FROM DISCRETE TO CONTINUOUS‐TIME TRANSITION MATRICES IN INTRA‐DISTRIBUTION DYNAMICS ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION TO PER CAPITA WEALTH IN EUROPE

Previous studies focusing on the intra‐distribution dynamics analysis have usually computed, in a Markov chain framework, discrete‐time transition matrices. Such an approach, however, can involve some limitations, especially when using stock variables. In order to illustrate the importance of the time‐scale issue when estimating transition matrices, this paper applies both discrete and continuous‐time approaches to a set of cross‐national European data on per capita wealth for the period 2000–10. The results reveal, on the one hand, that the continuous‐time estimation provides a most accurate estimation of transition probabilities and, on the other, that the differences between both approaches are especially remarkable in the long‐term equilibrium distribution.     

Default and liquidity regimes in the bond market during the 2002–2012 period

Using a real‐time random regime shift technique, we identify and discuss two different regimes in the dynamics of credit spreads during 2002–2012: a liquidity regime and a default regime. Both regimes contribute to the patterns observed in credit spreads. The liquidity regime seems to explain the predictive power of credit risk on the 2007–2009 NBER recession, whereas the default regime drives the persistence of credit spreads over the same recession. Our results complement the recent dynamic structural models as well as monetary and credit supply effects models by empirically supporting two important patterns in credit spreads: the persistence and the predictive ability toward economic downturns.     

The relationship between risk-neutral and actual default probabilities: the credit risk premium

The study investigates empirically the relationship between the risk-neutral measure Q and the real-world measure P. We study the ratio between the risk-neutral and actual default intensities, which we call the coverage ratio or the relative credit risk premium. Actual default intensities are derived from rating agencies annual transition matrices, while risk-neutral default intensities are bootstrapped from CDS quotes of European corporates. We quantify the average risk premium and its changes over time. Compared to related literature, special attention is given to the effects of the recent financial and European sovereign crises. We find that average credit risk premia rose substantially and that post-crisis levels are still higher than those observed before the financial crisis. This observation is especially true for high-quality debt and if it persists, it will have an impact on corporates funding costs. The quantification and revision of risk premia contributes to the discussion of the credit spread puzzle and could give extra insights in valuation models that start from real-world estimates. Our work is furthermore important in the context of state aid assessment. The real economic value (REV) methodology, applied by the European Commission to evaluate impaired portfolios, is based on a long-term average risk premium.     

Measuring and Optimizing Portfolio Credit Risk: A Copula‐based Approach*

In this work, we present a methodology for measuring and optimizing the credit risk of a loan portfolio taking into account the non‐normality of the credit loss distribution. In particular, we aim at modelling accurately joint default events for credit assets. In order to achieve this goal, we build the loss distribution of the loan portfolio by Monte Carlo simulation. The times until default of each obligor in portfolio are simulated following a copula‐based approach. In particular, we study four different types of dependence structure for the credit assets in portfolio: the Gaussian copula, the Student's t‐copula, the grouped t‐copula and the Clayton n‐copula (or Cook–Johnson copula). Our aim is to assess the impact of each type of copula on the value of different portfolio risk measures, such as expected loss, maximum loss, credit value at risk and expected shortfall. In addition, we want to verify whether and how the optimal portfolio composition may change utilizing various types of copula for describing the default dependence structure. In order to optimize portfolio credit risk, we minimize the conditional value at risk, a risk measure both relevant and tractable, by solving a simple linear programming problem subject to the traditional constraints of balance, portfolio expected return and trading. The outcomes, in terms of optimal portfolio compositions, obtained assuming different default dependence structures are compared with each other. The solution of the risk minimization problem may suggest us how to restructure the inefficient loan portfolios in order to obtain their best risk/return profile. In the absence of a developed secondary market for loans, we may follow the investment strategies indicated by the solution vector by utilizing credit default swaps.     

Does Over-credit Stimulate Corporate Investment? Evidence from Listed Companies in China

We define and quantify for the first time over-credit at the firm level, which refers to the case in which the amount of bank credit that a firm obtains exceeds its expenditure on corporate investment for the year. Then, we explore how over-credit affects corporate investment to determine whether credit expansion in China is consistent with the principle of finance serving the real economy. The results show that over-credit promotes firm investment, and this effect was enhanced by the housing boom. However, the effect of the property market reversed after 2012, owing to China’s economic transition from a quantitative to a structural mismatch between supply and demand. Finally, we explore how over-credit affects the capacity utilization ratio and whether it has aggravated the overcapacity problem in China. The results show that over-credit reduces firms’ capacity utilization ratio. This finding indicates that excessive credit expansion has exacerbated the overcapacity problem in China.     

