Carbon Abatement and International Spillovers

Carbon abatement policies in large open economies affect both the allocation of domestic resources and international market prices. A change in international prices implies an indirect secondary burden or benefit for all trading countries. Based on simulations with a large-scale computable general equilibrium model of global trade and energy use, we show that international spillovers have important welfare implications for carbon abatement policies designed to meet exogenous emission reduction targets. We present a decomposition of the total welfare effect of carbon abatement policies into a primary domestic market effect (at constant international prices) and a secondary international spillover impact as a result of changes in international prices. This decomposition reveals the extent to which domestic abatement costs are increased or decreased as a result of the impact of carbon abatement on international prices.     

地理距离与经济距离对创业知识溢出影响的实证分析

创业活动的产生源于对新知识的投资,创业活动通过“知识过滤”为知识溢出提供传播媒介,从而形成创业知识溢出。以我国内地30个省际区域2002-2009年数据为样本,运用空间动态面板数据模型实证分析我国企业家创业活动的影响因素,并从地理因素与经济因素两个方面探究创业知识溢出。研究结果表明,研发投入、专利申请量以及人均GDP对创业活动影响显著,创业活动存在显著的溢出效应,经济距离对创业知识溢出的影响比地理距离的影响更显著。     

Does productivity in Africa benefit from advanced countries’ R&D?

This study employs dynamic ordinary least squares and panel co-integration to estimate advanced countries’ R&D spillover effects on labour productivity in 28 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1992–2011. Results show that African countries that import and receive (technical and non-technical) development aid from advanced countries experience an increase in labour productivity, suggesting that trade and aid are transmitters of foreign R&D. However, the extent to which labour productivity responds to R&D spillovers varies based on the country of origin, where spillovers from the USA have a greater impact compared to those from other advanced countries.     

Green Technology and Optimal Emissions Taxation

Unless an active environmental policy exists, firms have no incentive to engage in abatement or environmental R&D so policy design is of paramount importance. This design heavily depends on the way R&D spillovers operate. There are two distinct types of R&D spillover: output spillover and input spillover. An input spillover operates on the expenditure toward pollution reduction, whereas an output spillover manifests as the achieved abatement. Under optimal emissions taxation, significant differences arise due to this distinction, in particular, when the spillover operates on R&D inputs. In an oligopolistic setting, the result is higher R&D expenditure, but also higher aggregate emissions and, consequently, higher emissions taxes. By contrast, when spillovers occur in R&D output, there is a U‐shaped relationship between the optimal tax and the spillover, showing a trade‐off between the optimal tax rate and spillovers when these are low. In terms of the relative effectiveness of different R&D organization setups, combining emissions taxes with R&D cooperation, this paper shows that under low levels of R&D spillover R&D cooperation gives higher emissions reductions, whereas when spillovers are high this is not the case.     

外商直接投资、技术溢出与相对工资差距

本文从技术溢出的角度考察了外商直接投资对相对工资差距的影响。FDI主要通过两种技术溢出渠道作用于相对工资差距：其一为FDI引致的进口贸易而产生的技术溢出,其二为外资企业在当地从事生产、经营活动而产生的技术溢出。基于我国省际面板数据的实证研究分析表明：FDI的两种技术溢出渠道均扩大了我国的相对工资差距,但存在区域差异。     

外资在华技术创新溢出是否促进内资企业技术进步——基于门槛效应的经验分析

利用2010—2019年中国A股上市公司数据,构建面板门槛模型,探讨外资在华技术创新溢出对内资企业技术进步的门槛效应。结果表明,外资在华技术创新溢出自身存在单门槛效应,对内资企业技术进步的影响呈倒U型关系;以行业外资竞争、内资模仿同构和区域知识产权保护为门槛变量发现,仅当外资竞争水平较低、内资模仿同构程度较低以及区域知识产权保护力度较大时,外资在华技术创新溢出才能促进内资企业技术进步,且其阈值效应存在行业和企业产权异质性。     

中国OFDI逆向技术溢出效应 的影响因素研究* ——基于国别面板数据的非线性门槛技术回归

本文首先对对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应的机理进行了分析,然后以2003-2013年中国对外直接投资的13个主要发达国家的数据为样本,考察了中国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应的影响因素。本文的实证结果发现,中国与东道国之间的技术差距、东道国研发（R&D）支出、全要素生产率、人力资本、技术创新能力、制度环境是对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应的正相关因素。同时,本文以技术差距作为门槛变量进行门槛效应检验,结果表明,技术差距存在单一门槛值,当中国与东道国之间技术差距较大时,技术差距对逆向技术溢出产生了正向影响;当技术差距缩小后,正相关关系仍然存在,但影响程度有所下降。     

U.S. foreign direct investment in Latin America and the Caribbean: a case of remittances and market size

This article investigates the effect of remittances on U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It covers 26 countries for the period 1983–2010. The results show a positive and significant impact of remittances on U.S. FDI flows. However, this effect depends upon the level of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of the host country. On average, the results show that increasing remittances by one standard deviation increases U.S. FDI flows by 0.44 percent a year. Also, host country demand positively affects U.S. FDI flows, which supports the market size hypothesis.     

