Investigating the distribution of personal income obtained from the recent U.S. data

This study considered the conservation of money in a closed economic system. In such system, the probability distribution of money is exponential, and similar to the Boltzmann-Gibbs function in a closed energy system. The theoretical concept of econophysics is compared here with empirical data. The current work analyzes the recent data with regard to personal income distribution obtained from United States Census Bureau for the years 2006, 2007 and 2008. The data was best fitted with the exponential function, which supports the theoretical assumption for the income of the majority of the population. This study also investigates this distribution for a population with high personal income.     

On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: New evidence from US-Malaysia trade at the industry level

All previous studies that assessed the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows assumed that the effects are symmetric. In this paper, we open a new path in the literature by arguing that indeed the effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows could be asymmetric. The asymmetric effects are mostly due to the change in expectations of traders when a currency depreciates as compared to a case when that currency appreciates. We demonstrate the asymmetric effects by using monthly data from 54 Malaysian industries that export to the U.S. and from 63 Malaysian industries that import from the U.S. The application of the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach of Shin et al. (2014) supports short-run as well as long-run asymmetric effects in almost 1/3rd of the industries. The approach identifies industries that are affected when volatility increases versus those that are affected when volatility declines.     

Asymmetric effects of financial development on South-South and South-North trade: Panel data evidence from emerging markets

Using bilateral trade data in total and technology-and-skill-intensive manufactured goods for 28 developing countries that account for 82% of all developing country manufactures exports between 1978 and 2005, this paper explores the effects of financial development on the pattern of specialization in South-South and South-North trade. The empirical results using dynamic panel regressions and comprehensive sensitivity tests suggest that financial development in the South has an economically and statistically significant positive effect on the share of total and technology-and-skill-intensive manufactures exports in GDP, and total exports in South-South trade. In contrast, no such significant or robust effect of financial development is found in South-North trade. Overall, the positive effect of financial development is found to be asymmetric favoring South-South significantly more than South-North trade. In addition, financial development is found to be increasing technology-and-skill-intensive manufactured goods exports significantly more than total manufactured or merchandise goods exports.     

Testing for changing shapes of income distribution: Italian evidence in the 1990s from kernel density estimates

By using nonparametric methods, this paper estimates the distribution of both household and size-adjusted real income in Italy between 1987–1998. Because of data sparseness in the distribution, an adaptive bandwidth is used, while to account for sample design a weighting variable is incorporated in the estimation procedure. The time invariance and the presence of modes in the distributions are tested by means of a nonparametric test and a bootstrap test, respectively. The empirical results suggest that the Italian income distribution significantly changed over time. During the eighties the density shifted rightwards, positively affecting the well being of a large fraction of Italian households. The 1993 recession altered the shape of income distribution increasing inequality and polarisation, and the following period of slow recovery did not show significant changes in the shape of distribution in terms of relative income with a consequent permanence of inequality. The polarisation of the distribution is more noticeable for size-adjusted income rather than whole household income, reflecting the influence of family size on income shape.Jel classification: C14, D31, I30The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Italian Ministry of the Universities and Scientific Research (MIUR). We would like to thank two anonymous referees, Nicholas Longford, Aman Ullah and participants of the International workshop on Income Distribution and Welfare, Milan, May 2002 for their useful comments and suggestions. Obviously we are the solely responsible of any further error and omission.First version received: January 2002/Final version received: January 2003     

Prediction of volatility based on realized-GARCH-kernel-type models: Evidence from China and the U.S.

We propose three Realized-GARCH-Kernel-type models which do not make the distribution assumptions on the return disturbance terms. We use this type of model to predict the return volatilities of the 50ETF in China and the S&P500 index in the U.S. The semiparametric kernel density estimator of our models, which captures the skewness, asymmetry and fat-tail of financial assets, performs well both statistically and economically. Our models have more predictive power than other eight comparable volatility models that need to pre-specify the distribution of the disturbance terms. Our results are robust to eight measures of realized volatility. Using option straddle strategies, we show that our models generate larger trading profits and greater Sharpe ratios than the other competing models.     

The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports: evidence from Armenia

The article examines how the volatility of exchange rate affected Armenia’s export to its main trading partner, Russia, in the period from January 2007 to February 2016. Along with real foreign income and competitiveness, the exchange rate volatility is considered as a determinant of real export. The estimation results indicate that the exchange rate volatility has negative significant effects on real export both in the long run and in the short run.     

Determinants of land value volatility in the U.S. Corn Belt

ABSTRACT

Understanding land value volatility and its reaction to exogenous shocks helps land owners, investors, and lenders assess risk. Land value volatility, the variance of the unpredictable component of land value growth rates, is modelled for each of the Corn Belt states in the U.S. using EGARCH. A pooled VAR system is then estimated to capture the interactions between land value determinants and land value volatility. The variables of the pooled VAR are split into negative and positive vectors to allow for asymmetric impacts. Impulse response functions are mapped. All states exhibit land value volatility clustering. Inflation, cash rent and population growth rates granger cause land value volatility. Land value volatility responses to negative shocks are greater than those to positive shocks. Lenders and investors should expect greater swings in land values after negative shocks to land value growth rates, but not an overreaction of land values from shocks to cash rent growth rates. Positive shocks to changes in interest rates increases land value volatility, but unexpected shocks to population growth rates do not have statistically significant impact on land value volatility.     