Fiscal deficits,banking crises and policy reversal in a semi-open economy

We study the effect of domestic policies and external shocks in a semi-open economy characterized by incomplete liberalization of the financial sector. We argue that in such transition economies stabilization programs can have a negative impact on the fiscal imbalances, offsetting to some extent the very achievement of the stabilization program. We develop a simple general equilibrium model which allows propagation of shocks in the presence of government guarantees and imperfect capital mobility. We also empirically test the impact of positive foreign interest shock on the Indian economy using a reduced form VAR approach. The econometric evidence, though broadly consistent with the main predictions of the model, suggests no significant impact of foreign interest rate shock on output and credit. We conclude that incomplete liberalization of the financial sector in transition economies has two effects. It reduces i) exposure to external financial shocks (like the current credit crisis) and ii) ability to deal with real sector shocks (which may arise from global recession in the medium term) due to endogenous policy reversals and presence of government guarantees.     

Does the banking sector structure matter for credit procyclicality?

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the banking sector structure matters in explaining credit procyclicality for 17 OECD countries over the 1986–2010 period. To this end, we first provide a detailed classification of the banking system structure through the use of a hierarchical clustering methodology. Relying on the estimation of panel VAR models and accounting for potential heterogeneity between countries, we then propose a measure of credit procyclicality based on the impulse-response function of credit to a shock in GDP. Our findings show that while credit significantly responds to shocks in GDP, the structure of the banking sector is not a key factor in assessing the procyclicality of credit for OECD countries.     

Testing time-homogeneity of rating transitions after origination of debt

When modelling rating transitions as continuous-time Markov processes, in practice, time-homogeneity is a common assumption, yet restrictive, in order to reduce the complexity of the model. This paper investigates whether rating transition probabilities change after the origination of debt. Accordingly, we develop a likelihood-ratio test for the hypothesis of time-homogeneity. The alternative is a step function of transition intensities. The test rejects time-homogeneity for rating transitions observed over 7 years in a real corporate portfolio. Especially 1-year transition probabilities increase over the first year after origination. This time effect suggests that banks should manage their credit portfolios with respect to the age of debt.      

Credit constraint and human capital investment: an empirical analysis using Brazilian household budget survey

This article is a first step towards understanding the relationship between credit market imperfections and inequality of opportunity in skill formation. The main goal is to investigate the effects of the credit constraint on the optimal human capital decision, in terms of degree of schooling, taking into account the household preferences for education. Our starting point is a theoretical model of human capital investment decision with credit constraint. Following a previous model in the literature, we propose a reduced-form approach that estimates the relation between education decision and initial wealth in Brazil. Our empirical analysis is conducted using data from a Brazilian Household Budget Survey (Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares), for years 2002–2003 and 2008–2009. Our results point out that education decision is in fact credit constrained. The empirical results show a strong and highly significant effect of wealth on educational level of children, teenagers and adults, even controlling by education expenditures. But we find no evidence of credit constraint on high level education decision, like undergraduate and graduate levels.     

The intraday liquidity management game

We use a game theoretical framework to analyze the intraday behavior of banks with respect to settlement of interbank claims in a real-time gross settlement setting. The game played by banks depends upon the intraday credit policy of the central bank and it encompasses two well-known game theoretical paradigms: the prisoner's dilemma and the stag hunt. The former arises in a collateralized credit regime where banks have an incentive to postpone payments when daylight liquidity is costly, an outcome that is socially inefficient. The latter arises in a priced credit regime where the postponement of payments can be socially efficient. Banks are risk neutral, but we show that most of the results are unaffected by risk aversion.     

Household allocation of microfinance credit in Kyrgyzstan

The limited endowment of resources that usually characterised low-income households imposes a binding trade-off between current and future consumption. In many transition countries, microfinance represents the primary source of credit other than informal moneylenders for low-income households which is the situation in the Kyrgyz Republic. Thus, this study analyses the determinants of household microfinance credit allocation in Kyrgyzstan from 2006 to 2010. We model the household’s behaviour through a multivariate approach to allow for multiple choices at the same time. Results indicate that mobile phone and livestock ownership were identified as two key factors which increase the probability of borrowers using microfinance credit for productive purposes. Furthermore, borrowers in the rural Naryn region, one of the poorest areas in Kyrgyzstan, have a higher probability of allocating their loans toward food purchases and the smallest probability of allocating credit toward starting a business or other productive purposes.     

