PANEL DATA ANALYSIS OF JAPANESE RESIDENTIAL WATER DEMAND USING A DISCRETE/CONTINUOUS CHOICE APPROACH*

Block rate pricing is often applied to income taxation, telecommunication services, and brand marketing, in addition to its best‐known application in public utility services. Under block rate pricing, consumers face piecewise‐linear budget constraints. A discrete/continuous choice approach is usually used to account for piecewise‐linear budget constraints in demand and price endogeneity. A recent study proposed a method to incorporate a separability condition ignored by previous studies, by implementing a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation based on a hierarchical Bayesian approach. To extend this approach to panel data, our study proposes Bayesian hierarchical models incorporating random and fixed individual effects.     

Endogeneity and sample selection in a model for remittances

We estimate a remittance model in which we address endogeneity and reverse causality relationships between immigrants' remittances, pre-transfer income and consumption. In order to take into account the fact that a large share of individuals do not remit, instrumental variable variants of the double-hurdle and Heckit selection models are proposed and estimated by Limited Information ML; semiparametric extensions are considered as robustness checks. Our results for a sample of recent immigrants to Australia show that endogeneity is substantial and that estimates obtained by the methods previously employed in the literature may be misleading if given a behavioral interpretation.     

PAIRWISE DIFFERENCE ESTIMATION WITH NONPARAMETRIC CONTROL VARIABLES*

This article extends the pairwise difference estimators for various semilinear limited dependent variable models proposed by Honoré and Powell (Identification and Inference in Econometric Models. Essays in Honor of Thomas Rothenberg Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005) to permit the regressor appearing in the nonparametric component to itself depend upon a conditional expectation that is nonparametrically estimated. This permits the estimation approach to be applied to nonlinear models with sample selectivity and/or endogeneity, in which a “control variable” for selectivity or endogeneity is nonparametrically estimated. We develop the relevant asymptotic theory for the proposed estimators and we illustrate the theory to derive the asymptotic distribution of the estimator for the partially linear logit model.     

A direct test of the endogeneity of money: Implications for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries

This paper contributes to the ongoing discussion about the endogeneity of money supply by empirically investigating the GCC countries. We propose and implement a direct test of money supply endogeneity that depends on econometric specification of exogeneity which has not been used in the literature before. To be able to make comparisons with previous studies, we also conducted Granger Causality tests to analyze the causality relationship between bank credit and money supply. Both of the empirical studies provide empirical evidence for the endogeneity of money supply in GCC countries. The results of the paper have many significant monetary policy implications for the upcoming monetary unification of the GCC countries.     

Endogeneity in Semiparametric Binary Response Models

This paper develops and implements semiparametric methods for estimating binary response (binary choice) models with continuous endogenous regressors. It extends existing results on semiparametric estimation in single-index binary response models to the case of endogenous regressors. It develops a control function approach to account for endogeneity in triangular and fully simultaneous binary response models. The proposed estimation method is applied to estimate the income effect in a labour market participation problem using a large micro data-set from the British Family Expenditure Survey. The semiparametric estimator is found to perform well, detecting a significant attenuation bias. The proposed estimator is contrasted to the corresponding probit and linear probability specifications.     

Coordination of mobile labor

We study coordination failures in many simultaneously occurring coordination problems. Players encounter one of the problems but have the outside option of migrating to one of the remaining ones. Drawing on the global games approach, we show that such a mobile game has a unique equilibrium that allows us to examine comparative statics. The endogeneity of the outside option value and of the migration activity leads to non-monotonicity of welfare with respect to mobility friction; high mobility may hurt players. We apply these “general equilibrium’’ findings to the problem of the labor market during industrialization as described by Matsuyama [Increasing returns, industrialization and indeterminacy of equilibrium, Quart. J. Econ. 106 (1991) 617-650].     

Financial literacy and use of payday loans in the United States

Using the 2012 National Financial Capability Study, this study investigated the relationship between financial literacy and payday loan use. An instrumental variable approach was employed to address a possible endogeneity issue using a newly developed instrument of financial literacy based on the community network effect. Results from linear regressions indicated that financial literacy was associated negatively with the use of payday loans, and its effect was greater with the use of the instrument.     

