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1.
Kien C. Tran 《Empirical Economics》1999,24(1):61-76
The dynamic CUSUM test for structural change proposed by Kr?mer, Ploberger and Alt (1988) is investigated when the errors are serially correlated in a linear dynamic model. We show that the dynamic CUSUM test can be modified to allow for serial correlation in the disturbance using the same procedure as in Kao and Ross (1995), and that the modified dynamic CUSUM test retains its asymptotic significance levels. Monte Carlo results suggest that the empirical size of the dynamic CUSUM test is highly distorted while the empirical size of the modified dynamic CUSUM test is fairly robust to the change on the degree of autocorrelation. We also find that the power of the modified test essentially depends on the angle between the mean regressors and the structural shift. First version received: April 1997/Final version received: January 1998 相似文献
2.
The paper estimates inflation persistence in Greece from 1975 to 2003, a period of high variation in inflation and changes
in policy regimes. Two empirical methodologies, univariate autoregressive (AR) modelling and second-generation random coefficient
(RC) modelling, are employed to estimate inflation persistence. The empirical results from all the procedures suggest that
inflation persistence was high till 1996, while it started to decline after 1997, when inflationary expectations seem to have
been stabilised, and thus, monetary policy was effective at reducing inflation. Empirical findings also detect a sluggish
response of inflation to changes in monetary policy. This observed delay seems to have changed little over time.
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Sophia LazaretouEmail: |
3.
A rationale for providing support to the farm sector in the course of economic development and structural change is a growing gap between the incomes of non‐agricultural workers and the incomes of farmers. Drawing on a model that enables us to analyze the level of social stress experienced by farmers as employment shifts from the farm sector to other sectors, we find that even without an increasing gap between the incomes of non‐agricultural workers and the incomes of farmers, support to farmers might be needed/can be justified. This result arises because under well‐specified conditions, when the size of the farm population decreases, those who remain in farming experience increasing aggregate social stress. The increase is nonlinear: it is modest when the outflow from the farm sector is relatively small or when it is large, and it becomes more significant when the outflow is moderate. This finding can inform policymakers who seek to alleviate the social stress of the farming population as to the timing and intensity of that intervention. 相似文献
4.
Economic growth,structural change,and search unemployment 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Martin Zagler 《Journal of Economics》2009,96(1):63-78
Economic growth is driven by structural change. Structural change does not come without a cost. The most evident social cost
of structural change is high and persistent unemployment. This paper develops a model with an endogenously expanding service
sector, where the constant flow of workers in and out of employment leads to structural unemployment. The main finding is
that the level of unemployment is different between the initial period and the long-run equilibrium growth path, and that
along the transition path, the level of unemployment will overshoot its equilibrium level, which can explain the long-run
pattern of unemployment in most industrialized countries.
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6.
In this paper we explore how innovation and structural change affected economic development in the long run, by which we mean a period such as the one between the industrial revolution and the present. We separate the period since the industrial revolution into two sub periods, which we call ‘necessities’ and ‘imaginary worlds’ and focus on three trajectories, increasing productive efficiency, increasing output variety, and increasing output quality and differentiation. In the paper we show how a combination of the three trajectories gave rise to the transition between ‘necessities’ and ‘imaginary worlds’ and propose a mechanism of economic development which could have given rise to the type of economic system which we can observe today. To create growing output quality and differentiation higher competencies were required. These higher competencies required higher levels of education and demanded higher wages, which contributed to raise consumers' purchasing power. These phenomena, combined with the income effect of the creation of new sectors, generated the disposable income with which consumers could purchase the new, higher quality, non necessities, goods and services generated by innovation. In the paper we study the impact of several model parameters on the stability of the virtuous circle previously described. 相似文献
7.
The Newly Liberalizing Countries (NLCs) in Eastern Europe have to undergo a fundamental structural change. In this paper the Chenery Hypothesis (CH) is employed to make a quantitative assessment of this change. The CH, roughly speaking, relates an economy's sectoral structure to its stage of development, its size, and its endowment with natural resources. The paper tests this hypothesis for a sample of 31 developed and developing economies and finds it still valid. Then it uses the results obtained to measure distortions in the NLCs' existing economic structure and to give a projection of future structural change. The calculations make it evident that the industrial sector in the NLCs will experience a marked downsizing whilst the service sector turns out to be too small. But sectoral patterns are not too uniform for all groups of countries. Thus, all projections depend highly on the reference group used to evaluate a ‘master pattern’. 相似文献
8.
