Housing markets and the economy: the assessment

Housing markets have multiple interactions with the rest ofthe economy and these are surveyed in this paper. The driversof house prices include income, the housing stock, demography,credit availability, interest rates, and lagged appreciation,the latter a potential mechanism for overshooting. There israther less agreement on the determinants of new construction,though planning constraints are widely seen as a major issueand one of the causes of the UK housing affordability problem.The paper argues that housing collateral and downpayment constraintsare the key to understanding the role of house-price variationsin explaining medium-term consumption fluctuations. Institutionalvariations between countries and over time account for majordifferences in linkages between house prices and economic activity.This illuminates debates about how monetary and other policyshould react to house-price variations. The paper also discussesthe role of housing markets in explaining regional migrationand location decisions, intergenerational inequality, and restrictingaccess of the less affluent to public goods, such as good schools,which are capitalized in local house prices.     

住房、负债与家庭股市参与——基于CHFS的实证研究

房产是家庭总资产的重要组成部分，近些年中国家庭在房产上的过度追逐必然影响到家庭的股票投资行为。不同于以往的研究思路，文章运用中国家庭金融调查数据，不仅研究了住房对家庭股市和风险资本市场参与的影响，验证了已有学者得出的住房对家庭参与金融市场的挤出效应；又进一步研究了不同类型的住房负债对该挤出效应的影响程度。首先，文章研究发现，住房对家庭参与股市和风险资本市场有显著的挤出效应，住房不仅降低了家庭进入股票和风险资本市场的概率，也降低了家庭参与股票和风险资本市场的深度。其次，文章研究发现，房屋负债抑制了住房对家庭股市参与的挤出效应，但房屋正规贷款和房屋民间借款对股市参与的影响相反，房屋正规贷款能够促进家庭参与股市，降低住房对股市参与的抑制作用；但房屋民间借款的存在增加了住房对家庭股市参与的挤出效应。文章认为，严控住房市场，抑制家庭多套房的投资行为，使多余的资金合理的流向金融市场，深化金融市场，才能促进金融市场健康有序的发展。     

住房市场过滤效应实证研究——以保定市为例

针对住房过滤现象,运用Markov Chains基本原理,构建空屋链模型,研究住房市场过滤过程。通过住房子市场空屋转移的特性分析,计算出空屋转移概率小于0.5,空屋链长度最大值为1.66。研究结果表明保定市的存量房市场不成熟,住房的多层级梯度消费没有形成,市场过滤作用不明显。     

中国资产价格财富效应的比较与检验

文章对1991--2006年中国住宅和股票市场价格波动的财富效应进行实证检验,并利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解进一步分析消费对资产价格波动冲击的动态响应过程。结论表明,现阶段中国住宅市场和股票市场价格波动的财富效应整体上均呈现为负向效应,且住宅市场价格波动对消费的影响滞后期较长,影响力度高于股票价格波动的影响力度。因此,必须采取有力措施保持资产价格与经济基础的均衡关系,防范负财富效应对我国整体经济造成的负面影响,为资产价格发挥积极财富效应创造良好市场环境。     

对上海市住房市场的实证非均衡分析

文章首先通过理论分析表明,住房市场是一个非均衡的市场。随后把上海短期住房市场分为增量房和存量房两个市场,运用非均衡市场的供需函数模型对其进行了定量实证分析。结果表明住房市场的非均衡程度很高,因为上海住房市场中需求缺乏价格弹性,而对未来房价的预期使得投资需求的     

股价和房价影响我国消费的比较分析

文章在持久收入假说（PIH）或生命周期理论（LCT）模型的框架下,运用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验和OLS回归方法对1997-2006年股价和房价影响我国消费的效应及其大小进行了实证研究和比较分析,结果发现资产的财富效应较弱且房价对消费的效应大于股价的效应,最后提出了相应的启示。     

Housing for blacks: A challenge for kansas city

City planners, neighborhood groups and financial institutions, and other business partners need to develop a comprehensive plan to increase affordable housing for minorities and to integrate neighborhoods. Kansas City, Missouri is a city with a high potential for good housing for all of its citizens, but adequate housing continues to elude many of its black residents. Compared to other U.S. cities of similar size, Kansas City has good housing stock, but a large number of black people are suffering from a shortage of low rent housing. In addition, among Kansas Citians, blacks have the lowest quality housing stock. Two reasons for the deficit in housing for black Americans in Kansas City are demolitions among the low-rent housing stock and discrimination in housing rentals.     

