Comment: Lucas on involuntary unemployment

Keynes distinguishes three concepts: voluntary, frictional and(Keynesian) involuntary unemployment. Frictional unemploymentis a Classical form of involuntary unemployment (not voluntary,as Lucas suggests), and reflects the Marshallian, rather thanWalrasian, treatment of time and equilibrium. Lucas contradictsboth Keynes and Pigou in asserting that there are always immediatevacancies for unskilled labour, and abstracts from the veryproblem that Keynes seeks to address. If voluntary unemploymentis re-defined appropriately, as De Vroey helpfully suggestselsewhere, the prefix ‘involuntary’ is dispensable,not because all unemployment is voluntary, as Lucas would haveit, but because it is all involuntary.     

UNEMPLOYMENT POLICIES IN AN ECONOMY WITH ADVERSE SELECTION

This paper studies the effects of unemployment policies in a simple static general equilibrium model with adverse selection in the labour market. Firms offer a contract that induces the self‐selection of workers. In equilibrium, all unskilled workers are screened out and some skilled workers are rationed out. It is shown that the provision of unemployment insurance raises involuntary unemployment by encouraging adverse selection, while unemployment assistance – or subsidy to unemployment – reduces involuntary unemployment. A simple efficiency wage model is also presented to show that either of the two policies reduces employment by taxing effort and subsidizing shirking. The key is whether the social role of unemployment is a sorting device or a worker discipline device.     

Involuntary unemployment: the missing piece in Keynes's General Theory *

Using a retrospective methodology, my paper examines critically the insights on involuntary unemployment offered by Keynes in his General Theory. Keynes, it is argued, gave involuntary unemployment a modern micro-founded definition yet — quite opportunely, in view of the difficulty of the task—did not attempt to provide a direct microeconomic explanation of it Rather, his claim to the demonstration of its existence rests on an indirect argument, where involuntary unemployment emerges at the corollary of effective demand falling short of its full employment level. This justification is based on the more or less tacit assumption that involuntary unemployment and effective demand-deficiency are equivalent. This claim of equivalence, it will be argued, is wanting. Hence the view that involuntary unemployment may have been demonstrated through the proxy of demand-deficiency falls. My paper evaluates whether Keynes's other arguments in favour of involuntary unemployment are robust. Several alternative interpretations of his General TheoryChapter Two ‘fundamental observation’, focusing respectively on money illusion, adjustment flaws, and resistance to cuts in nominal wages, are discussed. Here also the verdict will be negative. The general conclusion then follows that no solid explanation for the existence of involuntary unemployment is to be found in theGeneral Theory.     

Wages fund, high wages, and social conflict in a classical model of unemployment equilibrium

The aim of the paper is to provide an explanation of involuntary unemployment in a classical (post-Ricardian) framework. The model describes a three-stage bargaining process with four agents (governments, firms, unions, workers). In the first stage, firms determine the wage offered, following a short-run version of the wages fund theory. In the second stage, unionists determine the wage demanded, which depends on workers’ tendency to conflict, while firms decide the number of employed under a “right to manage” hypothesis. In the third stage, governments tax the wages fund and pay unemployment benefits. Public intervention is subject to a trade-off between accumulation and legitimation.     

Keynes, Lucas and involuntary unemployment: a reply to Hayes

In this response to Mark Hayes's criticism of his article, ‘Lucason involuntary unemployment’, the author insists on theneed to draw a distinction between labour rationing (a marketoutcome) and unemployment (the activity of job seeking). Economictheory is mainly concerned with the former. Yet the issue ofthe voluntarity versus the involuntarity of unemployment pertainsto unemployment as an activity. Failing to make this distinctioncannot but lead to semantic confusion.     

Hans Singer's model of the severity of recessions

This paper draws attention to the innovative but neglected workof Hans Singer on the dynamics of unemployment. Influenced byKeynes, in the late 1930s Singer enquired into the relationshipbetween the inflow into unemployment—resulting primarilyfrom (involuntary) separations from employment—and thesize of the resultant fluctuations in the level of unemployment.His focus was on the determinants of the severity—measuredin terms of how far unemployment rises—of recessions.We illustrate his approach by looking at quarterly data forthe claimant count and its associated inflow and outflow inthe UK over the period 1989–2003, a period which includesone major recession episode. In addition to drawing attentionto Singer's ideas, the paper also extends his model by takinginto account recent empirical evidence on the behaviour of oneof the key variables in his model. We argue that, with thisextension, Singer's elegant and parsimonious model of unemploymentdynamics is a useful complement to Keynes's ideas on the fluctuationsin aggregate demand and output, and is of contemporary relevance.     

