浅谈人民币汇率升值对我国经济及外贸的影响

本文分析了人民币汇率升值的原因,阐述了人民币汇率升值对我国经济及外贸的有利影响、不利影响,并针对人民币汇率升值对我国经济及外贸的影响,提出了对策.     

浅谈人民币汇率升值对我国外贸的影响

汇率作为国际价格体系的重要组成部分之一，是影响一国和地区对外贸易发展的一个重要因素。自从中国加入世界贸易组织，人民币汇率与我国对外贸易的关系更加日益密切。人民币升值对我国外贸的影响是多方面，深刻认识人民币汇率升值对我国外贸的影响是国家经济安全的需要。     

人民币升值对我国外贸的影响

汇率问题是关系国民经济的一个重要国际金融问题,汇率的升贬值都会对一国外贸产生重要影响。本文在分析人民币升值背景的基础上,结合实际论述了人民币升值对我国进出口贸易的有利和不利影响,并就如何应对人民币升值对我国外贸的不利影响提出了对策建议,以期进一步促进我国对外经济及国内经济的可持续发展。     

人民币汇率升值对中国外贸的影响及对策建议

改革开放以后，我国的对外贸易发展的越来越繁荣，在外贸发展的过程中，受到汇率的影响比较大，无论汇率是升值还是贬值的情况。近些年来，人民币汇率一直处于升值的状态，给我国的外贸带来了双向的影响，积极作用与消极作用并存，为了避免消极作用对外贸的影响，本文对人民币汇率升值对外贸的影响做出了研究，并提出了具体的对策建议，以期能促进中国外贸的健康发展。     

浅议人民币汇率变动与贸易顺差的相互影响

随着我国经济的发展和经济实力增强,人民币在国际市场上面临严峻的升值压力,人民币的升值必然对我国对外贸易的发展产生一定的影响。人民币汇率的变化与贸易收支的平衡,是中国对外开放经济环境下,国内外平衡的主要经济问题。目前我国的贸易顺差比较大,尤其是对美国的贸易顺差很大。因此,也引发了迫使人民币汇率升值来调节外贸平衡的争论。本文将从实际情况出发,对人民币汇率和我国的贸易顺差相对变化进行分析,然后进一步讨论人民币汇率变动对我国国际贸易(贸易顺差和贸易逆差)所产生的影响。最后,本文就如何控制好人民币升值速度,稳定人民币汇率,促进对外贸易健康发展,分别从政府和企业层面提出相应的对策建议。在了解人民币升值的背景、原因及过程的基础上,重点从正反两方面分析人民币升值对我国对外贸易的影响,进而探寻针对人民币升值的应对策略及措施,以促进我国对外贸易健康、有序地发展。     

人民币汇率升值对我国进出口贸易的影响及应对

本文介绍了我国近年来对外贸易的发展状况以及相应的人民币汇率的变化情况,同时分析了近年来人民币汇率升值对我国进出口贸易及经济发展产生的很多双面的影响,我们不难发现如何应对人民币汇率升值已经成为外贸经济发展的一个核心问题。     

人民币汇率升值对河南出口企业的影响

2005年7月21日,中国政府宣布人民币汇率实行有管理的浮动汇率制度。自此,有关人民币汇率升值对未来中国经济的影响成了理论界关注的热点。研究人民币汇率升值对中国外贸环境的影响,分析了人民币汇率升值对河南出口企业的影响,使河南省出口企业继续保持低成本竞争优势。     

人民币升值对外贸的影响分析

本文首先回顾了自新中国成立以来,我国人民币汇率制度的发展历程,进而分析此次人民币升值的背景及趋势;其次重点分析了人民币升值对外贸的影响,从宏观环境、外贸环境和微观层面三个角度对进出口企业进行分析;最后从完善人民币汇率机制、改善外贸环境、建立健全外汇风险管理机制,以及完善配套机制和资源四个方面,提出了应对人民币升值的政策建议。     

人民币贬值对我国进出口贸易的影响与对策

汇率是调节国际贸易的重要杠杆,影响着一国的收支结构、物价水平甚至是国际间的资源配置。改革开放以来,我国经济飞速发展,人民币汇率成为国内外关注的焦点。近年来人民币持续升值,但是在最近半年却出现了持续下跌的现象。外贸经济与汇率息息相关,进出口贸易在我国经济中占有重要地位,本文研究人民币贬值对我国进出口贸易的影响及应对。     

