THE LEAD–LAG RELATION BETWEEN THE S&P500 SPOT AND FUTURES MARKETS: AN INTRADAY-DATA ANALYSIS USING A THRESHOLD REGRESSION MODEL

In this paper we examine the lead–lag interaction between the futures and spot markets of the S&P500 using the threshold regression model on intraday data. The use of threshold variables to model the changes in the regression structure with respect to different market conditions enables us to investigate the lead–lag interaction in a data-based approach and avoid stratifying the data arbitrarily. Using the basis as the threshold variable, we find that the short-selling restrictions in the spot market reduce the effect of the spot index as the leading variable. To study the effect of market-wide information on the interaction between the spot and futures markets, we use the coefficient of determination in the regression of the S&P500 on the Morgan–Stanley Composite Index-US and the Major Market Index as the threshold variable. We find that the lead effect of the futures market over the spot market is stronger when there is more market-wide information. On the other hand, the lead effect of the cash market over the futures market is weaker when there is more market-wide information. In addition, we also use the lagged 45-min return of the spot market as the threshold variable. We find that the lead effect of the spot market is stronger in periods of directionless trading than in periods of good or bad markets.     

Forecasting the S&P 500 index volatility

This study introduces a new pre-differencing transformation for the AR1MA model for forecasting S&P 500 index volatility. The out of sample forecasting performance of the ARIMA model using the new pre-differencing transformation is compared with the out of sample forecasting performance of the mean reversion model and the GARCH model. The ARIMA model using the new pre-differencing transformation introduced in this study is found to be superior to both the mean reversion model and the GARCH model in forecasting monthly S&P 500 index volatility for the forecast comparison periods used in this study.     

The risk-return relation and VIX: evidence from the S&P 500

A significantly positive risk-return relation for the S&P 500 market index is detected if the squared implied volatility index (VIX) is allowed for as an exogenous variable in the conditional variance equation of the parsimonious GARCH(1,1) model. This result holds for both daily and weekly observations, for extended conditional mean and variance specifications, and is robust to sub-samples. We show that the conditional variance obtained from the GARCH model with VIX has better predictive ability for realized volatility than the conditional variance from GARCH without VIX and VIX itself, thereby documenting an important information content of VIX for conditional variance. The results are interpreted as evidence that adding VIX squared in the conditional variance equation yields a better measure of conditional variance which, subsequently, uncovers a strong risk-return relation.     

Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models

This paper studies the nonlinear adjustment between industrial production and carbon prices – coined as ‘the carbon-macroeconomy relationship’ – in the EU 27. We model carbon price returns and industrial production as nonlinear and state-dependent, with dynamics depending on the sign and magnitude of past realization of returns and the growth of industrial production. Our findings show that (i) macroeconomic activity is likely to affect carbon prices with a lag, due to the specific institutional constraints of this environmental market; (ii) the joint dynamics of industrial production and carbon prices seem adequately captured by two-regime threshold vector error-correction and two-regime Markov-switching VAR models compared to linear models as main competitors. The regime-switching models proposed are profoundly checked for their economic content and statistical congruency, and are found to provide a sound statistical framework for a comprehensive analysis of the carbon-macroeconomy relationship.     

Crossing of Psychological Price Levels: The Price Dynamics and Interaction between S&P500 Index and Index Futures

The authors provide fresh evidence on the nonfundamental-driven price dynamics and interaction between index and index futures by examining the price movements of the S&P500 index and index futures surrounding the crossing of the 00 psychological barriers and 52-week highs and lows. In contrast to the extant evidence that futures leads in fundamental-driven price movements, the authors show the dominance of the crossing in the index in continuing the price trend after the crossing. Even when synchronized crossings occur, the index rises more than the index futures during upward crossings, whereas the index futures falls more than the index during downward crossings. While volatility is significantly reduced before upward crossings, but not for downward crossings, it is significantly higher during the crossing, and significantly lower after the crossings in both markets. These findings have clear practical implications for index arbitrageurs, investors, and regulators.     

