Regional decentralization and fiscal incentives: Federalism,Chinese style

Aligning the interests of local governments with market development is an important issue for developing and transition economies. Using a panel data set from China, we investigate the relationship between provincial government's fiscal incentives and provincial market development. We report three empirical findings. First, we find that during the period of “fiscal contracting system” the discrepancy between ex ante contracts and ex post implementation was relatively small, suggesting that the fiscal contracts were credible. Second, we find a much higher correlation, about four times, between the provincial government's budgetary revenue and its expenditure during 1980s and 1990s as compared to 1970s, demonstrating that provincial governments faced much stronger ex post fiscal incentives after reform. Third, we find that stronger ex ante fiscal incentives, measured by the contractual marginal retention rate of the provincial government in its budgetary revenue, are associated with faster development of the non-state sector as well as more reforms in the state sector in the provincial economy. This holds even when we control for the conventional measure of fiscal decentralization. Finally, we compare federalism, Chinese style, to federalism, Russian style.     

Utilitarianism and horizontal equity: The case for random taxation

This paper reports on the use of an algorithm to compute optimal policies in the areas of commodity taxation, international trade and public shadow pricing for a government which is interested in redistributing income but has limited powers of taxation. The algorithm is applied to selected LDC data using a highly simplified general equilibrium model. Some insight into the relationships between constraints on taxation and other areas of government policy is provided by analyzing models where domestic tax restrictions can make inefficient public production or tariffs on international trade desirable.     

Clientelism and fiscal redistribution: Evidence across countries

This article marshals empirical evidence from a cross-section of up to 87 countries to consider the impact of clientelism on fiscal redistribution in the form of direct taxes and public transfers. Clientelism may directly undermine fiscal redistribution towards poorer individuals because their political support is cheaper to buy, political patrons will limit redistribution to keep clients dependent and, moreover, will eschew fiscal policies that target broad categories of citizens based on explicit criteria, and favor instead private benefits that they can disburse to individual clients with a relatively high degree of discretion. The empirical analysis controls for a range of potentially confounding covariates, explores various transmission channels and accounts for the real possibility that more extensive redistributive programs may undermine the strength of clientelism. The results strongly suggest that clientelism is inimical to income redistribution towards the poor through taxes and transfers and, moreover, identify reduced public good provision as one indirect channel through which clientelism may undermine fiscal redistribution.     

Using newspapers for tracking the business cycle: a comparative study for Germany and Switzerland

The use of news-based data for tracking the real economy has gained popularity recently as newspapers archives have become accessible and the need for timely information has soared. In this article, on the basis of keyword searches in newspaper articles we construct several versions of the so-called Recession-word Index (RWI) for Germany and Switzerland and exploit its use for forecasting. Our main findings are the following. First, we show that augmenting benchmark autoregressive models with the RWI leads to improvement in accuracy of one-step-ahead forecasts of GDP growth compared with those obtained by benchmark models. Second, the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts obtained with models augmented with the RWI is comparable to that of models augmented with established economic indicators, such as the Ifo Business Climate Index and the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany, and the KOF Economic Barometer and the Purchasing Managers Index in manufacturing for Switzerland. Our results are robust to changes in estimation/forecast samples, the use of rolling versus expanding estimation windows and the inclusion of a web-based recession indicator from Google Trends. As our indices are timely and simple to construct, they could be replicated in countries or regions where no reliable economic indicators exist or their provision is very costly.     

Efficient decentralized fiscal and environmental policy: A dual purpose Henry George tax

One consequence of decentralized responsibility to set tax policy and environmental standards is that local governments might try to attract industry and jobs by underproviding local public goods with lower taxes or lax environmental standards or both. But if local authorities exploit fixed property site (i.e., land) taxation to fund local public goods, affect firm migration, and internalize potential local emission rents, herein we find decentralized efficiency is supported. This result reflects a dual form of the classic Henry George theorem previously overlooked.     

Comparative fiscal illusion: a fiscal illusion index for the European Union

This paper provides an empirical analysis of fiscal illusion by estimating an index of fiscal illusion for 28 European countries over the period 1995–2008 employing a structural equation approach. Using Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes models, the paper investigates the main indicators of fiscal illusion and develops an index of fiscal illusion. It concludes that the chief determinants for the deployment of fiscal illusion strategies are the share of self-employment on total employment, the educational level of citizens, and the size of tax burden. At the same time, policy makers attempt to ‘conceal’ the real tax burden by means of debt illusion, fiscal drag, wage withholding taxes, as well as taxes on labour.     