Eagles and Turkeys: Human Capital Externalities,Departmental Co‐authorship and Research Productivity

Lucas (1988) hypothesised that human capital externalities explain persistent productivity growth and become manifest via interactions between workplace colleagues. Consistent with the first part of this hypothesis, Fox and Milbourne (2006) concluded that an increase in the average level of human capital in Australian economics departments raised the research productivity of departmental members. This paper tests the robustness of this finding by using a direct, rather than a proxy, measure of human capital and confirms the existence of human capital externalities within Australian economics departments. But we extend the analysis in two important dimensions. Firstly, we investigate the second part of Lucas' hypothesis by testing whether the externality becomes manifest via co‐authoring. We find no evidence that this type of interaction is associated with higher research productivity, especially for higher quality outputs. Secondly, we control for the likely endogeneity of one's peer group via instrumental variables estimation. In this case, we find that the peer group effect disappears completely for the highest quality outputs but remains for research output more broadly defined.     

Modeling endogenous monetary stock behavior. A Simultaneous Transfer Function approach

A structural model of demand and supply of money for the U.S. economy is estimated by the relatively new Simultaneous Transfer Function Method. This approach is motivated by (1) a need to impose valid identifying restrictions on the model and (ii) to facilitate a systematic specification search process. The endogeneity of monetary stock is effectively dealt with at two levels. Policy-wise endogeneity is handled by defining the money supply variable as a ratio of observed and exogenous monetary stock (based on reserves supplied by the Fed). Statistical endogeneity is captured in a Simultaneous Equations System. Empirical results show that commercial banks are able to alter observed monetary stock behavior when the profitability of creating new loans (deposits) increases. This accommodation is, expectedly, fairly small and instantaneous.     

Have Free Trade Agreements Created Trade? Evidence from CEPA

This paper revisits the issue of trade creation effects in multi‐stage free trade agreements (FTA). In contrast to the empirical studies that use the gravity equation to study trade creation effects, we apply a triple difference in differences approach to resolve their shortcomings, including factors being omitted and endogeneity. After the identification of treatment and control groups at the eight‐digit Harmonized System (HS) code product level, the regression analysis results show that there are no significant trade creation effects with the FTA, suggesting that the role of FTA may be a signalling beyond trade.     

Bayesian endogeneity bias modeling

We propose to model endogeneity bias using prior distributions of moment conditions. The estimator can be obtained both as a method-of-moments estimator and in a Ridge penalized regression framework. We show the estimator’s relation to a Bayesian estimator.     

Heterogeneous ideas production and endogenous growth: an empirical investigation

Abstract .  We examine the dynamics of ideas production and knowledge-productivity relationship in a panel of 19 OECD countries. A new data set of triadic patents is used. We rigorously address the issues of cross-country heterogeneity and endogeneity. Domestic and foreign ideas stocks exert positive but heterogeneous effects on ideas production. We find evidence of duplicate R&D but little support for endogenous growth. Countries with low domestic ideas bases could considerably improve productivity through ideas accumulation; however, this effect is modest for countries with sizeable ideas bases. An implication is that country-specific R&D policy appears potentially more effective than the one-size-fits-all approach.     

Endogeneity of WTO in the gravity model： China and ASEAN

This paper studies the endogeneity of WTO dummy variable in the gravity model about the trade in the region of China and ASEAN. We first present a two-stage test approach for the endogeneity of WTO dummy, then transform the endogeneity problem to a simultaneous system about WTO and trade, and construct an MLE estimation approach to the simultaneous model. The estimate of the coefficient of WTO dummy is positive, as opposed to the negative sign in the exogeneity case. From the estimation of the endogenous model, WTO has creation fold effect and strong trade diversion effect on export model in the region.     

The econometrics of rational partisan theory

This study develops an econometric intervention model representing the standard empirical approach to testing Alesina's (1987) Rational Partisan Theory implication that elections lead to short-term changes in output growth and unemployment., This intervention approach may be subject to two econometric difficulties., First, the cyclical nature of the autoregressive variables suggest the regression residuals may be serially correlated., Second, the election intervention variable may be endogenous to the cyclical variables., Empirical support for the model is mixed., Ordinary Least Squares estimates for both series produce a coefficient for the intervention variable which is of the predicted sign but not significant., The output growth regression results are robust to serial correlation and endogeneity concerns., For unemployment, controlling for serial correlation generates a significant coefficient, but adjusting for endogeneity does not.,     

On uniqueness of the conditional maximum likelihood estimation for a binary panel model

This paper considers an estimation method for a binary panel model with incidental parameters as individual effects. The necessary condition for the conditional maximum likelihood approach proposed by Andersen (1970) is investigated and we show that unique sufficient statistics exist only for logit models in a two-wave panel.     

