第五部分 五省区证券市场分析

一、西北地区参与我国证券市场的基本情况截至2004年12月底,西北地区有上市公司96家,其中在上海交易所上市的公司有61家,在深圳交易所上市的公司35家(包括暂停上市的长岭股份有限公司);均为A股,无B股和H股;总股本258.95亿股,流通股本104.12亿股,总市值1276亿元,流通市值497亿元     

数据

国内证券市场主要数据(截至2005年12月底)股票总市值流通市值总股本流通股本上市公司本年累计成交投资者开户当月底A股平均总市值占2004年(亿元)(亿元)(亿股)(亿股)总数(家)金额(亿元)数(万户)市盈率(倍)GDP比重(%)深圳证券交易所9334.153875.912133.65934.3054412620.93536.86     

对构建我国多层次证券市场的思考

中国证券市场经过十几年的发展，规模日益扩大，在国民经济中的地位日渐提高，已经成为社会主义市场经济的重要组成部分。据中国证监会统计数据显示，到2003年底，我国境内上市公司总数达1287家，总市值42457．71亿元，流通市值13178．51亿元。但我国证券市场存在着许多制约其进一步发展的问题，     

关于我国证券税制格局与功能的探讨

经过10余年的快速发展，我国的证券市场已经达到了相当的规模。到2006年底，境内上市公司已达1421家，总股本超过12656亿股，总市值达89404亿元，占当年GDP的45％左右。     

解读新疆上市公司

中国证券市场经过10年，已有了较快的发展，截止2000年11月，全国上市公司共1063家，总市值达46061亿元，流通市值15492亿元，总股本3586亿股，通过证券市场发行A股及配股共筹资4513亿元；至2000年底，新疆共有19家上市公司，截止到2000年11月，总股本37．87亿股，流通股13．91亿股，通过发行A股及配股筹资年底达62．01亿元，上市公司家数及筹资额分别占全国     

广西上市公司的持续发展与制约因素

上市公司是建立现代企业制度的先行者,也是经济效益的集中体现者.截止2003年4月底,中国境内上市公司已达2236家,总市值42729亿元,相当于2002年全国GDP的41.72%,筹集资金8977.83亿元.广西有20家上市公司,总市值427.93亿元,相当于2002年广西GDP的17.56%,筹集资金64.39亿元.这些上市公司,大部分是由国有企业改制,并在上市后,仍由国有股东控股.因此,上市公司持续发展状况如何,不仅关系到证券市场能否健康发展,而且关系到国有企业能否顺利建立现代企业制度的问题.     

透视我国上市银行股权结构

2005年的股权分置改革将中国股市快速推向全流通的通道。截至2009年12月,我国证券市场股票总市值达到243939亿元,其中,股票流通市值151258.65亿元,占总市值的62%。那么,就我国上市银行而言,经过股权分置改革的洗礼后,其股权结构展现的是一种什么样的特点?目前的股权结构是否能有效促进其绩效的提高?     

2004年西北五省区经济金融运行分析——第五部分 五省区证券市场分析

截至2004年12月底，西北地区有上市公司96家，其中在上海交易所上市的公司有61家，在深圳交易所上市的公司35家(包括暂停上市的长岭股份有限公司)；均为A股，无B股和H股；总股本258．95亿股。流通股本104．12亿股，总市值1276亿元，流通市值497亿元。1998年初至2004年末，西北地区通过证券市场直接融资(新股发行、已上市公司增发、配股等形式)约272亿元。目前，五省区共有证券公司11家。     

试析证券市场的发展对银行业务的影响

证券市场从无到有,证券融资对经济金融发展所起的作用力度越来越大,这是各国金融市场发展的一般历程。70年代以来,在发达国家和国际金融市场上,出现了金融证券化的趋势。在我国,近年来证券市场的发展速度惊人。1981至1990年,我国发行的有价证券余额不过才1754亿元,但1992、1993年就分别发行了约1500亿和1400亿元,1994年单是国债便发行1000亿。1992年深沪股市总市值不到1600亿元,到1993年便跃升至3534亿元,升幅一倍多。证券市场的发展,对银行业务的影响是巨大而深远的。     

货币政策对股票价格影响的实证分析

从2007年至今,中国股市牛市长居,股票价格波动不断,新股发行进入了历史的高潮。根据上海证券交易所的数据显示,截至2007年12月17日交易结束,上海证券交易所上市公司总市值达245,331亿元,流通市值57,205亿元,而2006年末的总市值为71,612.38亿元,流通市值为16,428.33亿元。股市升温及其不稳定影响到我国经济的健康发展。股市行情的波动和影响因素一直是金融领域关注的热点。本文将用西方经济学中的货币传导理论来分析货币供应量与证券市场的关系,找出解决问题的方法,控制引导股市健康发展。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.