Country impacts of multilateral oil sanctions

In recent years, economic sanctions have become an important tool in the conduct of U.S. foreign policy. Though usually aimed at a single country, they also can affect the economies of other nations. Knowledge of such impacts would inform U.S. policy-makers as to which other countries might be helped or harmed, and help predict which other nations likely would support or oppose the sanctions. This article presents results relating to the imposition of sanctions in the oil market. These results are obtained from exercising a dynamic computable general equilibrium model built by Charles River Associates under sponsorship of the American Petroleum Institute. The model is used to analyze GDP effects on a number of countries from multilateral oil sanctions against Iraq. The results suggest that it is possible to provide useful information regarding the impacts of sanctions as a foreign policy tool. However, they also indicate that sanctions can be expensive, with substantial spillover effects. Though sanctions may be an appropriate policy choice in given instances, these effects should be incorporated into foreign policy analyses.     

The energy consumption-real GDP nexus revisited: Empirical evidence from 93 countries

In this paper, we analyse the long-run relationship between energy consumption and real GDP for 93 countries. We find mixed results on the impact of energy consumption on real GDP, with greater evidence at the country level supporting energy consumption having a negative causal effect on real GDP. For the G6 panel of countries, we find significant evidence that energy consumption negatively Granger causes real GDP. This means that for countries where energy consumption has a negative long-run causal effect on real GDP, energy conversation policies should not retard economic growth. We identify these countries and regional panels. We argue that these countries/regions should play a greater role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions.     

Veblen and Kropotkin on Human Evolution

This paper studies the spillover effects of economic fluctuations in the United States on economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean. Fluctuations in U.S. GDP growth have spillover effects that stimulate real growth and accelerate price inflation across many countries. Underlying these spillover effects are significant movements in private consumption, and to a larger extent, private investment. Openness to the United States has significant effects that accelerate growth of exports and/or imports across many countries. The net effects on the trade and current account balances vary across countries. Overall, the evidence supports concerns about adverse spillover effects of a slowdown in the U.S. economy on neighboring countries, necessitating careful mobilization of countercyclical domestic tools to hedge against potential risk and mitigate the severity of economic downturns.     

Spillovers from Foreign Exporters

We develop a general equilibrium model of international trade with heterogeneous firms that accounts for productivity spillovers transmitted by foreign exporters. Everything else equal, stronger spillovers increase welfare. We embed the model framework into a trade policy scenario where countries strategically set inter‐country variable trade costs for the trading partner. In the strategic Nash‐equilibrium policy, governments trade‐off welfare gains from protectionism and those that are due to spillovers from foreign exporters. The equilibrium degree of protectionism is decreasing in the strength of the spillover. Policy coordination induces welfare gains but these gains can be hump‐shaped in the spillover strength.     

Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment in Spanish Manufacturing Firms

This paper examines the effect of participation by foreign capital and the spillovers from a foreign presence on the technical progress of Spanish manufacturing firms. The results show that foreign direct investment (FDI) creates positive spillover effects for local firms, and when the presence of foreign capital and the absorptive capacity of spillovers from FDI are large, more technical progress ensues. Also, local companies in capital‐ and research and development (R&D)‐intensive industries experience larger positive FDI spillovers. For these reasons, government policies should aim to attract FDI, especially in the aforementioned industries.     

Vulnerability to spillovers

This paper quantifies the impact of common investors in creating vulnerability through international spillovers in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. A spillover is the impact on a country resulting from changes occurring abroad; domestic economy fundamentals are assumed to remain constant. The impact arises from a purely external shock because of changes in linked countries. A vulnerability index proposed by Kelejian and Mukerji (Pap Reg Sci 90(4):693–702, 2011) is used to measure the spillover. This paper proposes a novel method to split the vulnerability into two parts: one arising from international linkages and another from prevailing domestic conditions determining sensitivity to spillovers. Findings suggest a rising vulnerability index over successive decades, chiefly driven by international linkages.     

Climate Policy under Technology Spillovers

We study climate policy when there are technology spillovers between countries, as there is no instrument that (directly) corrects for these externalities. Without an international climate agreement, the (non-cooperative) equilibrium depends on whether countries use tradable quotas or carbon taxes as their environmental policy instruments. All countries are better-off in the tax case than in the quota case. Two types of international climate agreements are then studied: One is a Kyoto type of agreement where each country is assigned a specific number of internationally tradable quotas. In the second type of agreement, a common carbon tax is used domestically in all countries. None of the cases satisfy the conditions for the social optimum. Even if the quota price is equal to the Pigovian level, R&D investments will be lower than what is socially optimal in the quota case. It is also argued that the quota agreement gives higher R&D expenditures and more abatement than the tax agreement.     

