SUNSPOT EQUILIBRIA IN A PRODUCTION ECONOMY: DO RATIONAL ANIMAL SPIRITS CAUSE OVERPRODUCTION?*

We study a standard two‐period economy with one nominal bond and one firm. The firm finances the input with the nominal bond in the first period and its profits are distributed to the shareholders in the second period. We show that in the neighbourhood of each efficient equilibrium, a sunspot equilibrium also exists. It is shown that the equilibrium interest rate is lower than the efficient level and that there is overproduction in the sunspot equilibrium, under some conditions. However, there is no sunspot equilibrium if the profit share of the firm can be traded as well as the bond.     

DEPRIVATION,INEQUALITY AND WELFARE*

Welfare ranking of income distributions involves a trade‐off between equity and efficiency. A person's feeling of deprivation about higher incomes may be of a relative or absolute type. We consider an intermediate notion of deprivation, a convex mix of relative and absolute deprivations. We then look at the problem of welfare ranking of income distributions when welfare increases under a globally equitable redistribution and under an income increase that keeps intermediate deprivation fixed. All deprivation indices can be regarded as inequality indices but the converse is not true. We also provide a numerical illustration of our results.     

INEQUALITY AND WELFARE IN EEC COUNTRIES *

Inequality and welfare comparisons are performed using simple and generalized Lorenz curves and a number of ranking criteria suggested by Shorrocks and Foster, Dardanoni and Lambert, and Davis and Hoy, on Family Expenditure Survey data of nine EEC countries. The highest levels of inequality are observed in Italy and Greece and the lowest in Denmark, Belgium and France, whereas welfare is found to be relatively low in Greece and Ireland and relatively high in Belgium and France.     

Efficiency and prices in economies of overlapping generations

In a general economy of overlapping generations, I introduce a notion of uniform inefficiency, corresponding to the occurrence of a Pareto improvement with a small uniform destruction of resources [G. Debreu, The coefficient of resource utilization, Econometrica 19 (1951) 273-292]. I provide a necessary and sufficient condition for uniform inefficiency in terms of prices at a competitive equilibrium: an allocation is uniformly inefficient if and only if the relative price of the aggregate endowment in a given period into the aggregate endowment up to that period does not vanish over periods of trade, a sort of Modified Cass Criterion [D. Cass, On capital overaccumulation in the aggregative neoclassical model of economic growth: a complete characterization, J. Econ. Theory 4 (1972) 200-223]. Minimal assumptions on fundamentals are needed for such a complete characterization. Furthermore, proofs reduce to simple and short direct arguments. Finally, I verify that uniform inefficiency is preserved under perturbations, a property that might fail for the canonical notion of inefficiency. Remarkably, an allocation is uniformly inefficient if and only if a non-vanishing redistribution, like a social security mechanism, is welfare improving.     

Consumption dynamics in general equilibrium: A characterisation when markets are incomplete

We introduce a methodology for analysing infinite horizon economies with two agents, one good, and incomplete markets. We provide an example in which an agent's equilibrium consumption is zero eventually with probability one even if she has correct beliefs and is marginally more patient. We then prove the following general result: if markets are effectively incomplete forever then on any equilibrium path on which some agent's consumption is bounded away from zero eventually, the other agent's consumption is zero eventually—so either some agent vanishes, in that she consumes zero eventually, or the consumption of both agents is arbitrarily close to zero infinitely often. Later we show that (a) for most economies in which individual endowments are finite state time homogeneous Markov processes, the consumption of an agent who has a uniformly positive endowment cannot converge to zero and (b) the possibility that an agent vanishes is a robust outcome since for a wide class of economies with incomplete markets, there are equilibria in which an agent's consumption is zero eventually with probability one even though she has correct beliefs as in the example. In sharp contrast to the results in the case studied by Sandroni (2000) [29] and Blume and Easley (2006) [8] where markets are complete, our results show that when markets are incomplete not only can the more patient agent (or the one with more accurate beliefs) be eliminated but there are situations in which neither agent is eliminated.     

A characterization of inefficiency in stochastic overlapping generations economies

In this paper, we provide a characterization of interim inefficiency in stochastic economies of overlapping generations. With respect to the established body of results in the literature, we allow for sequentially incomplete markets and we remove the hypothesis of two-period horizons, by considering longer, though uniformly bounded, horizons for generations. The characterization exploits a suitably Modified Cass Criterion, based entirely on observable prices and independent of the length of the horizons of generations. For sequentially incomplete markets, we introduce a notion of unambiguous inefficiency, separating the inefficient intertemporal allocation of resources from incomplete risk-sharing. Unambiguous inefficiency reduces to inefficiency when markets are sequentially complete. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the hypothesis of two-period horizons is purely heuristic in establishing a criterion for inefficiency.     

The Cass criterion, the net dividend criterion, and optimality

Abel, Mankiw, Summers, and Zeckhauser [Assessing dynamic efficiency: theory and evidence, Rev. Econ. Stud. 56 (1989) 1-20] propose the net dividend criterion as an easy to use sufficient condition for optimality in general stochastic overlapping generations economies with production. We provide examples based on the criterion due to Cass [On capital overaccumulation in the aggregative neoclassical model of economic growth: a complete characterization, J. Econ. Theory 4 (1972) 200-223] and its extensions, the usual tools for such problems, to show that the net dividend criterion need not give the right answer. We identify the flaw in their proof. We also provide an alternative condition which, by an argument unrelated to theirs, is a sufficient condition for optimality when dividends are nonnegative and then argue that the condition is not innocuous since it cannot be verified in actual economies.     

