中国分县城乡人口老龄化时空差异与机理

以人口普查数据为支撑,刻画中国城乡人口老龄化时序演变特征,利用探索性空间数据分析技术研究县域城乡老年人口空间差异与关联性,并结合空间回归模型对差异背后的机制进行解析。主要结论为:①城乡老年人口绝对量总体呈增长态势,不考虑政策因素带来统计口径差异的影响,乡村老年人口始终高于城市,但增速较缓。②然而,乡村较城市率先进入老龄化社会且速度快于城市,老龄化"城乡倒置"呈现"缩小—再扩大"的阶段性特征。③城市老龄化以东北三省、苏北及川渝为甚,乡村老龄化呈"三足鼎立"之势,以乡城人口流迁主导的城乡差异格局开始凸显,具体围绕长江三角洲、川渝、呼包鄂榆城市群郊县分布。城乡老龄化空间集聚特征显著,乡村集聚性大于城市,区域不均衡较城市更明显。④新时期,人口迁移构成城乡人口老龄化区域差异的关键因素,社会文化因素、人口因素对城乡人口老龄化影响各异,经济因素影响不显著。文章旨在为新型城镇化和乡村振兴战略背景下的城乡人口统筹发展指明方向,为城乡后社会主义老龄化理论探索提供依据。     

POPULATION AGEING,CAPITAL INTENSITY AND LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY

This paper analyses the implications of population ageing for the capital intensity of output and, therefore, labour productivity. Population ageing leads to sectoral shifts in demand for goods and services. If such shifts occur between goods that differ in their capital intensity, there will be a change in the average capital intensity of the economy and, therefore, in average labour productivity. In order to gauge the magnitudes of such effects, the present paper reports simulations of a calibrated model with two final goods and two intermediate goods, using data for two Pacific Rim countries for comparison: the United States and Australia. The data for these countries suggest that population ageing will, on average, shift expenditure towards goods with a relatively high capital intensity. The magnitude of the increase in labour productivity according to the simulations is likely to be small, but perhaps not trivial: in the order of 1–4% per annum by 2050. This might partially offset the negative effect of ageing on living standards.     

A young EU member’s ageing: budgetary and macroeconomic consequences of Slovenia’s demographic prospects

In this paper, we simulate a macroeconometric model of Slovenia over the period 2012–2060, using the projected demographic development as input, and determine time paths for budgetary and macroeconomic variables under alternative assumptions about Slovenian policy instruments so as to limit budgetary pressures stemming from population ageing. The main macroeconomic indicators (growth, employment, price stability, sustainable public finances) are shown to depend on the assumed long-run policy options followed. It is demonstrated that the ageing of the Slovenian population projected in the demographic forecast leads to severe budgetary problems unless increases of the retirement age, rising social security contributions or reductions of state financed pensions are implemented. A reduction of the pension replacement rate turns out to be the most effective measure to cope with the budgetary implications of population ageing. However, none of the analysed policy measures is sufficient to stabilise the debt ratio.     

PRIVATE INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERS AND THEIR ABILITY TO OFFSET THE FISCAL BURDEN OF AGEING

The ratio of retirees to workers in developed countries is expected to increase sharply in the next few decades. In the presence of unfunded income support policies, this increase in old age dependency is expected to increase the future fiscal burden of ageing, which is seen as a threat to living standards. Private intergenerational transfers in the form of bequests are also expected to increase in ageing societies, which may offset the adverse effects of the fiscal burden of population ageing on future living standards. This paper quantifies the ability of these private intergenerational transfers to offset the future fiscal burden of ageing in Australia. This is done through developing a dynamic overlapping generations simulation model with realistic demographics. Calculations based on steady-state simulations (with a pay-as-you-go tax rate equal to 3.3% of GDP) suggest that a bequest to GDP ratio of 1% offsets approximately one-third of the fiscal burden over the lifecycle when measured as a proportion of simple labour income and one-eleventh of the fiscal burden when measured as a proportion of full income (labour income plus leisure). The model is calibrated for Australia under a small open economy assumption such that the optimal solution mimics important cross-sectional and time-series fundamentals of the Australian economy. For the non-steady-state, intergenerational accounting suggests that the empirically plausible intergenerational transfers are strong enough to offset most of the tax burden (80–90%) when measured as a percentage of simple labour income and up to one-quarter of the burden when fiscal burden is measured as a percentage of full income.     