Macroeconomic transitions and the transmission mechanism: Evidence from Turkey

This paper investigates changes to the macroeconomic transmission mechanism in Turkey following a major reform of monetary policy in the early 2000s. We use a Threshold VAR (TVAR) framework to test for and then estimate a model with endogenous transitions between regimes. We detect two regimes, with a clear transition between them in 2003–4. The pre-reform regime is characterized by high inflation, passive monetary policy and persistent responses to shocks. The post-reform regime is characterized by low inflation, active and credible monetary policy and markedly less persistent responses to shocks. Using a model that contains sufficient variables to capture diverse transmission mechanisms, working through the real exchange rate, domestic credit and monetary policy, we find evidence of sharp changes in transmission mechanisms. Post-reform, the response of Turkey to macroeconomic shocks has changed to be similar to those in other modern, market-orientated economies.     

Short-run dynamics in bank credit: Assessing nonlinearities in cyclicality

This paper explores whether the procyclicality of private credit changes during the business cycle. To this end, we rely on the estimation of smooth transition regression models for a sample of 17 OECD countries over the 1986–2010 period. Our findings show that credit procyclicality is nonlinear, depending on economic conditions. More specifically, credit is highly procyclical in extreme – booms and busts – regimes in Canada, the UK and the US, while procyclicality is less pronounced in one or both extreme regimes in Australia, Belgium, France, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Spain. Our results also emphasize the importance of financial factors in explaining the short-run behavior of private credit.     

Nonlinear economic growth: Some theory and cross-country evidence

This paper aims to test the existence of different growth regimes, that is of different relationships between growth rate and income level. We propose a simple nonlinear growth model and test its empirical implications by estimating Markov transition matrices and stochastic kernels. We show that growth is indeed nonlinear: a first phase of slow or zero growth is followed by a take-off and, finally, by a phase of deceleration. We discuss the relevance of these results with respect to the issue of convergence and reversibility of development, in the light of models of structural change and technological diffusion.     

中国转型期的信贷波动与经济波动

本文基于1981-2002年的季度数据,考察了在经济转轨的不同阶段我国信贷波动的特征,并通过时差相关分析和Granger因果关系检验,分析了信贷波动与经济周期波动的相互关系.结果表明,总体上信贷波动与经济周期波动基本同步,信贷扩张和收缩是产生经济周期波动的显著影响因素,但这种影响从20世纪90年代中期开始有所下降,同时,信贷波动的内生性开始显现.     

Information sharing and the volume of private credit in transition: Evidence from Ukrainian bank-level panel data

The effect of lenders' information sharing on the volume of credit is ambiguous in theory and underexplored empirically. Departing from the scant existing literature, which draws on country-level aggregate data, we study the impact of information sharing on the volume of private credit by examining unique bank-level panel data from Ukraine, a transition economy where information sharing among banks is only a recent phenomenon. Employing the fixed-effects framework and dynamic panel methods to address endogeneity due to the non-exogenous nature of banks' choice to participate in information sharing, we find no credit volume effect of information sharing when information sharing takes place through the central bank-administered public credit registry. In contrast, information sharing through private credit bureaus is associated with an increase in the volume of bank lending, in particular when a bank is partner of multiple private credit bureaus. This effect is robust and non-negligible in magnitude.     

Adoption and disadoption of electric cookstoves in urban Ethiopia: Evidence from panel data

Previous studies on improved cookstove adoption in developing countries use cross-sectional data, which make it difficult to control for unobserved heterogeneity and investigate what happens to adoption over time. We use robust non-linear panel data and hazard models on three rounds of panel data from urban Ethiopia to investigate the determinants of adoption and disadoption of electric cookstoves over time. We find that the prices of electricity and firewood and access to credit are major determinants of adoption and transition. Our findings have important implications for policies aiming at promotion of energy transition and reduction of the pressure on forest resources in developing countries.     

电子商务信誉评价研究综述

在网络环境下,商家的信用评价标准应与传统公司信用的评价标准不同。为此,在回顾了不同学者对于信任和信誉的定义后,对学者在电子商务信誉评价方面所开展的研究进行了综述,并分别从C2C环境下的信誉评价研究和B2C环境下的信誉评价研究这两个角度对研究工作进行了总结。     

Collapsing Exchange Rate Regime Under Optimal Monetary Control

In this paper, we analyse the problem of optimal domestic credit expansion for a small open economy. We show that (i) the transition from the fixed to the flexible exchange rate regime proceeds smoothly with no speculative attack on the central bank's foreign reserves; (ii) once the exchange rate has floated, it will never be optimal to repeg it afterward; (iii) even under uncertainty, there will not be any speculative attack; however, the optimal rate of credit expansion jumps discontinuously at the date of complete depletion of the known stock of foreign reserves.