Empiricists have used various editions of an economic freedom index (EFI) initially developed by Gwartney et al. (1996) [Gwartney, J., Lawson, R., Block, W., 1996. Economic Freedom of the World: 1975–1995. Fraser Institute, Vancouver.] to examine the relationship between economic freedom and other socio-economic variables, such as growth or investment. The EFI quantifies the level of particular institutional characteristics thought to promote economic freedom and aggregates them into a single index value. The aggregation procedures utilized by Gwartney and Lawson in developing their index have changed over time and other scholars have promoted alternative methods. We examine several index aggregation procedures and show that each design may have potential methodological flaws that can greatly affect the empirical findings. 相似文献
9.
Exact aggregation of a system of individual expenditure functions with a single, individually variable price is analyzed. It is shown, under summability and homogeneity, that the individual and aggregate expenditure functions must take one of two specific functional forms. 相似文献
10.
Human capital aggregation and relative wages across countries 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Most of the growth accounting literature relies on an aggregate production function to determine the contribution of factors of production relative to that of total factor productivity (TFP) in explaining differences in incomes across countries. I show that the importance of TFP in accounting for cross-country income differences depends crucially on how skilled and unskilled labor are aggregated. Further, cross-country evidence on the relationship between relative wages and relative endowments of skilled and unskilled labor suggests that the two types of labor should not be aggregated into a single factor of production. Growth accounting decomposition using a commonly used nested-CES aggregate production function that allows skilled and unskilled labor to be used as separate factors of production results in a significantly greater role for TFP in accounting for income differences across countries than that found by past studies. The finding that different aggregate production functions lead to significantly different conclusions about the role of TFP in accounting for cross-country income differences calls for a more general approach to understanding such differences. 相似文献
11.
Entrepreneurship, structural change, and economic growth 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Florian Noseleit 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2013,23(4):735-766
The ability to adjust to structural change is vital to economic development, and entries can be active participants in this process. While the importance of factor reallocations for growth is widely discussed, the role of entrepreneurs in managing these reallocations is currently not well understood. This paper analyzes the role of entry activity for adjustments of the sectoral structure and its relevance for regional economic development. The historical framework is the accelerated economic transformation that occurred in industrialized countries during the mid 1970s, resulting in an increasing need to adjust. Based on German data from 1975 to 2002, evidence is presented that sectoral reallocations are an important means for transforming entrepreneurial activity into growth. 相似文献
12.
Raymond Robertson Anil Kumar Donald H. Dutkowsky 《Journal of development economics》2009,90(2):237-243
This paper investigates long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) between the US and Mexico. We use a panel of disaggregated price data between the US and Mexico with a long time series to look at two types of aggregation bias. The first is examined in Imbs et al. — which we refer to as estimator aggregation bias — and the second is put forth by Broda and Weinstein — hereafter, data aggregation bias. The findings indicate substantial estimator aggregation bias and data aggregation bias. Although estimates using aggregate data and imposing homogeneous coefficients provide little evidence of PPP, findings with disaggregated data and heterogeneous coefficient estimators offer strong support. The results also suggest the presence of small-sample bias as examined in Chen and Engel, but with little effect on the qualitative results. Tradable goods and non-tradable goods show little distinction in convergence rates. Estimated half-lives are lower under flexible than fixed exchange rates and indicate rapid convergence during the Mexican peso crisis. 相似文献
13.
The paper examines specific features of structural change inthe UK since 1997, contrasting the decline in industrial jobswith the rise in a variety of service jobs. It examines theproximate causes of structural change, in particular whetherthe chronically slow growth of manufacturing output in the 1980shas persisted. The implications of this structural change areconsidered, particularly the effects on the balance of paymentsand regional employment patterns. The paper suggests that themain impact of government policies on regional employment mayhave been through the direct and multiplier effects of publicexpenditure. 相似文献
14.