微创新视角下企业成长组织惯例演化:李渡酒业案例剖析

以组织惯例演化为主线,以江西李渡酒业有限公司为样本,采用SPS案例研究法,从微创新角度探讨组织惯例内涵及其演化过程模型。基于文献回顾和案例分析,探索微创新对组织惯例演化的作用机理。研究发现:首先,在惯例演化搜索、变异及选择阶段,组织惯例分别以模仿式微创新、自主式微创新及延续式微创新3种方式演化;其次,在不同惯例演化阶段,微创新对组织惯例作用机理不尽相同;最后,在组织惯例演化过程中,惯例表现形式存在差异。     

SOCIAL SECURITY AND THE INTRAGENERATIONAL REDISTRIBUTION OF LIFETIME INCOME IN JAPAN*

We investigate how social security redistributes lifetime income within the same generation in Japan, based on data from the micro data. The progressivity of Japan's state pension programme appears to be much more limited on a lifetime basis than on an annual basis. Given an ageing population, replacing the current Pay As You Go system with a simple one that consists of a flat benefit and a wage‐proportional premium, and has no maximum contribution, can be desirable in terms of both efficiency and intragenerational equity. The redistributive effects of income tax and consumption tax to finance the benefit are also examined.     

COSTLY AGEING OR COSTLY DEATHS? UNDERSTANDING HEALTH CARE EXPENDITURE USING AUSTRALIAN MEDICARE PAYMENTS DATA*

In health economics and health care planning, the observation that age cohorts are generally positively correlated with per capita health expenditures is often cited as evidence that population ageing is the main driver of health care costs. Several recent studies, however, challenge this view. Zweifel et al. (1999 ) and Felder et al. (2000 ), for example, find that individuals incur the highest health care costs around the time before their death. Thus, they argue, it is proximity to death rather than ageing that is driving health care costs. This paper examines the issue by estimating a two‐equation exact aggregation demand model using Australian Medicare payments data over an eight‐year period (1994–2001). The results suggest that once proximity to death is accounted for, population ageing has either a negligible or even negative effect on health care demand.     

基于GIS和空间Logistic模型的城市扩展预测——以深圳市龙岗区为例

从土地利用转化的角度出发,分析了城市扩展的基本原理和过程,提出城市空间扩展直接原因在于城市发展对土地的需求,城市空间扩展预测可分为城市发展用地总体需求预测和空间扩展预测的观点,并采用优化组合预测模型对城市用地总体规模扩展进行建模,利用空间逻辑回归模型对空间分布扩展进行建模,两者共同构建了城市空间扩展预测模型,最后以深圳市龙岗区为例进行试验,验证了这种思路。     

大数据背景下传统制造企业微创新演化：“江西李渡”和“贵州茅台”双案例研究

以江西李渡酒业有限公司和贵州茅台酒股份有限公司为样本，采用SPS案例研究法，结合传统制造企业有关特征，探讨微创新内涵及其演化过程模型。基于文献回顾和案例分析，探索大数据时代企业微创新演化过程。研究发现：①企业微创新过程是动态演化的，行业后发企业和先发企业都遵循初始、提升和稳定3个基本阶段。在不同演化阶段，数据管理平台实现了在不同企业类型之间的跨越，行业后发企业微创新演化路径通常呈现外驱式特征，而行业先发企业微创新演化路径通常呈现出内推式特征；②在微创新过程中，企业相关利益者之间的关系强度是决定企业微创新演化的关键要素，并且，后发企业和先发企业在演化各阶段的关键影响要素变化方向不一。同时，后发企业、先发企业及其利益相关者的关系强度均与创新组合是否形成存在关联。     

人口老龄化与养老金模式关系辨析

从养老金制度资金平衡的角度分析了人口老龄化与传统现收现付制、基金积累制以及名义账户制之间的关系。无论何种养老金模式均会受人口老龄化的影响,应对人口老龄化的能力不取决于养老金模式采用何种筹资模式,而是取决于采用何种给付方式。基金积累制和名义账户制相对于传统现收现付制的优势只是在于采用量入为出的待遇给付原则,可以避免承诺过于慷慨,进而避免因不必要的过度负担而造成的支付危机。此外,在不同养老金模式下,应对人口老龄化可行对策也存在差异。     

Population Ageing and House Prices in Australia

This article assesses the effect of population ageing on housing consumption and house prices. Using two approaches, this article finds that the ageing of the population may cause average real house prices to be between 3 and 27 per cent lower than they otherwise would be over the period 2008–2050. The first approach is an econometric estimation of house prices for Australia over the period 1980–2008. The second approach is a simulation of a life cycle‐optimising model with representative overlapping generations.     

城市积极老龄化的探索——美国夏威夷 火奴鲁鲁社区花园对上海社区养老的启示

老龄化问题已经成为当前全球共同面临的挑战。分析 和归纳了美国夏威夷火奴鲁鲁城市社区花园应对老龄化的实践 经验，提出了社区花园对中国的适用性。针对上海已经出现社 区花园的背景，研究了适合上海养老模式的“积极老龄化”创 新路径，提出上海可以在社区更新改造过程中整合生产性景观 和园艺疗法，先期营造中等规模、开放式布局和场地活力高的 社区花园。同时指出未来需要多学科的融合才能使社区养老做 得更好。     

DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT,POPULATION AGEING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS

Abstract. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a given ageing profile of the population to forecast the growth path of China's economy during the twenty‐first century, this study finds that: population ageing leads to declining economic growth as labour supply shrinks and the rate of physical capital formation declines; households’ material living standards improve, albeit at a declining rate; falling domestic investment partially offsets declining national savings; and the resulting saving‐investment surplus generates a current account surplus and capital outflows. Finally, the main force that can sustain China's economic growth against the backdrop of population ageing is productivity improvement.     

