减税降费的价格和福利效应——引入成本传导率的投入产出价格模型分析

本文在增值税抵扣机制的投入产出价格模型中引入社保费和成本传导机制,并利用2017年中国投入产出表和税收数据模拟分析了不同成本传导率条件下,减税降费的价格效应和福利效应。研究表明:(1)减税降费使得各行业产品价格降低,对第三产业的价格影响最为明显。(2)成本传导率越高,则产品价格的下降幅度越大。当成本传导率分别为1/3、2/3和1时,各行业产品价格的平均下降幅度分别为0.32%、0.93%和2.66%。(3)较为合理的中国整体成本传导率约为1/3,减税降费是2019年中国PPI下降的主要因素之一。当成本传导率为1/3时,模拟计算的PPI下降幅度与国家统计局公布的2019年PPI的下降幅度(-0.3%)非常接近。(4)减税降费使消费者价格下降,居民福利得以改善,且城镇居民福利改善高于农村居民。随着价格传导率增大,城镇居民与农村居民的人均福利改善差距扩大。     

The ex-dividend day stock price behavior in the Chinese stock market

This paper analyzes the ex-dividend day stock price behavior in the Chinese stock market. This market allows to examine the impact of tax effects while keeping any microstructure factors constant. The findings from non-taxable stocks show that their price, on the ex-dividend day, falls by an amount that is not statistically different from the dividend. For the taxable sample, stock prices of small dividend yield stocks fall proportionally to the dividend paid. For the large dividend yield stocks, the price adjustment depends on the effective tax rate on dividend income. The overall findings are consistent with the tax hypothesis.     

TAX UNCERTAINTIES AND THE INVESTMENT DECISION

This paper investigates how the firm's investment decision is affected by uncertainties in the tax laws under an asymmetric structure of income taxation. Tax liability is modelled as a call option, and tax uncertainties are modelled as randomness in the exercise price of the call option. The effects on the investment decision are derived by evaluating the comparative statics of the optimal investment level with respect to the volatility of the exercise price. The central result is that the disincentive effects of the tax uncertainties are generally exacerbated under the tax asymmetry.     

完善消费税的思考

消费税计税价格核定与增值税的相关规定不衔接，不利于税款及时入库，难以防范纳税人偷漏税款；单一环节征税消弱了消费税的调节功能，难以形成完整的税收征管链条；价内税不能解决重复征税问题。为此，建议比照增值税的相关规定调整消费税计税价格，调整部分消费品征税环节，改价内税为价外税。     

Food prices,tax reforms and consumer Welfare in Tanzania 1991–2007

This paper analyses the effect of observed food price changes on household consumption (welfare) in Tanzania and from this simulates the welfare effect attributable to tax (tariffs and VAT) reforms. The three rounds of the Tanzania Household Budget Survey (1991/92, 2000/01 and 2007) are used to apply Deaton’s method based on median unit values (prices) and household budget shares. The results indicate that real price increases over 1991–2007 have reduced welfare of the average household by 20 per cent of 1991 income, and the loss was fairly evenly distributed between the 1990s and 2000s. The welfare loss was much greater for the poor, especially the rural poor (a 27 per cent reduction), compared to the non-poor (in particular the urban non-poor, who suffered a five per cent loss). Although we cannot establish explicit links between tax reforms and domestic commodity price changes, to assess the extent to which welfare changes can be explained by tax reforms we simulate the effects of tax changes on domestic price changes. The simulation shows that tax reforms (tariff reductions) offset the welfare losses for all household groups, especially in the 1990s; although the differences were small, the urban poor benefit more in relative terms from tax reforms whereas the rural poor benefit least (the effect on the non-poor was similar irrespective of location).     

Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and the price level:Background and beyond

The paper presents the fiscal theory of the price level in a variety of models, including endowment economies with lump-sum taxes and production economies with proportional income taxes. We offer a microeconomic perspective on the fiscal theory by computing a Slutsky-Hicks decomposition of the effects of tax changes into substitution, wealth, and revaluation effects. Revaluation effects arise whenever tax changes alter the value of outstanding nominal government liabilities by changing the price level. Under certain assumptions on monetary and fiscal behavior, the revaluation effect reflects the fiscal theory mechanism. When taxes distort, two Laffer curves arise, implying that a tax increase can lower or raise the price level and the revaluation effect can be positive or negative, depending on which side of a particular Laffer curve the economy resides. Jel Code: E31 · E52 · E62     

A two-state analysis of estate taxes and charitable bequests from the most generous decedents

This study uses Censored Quantile Regression (CQR) and probate records for the years 2000–2005 to analyze charitable bequests of the most generous decedents from two states, Virginia and Louisiana. We focus on the most generous decedents because they account for a large portion of total charitable bequests. The most generous decedents' charitable bequest tax price (i.e., one minus the marginal tax rate) elasticity is not significantly greater than one in both our full sample and the subsample of the decedents filing federal estate tax returns. Our finding suggests that allowing charitable bequests to be deductible is not a treasury efficient policy for the most generous decedents. We also find that the tax price and wealth effects for the most generous decedents are overestimated by the Tobit model that has been traditionally utilized by prior studies. Furthermore, filers' charitable bequests are predicted to decrease if the estate tax is repealed.     