人民币升值与我国外贸商品结构优化分析

文章分析汇率波动对外贸商品结构的影响机制,人民币汇率波动下我国外贸商品结构的变化,并进一步针对汇率波动对我国外贸商品结构的调整效应进行深入的理论探讨,通过数学推理,指出人民币升值有利于外贸商品结构的优化,并提出对策。     

汇率预期对中国通货膨胀影响的实证研究

汇率预期主要通过货币替代效应、资产价格效应和进口价格效应影响物价水平。递归VAR模型检验结果表明:2002年以来的人民币升值预期对本轮通货膨胀影响显著,其中,资产价格效应、货币替代效应、进口价格效应依次增强,影响主要集中在前期;同时,汇率预期变量对工业品出厂价格指数、消费者价格指数及货币供应量的影响都十分明显。     

论司法的社会效果——由张明宝案引发的思考

法律实效包括法律效果与社会效果,当今司法越来越重视法律的社会效果,且强调二者的统一,＂6.30＂案就是一个很好的说明。重视法律的社会效果有充分的理论依据与现实依据,但是过分强调也有不合理性。正确的态度是将法律效果作为司法的首要目的,追求社会效果时应当保持克制、理性,法律效果与社会效果无法完全统一,只能趋近。     

Decomposing the sales promotion bump accounting for cross-category effects

Extant research on the decomposition of unit sales bumps due to price promotions considers these effects only within a single product category. This article introduces a framework that accommodates specific cross-category effects. Empirical results based on daily data measured at the item/SKU level show that the effects of promotions on sales in other categories are modest. Between-category complementary effects (20%) are, on average, substantially larger than between-category substitution effects (11%). Hence, a promotion of an item has an average net spin-off effect of (20 − 11 =) 9% of its own effect. The number of significant cross-category effects is low, which means that we expect that, most of the time, it is sufficient to look at within-category effects only. We also find within-category complementary effects, which implies that competitive items within the category may benefit from a promotion. We find small stockpiling effects (6%), modest cross-item effects (22%), and substantial category-expansion effects (72%). The cross-item effects are the result of cross-item substitution effects within the category (26%) and within-category complementary effects (4%). Approximately 15% (= 11% / 72%) of the category-expansion effect is due to between-category substitution effects of dependent categories.     

中国财政政策动态效应的实证分析:1998~2004

本文对中国1998~2004年间实行的积极性财政政策的动态效应进行了实证研究。基于对数据性质的考察,我们选用了结构性VECM模型来研究。在结构性模型中,我们引入了长期约束和短期约束来识别宏观经济变量中的冲击向量,并利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法,对冲击向量的动态效应进行实证研究。模型的实证结果表明,财政支出冲击对总产出具有正向效应而税收收入冲击则具有负向效应,且支出冲击的正效应略大于税收收入的负效应。该结论印证了凯恩斯主义关于财政政策的主要结论。同时实证结果对我国1998年以来的积极财政政策的效果给予了支持:增加财政支出的效应很大程度上被同期税收收入的增长所抵消,财政政策对产出的贡献并不像预期的那么显著。     

The Sensitivity of the General Price Level to Changes in the Price of Crude Oil

There are many direct and indirect effects of changing crude oil prices on the inflation rate, so it is not surprising that there are different views about the resulting effects on the general price level and also on other aspects of the general economy. This study, estimates the direct and indirect effects of oil price changes on the economy-wide rate of inflation, which then has effects on spending and producing decisions. However, in this forum, we do not try to estimate the full indirect effects on the level of economic activity, such as effects on real GDP. JEL Classification E310, E370     

The Effects of Market Makers and Stock Analysts in Emerging Markets

We exploit a quasi‐experiment to examine the effects of market makers and stock analysts in three emerging stock markets. We find substantial differences in the effects across markets, and in contrast to existing literature, the effects of market makers are not always positive. Our results suggest that the structure of market makers' agreements and compensation matters for their effects on market quality. Stock analysts, on balance, have marginally positive effects on liquidity and informational efficiency. The benefits of market makers are weaker in the presence of stock analysts, and vice versa, suggesting that market makers and stock analysts are more like substitutes than complements in their effects on market quality.     