On the existence of involuntary unemployment equilibria

Conclusion We have proved the existence of equilibria implying involuntary unemployment of labour in non-competitive economies with fixed wage rate. We notice that model (II) and its extensions have not been presented as aninterpretation of Keynes' theory. We may define them as Keynesian models only in the sense that they admit involuntary unemployment equilibrium, which concept is basic to Keynes' theory. In any case, we think that these models are a first step in the development of more realistic microeconomic foundations for short-run macroeconomic theory.A first draft of this paper was presented in December 1972 at the Institute of Political Economy, Faculty of Economics and Banking, Siena University.     

Unemployment and Workers' Control

The relationship between democratic workers' control and unemployment is explored. When unemployment arises from labor market distortions, market imperfections, or from information imperfections, labor-managed firms are superior to capitalist firms. The firm's governance and decision making structures then play an instrumental role in the level of unemployment. However, when involuntary unemployment arises from effective demand failures, then workers' control may not be able to maintain or to restore full employment. In such cases, collective and coordinated efforts are needed to reduce the level of involuntary unemployment.     

The equations unveiled: Sraffa's price equations in the making

In the first part of Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities,four equation systems are introduced: three are drawn up inorder to solve the problem of relative prices; the last oneis devised to define a suitable standard of prices. The bookwas published in 1960, but—as we are told in the preface—its‘central propositions’ and a first version of theprice equations had been originally conceived and written morethan 30 years before, when the author was still in his twenties.Having access now to the Sraffa Papers, preserved in the WrenLibrary, we can ascertain the intellectual origin of the equations.In this paper the analytical path that led to the final draftof the price equation is followed, step by step, and the linkbetween these equations and Sraffa's quest for an ‘invariablestandard of value’ is clarified.     

On Sraffa's Standard commodity

The necessity of expressing the relative price of a commodityin terms of another commodity makes it impossible to distinguishthat part of any change that can be ascribed to the characteristicsof the commodity itself from the part of that change that isto be ascribed to the characteristics of the commodity of reference,i.e., the numéraire. Ricardo (1817) was the first topoint out this problem and the need to find an ‘invariablemeasure of value’, but he was not able to solve the problem.In 1960, Sraffa suggested using a bundle of commodities, thathe called ‘Standard commodity’, to accomplish thisfunction, claiming that it was a standard of value invariantwith respect to changes in the distribution of income. But inSraffa's book there is no explicit proof of this claim. Thisgave rise to many misunderstandings about the Standard commodityand its role as invariable measure of value. This paper proposesa proper definition of an ‘invariable measure of value’,and then proves that the Sraffa ‘Standard commodity’does fulfil the requirements of this definition.     

Income Inequality in OECD Countries: Data and Explanations

There is much disagreement about both the facts and the explanationsof income inequality. Even if we confine attention to OECD countries,we find people arguing that there has been a great U-turn, withinequality rising sharply after its post war fall, and otherswho believe that the speed of change is glacial. In order toevaluate the historical record, we need data for a long runof years. The present paper reviews evidence about coveringthe period 1945–2001 for nine OECD countries. It is widelybelieved that rising inequality is attributable to technologicalchange and to globalisation. The second part of the paper arguesthat these are only part of a complex story. Household incomesdepend on public policy and on sources of income apart fromwork. What is happening at the top of the distribution may needto be explained quite differently. (JEL H0, E6)     

Global inequality and international trade

The paper analyses the effect of widespread trade liberalisationon global income inequality. The analysis of the trend in globalinequality during 1981–97, presented in the first partof the paper, shows that the apparent growth of income inequalityamong countries conceals a process of convergence. Some developingcountries achieved significantly faster economic growth thanthe advanced industrialised countries and, though small in number,they actually account for a majority of the population of thedeveloping world. Thus international inequality (i.e., the inequalityof distribution of per capita incomes among the world's population)in fact declined even though the inter-country income inequalityincreased. The analysis in the second part of the paper shows(i) that while improved trade performance did have a stimulatingeffect on growth performance of countries, trade liberalisationhad extremely varied effects on trade performance across countries,and (ii) that the distribution of benefits and costs of tradeliberalisation across countries has been such as to reduce internationalinequality without affecting inter-country inequality.     

A dynamic small open economy model with involuntary unemployment

Abstract It is well known that real business cycle small open economy (SOE) models rely on Greenwood, Hercowitz, and Huffman (1988) preferences to match the countercyclical trade balance observed in open economies, as well as other second moments, while standard preferences à la King, Plosser, and Rebelo (1988) are commonly labelled ‘ineffective,’ owing to their inability to yield the countercyclical trade balance. In this paper, I show that an SOE model with standard preferences and ‘involuntary’ unemployment with efficient risk sharing can obtain a countercyclical trade balance and match main empirical regularities in small open economies.     

A New Look at Old Issues: Keynesian Unemployment Revisited

Economists have long sensed that the failure of goods markets to clear is a prime reason for the emergence of unemployment. The novel feature of this paper is that it discovers a new theoretical basis proving this assumption. The paper claims that in a permanently growing economy, unemployment may be due to the failure of the markets to provide consumers with ever‐new varieties of consumption goods. As the difference between desired and available product widens, effective demand declines, leading on the one hand to unemployment, which exhibits a decisive Keynesian flavour as it is the result of goods markets failures, and on the other hand to an increase in involuntary savings, which provide the financial basis to foster innovation and growth. As the higher growth rate increases the probability of failures in effective demand, it further increases unemployment and increases involuntary savings, resulting in a finite multiplier process.     