Population ageing,time allocation and human capital: A general equilibrium analysis for Canada

This study explores the long-term impact of population ageing on labour supply and human capital investment in Canada, as well as the induced effects on productive capacity. The analysis is conducted with a dynamic computable overlapping generations model where in the spirit of Becker [Becker, Gary (1965), A theory of the allocation of time, The Economic Journal, Vol. 75, pp. 493–517.] and Heckman [Heckman, James (1976), A life-cycle model of earnings, learning and consumption, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 84, pp. 511–544], leisure has a quality-time feature and labour supply and human capital investment decisions are endogenous. The role of human capital in the growth process is based on the framework used by Mankiw et al. [Mankiw, N. Gregory, Romer, David and Weil, David N. (1992), A contribution to the empirics of economic growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107, no. 2, pp. 407–437]. The paper indicates that population ageing creates more opportunities for young individuals to invest in human capital and supply more skilled labour at middle age. Consequently, the reduction in labour supply of young adults initially lowers productive capacity and exacerbates the economic costs of population ageing. However, current and future middle-age cohorts are more skilled and work more, which eventually raises productive capacity and significantly lowers the cost of population ageing. Finally, these results suggest that the recent increase in the participation rate of older workers might be the beginning of a new trend that will amplify over the next decades.     

Ageing,government budgets,retirement, and growth

We analyze the short and long-run effects of demographic ageing – increased longevity and reduced fertility – on per-capita growth. The OLG model captures direct effects, working through adjustments in the savings rate, labor supply, and capital deepening, and indirect effects, working through changes of taxes, government spending components and the retirement age in politico-economic equilibrium. Growth is driven by capital accumulation and productivity increases fueled by public investment. The closed-form solutions of the model predict taxation and the retirement age in OECD economies to increase in response to demographic ageing and per-capita growth to accelerate. If the retirement age was held constant, the growth rate in politico-economic equilibrium would essentially remain unchanged, due to a surge of social-security transfers and crowding out of public investment.     

Effect of World Fertility Scenarios on International Living Standards

This paper applies a two good, multi-region Ramsey-Solow model of the world economy to determine the impact that alternative world fertility rates would have on international capital markets and living standards. Notable features of the model include: relative consumption demands and relative employment efficiencies that vary by age, traded and non-traded goods, vintage technology, outward-looking reference consumption, a proportion of non-optimising rule-of-thumb consumers and imperfect capital mobility due to asymmetric information. The model suggests that projected demographic change will imply a flow of international capital from the ageing regions to the younger regions; and that the world interest rate will fall. The lower world interest rate will cause a loss in living standards for ageing regions, the lenders, and a gain for the younger regions, who are borrowers.     

When old meets young? Germany's population ageing and the current account

In a three-region New Keynesian life-cycle model calibrated to Germany, the Euro area (without Germany) and the rest of the world, we analyze the impact of population ageing on net foreign asset and current account developments. Using unsynchronized demographic trends by taking those of Germany as given and assuming constant population everywhere else, we are able to generate German current account surpluses of up to 15% of GDP during the first half of this century. However, projected demographic trends from 2000 to 2080 in OECD countries (and China in an additional analysis) are much more synchronized. Feeding these into our model suggests that the average annual German current account surplus from 2000 to 2018 that should be attributed to ageing reduces to around 2.83% (1.23%) of GDP, with a maximum at 4.3% (2.7%) in 2006 (when taking into account China), turning negative around 2035.     

浙江镇域集群缘何普遍拥有发达的小微企业创业行为

镇域集群情景下,小微企业的创业行为研究日益受到学者们关注。运用扎根理论,基于浙江10个镇域集群的案例调研,研究了浙江镇域集群缘何普遍拥有发达的小微企业创业行为这一现实问题。提炼得到了镇域集群情景下小微企业创业行为的影响因素模型,其中个体创业认知、企业适应行为、镇域创业情景和善治有为政府为4类关键影响因素。研究创新点在于,将政府行为视为转轨经济体中区域创业聚集的内生变量;同时,整合了个体、企业、区域和政府4个层面进行分析。     

The economics of ageing and the political economy of old age

Economic discussion of ageing has been largely neoclassical in approach. Ageing has become a specialism within population economics, which is itself a specialism within the neoclassical mainstream. An alternative view has come from authors in sociology and social policy, who have produced their own ‘political economy of old age’. In contrast with neoclassical individualism, sociological depictions of ageing have stressed the social construction of old age and the structured dependency of the elderly. Non-neoclassical economists have had little to say about ageing, despite some relevant work in the early days of Keynesianism. This paper argues that a combination of structural ideas from sociology and disequilibrium ideas from Keynesian and non-neoclassical economics can provide a suitable framework for the economics of ageing.