经济结构、无通胀增长与全球经济--新经济的另一种解释

本文假定美国确实有一个“新经济”，将讨论其事实根据，考察围绕“新经济”的争论和证据，探讨“新经济”的出现-如果它确实存在-可能对世界上其它地区包括亚太地区的经济产生什么影响。     

循规与违规--中国市场制度变迁的另一种解释

循规与违规都是人的理性行为。本文通过对循规与违规的特质和内在机理分析 ,指出在中国现行体制下循规未必是合理行为 ,相反 ,违规却存在深刻的必然性。关键是所循、所违之规是计划经济之规还是市场经济之规 ,制度规则是不是各方利益的均衡点。循规和违规具有两面性 ,体制转轨需要违反计划规则 ,遵循市场规则。但违规的路径依赖性使计划体制的违规者有可能转化为市场经济的违规者。随着市场化改革的深入 ,违规与权力关系日趋紧密 ,并向循规转化。     

经济萧条的另一种解释

经济萧条，学术界研究已多，但都不脱传统的增长周期、景气循环的理论窠臼，而本文以发达国家日本为典型案例，从可持续发展的角度立意，分析了静态社会在日本出现的可能前景，并以此反思了有关长期萧条、经济增长的主流见解。     

乡镇企业改制的另一种解释

对于乡镇企业的改制 ,一般的解释是企业内部的经营效率低下是推动政府改制的根本原因。但实际上 ,从现实观察到的却是有相当一部分地方政府对改制的态度是“靓女先嫁” ,即越是好企业越应当早出售 ,这对传统的解释是一个挑战。另一方面 ,理论界一直认为乡镇企业的大发展与政府对它的支持密不可分。但是 ,1 997年全国性的企业改制在很大程度上却又是由地方政府发起的。那么究竟是什么因素的变化造成了政府行为的彻底转变呢 ?这些问题都很难在出现的理论框架中得到满意的回答。本文发展出了一个理论模型 ,从中可以看到造成上述疑问的关键是 ,原有关于乡镇企业的解释忽视了改制其实是集体经济和私营经济争夺政府资源的结果 ,只有把改制放在中国市场化进程中政府支持的“含金量”下降的大背景下 ,才能真正理解改制的含义。     

美国的制造业与贸易赤字

(一) 众所周知,美国在历史上曾是工业最发达的国家,美国的产品在世界生产中约占40％,特别是美国的高技术和其他制造业产品在第二次世界大战后的将近20年中,在产品的质量和数量两方面均处于世界的领先地位,因此,美     

对中国经济转型成效的另一种解释

国内外学者从发展经济学和制度经济学角度对中国和前苏联市场化改革的原因和历程进行过分析(董辅(?),2001;程恩富等,2000;杨叔进,2000;关海庭,1999;张宇,1997;樊纲,1996)。而在实践中,中国选择的是社     

艮务贸易对经济增长的影响——知识产权保护视角的另一种解释

随着全球经济产业结构的不断升级,服务业增加值占GDP的比重已经由1980年的56．18％迅速攀升至2008年的68．95％,同期世界服务贸易额也由3650亿美元上升至37779亿美元,     

分销渠道冲突的成因与协调机制

从渠道冲突产生的原因和处理方法入手,探讨了分销渠道冲突及其成因和协调机制.     

关于地区经济差异变动的另一种解释

<正> 一、引言经济体制改革以来,随着地方经济权力的扩大和地方利益意识的增强,各个地方都把发展地区经济和增加地区收入作为主要任务和中心工作,地区经济的竞相发展和高速增长就成为中国经济运行和发展中一个具有特征性现象,东部沿海地区要追赶亚洲“四小龙”,提前进入小康;中西部地区要加快翻番,尽快摆脱落后状态。与此相适应,地区经济理论和地区经济研究也出现了初步繁荣的局面,在理论上和方法上都有不少进展,但也存在不少问题,主要有以下几个方面:1.虽然文章讨论的是地区经济差异,但却没有充分注意地区经济的特点以及地区经济比较和国际经济比较的区别和联系。2.虽然文章中心是讨论经济改革开始以后地区经济差异的变动趋势,但仅仅注意了国家地区经济政策的变化,而对于政策变化背后的     