Entrepreneurs are instrumental for structural transformation. They create and organize new firms and hire workers with a minimum level of human capital. Entrepreneurs encourage workers to invest in their own education in order to move into the modern production sector. Better institutions lead to less income diversion, which creates a greater supply of entrepreneurs, a larger demand for human capital, and faster structural transformation. Education policy alone is not as effective, although it, too, raises the number of entrepreneurs. Simulations and evidence from Brazilian states support the theory. 相似文献
15.
Jörg Breitung 《Empirical Economics》2001,26(2):447-459
Latent variables are used to rewrite a wide class of structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. The framework is general enough to include as particular cases all just and over-identified models recently used in applied macroeconomics. The latent variables representation can conveniently be estimated with standard software packages like LISREL, EQS, LINCS and AMOS, for example. The approach is illustrated by using the models of Blanchard and Quah (1989) and Swanson and Granger (1997). First version received: October 1999/Final version accepted: August 2000 相似文献
16.
Jean-Marie Dufour 《Economics Letters》1980,6(3):241-247
We propose a dummy variable interpretation and an alternative proof of the predictive Chow test; we further show that it provides useful additional information on structural changes. We apply this approach to the St. Louis equation. 相似文献
17.
Population,food, and knowledge: a simple unified growth theory 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:3
This paper provides a unified growth theory, i.e. a model that explains the very long-run economic and demographic development
path of industrialized economies, stretching from the pre-industrial era to the present-day and beyond. Making strict use
of Malthus’ (An essay on the principle of population. London, printed for J. Johnson, 1798) so-called preventive check hypothesis—that fertility rates vary inversely with the
price of food—the current study offers a new and straightforward explanation for the demographic transition and the break
with the Malthusian era. Employing a two-sector framework with agriculture and industry, we demonstrate how fertility responds
differently to productivity and income growth, depending on whether it emerges in agriculture or industry. Agricultural productivity
and income growth makes food goods, and therefore children, relatively less expensive. Industrial productivity and income
growth, on the other hand, makes food goods, and therefore children, relatively more expensive. The present framework lends
support to existing unified growth theories and is well in tune with historical evidence about structural transformation.
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18.
This paper presents a model of structural change and agglomeration. A decline in transportation costs, by enhancing consumers’ purchasing power, leads to Engel's law of the demand shift from agricultural to non-agricultural goods. At the same time, the decline in transportation costs, by enlarging the extent of the market for non-agricultural goods, induces Petty's law of the labor reallocation from agriculture to non-agricultural activities. These structural transformations weaken dispersion forces given by farmers tied to the land, whereas they strengthen agglomeration forces generated by footloose non-agricultural workers. Thus, a substantial decline in transportation costs gives rise to agglomeration of non-agricultural activities. 相似文献
19.
Organisational change, technology, employment and skills: an empirical study of French manufacturing
This paper analyses the correlations between technological change,organisational change and skill change using a survey on organisationalchange in manufacturing firms conducted in 1993. Considerablediversity is allowed for in terms of the measure of technologicaland organisational change, and the analysis shows a positivecorrelation between technological change and reorganisations,whatever their types. The paper then analyses the relationshipsbetween these changes and the employment behaviour of firms.It shows that changes in the required skills and in the occupationalstructure of firms are more closely connected to organisationalthan to technological change. Although organisational changeaffects the work content and skill requirements of blue collarworkers, it is mainly indirect workers that are affected interms of the number employed. Finally, the analysis shows thattechnology tends to stabilise the workforce whereas the movetowards the model of flexible enterprise favoursits renewal. 相似文献
20.
A decomposition of aggregate productivity growth of German manufacturing firms that pertain to 11 different industries at
a roughly two-digit level observed over the period 1981–1998 is performed. Productivity is measured by a nonparametric frontier
function approach. The decompositions of productivity allow for an explanation of the aggregate outcomes by the quantification
of the effect of structural change and the contributions of entering and exiting firms. Our results show that these forces
drive aggregate productivity to a considerable extent. Remarkably, the large productivity improvements after the German reunification
are mainly driven by structural change.
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Jens J. KrügerEmail: |