uncertainty shock.     

DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY: ROBUST RULES IN MONETARY POLICY

We argue that in seeking to insure against model uncertainty, monetary policy makers are often ready to trade ex post performance for greater certainty in the outcome. They thus look for rules that although not optimal ex post, have certain properties that qualify them as robust. We apply first, Gul's approach of ‘disappointment’ aversion to describe policy makers' aversion to uncertainty and then define the properties the notion of ‘robustness’ entails. With these two tools we then link the desirability of such robust rules to the degree of policy makers' aversion to uncertainty. We thus show that provided such robust rules exist, a larger degree of disappointment aversion leads to a greater emphasis on robustness in policy implementation.     

Modernization of Tax Administrations and Optimal Fiscal Policies

Since Sandmo (1981) , many articles have analyzed optimal fiscal policies in economies with tax evasion. All share a feature: they assume that the cost of enforcing the tax law is exogenous. However, governments often invest resources to reduce these enforcement costs. In a very simple model, we incorporate such investments in the analysis of an optimal fiscal policy. We characterize their optimal level and we show numerically how they interact with the other dimensions of the optimal fiscal policy. Finally, we highlight the differences between our results and those obtained in a model without investment in the tax administration.     

Optimal emission-extraction policy in a world of scarcity and irreversibility

This paper extends the classical exhaustible-resource/stock-pollution model with irreversibility of pollution decay, meaning that after reaching some threshold there is no decay of the pollution stock. Within this framework, we answer the question how the potential irreversibility of pollution affects the extraction path. We investigate the conditions under which the economy will optimally adopt a reversible policy, and when it is optimal to enter the irreversible region. In the case of irreversibility it may be optimal to leave a positive amount of resource in the ground forever. As far as the optimal extraction/emission policy is concerned, several types of solutions may arise, including solutions where the economy stays at the threshold for a while. Given that different programs may satisfy the first order conditions for optimality, we further investigate when each of these is optimal. We show that it is never optimal for the economy to stay at the threshold for a while before entering the irreversible region. The optimality analysis is then illustrated by means of a calibrated example. To sum up, for any pollution level, we can identify a critical resource stock such that there exist multiple optima i.e. a reversible and an irreversible policy that yield exactly the same present value. For any resource stock below this critical value, the optimal policy is reversible whereas with large enough resources, irreversible policies outperform reversible programs.     

Optimal emission-extraction policy in a world of scarcity and irreversibility

This paper extends the classical exhaustible-resource/stock-pollution model with irreversibility of pollution decay, meaning that after reaching some threshold there is no decay of the pollution stock. Within this framework, we answer the question how the potential irreversibility of pollution affects the extraction path. We investigate the conditions under which the economy will optimally adopt a reversible policy, and when it is optimal to enter the irreversible region. In the case of irreversibility it may be optimal to leave a positive amount of resource in the ground forever. As far as the optimal extraction/emission policy is concerned, several types of solutions may arise, including solutions where the economy stays at the threshold for a while. Given that different programs may satisfy the first order conditions for optimality, we further investigate when each of these is optimal. We show that it is never optimal for the economy to stay at the threshold for a while before entering the irreversible region. The optimality analysis is then illustrated by means of a calibrated example. To sum up, for any pollution level, we can identify a critical resource stock such that there exist multiple optima i.e. a reversible and an irreversible policy that yield exactly the same present value. For any resource stock below this critical value, the optimal policy is reversible whereas with large enough resources, irreversible policies outperform reversible programs.