International Spillovers of Output Growth and Output Growth Volatility: Evidence from the G7

This paper examines the transmission of GDP growth and GDP growth volatility among the G7 countries over the period 1960Q1 – 2010Q4, using a multivariate GARCH model and volatility impulse response functions (VIRFs) to identify the source, magnitude and the duration of volatility spillovers. Results indicate the presence of positive own-country GDP growth spillovers in each country and cross-country GDP growth spillovers among most of the G7 countries. In addition, the large number of significant own-country output growth volatility spillovers and cross-country output growth volatility spillovers indicates that output growth shocks in most of the G7 countries affect output growth volatility in the other remaining countries. An additional finding is that the duration of output growth volatility spillovers has increased over time from some seven quarters in the 1970s to some ten quarters during the recent crisis, which is likely to be due to the increased integration of goods and financial markets.     

Home sweet host: A cross‐country perspective on prudential and monetary policy spillovers through global banks

Prudential regulation of banks is multi‐layered: policy changes by home‐country authorities affect banks’ global operations across many jurisdictions; policy changes by host‐country authorities shape banks’ operations in the host jurisdiction regardless of the nationality of the parent bank. Do these policies create (unintended) cross‐border spillovers? Similarly, monetary policy actions by major central banks may also have effects on the behaviour of banks in other countries. This paper examines the effect that changes in home‐ and host‐country prudential measures have on cross‐border dollar credit provision, and how these interact with US monetary policy. We first run panel regressions with both layers of regulation, to examine which has a greater effect on cross‐border lending. We then use a novel approach to decompose growth in cross‐border bank lending into separate home, host and common components, and then match each with the corresponding home or host policies. Our results suggest that prudential policies can have spillover effects, which depend on the instrument used and on whether a bank's home or host country implemented them. Home policies tend to have larger spillovers on cross‐border US dollar lending than host policies. We also find that a tightening of US monetary policy can compound the spillovers of some prudential measures.     

Do technology externalities justify restrictions on emission permit trading?

International emission trading is an important flexibility mechanism, but its use has been often restricted on the ground that access to international carbon credits can undermine the domestic abatement effort reducing the incentive to innovate and, eventually, lowering the pace of climate policy-induced technological change. This paper examines the economics that is behind these concerns by studying how a cap to the trade of carbon offsets influences innovation, technological change, and welfare. By using a standard game of abatement and R&D, we investigate the main mechanisms that shape these relationships. We also use a numerical integrated assessment model that features environmental and technology externalities to quantify how limits to the volume, the timing, and the regional allocation of carbon offsets affect climate policy costs and the incentive to invest in innovation and low-carbon technologies.Results indicate that, for moderate caps on the amount tradable emissions permits and sufficiently high technology spillovers, global innovation and technical change would increase and that this additional innovative effort could lead to economic efficiency gains. The numerical analysis confirms that when constraints are close to 15% of domestic abatement, efficiency losses are small because they are partly compensated by more technological spillovers and lower energy prices. Under a broad range of parameters, restrictions are costly for the constrained countries, but always beneficial for unconstrained ones.     

Remittances to Latin America from migrants in the United States: Assessing the impact of amnesty programs

The magnitude of remittance flows to Latin America exceeds the combined inflows of foreign direct investment and official development assistance to the region. Since the United States is the destination country of the vast majority of migrants from Mexico, as well as from other Latin American countries, U.S. immigration policy can have a significant impact on the volume of remittances to the Latin American region. This paper studies how a generalized amnesty — a provision in the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) — affected immigrants' remitting patterns. In models that control for immigrants' length of residence in the United States and for economic conditions in both the U.S. state of residence and the country of origin, we estimate substantial post-legalization drops in remittances sent home by Mexican-born migrants who legalized through IRCA. Given the potential positive impact of remittances on investment levels, entrepreneurship rates and the development of the financial sector, this finding underscores the importance of gaining a better understanding of the impact that immigration policies in immigrant-receiving countries may have on the stream of remittance flows to immigrant-sending communities in developing regions.     

Trade-related spillovers and industrial competitiveness: Exploring the linkages for OECD countries

This study examines how trade-related spillovers impact the OECD countries' industrial competitiveness; with an emphasis on China's innovative efforts and reintegration into the global economy. In comparison with the major R&D countries, benefits attributable to spillovers are found to be more sizable for the rest of the OECD countries.This result is consistent with the observed convergence of competitiveness between the two groups of countries during 1990–2009.Moreover, our empirical results suggest China's trade-related spillovers can produce both positive and negative effects on OECD countries' industrial competitiveness. The persistence of the spillover effects is found even after controlling for trade openness creating possible spurious association. Finally, our finding TFP growth as the competitiveness driver stresses the consequential role of STI (science, technology, and innovation) policies in supporting sustainable and balanced growth.