欧盟《稳定与增长公约》及财政政策多元化协调

欧盟《稳定与增长公约》设立之初的目的是为了稳定欧元币值，但它同时限制了各国采用刺激手段促进经济。近几年德、法等国的高额赤字，使公约的有效性大打折扣，也使其面临调整的压力与挑战。经过激烈讨论，欧盟25国财长特别理事会于2005年3月就公约的改革达成初步协议，修改后的公约在保持各成员国预算同步方面起了重要作用。本文通过分析《经济增长公约》的主导思想及在执行过程中遇到的挑战和困难，及欧盟国家财政政策的多元化，找出其协调的可能性，并分析欧盟经济的稳定性对世界经济的影响。     

Asset bubbles,banking stability and economic growth

This paper examines the relationships between the asset bubble and the banking stability from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. The theoretical analysis demonstrates that the moral hazard caused by the deposit insurance and limited liability might facilitate the banks to hold bubble assets for the purpose of risk premium. Meanwhile the supervisory intensity, leverage ratio and credit spread provide the conditions for banks to hold bubble assets through their effects on risk premium. Once the banks hold the bubble assets, their stability will deteriorate because of four types of effects, namely internal leverage, cash withdrawal, credit friction and network effects. This paper also utilizes the BMA-PVAR model to test the theoretical findings by employing the data from 26 representative economies for a period between 2000 and 2014. The empirical evidences are consistent with the theoretical findings that the equity bubbles will lower the banking stability. The empirical evidences also suggest that the banking instability will be detrimental to the economic growth.     

Population growth and economic growth

This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize the exponential growth of population as the source of several complications for economic growth and human welfare. Stabilization of population by reducing fertility is conducive for improving the quality of population and also advances the longterm management of the population growth and work force utilization. The perspective of longterm economic management involves populatio n planning, control of environmental pollution, conservation of scarce resources, exploration of resources, realization of technological possibilities in agriculture and industry and in farm and factory, and achievement of economic growth and its equitable distribution.     

Expectational coordination in simple economic contexts

We consider an economic model that features (1) a continuum of agents and (2) an aggregate state of the world over which agents have an infinitesimal influence. We first review the connections between the ??eductive?? viewpoint on expectational stability and standard game-theoretical rationalizability concepts. The ??eductive?? reasoning selects different plausible beliefs that are a priori, and possibly a posteriori, ??diverse??. Such beliefs are associated with the sets of ??Cobweb tatonnement?? outcomes, ??Rationalizable States?? and ??Point-Rationalizable States?? (the latter two being shown to be convex). In the case where our model displays strategic complementarities, unsurprisingly, all our ??eductive?? criteria support similar conclusions, particularly when the equilibrium is unique. With strategic substitutabilities, the success of expectational coordination, in the case where a unique equilibrium does exists, relates with the absence of cycles of order 2 of the ??Cobweb?? mapping: in this case, full expectational coordination would be achieved. However, when cycles of order 2 do exist, our different criteria predict larger sets of outcomes, although all tied with cycles. Under differentiability assumptions, the Poincaré?CHopf method leads to other global stability results. At the local level, the different criteria under scrutiny can be adapted. They lead to the same expectational stability conclusions, only when there are local strategic complementarities or strategic substitutabilities. However, for the local stability analysis, it is demonstrated that the stochastic character of expectations can most often be forgotten.     

Macroeconomic stability and economic justice

This paper has benefitted from discussions with Thomas Naylor, Edward Kane, John Westerhof, Walter Benjamin, Loren Eckroth, Forrest Smith and Jane Sheffield.     