INCREASING COSTS IN PRODUCT DIVERSIFICATION AND GAINS FROM TRADE*

The purpose of this paper is to extend a monopolistically competitive trade model with symmetric costs to one with asymmetric costs in product diversification. Both the trade pattern and the effects of the opening of trade on welfare are examined. It is shown that: (1)the larger country will be a net importer of differentiated products, which contradicts the result of Krugman (1980); (2)the greater the size of the country, the smaller is the share of the intra-industry trade, and (3)the larger the trading partner of a country, the larger are the gains from trade of the country. Some of these results duplicate those from recent studies. However, our results are based on asymmetric costs. In particular, (3) suggests that the presence of increasing-returns-to-scale technology does not always imply that the large country gains from its large market.     

INCOMPLETE FINANCIAL MARKETS,IRREVERSIBILITY OF INVESTMENTS AND FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY INSTRUMENTS*

In this paper, we analyse the use of fiscal and monetary instruments to improve long‐run welfare when productive investment is irreversible and uncollateralizable and there is no insurance. Only fiat money or government issued bonds provide self‐insurance. We demonstrate that an increase in precautionary savings reduces irreversible productive investment. Hence, subsidies to promote productive but irreversible investment should be financed in such a way that they do not reduce insurance capability. When lump‐sum subsidies are high, a consumption tax is likely to be more redistributive and thus more consumption smoothing than are the other sets of instruments analysed in our model.     

MIGRATION,MEDICAL AID AND WELFARE*

This paper constructs a simple rural‐urban migration model that explicitly incorporates the interactions between the individual's migration decision, the risk of incurring an infectious disease and unemployment. We show that providing a subsidy for health investment in urban regions in the form of medical aid does not improve individual welfare. This is because it induces further urban migration, increases the risk of infection and unemployment, and offsets completely the positive cost‐reduction effect.     

TOURISM,DUTCH DISEASE AND WELFARE IN AN OPEN DYNAMIC ECONOMY*

This paper examines the effects of an expansion in tourism on capital accumulation, sectoral output and resident welfare in an open economy with an externality in the traded good sector. An expansion of tourism increases the relative price of the nontraded good, improves the tertiary terms of trade and hence yields a gain in revenue. However, this increase in the relative price of nontraded goods results in a lowering of the demand for capital used in the traded sector. The subsequent de‐industrialization in the traded good sector may lower resident welfare. This result is supported by numerical simulations.     

CONSUMPTION (IN)EFFICIENCY AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT

Consumption may be inefficient when a household cannot choose the optimal bundle of goods at a minimum cost. After discussing alternative approaches, this paper proposes the use of money metric indirect utility function motivated by Feenstra and Varian in measuring consumption inefficiency. Then, Bamoul–Tobin transactions demand for money model is extended to show how household ability to manage its income, expenditure and financial accounts may affect consumption inefficiency. Results of the stochastic cost frontier approach, which is employed in estimation and the prediction of the European Union household consumption inefficiency, suggest that household expenditure performance is partly explained by the changes in the consumption efficiency and the efficiency is not independent of financial account management.     

General equilibrium, wariness and efficient bubbles

Wary consumers overlook gains but not losses in remote sets of dates or states. As preferences are upper but not lower Mackey semi-continuous, Bewley?s (1972) [4] result on existence of equilibrium whose prices are not necessarily countably additive holds. Wariness is related to lack of myopia and to ambiguity aversion (and, therefore, to Bewley?s (1986) [6] work on Knightian uncertainty). Wary infinite lived agents have weaker transversality conditions allowing them to be creditors at infinity and for bubbles to occur in positive net supply assets completing the markets. There are efficient allocations that can only be implemented with asset bubbles.     

INEQUALITY AND POVERTY IN JAPAN*

This paper presents a brief survey of inequality and poverty in Japan. It shows empirical evidence on the extent of both inequality in income distribution and of poverty rates; the paper discusses the cause of increases in both these variables, and the implication of such trends. The paper goes on to argue the difference between inequality of opportunity and inequality of outcome and shows some related empirical evidence. Finally, the paper investigates the relationship between economic efficiency and equity, supposed to be in a trade‐off relationship, and presents my personal view of that relationship and policy recommendations.     

TYPES OF PUBLIC CAPITAL AND THEIR PRODUCTIVITY IN JAPANESE PREFECTURES*

Several researchers have studied the productivity of public capital in Japan but most have not paid attention to the types of public infrastructure or differences in production technology between prefectures. We estimate prefectural production functions with differently aggregated public capital. Through the model selection process, we examine the types of productive public capital. The empirical results show the production technologies used and how types of productive public capital differ between prefectures.     

THE SECOND‐PRICE AUCTION SOLVES KING SOLOMON'S DILEMMA*

The planner wants to give k identical, indivisible objects to the top k valuation agents at zero costs. Each agent knows her own valuation of the object and whether it is among the top k. Modify the (k+ 1)st‐price sealed‐bid auction by introducing a small participation fee and the option not to participate in it. This simple mechanism implements the desired outcome in iteratively undominated strategies. Moreover, no pair of agents can profitably deviate from the equilibrium by coordinating their strategies or bribing each other.