A pair-wise approach to output convergence between European regions

We apply the Pesaran (2007) pair-wise approach of convergence to the per capita outputs of 195 European regions for the period 1980-2006. Pesaran's approach is based on the computation of the percentage ratio of output gaps which fulfil a given convergence criterion. A high ratio will be interpreted in favour of convergence. In a first step, we define stochastic convergence between two regions as level stationarity of their output gap. Deviations from its equilibrium value will only have a temporary effect. Results from several usual unit root or stationarity tests show us that the percentage ratio of level stationary output gaps is low, which stands against this definition of convergence. However, this convergence criterion excludes the possibility of changes in output gap equilibrium value or catching up between regions. To fit these cases, we combine the pair-wise approach with unit root or stationarity tests with structural breaks. Structural breaks are modelled by dummies (Zivot and Andrews, 1992; Kurozumi,2002) or as smooth structural breaks (Christopoulos and León-Ledesma, 2009). Overall results are not changed as convergence is not accepted more often. Finally, we consider the autocorrelation function approach of Caggiano and Leonida (2009). Autocorrelations and their confidence intervals are estimated for each output gap. Convergence between two regions is accepted if their per capita output gap autocorrelations become nonsignificantly different from zero after some lag. Results show that a high percentage of regions satisfy this convergence criterion. Contrary to the conclusions which could be made from previous results, shocks to output gaps seem to disappear as time passes.     

Alternative unit root testing strategies using the Fourier approximation

Two alternatives to  and  Fourier unit root testing strategy, which incorporates pretesting for nonlinearity, are considered. One is based on the union of rejection (UR) approach, and the other is a hybrid strategy that combines the UR approach with the use of extra information from nonlinearity pretesting. Simulation results show that the two proposed strategies, especially the hybrid, frequently outperform the original pretesting strategy.     

VOLUNTARY WORK AND WAGES

The effects of voluntary work on earnings have recently been studied for some developed countries such as Canada, France and Austria. This paper extends this line of research to Italy, using data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU‐SILC) dataset. A double methodological approach is used in order to control for unobserved heterogeneity: Heckman and IV methods are employed to account for unobserved worker heterogeneity and endogeneity bias. Empirical results show that, when the unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account, a wage premium of 2.7 percent emerges, quite small if compared to previous investigations on Canada and Austria. The investigation into the channels of influence of volunteering on wages gives support to the hypotheses that volunteering enables the access to fruitful informal networks, avoids the human capital deterioration and provides a signal for intrinsically motivated individuals.     

Identification and estimation of endogenous selection models in the presence of misclassification errors

This paper shows the semi-parametric identification and estimation of sample selection models when the primary equation contains a discrete mismeasured endogenous covariate. Assuming that appropriate instruments for the presence of endogeneity are available, I apply a control function approach to remove the possible endogeneity. Based on the conditional mean independence between the model error and the selection error, the model can be regarded as a semi-parametric regression model with a discrete mismeasured covariate, thereby permitting a non-classical measurement error. Additional identification assumptions include monotonicity restrictions on the regression function and an empirical testable rank condition. I then use the identification result to construct a sieve maximum likelihood estimation estimator to estimate the model parameters consistently and recover the selection rule and joint probabilities of the accurately measured endogenous variable and the mismeasured observed variable. The proposed estimation method allows for a rather flexible functional form of the mismeasured endogenous covariate, requires only one valid instrument to control for both endogeneity and measurement errors for the variable of interest, and imposes no distribution assumptions on the selection rule.     

Skilled Immigration and Wages in Australia*

This paper investigates the impact of the relative growth of skilled migration on the structure of Australian wages. Unlike conventional approaches, the present study uses macro data to examine the response of wages to immigration flows. We use instrumental variable techniques to control for the potential endogeneity of immigration. The results, using alternative estimation strategies, are consistent with the dominant findings from existing empirical work. There is no robust evidence that a relative increase in skilled immigrants exerts any discernible adverse consequences on the wage structure in Australia.