Excess supply equilibria

This paper addresses a fundamental problem in economic theory: How can there be equilibria of the economic system where some commodity is in excess supply, yet that commodity's relative price shows no tendency to fall? Of course, the principal example of such a phenomenon is an economy experiencing a prolonged period of involuntary unemployment of the labor force during which there is no significant change in the real wage.In the following pages, I shall describe a two-commodity, general equilibrium model that has a continuum of unemployment equilibria, one for any given unemployment rate. The important feature of this model is that workers establish their wage rates in an attempt to maximize expected utility. The information upon which these wage setting decisions are based is provided by actual labor market transactions.Despite the voluntary nature of the wage setting decision, I shall argue that each equilibrium of this economy exhibits involuntary unemployment in the Keynesian sense. For there will always be another equilibrium with a lower real wage, a higher level of employment, and at which (at least when workers are risk neutral) each worker achieves a higher level of expected utility.     

Patinkin as a reader of Keynes’ General Theory: Are wage cuts a good remedy to unemployment?1

Abstract

This paper analyses Patinkin's appraisal of Keynes’ concept of involuntary unemployment while focusing on his reading of the General Theory Chapter 19. On several critical issues, Patinkin departs from Keynes’ original matters of concerns. He leans against an individual criterion for unemployment and implicitly endorses Wicksell's understanding of voluntary unemployment as chosen leisure. His appraisal of involuntary unemployment as a disequilibrium phenomenon ultimately relies on nominal rigidities and assumes the existence of a competitive adjustment process. On all these three critical points, Patinkin departs from Keynes but also initiates the contemporary New Keynesian programme that went even further from Keynes.     

Consumption and the Within-household Income Distribution: Outcomes from an Australian "Natural Experiment"

Does the within-household distribution of income influence householdconsumption patterns? In one attempt to answer this question,Lundberg, Pollak and Wales (1997) exploited the ‘naturalexperiment’ of a change in family benefits in the UK.They found that the within-household income distribution didhave a significant impact on expenditure. This paper exploitsa similar natural experiment in Australia. During the 1990s,unemployment benefits for unemployed married couples changedfrom being paid almost entirely to husbands, to being paid primarilyto wives. Using household expenditure data it is found that,although the changes in the within-household income distributionwere large, the changes in expenditure patterns were small andnot in the expected direction. The data do not, therefore, providesupport for the hypothesis that women's control over householdexpenditure was increased. The paper concludes with a discussionof the possible reasons for this. (JEL J10, J12, I38)     

FIRM HETEROGENEITY AND THE LABOR MARKET EFFECTS OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION*

This article develops a model that incorporates workers' fair wage preferences into a general equilibrium framework with heterogeneous firms. In a setting where the wage considered to be fair by workers depends on the productivity of the firm they are working in, we study the determinants of profits, involuntary unemployment and within‐group wage inequality. We use this model to investigate the effects of globalization, thereby pointing to distributional conflicts that have so far not been accounted for: a simultaneous increase of average profits and involuntary unemployment as well as a surge in within‐group wage inequality.     

Quantity Expectations and Unemployment in Non-Walrasian Economics

The paper explores why different regimes of unemployment might emerge and what the role of quantity expectations is. Suppose that both households and firms take quantity rationing expectations into account. Then it can be shown that involuntary unemployment in the sense that effecdtive demand is deficient would occur as long as households react to the quantity (constraint) expectations more strongly than firms do. We also show that only when households are more pessimistic than firms are do quantity expectations exhibit “bootstraps” property, i.e., the regime of Keynesian unemployment is more likely than that of Classical unemployment to emerge today if people expect that Keynesian unemployment will prevail tomorrow. [020]     

Sequential Markets: An Experimental Investigation of Clower's Dual-Decision Hypothesis

Countless experimental studies have shown that markets converge quickly and efficiently to the competitive outcome under many trading institutions, particularly the double auction mechanism. This creates difficulties for Keynesian stories of unemployment creation—which suggest a noncompetitive outcome in an essentially competitive world. Such stories were popular in the late 1960s and 1970s. One of these stories—the dual decision hypothesis of Clower—was seen then as the beginning of a story of unemployment. This article reports the results of an experiment designed to test this hypothesis. Specifically, we set up an experiment in which there are two sequential double-auction markets, in the first of which one good (labour) is traded, after which the second market (goods) is opened and the second good traded. We compare the outcome of our experiment with that of the competitive theory. One general finding is that not enough trade takes place in the two markets. In other words, the usual finding that competitive equilibrium is achieved in double-auction markets is not replicated in this sequential setting. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.