税收价格论对强化税收征管的现实意义

税收价格论认为税收是纳税人为消费公共品而向政府支付的“价格”,税收征纳双方在本质上是平等的交换关系。借鉴税收价格论,应当以个人为基点,从利益交换关系的角度,赋予纳税人作为交换一方应有的权利。应在整个公共部门经济的全过程中体现税收本质上的平等交换关系,并以法律的形式予以确定和保护。引进税收价格论,对提供新的税收征管思路,强化税收征管工作,具有重要的现实意义。     

EX-DIVIDEND DAY PRICE CHANGES AND IMPLIED TAX RATES: AN EVALUATION

The ratio of price changes to dividends is sometimes used to assess personal tax rates and detect tax clientele for dividends. It is suggested here that the model is unable to detect possible tax effects, given the sample sizes available to most researchers.     

Taxes,tenders and the design of Australian off‐market share repurchases

In designing off‐market (self‐tender offer) share repurchases, Australian companies must consider the resulting potential tax benefits for different investor groups with consequent effects upon the supply of stock tendered by holders and the ultimate tender outcome. We develop and estimate a model of the stock supply curve that demonstrates less than perfect elasticity and incomplete tax arbitrage arising from ‘participation risk’ for potential arbitrageurs. We are able to estimate the extent of disequilibrium in prices involved in fixed‐price repurchases and show that it is substantial. We show that Australian Tax Office restrictions on the tender price range for Dutch auctions have meant that non‐participating shareholders have foregone some potential benefits through the transfer of tax benefits to (primarily institutional, low tax rate) successful tender participants. The results provide support for legislative changes proposed in 2009 (but not implemented as of mid 2011), which removed constraints on the allowable range of repurchase prices.     

DEBT REFUNDING AND SHAREHOLDER WEALTH: THE PRICE EFFECTS OF DEBT-FOR-DEBT EXCHANGE OFFER ANNOUNCEMENTS

This study examines the impact of debt refunding on common stock prices for a sample of 48 exchange offers announced from 1970 through 1981. Exchange offer announcements do not have a significant impact on average common stock returns but appear to produce idiosyncratic share price effects. Refunding-induced price effects were unrelated to several exchange offer characteristics including tax shield increases, exchange offer premia, and transaction costs of refunding. Common stock excess returns were negatively related to reductions in debt service payments and relaxation of dividend payment constraints. Thus, the evidence is consistent with theories predicting that certain debt refundings generate negative information-signaling price effects.     

Ex-dividend date stock behavior and the clientele effect: Evidence around a tax reduction

This study analyzes the behavior of stock prices around the ex-dividend date focusing on the effects of a major tax reduction. Using the 40 most heavily traded shares on the Santiago Stock Exchange, the study evaluates price drop ratios using various measures of ex-dividend day prices. The findings indicate that the dividend tax reduction has an effect on the price drop ratio; this result is consistent with the clientele effect hypothesis.     

Behavioral Public Finance: Tax Design as Price Presentation

In this essay we review the evidence from marketing research about price presentation of consumer products and discuss how these lessons have been applied—consciously or unconsciously—in the design of the U.S. tax system. Our perspective is that, in most situations, the designers of the tax system attempt to minimize the perceived burden of any given amount of tax collections. We allow, though, that in certain situations an additional goal is to maximize the perceived burden of others. We also investigate how, when the objective is to encourage a particular activity, price presentation may enhance the achievement of that goal for a given amount of tax subsidy. We conclude by addressing the ethical and normative implications of price presentation in the tax system.     

Monetary policy and labor market frictions: A tax interpretation

Replicating the flexible price allocation in models with nominal rigidities and labor market frictions that lead to an inefficient matching of unemployed workers with job vacancies, even if feasible, is generally not desirable. We characterize the tax instruments that implement the first best allocation and examine the trade-offs faced by monetary policy if these tax instruments are unavailable. Our tax interpretation helps explain why the welfare cost of inefficient labor market search can be large while the incentive to deviate from price stability is small. Gains from deviating from price stability are larger in economies with more volatile labor flows.     