New measures of trade creation and trade diversion

This paper estimates the effects of regional agreements on trade flows controlling for country pair, importer-year, and exporter-year fixed effects. These fixed effects capture the determinants of trade flows normally included in gravity model specifications and control for yearly shocks to countries' trade. Controlling for the fixed effects generally reduces the estimated trade impacts of regional agreements. The estimates reveal that regional agreements have significant anticipatory effects on trade flows and continue to affect trade for up to 11 years after they begin. The paper also presents estimated effects on individual countries' trade flows in year five of the agreements.     

东亚生产网络分工提高了我国制造业的出口竞争力吗

在梳理东亚生产网络分工影响制造业竞争力的作用机理基础上,基于面板数据模型,验证了东亚生产网络分工对我国制造业出口竞争力的影响。实证分析结果表明:结合影响制造业行业竞争力的国内因素进行考察,东亚生产网络分工对我国制造业整体以及不同行业的出口竞争力均具有促进作用。进一步将东亚生产网络分工的作用效应进行分解,发现东亚生产网络分工主要是通过劳动生产率提升效应、技术外溢效应途径提升我国制造业整体的出口竞争力,但理论上所预期的规模经济效应并未发生促进作用。东亚生产网络分工对我国制造业出口竞争力的作用途径在制造业不同部门存在显著差异,一方面,资本、技术密集型制造业的出口竞争力的提升在很大程度上是由东亚生产网络分工所导致的劳动生产率效应所驱动,即便是此类融入东亚生产网络程度很高的制造业行业所获得的技术外溢效应并不显著。另一方面,劳动密集型制造业部门出口竞争力的提升却并非由东亚生产网络分工所导致的劳动生产率提升效应、技术外溢效应所推动。这种分工状况容易导致我国制造业比较优势的锁定效应,压缩我国制造业出口竞争力提升的空间。     

Are the Direct and Indirect Growth Effects of Remittances Significant?

Development economists believe that migrant workers’ remittances are an important source of funds for long‐run growth. Therefore, recent studies have investigated the growth effects of remittances but reached different conclusions. In these studies, the rate of growth of output is simply regressed on both remittances and the channels through which remittances affect growth. Thus, no distinction has been made between the indirect and direct growth effects of remittances. Such regressions may give unreliable estimates because the channels may also capture some growth effects of remittances, making the growth effects of remittances insignificant. In this study, we make a distinction between the indirect and direct growth effects of remittances. Our model is estimated with panel data of 40 high remittance recipient countries with the system generalized method of moment. We found that remittances have no direct growth effects but they have small indirect growth effects.     

In search of WTO trade effects: Preferential trade agreements promote trade strongly, but unevenly

The literature measuring the effects of WTO membership on trade flows has produced remarkably diverse results. Rose (2004) reports a wide range of empirical specifications that produce no WTO effects. Tomz et al. (2007) use Rose's data but include de facto WTO membership, to find positive WTO trade effects. Rose (2005) also produced positive WTO trade effects after accounting for the diverse trade effects produced by individual preferential trade agreements (PTAs). When Subramanian and Wei (2007) emphasize general equilibrium trade effects by controlling for multilateral resistance, they find strong WTO trade effects only for industrialized countries. Subramanian and Wei (2007), however, account neither for unobserved heterogeneity among trading partners, nor for differences in trade effects across PTAs (which could inflate WTO estimates). We unify the Rose, Tomz et al., and Subramanian and Wei specifications in one comprehensive approach that minimizes omitted variable bias to show that all specifications produce one consistent result: WTO effects on trade flows are not statistically significant, while PTAs produce strong but uneven trade effects. Extending the gravity model to address specific avenues in which WTO may have affected trade flows, we find that WTO membership boosts trade prior to PTA formation and increases trade among proximate developing countries (at the expense of distant trade). An augmented gravity model that accounts for WTO terms-of-trade theory shows that countries with greater incentives to bargain for tariff reductions before WTO accession experience positive and significant subsequent WTO trade effects.