Macroeconomic stability and economic justice

This article presents a proposal to broaden the right to acquire capital with the earnings of capital as a means of promoting sustainable economic recovery and growth. It would open the markets for real and financial capital acquisition more fully and competitively to poor and working people (1) to distribute more broadly the earnings of capital and (2) to profitably employ more capital and labor. Both the recession and the strategies advanced to promote economic recovery may be viewed as responses to the prospect of inadequate present and future earning capacity of both consumers and producers (1) to purchase what can physically be produced and (2) to repay existent and anticipated debt obligations. To increase the prospects of sufficient, sustainable earning capacity, the proposal advanced in this article would extend to all people the same protections and benefits presently provided by government that facilitate market transactions whereby capital is acquired with the earnings of capital primarily for well-capitalized people. Although in theory, all people in a market economy are able to acquire capital with the earnings of capital, reliable empirical data reveal that as a practical matter, the major determinant of the ability of individuals to acquire capital with the earnings of capital is the existing distribution of capital ownership. The theory of “binary” economic growth underlying this proposal holds that the market return on capital is positively related to the distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital. The prospect of a broader distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital carries with it the prospect of more broadly distributed earning capacity in future years, which in turn will provide the market incentives to profitably employ more capital and labor in earlier years. The idea that the broader distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital will promote growth is not found in any of the widely accepted theories and models of economic growth such as those proposed by Schumpeter, Solow, Roemer, and Lucas. By opening to all people the institutions of corporate finance, banking, insurance, government loans and guaranties, and monetary policy (the very institutions presently relied upon by the Federal Government to stimulate the economy) the practical ability to acquire capital with the earnings of capital can be more broadly extended to all people with the result that greatly enhanced prospects for greater and more broadly distributed earning capacity and growth can be reasonably expected and realized by all.     

Planning and coordination of economic policy in market economies

The purpose of the paper is to analyze the experience of capitalist countries in implementing national economic planning. Planning procedures are examined in order to ascertain whether plans have succeeded in coordinating economic policy. Five operational criteria are formulated that must be satisfied by planning procedures if policy coordination is to be achieved. The planning experience of four capitalist countries, France, Japan, The Netherlands, and Sweden, is then evaluated in the light of the five operational criteria. The conclusion is that planning has been far from successful in coordinating policy.     

经济法与政府经济管理行为之法律机制

政府对于经济的作用,在我们国家表现得尤为突出.在市场经济体制改革被正式提出之前,政府是中国经济运行的绝对的中枢,它决定着中国经济的启动、运行、刹车的全过程,直到今天,我们的经济仍然无法摆脱历史的惯性.     

Adaptive economic growth

This paper develops an evolutionary theory of adaptive growth,understood as a product of structural change and economic self-transformation,based upon processes that are closely connected with but notreducible to the growth of knowledge. The dominant connectingtheme is enterprise, the innovative variations it generatesand the multiple connections between investment, innovation,demand and structural transformation in the market process.The paper explores the dependence of macroeconomic productivitygrowth on the diversity of technical progress functions andincome elasticities of demand at the industry level, and theresolution of this diversity into patterns of economic changethrough market processes. It is shown how industry growth ratesare constrained by higher-order processes of emergence thatconvert an ensemble of industry growth rates into an aggregaterate of growth. The growth of productivity, output and employmentare determined mutually and endogenously, and their values dependon the variation in the primary causal influences in the system.     

Cooperative economic growth

We comparatively study optimal economic growth in a simple endogenous growth model and under two different games, i.e., dynamic sequential game and cooperative stochastic differential game, between a representative household and a typical self-interested politician. Sequential equilibrium solution is derived by applying Backward Induction Principle and corresponding optimal economic growth rate is endogenously determined. Moreover, cooperative equilibrium solution is established with group rationality, individual rationality and sub-game consistency requirements fulfilled, and it is further confirmed that the representative household will save more, and the self-interested politician will tax less, thereby leading to much faster economic growth, when compared to those of the sequential equilibrium solution.