The income–pollution relationship and the role of income distribution: An analysis of Swedish household data

The main purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between pollution and income at household level. The study is motivated by the recent literature emphasizing the importance of income distribution for the aggregate relation between pollution and income. The main findings from previous studies are that if the individual pollution–income relationship is non-linear, then aggregate pollution for, say, a whole country, will depend not only on average income, but also on how income is distributed. To achieve our objective we formulate a model for determining the choice of consumption of goods in different types of household. Furthermore we link the demand model to emission functions for various goods. The theoretical analysis shows that without imposing very restrictive assumptions on preferences and the emission functions, it is not possible to determine a priori the slope or the curvature of the pollution–income relation. The empirical analysis shows that, given the model used, the pollution–income relation has a positive slope in Sweden and is strictly concave for all three pollutants under study (CO₂, SO₂, NO_x), at least in the neighbourhood of the observed income for an average household. We also show that altering the prevailing income distribution, holding average income constant, will affect aggregate emissions in the sense that an equalization of incomes will give rise to an increase in emissions. One implication is then that the development of aggregate pollution due to growth depends not only on the income level, but also on how growth is distributed.     

Effects of income distribution in an inverse demand system: evidence from Chinese household survey data

This study provides an empirical analysis of the impact of changes in income distribution on food demand in China using data from China Health and Nutrition Survey. A new parametric form of an inverse demand system is introduced and estimated taking into account reported zero consumption. This new form is a natural extension of recent works that accommodate the incorporation of income distribution into the system and imposition of global regularity conditions in estimation. Our results generally indicate that the distribution of households across income groups is important in determining food demand in China and that a movement towards a more equal income distribution in China will stimulate the demand for vegetable, fruit, fish and eggs.     

Variation in the effects of government spending shocks with methods of financing: Evidence from the U.S.

Using annual data for the United States, the paper investigates the evidence of variation in the fiscal multiplier with the method of financing government spending. The fiscal multiplier varies in the face of positive and negative shocks and across methods of financing. In general, fiscal expansion appears insignificant on aggregate demand and economic activity. In contrast, the evidence presents a number of significant negative multipliers in the face of fiscal contraction. The combined evidence challenges the effectiveness of fiscal policy and supports arguments to restrain fiscal expansion in an effort to stimulate the economy.     

Testing hysteresis effect in U.S. state unemployment: new evidence using a nonlinear quantile unit root test

We revisit hysteresis effect in the unemployment rate of each of the 52 states of the United States using nonlinear quantile unit root test over the period 1976M1–2016M7. Our results indicate that unemployment rate of the U.S. economy as a whole displays hysteresis effect over recessionary periods. Nineteen out of 52 states display hysteresis behaviour over the period 1976–2016. For the remaining 33 states, we find four types of behaviours. Some states display stationarity behaviour almost in all quantiles. Some display hysteresis over recessionary periods and in contrast some display hysteresis over expansion period.     

The role of factor substitution in the theory of economic growth and income distribution: Two examples

While much empirical evidence suggests that the Cobb–Douglas production function may be a reasonable benchmark for aggregate analysis, we argue that the practice, particularly prevalent in contemporary growth theory, of adopting the Cobb–Douglas technology, may lead to misleading implications. Using two examples, we show that key implications of the models are highly sensitive to small deviations of the elasticity of substitution from unity. The first employs the standard neoclassical model and emphasizes the sensitivity of the speed of convergence to small changes in the elasticity of substitution. This in turn has profound consequences for wealth and income distribution. The second deals with foreign aid and highlights how the relative merits of “tied” versus “untied” aid are also very sensitive to the elasticity of substitution.     

Inequality and the business cycle: evidence from U.S. survey data

ABSTRACT

We study the effects of macroeconomic shocks on measures of economic inequality obtained from U.S. survey data. To identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, and monetary policy shocks, we estimate vector autoregressions and impose sign and zero restrictions on impulse response functions. We find that the effects of the macroeconomic shocks on inequality depend on the type of shock as well as on the measure of inequality considered. Contractionary monetary policy shocks increase expenditure and consumption inequality, whereas income and earnings inequality are less affected. Adverse aggregate supply and demand shocks increase income and earnings inequality, but reduce expenditure and consumption inequality. Our results suggest that different channels dominate in the transmission of the shocks. The earnings heterogeneity channel is consistent with the inequality dynamics after monetary policy shocks, but it appears to be less crucial when the economy is hit by either aggregate supply or aggregate demand shocks. Using variance decompositions, we find that although the macroeconomic shocks account for large shares of the variation in the macroeconomic variables, their contributions to the dynamics of the inequality measures are limited.     