A New Method for Estimating the Effects of Fuel Taxes: An Application to Thailand

This article proposes a new methodology for estimating the impactof fuel price and tax changes on the general price level andthe distribution of income and applies a model to Thailand usingdata for 1975–76 and 1981–82. Because the modelallows for pricing under international competition where taxincreases must be partially absorbed in reduced factor incomerather than always being passed on in higher consumer prices,the results are significantly different from those generatedby the more conventional cost-plus pricing rule. The inflationaryimpact of fuel tax changes is slight because of both the opennessof the economy and the low energy intensity of manufacturingand other production in Thailand. In contrast, taxes on importsengender price increases not only for imports but also for goodswhich substitute for imports. The model also indicates thatthe net effects of taxes on petroleum products (other than kerosene)are progressive in their distributional impact, relative toa tax on imports or consumption. A main policy conclusion ofthe study is that fuel taxes could be used to increase bothequity and allocative efficiency without inducing significantinflationary responses. It follows that in the current circumstancesof falling world oil prices, developing countries could generaterevenues needed for structural adjustment by increasing fueltaxes to maintain domestic petroleum price levels.     

The impact of the French Tobin tax

We analyze the impact of the introduction of the French Tobin tax on the turnover and measures of the liquidity and volatility of the affected stocks with nonparametric tests on individual stocks, difference-in-difference tests and other robustness checks controlling for simultaneous month-of-the-year and size effects. Our findings indicate that the tax produces a significant reduction in turnover and volatility (measured in terms of stock price volatility and the high–low price range) and inconclusive effects on liquidity when the latter is evaluated under the two dimensions of the estimated bid–ask spread and the Amihud (2002) price impact ratio.     

After-Tax Bond Yields When Tax and Coupon Payments Are Not Simultaneous

Typical after-tax bond yield-to-maturity calculations do not accurately reflect the timing of tax payments for the cash basis tax payer. The best of the methods gives reasonable yield estimates when the first coupon payment date is around May 15. As payment dates vary from May 15, bond values are affected by tax deferrals relating solely to the non-simultaneity of coupon interest and tax payments. These valuation effects, which are not measured by conventional bond models, can be significant, as demonstrated by model simulation and empirical tests which show that the bond market does price the coupon timing tax deferrals predicted by the model.     

Tax-induced clientele effects in the market for British government securities: Placing bounds on security values in an incomplete market

This paper develops a new methods for measuring tax effects in bond markets and presents empirical results for British Government Securities. The basic idea is to construct a least cost portfolio which, for investors in a given tax bracket, dominates a given bond. A portfolio is said to dominate a bond if it provides cash flows which are at least as great in every period, and has a lower price. In effect our method calculates an upper bound on the value of a bond to investors in a given tax bracket. The results demonstrate (i) the existence of clientele effects and (ii) the absence of an ‘effective tax rate’.     

Combining input-output analysis and micro-simulation to assess the effects of carbon taxation on Spanish households

This paper explores the effects of a tax levied on Spanish energy-related CO2 emissions. After justifying the relevance of carbon taxation in the Spanish context, we consider the introduction of a product (fossil-fuel) tax with a rate obtained through the ‘actual damage cost’ method. Our empirical analysis proceeds in two stages. First, we employ an input-output demand model to calculate the price changes after the introduction of carbon taxation. In a second stage, simulation with Spanish household micro-data for 1994 yields the environmental and economic effects of a Spanish carbon tax. We find a limited short-run reaction to the carbon tax, which hampers its environmental success. The carbon tax burden is, however, significant, with a proportional distribution across households.     

Transfer Pricing, Incentive Compensation and Tax Avoidance in a Multi-Division Firm

This article examines the relation between transfer pricing and production incentives using a model of a vertically integrated firm with divisions located in different tax jurisdictions. We show that if divisional profits are taxed at the same marginal rate, the transfer price should be set to minimize the compensation risk faced by the manager of the buying division. For the case where divisional profits are taxed at different marginal rates, we are able to characterize the trade-off between the tax savings from setting transfer prices to reduce profitability in the high tax jurisdication and the loss of effort attributable to the impact of tax avoidance on the incentive compensation system. Further, we show that if it is feasible to compensate the division managers using multiple performance measures, the transfer price should be used to minimize the firm's overall tax liability. Finally, we show that when authority to determine the transfer price must be delegated to one of the division managers, it is optimal to assign responsibility for setting the transfer price to the manager of the division with the most production uncertainty.