Job insecurity,employability and health: an analysis for Germany across generations

In this article, we use 12 waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) to examine the relationship between job insecurity, employability and health-related well-being. Our results indicate that being unemployed has a strong negative effect on life satisfaction and health. They also, however, highlight the fact that this effect is most prominent among individuals over the age of 40. A second observation is that job insecurity is also associated with lower levels of life satisfaction and health, and this association is quite strong. This negative effect of job insecurity is, in many cases, exacerbated by poor employability.     

A tool for fiscal policy planning in a medium-term fiscal framework: The FMM-MTFF model

This paper describes the FMM-MTFF model, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model developed to support the implementation of a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) in emerging market and developing economies. The model exhibits the following features. First, fiscal policy is defined in terms of multi-year fiscal plans, instead of restricting attention to univariate, single-period fiscal shocks. Second, the model temporarily deactivates the fiscal rule to avoid forcing fiscal policy to be mechanically countercyclical and sustainable. Third, the model is calibrated to match a three-sector, stylized version of a country’s input-output table, and finally, the model uses a chain-weighted procedure to measure GDP, a method consistent with what national account compilers do. The model is calibrated to Colombian and Peruvian data to illustrate the use of the model as a tool to quantify the scale of the fiscal challenges, to provide consistent medium-term macro fiscal projections and to assess the quantitative implications of past reforms and alternative fiscal policy plans on the economies, i.e., the typical questions of interest to an MTFF.     

So alike,yet so different: Comparing fiscal multipliers across EU members and candidates

We estimate, using a Panel Vector Autoregressive approach and data from 2001Q1 to 2017Q1, the fiscal multipliers of the European Union (EU) members and candidates. These countries are grouped according to their stages of integration: original members, new Eurozone members, and candidates for the Eurozone and the EU itself. For each group, we assess the impact of a positive spending shock (expansionary) or a positive tax shock (contractionary) on GDP. Our findings suggest that: (i) rising government spending increases GDP in both the EU and Eurozone candidates (Keynesian multipliers), but slightly decreases it in the Eurozone members (non-Keynesian multipliers); (ii) higher taxes are associated with mixed results in terms of GDP dynamics - both increases and decreases in terms of GDP are found - in the four country groups (suggesting the presence of Keynesian and non-Keynesian multipliers). Overall, these outcomes indicate that spending multipliers are, compared to tax multipliers, more sensitive to European Union or Eurozone membership.     

The Handelsblatt Rankings 2.0: Research Rankings for the Economics Profession in Austria,Germany, and Switzerland

The distinguishing feature of all Handelsblatt rankings published over the last ten years is that they could draw on premium quality bibliometric data. We present here the new method used by KOF and DICE to compile the 2017 Handelsblatt Rankings of university departments and individual economists. As in previous years, the rankings are based on quality weighted journal publications. We show that the benchmark results are robust to various changes in the employed method, in particular to changes in the convexity of the journal quality weighting scheme. In conclusion, we show how the collected data can be used to provide customized evaluations of entire academic careers of individual economists.     

Generational accounts for Belgium: fiscal sustainability at a glance

This paper uses generational accounts to analyse the long term sustainability of Belgian public finances. We derive age-profiles of detailed tax and expenditure categories from micro data and microsimulation models, and plug them into a long run demographic projection. We assess fiscal long term sustainability under current fiscal and budgetary policy for the base year 2010, and perform simulations of counterfactuals to determine the relative contribution of the most important factors of the long run unsustainability. This update of the generational accounts for Belgium shows that, not unexpectedly, the budgetary situation in Belgium violates the intertemporal budget constraint and hence is unsustainable in the long run. The current level of explicit debt, however, only plays a minor role in explaining this sustainability problem. Ageing and the related increase in age related expenditures are the main drivers of the long run fiscal imbalance and the high level of implicit debt. We disentangle the Belgian generational accounts into their regional components and show that the major explanation for regional differences in generational accounts is not divergent demographic projections, but the wide differences in socio-economic situations, as revealed by the region specific age-profiles.     

Regional spillovers across transitioning emerging and frontier equity markets: A multi-time scale wavelet analysis

The episodic wave of crises experienced across the global financial markets over the past two decades has raised questions surrounding the vulnerability of transitioning emerging and frontier equity markets to exogenous shocks. These markets, by design, have lacked the institutional or financial architecture supporting their capital base compared to more established markets. We make the initial attempt to examine four such stock markets (Saudi Arabia, UAE, South Africa and Israel). We perform multi-timescale analysis using wavelet-based time and frequency decompositions in order to investigate (i) whether the shocks transmitted were pure contagion or fundamental-based and (ii) also whether the dynamic evolution of stock market integration was mainly short-term or long-term. We find that prior to the 2008/09 US subprime crisis, the shocks generated pure contagion in contrast to the subprime crisis that reveals evidence supportive of fundamental-based contagion. Further, when exploring the dynamics of market integration, we find that integration strengthens over time as opposed to any immediate short-term outcome. This supports policies engendered to promote stock market resiliency and stability.     