The price relationship between organic and non-organic vegetables in the U.S.: evidence from Nielsen scanner data

This study investigates price relationships between organic and conventional carrots, tomatoes, and lettuce in the U.S. utilizing Nielsen scanner data from 2006–2015. We employ a threshold vector error correction model (TVECM), threshold vector autoregressive model (TVAR), and threshold cointegration test to test whether market integration exists between organic and conventional vegetables as well as the existence of asymmetric price transmission. The results find positive long-run relationships between organic and conventional prices of carrots and tomatoes and show the existence of asymmetric price transmission in price pairs of lettuce and tomatoes. Our findings suggest that the price relationship between organic and conventional vegetables varies by characteristics, such as shelf life, volatility in the price premium, and substitutability.     

The impact of the corporate income tax: evidence from state organizational form data

By taxing the income of corporate firms at a different rate than non-corporate firms, taxes can play an important role in a firm's choice of organizational form. The sensitivity of the organizational form decision to tax rates provides a key indicator of the distortion created by the corporate income tax. This paper uses new cross-sectional data on organizational form choices across states compiled in the Census of Retail Trade to estimate this sensitivity. The results document a significant impact of the relative taxation of corporate to personal income on the share of real economic activity that is done by corporations and that the impact is many times larger than has been found in the previous empirical literature based on time-series data. The results show little impact, however, on the actual operations of firms such as their labor intensity, wages and the like. They do indicate that firms are able to exploit the progressivity of the corporate income tax system by dividing into numerous firms.     

Spillovers of volatility index: evidence from U.S., European,and Asian stock markets

We investigated the cross-market relations of volatility indexes with U.S. and non-U.S. stock market returns. We found that the pervasive VIX influence at both U.S. and non-U.S. stock markets. The VSTOXX and VKOSPI capture the major shocks to the global economy and show movements similar to the VIX. The empirical findings indicate that volatility index changes are important in explaining stock returns. We also examined spillover effects across volatility indexes. The VIX is a main transmitter, and the VKOSPI the main receiver, of these spillovers. The results point to a leading role for the VIX in the international market.     

The effects of the Uruguay round: empirical evidence from U.S. industry

This article uses an event study to evaluate the anticipated results of the Uruguay Round on U.S. industry. Economists commonly use computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to predict the net economic efficiency effects of trade agreements. The event study method represents a complementary approach that relies on stock price movements to assess how investors predict that an event, in this case the conclusion of the Uruguay Round, will affect industry profitability. The empirical estimates indicate that U.S. industries with comparative advantage (disadvantage) experience positive (negative) stock price reactions, reflecting an increase (a decrease) in the industry trade and investment opportunities as well as an increased (decreased) return to existing tangible and intangible assets. For the market as a whole, the variation in stock prices does not differ significantly from zero, and the economic magnitude of industry gains and losses is small. These results are consistent with most CGE assessments and with the skeptical attitude that the real impact of the Uruguay Round Agreement remains uncertain.     

Taxation of multiple greenhouse gases and the effects on income distribution: A case study of the Netherlands

Current economic instruments aimed at climate change mitigation focus on CO₂ emissions only, but the Kyoto Protocol refers to other greenhouse gases (GHG) as well as CO₂. These are CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs and SF₆. Taxation of multiple greenhouse gases improves the cost-effectiveness of climate change mitigation. It is not yet clear, however, what the effect is of multigas taxation on the distribution of the tax burden across income groups. This paper examines and compares distributional effects of a CO₂ tax and a comprehensive tax that covers all six GHG of the Kyoto Protocol. The study concentrates on the Netherlands in the year 2000. We established tax rates on the basis of marginal abatement cost curves and the Dutch policy target. The distributional effects have been determined by means of environmentally extended input−output analysis and data on consumer expenditures. Our results show that taxation of multiple GHG improves not only the cost-effectiveness of climate change mitigation, but also distributes the tax burden more equally across income groups as compared to a CO₂ tax. These findings are relevant for the debate on the role of non-CO₂ GHG in climate change mitigation.     

Asymmetric interest rate pass-through in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia: New evidence from selected individual banks

This paper provides new evidence on asymmetric interest rate pass-through in the U.S., the U.K. and the Australian economies by using the Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag model, central bank interest rates, lending and deposit interest rates from selected banks, spanning the period 2000–2013. The results provide evidence that corroborates the asymmetric pass-through market predictions. Robustness tests are also performed by splitting the sample period into that prior to and after the recent financial crisis. The new findings document that the asymmetric character of pass-through remains active only in the case of Australia.     

On the impact of financial development on income distribution: time-series evidence

Financial market development is said to have equalizing or unequalizing effects on income distribution. Previous research used cross-sectional and panel data and provided mixed results. Suspecting that they suffer from aggregation bias, we adhere to time-series data and error-correction modeling technique and address the issue one more time in each of the 17 countries for which we have time-series data. In 10 counties, short-run effects of financial market development on income distribution were found to be equalizing. In five countries, the effects were unequalizing. However, the equalizing effects lasted into the long run only in three countries of Denmark, Kenya and Turkey.