东亚地区股市合作的现状及战略思考

文章在给出股票市场合作概念的基础上,提出现阶段的东亚股票市场合作的内容应包括股票市场监管的合作、证券交易所的合作和交叉上市。本文基于这三方面内容分析东亚股票市场合作的发展现状及存在的问题,并针对问题提出了东亚股票市场合作的发展战略。     

山西票号人身顶股制激励机制分析

山西票号在历史上取得了辉煌的成绩,其有效的激励机制一直备受关注,本文将尝试分析人身顶股制是如何解决委托代理关系中道德风险问题的。鉴古可知今,理解山西票号激励机制发挥作用的根本原因,可以为现代企业制定激励措施提供参考。本文认为人身顶股制激励强度是合理的,并认为身股等级制、故身股和花红等身股给予方式和分红方式起到了重要激励作用,与激励强度同样重要。     

论预售商品房再转让的正当性及其法律规制

预售商品房再转让行为在预售商品房交易市场中大量存在,由于市场发展的不成熟和相关立法的有待完善,使得过度投机行为成为再转让市场中最大的弊病,给预售商品房再转让带来了较大的负面影响。因此,法学理论界对是否应允许预售商品房再转让行为的存在,一直没有达成共识。本文从预售商品房再转让行为的法律性质上分析,指出预售商品房再转让实际上就是合同的权利转让或合同权利义务的概括转让,有其存在的正当性。在此基础上,针对其实践操作中存在的问题,就如何对预售商品房再转让行为加以有效的引导和规范提出了一些建议。     

房地产市场和股票市场周期波动的关系研究——基于上海的实证分析

本文应用Augment Dickey-Fuller检验、EG协整检验、Granger-cause检验等计量方法,对1999年1月～2008年12月的中房上海综合指数和上证综合指数、上证地产股指数的月度数据进行实证分析。结果表明,上海房地产市场与股票市场之间的波动呈现出一定的相关性,且股票市场对房地产市场的带动作用更明显;房市与股市之间存在着滞后效应。最后针对投资和调控给出若干建议。     

South Africa's Emergency Housing Programme: A prism of urban contest

The Emergency Housing Programme (EHP) is an important subsidy tool in South Africa. The EHP was designed to realise the right to housing and ensure that municipalities rapidly respond to emergency housing situations. However, the programme's implementation has been harshly critiqued by activists, academics, and even other state departments, for a range of valid reasons. This paper explores the findings of a year-long research project consisting mainly of case studies, interviews, workshops and policy review aimed at understanding these criticisms. The research found that the EHP implementers are constrained by conflicted urban development imperatives that include: systemic housing demand, building investment-friendly and efficient cities, and other developmental programmes. This paper argues for a reading of the implementation of EHP as problematic prioritisation, rather than simply one of poor provision. In this way, EHP serves as a prism for urban contest and advocate for more strategic, holistic, and progressive urban decision-making.     

Asset Price Bubbles: Existence,Persistence and Migration

Econometric tests are performed for the detection and migration of asset‐price bubbles in the housing, currency and stock markets of seven countries. This set of countries includes both developed and emerging economies that have good historical data on housing prices. Our empirical results suggest that this type of exuberant behaviour in prices occurs more frequently in the housing market than in the currency and stock markets. Additionally, we find significant evidence of bubble migration across markets within some of the studied countries.     

Condition and Prospects of the Development of the Housing and Utilities Sphere in the Mari El Republic

The article has considered the conceptual foundations of business management in the housing and utilities sphere. The condition of housing stock in the Mari El Republic, as well as housing and the state of utility facilities and systems, has been monitored. A forecast for providing the Republic’s population with social housing and the priority regional project of the comfortable urban environment formation has been presented.     

Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy

In a similar way to the stock market, the housing market in China has often been portrayed as highly speculative, giving rise to “bubble” concerns. Over the last decade, residential prices increased every year on average by double digits in Beijing or Shanghai. However many observers and researchers argue that fundamentals of the housing sector, both sector-specific and macroeconomic, may have been the driving force behind housing price volatility. While existing empirical work exclusively relies on the government housing prices which may suffer from the well-documented downward bias, this paper uses original high frequency unit price as well as transaction series for the residential resale housing markets of Beijing and Shanghai between January 2005 and December 2010 to test alternative hypotheses about housing prices volatility.We propose a sequential strategy in five steps integrating several techniques previously developed in a piecemeal and scattered way. First, we construct daily hedonic prices. Second, in order to search for the possible presence of bubbles on such high-frequency data, we propose using recently developed tests of an explosive root as an alternative to the unit root hypothesis. The third step is generated by the necessity of handling microstructure noise present at a daily frequency, thus filtering the raw data to extract a random walk component. The fourth step extracts a slowly changing monthly volatility component from the filtered daily hedonic real estate data. Finally, in so far as the presence of bubbles does not seem to characterize the residential housing market in major Chinese cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, in a fifth step we show that fundamentals are able to explain slowly changing volatility, as well as transaction volumes in these first‐tier cities.     

New Labour and Community Protests: the Case of the Govanhill Swimming Pool Campaign, Glasgow

Taking the case study of a community based protest against the closure of a swimming pool in Glasgow, this paper seeks to raise important critical questions about some of the key ideas informing New Labour's urban policy agenda: social capital and active community. It argues that normative notions of active citizenship seriously conflict with bottom-up community protests, highlighting in the process issues of power and inequality. Against claims that New Labour is promoting government through community, here we claim that in the context of this community protest, there was government against community.     

Cultural policy as urban transformation? critical reflections on Glasgow, European city of culture 1990

This paper revisits Glasgow, European City of Culture 1990, and considers the main criticisms made of Glasgow's cultural policy as urban renewal strategy. It argues that while many of the criticisms made by opposition groups such as Workers' City were valid, and largely supported by the economic and social problems that have faced the City since 1990, nonetheless it also suggests that this critical response itself needs to be subjected to more thorough scrutiny. The paper claims that flagship cultural events can do little but gloss over and divert attention away from the major structural problems which characterise many ex-industrial cities and concludes by arguing that the lessons of Glasgow's experience are also very relevant for other cities such as Liverpool that are also increasingly embracing cultural policy as a route to urban transformation.     

Has China's Housing Production Peaked?

China's real estate has been a key engine of its sustained economic expansion. This paper argues, however, that even before the COVID‐19 shock, a decades‐long housing boom had given rise to severe price misalignments and regional supply–demand mismatches, making an adjustment both necessary and inevitable. We make use of newly available and updated data sources to analyze supply–demand conditions in the fast‐moving Chinese economy. The imbalances are then compared to benchmarks from other economies. We conclude that the real estate sector is quite vulnerable to a sustained aggregate growth shock, such as COVID‐19 might pose. In our baseline calibration, using input–output tables and taking account of the very large footprint of housing construction and real estate related sectors, the adjustment to a decline in housing activity can easily trim a cumulative 5–10 percent from the level of output over a period of years.     

Dynamic Spillovers in the United States: Stock Market,Housing, Uncertainty,and the Macroeconomy

In this study, we examine dynamic spillovers among the housing market, stock market, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the United States in a unified empirical framework. Applying the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) methodology on monthly data over the period 1987M1–2014M11, our findings reveal the following features. First, the transmission of various types of shocks contributes significantly to economic fluctuations in the United States. Second, spillovers show large variations over time. Third, in the wake of the global financial crisis, spillovers have been exceptionally high in historical perspective. In particular, we find large spillovers from EPU, as well as stock market and housing returns to other variables, in particular inflation, industrial production and the federal funds rate. These results illustrate the contagion from the housing and financial crisis to the real economy and the strong policy reaction to stabilize the economy.     

房地产上市公司股价影响因素实证分析

近年来,在持续的房地产调控政策影响下,我国商品房市场开始出现成交量大幅下滑,房价逐步松动下滑的现象。但在此期间,房地产上市公司股票价格不仅强于大盘走势,而且其波动幅度也高于房地产销售价格指数。为此,本文选择房地产上市公司股票价格指数为因变量,选择上证综指、发电量增长率、CPI、人民币贷款利率、房地产价格指数五个因素指标为自变量进行多元回归统计建模,模型检验结果表明,房地产上市公司股价波动除具有一般金融资产价格波动的系统性、集聚性等特点外,还具有与人民币贷款利率和房屋销售价格指数负相关的特点。受宏观调控政策的持续影响,中国当前房地产市场出现一定程度的扭曲,实体经济增长对房地产上市公司股价的影响不显著。