The information content of the term structure: Evidence for Germany

This paper studies the usefulness of spreads between interest rates of different maturities as indicators of future inflation and real interest rates in Germany, using monthly data starting in 1967∶1. The central results are twofold. First, the interest rate spreads considered contain considerable information about future changes in inflation, but no information about the time path of real interest rates. Second, the medium-term segment of the yield curve (spreads between 6 and 2 year rates, for instance) appears to be the most informative for future inflation. These results are similar to those obtained by Mishkin (1990b) and Jorion and Mishkin (1991).     

A new test for fiscal sustainability with endogenous sovereign bond yields: Evidence for EU economies

In this paper we develop a new test for fiscal sustainability and propose a synthetic fiscal sustainability indicator. Conventional tests based on fiscal reaction functions assume a constant real interest rate. However, many empirical studies find evidence on a positive response of long-term rates to sovereign debt levels. We take this evidence into account and endogenize the long-term real interest rate in testing fiscal sustainability. We apply the new test for the European economies. We find that considering the response of interest rate to debt may change the assessment of fiscal sustainability. More specifically, our results indicate that fiscal sustainability is at risk in a number of European Union economies, even if the results of traditional approaches suggest sustainable fiscal policy.     

A new rationale for industrial policy: developing the capabilities of the learning firm

Is government intervention justified in order to raise national competitiveness? Proponents of industrial policy have not, according to many economists, provided a convincing rationale for such efforts. The new rationale developed here builds on the insight that firms are capable of both organizational learning and behaving economically responsibly to society. Further, it draws on Japanese and USA experience with industrial policy, in particular the USA's success in the case of Harley Davidson, as well as the infant industry argument. The key questions are: can government interventions successfully influence the organizational learning of a nation's firms? And if so, under what circumstances?     

Visionary projects: a viable rationale for human space-flight?

Today's prevailing geo-political and socio-economic climate is proving unfavourable towards justifying on-going and future human space-flight programmes. Traditionally cited benefits, such as scientific and aconomic progress or political advantages, are widely deemed insufficient reasons for spending considerable amounts of public funds. A rationale for human space-flight, evoking visions such as exploitation of extraterrestrial resources or human exploration of space, has to cope with an unavoidable dilemma: attractive as they may appear, these projects are fraught with many grave uncertainties and risks. This paper attempts to answer the question over what, if any, significance such visionary projects may assume in justifying the continuation of human space-flight activities. We argue that, despite as yet unanswerable technological and economical questions, and despite the extremely long time-frames involved, it seems reasonable and, hence, justified to keep the option of being able to solve by means of humans in space the impending energy crisis in the coming century.     

Life with habit and expectation: A new explanation of equity premium puzzle

Previous writers have attempted to resolve the equity premium puzzle by employing a utility function that depends on current consumption minus (or relative to) past habit consumption. This paper points out that an individual's current utility may also depend upon how well off in the recent past he or she had expected to be today. Hence we add the concept “expectation formation” to the utility modification term in a model with a habit‐formation utility function. We apply the model to the equity premium puzzle and find that it is able to fit the data with a relatively low coefficient of relative risk aversion. Furthermore, we introduce an updated data sample and apply different values of discounting factors, and find that in all circumstances, the model is able to generate coefficients of risk aversion that are consistent with theory. Hence we conclude that the model is able to resolve the equity premium puzzle.     

Analyzing Educational Achievement Differences between Second‐Generation Immigrants: Comparing Germany and German‐Speaking Switzerland

In this study, I provide evidence that the educational achievement of second‐generation immigrants in German‐speaking Switzerland is greater than in Germany. The impact of the first‐generation immigrants' destination decision on their offspring's educational achievement seems to be much more important than has been recognized by the existing literature. I identify the test score gap between these students that cannot be explained by differences in individual and family characteristics. Moreover, I show how this gap evolves over the test score distribution and how the least favorably endowed students fare. My results suggest that the educational system of Switzerland, relative to the German system, enhances the performance of immigrants' children substantially. This disparity is largest when conditioning on the language spoken at home, and prevails even when comparing only students whose parents migrated from the same country of origin.     

Endowment,industrial structure,and appropriate financial structure: a new structural economics perspective

Standard policy advice at times of fiscal adjustment is to protect public spending on the poor. However, the political economy of fiscal adjustment could well indicate the opposite direction, to protect the non‐poor from adjustment. This point is illustrated by three case studies based on research on social programs in Argentina, Bangladesh, and India, focusing on how targeting performance varied with aggregate outlays. The results suggest a tendency for program spending on the non‐poor that is protected from budget cuts.