Forecasting the volatility of S&P depositary receipts using GARCH-type models under intraday range-based and return-based proxy measures

We employ four various GARCH-type models, incorporating the skewed generalized t (SGT) errors into those returns innovations exhibiting fat-tails, leptokurtosis and skewness to forecast both volatility and value-at-risk (VaR) for Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts (SPDRs) from 2002 to 2008. Empirical results indicate that the asymmetric EGARCH model is the most preferable according to purely statistical loss functions. However, the mean mixed error criterion suggests that the EGARCH model facilitates option buyers for improving their trading position performance, while option sellers tend to favor the IGARCH/EGARCH model at shorter/longer trading horizon. For VaR calculations, although these GARCH-type models are likely to over-predict SPDRs' volatility, they are, nevertheless, capable of providing adequate VaR forecasts. Thus, a GARCH genre of model with SGT errors remains a useful technique for measuring and managing potential losses on SPDRs under a turbulent market scenario.     

A Phillips curve interpretation of error-correction models of the wage and price dynamics

This paper presents a model of employment, distribution andinflation in which a modern error correction specification ofthe nominal wage and price dynamics (referring to claims onincome by workers and firms) occupies a prominent role. It isbrought out, explicitly, how this rather typical error-correctionsetting, which actually seems to capture the wage and pricedynamics of many large-scale econometric models quite well,is fully compatible with the notion of an old-fashioned Phillipscurve with finite slope. It is shown how the steady-state impactof various shocks to the model can be profitably conceived ofand interpreted in terms of (and to some extent even calculatedby means of) this long-run Phillips curve.     

Measuring China’s trade liberalization: A generalized measure of trade restrictiveness index

Neither simple average nor import-weighted average tariff indexes are ideal measures of tariff barriers. In this paper, we propose a generalized trade restrictiveness index (GTRI) that extends Feenstra’s (1995) tariff restrictiveness index (TRI) by relaxing the crucial assumption of a small open economy. We show that the GTRI can be measured using import tariffs, import shares, and the corresponding import and foreign export elasticities. We then apply the GTRI to examine how trade restrictiveness has evolved in China from 1997 to 2008, the period in which China entered the WTO. The GTRI indicates a higher level of protection than simple and import-weighted averages, but lower than the TRI. We further show a negative correlation between tariffs and product export supply elasticity, indicating that strategic trade policy was being pursued prior to China’s WTO accession. Finally, we calculate the welfare loss and terms-of-trade gain due to tariff protection. The overall tariff pass-through increases from around 28% to almost 47% because of the WTO.     

Default and liquidity regimes in the bond market during the 2002–2012 period

Using a real‐time random regime shift technique, we identify and discuss two different regimes in the dynamics of credit spreads during 2002–2012: a liquidity regime and a default regime. Both regimes contribute to the patterns observed in credit spreads. The liquidity regime seems to explain the predictive power of credit risk on the 2007–2009 NBER recession, whereas the default regime drives the persistence of credit spreads over the same recession. Our results complement the recent dynamic structural models as well as monetary and credit supply effects models by empirically supporting two important patterns in credit spreads: the persistence and the predictive ability toward economic downturns.     

Testing for threshold cointegration and error correction: evidence in the petroleum futures market

This article examines the existence of threshold cointegration between futures and spot prices for the Brent petroleum market. We then estimate the asymmetric error-correction specification utilizing the Momentum Threshold Autoregressive Consistent (M-TAR-C) approach particularly proposed by Enders and Siklos (2001 Enders, W and Siklos, PL. 2001. Cointegration and threshold adjustment. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 19: 166–76. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We find that, for the daily data over 2 January 2001 through 15 October 2006, the petroleum futures prices are cointegrated with the spot prices. This effectively confirms the expectations hypothesis and that asymmetric adjustments for the futures basis towards the long-run value display a negative basis from the long-run equilibrium level more persistently than a positive basis from that level. The empirical result suggests that short-run arbitrages manipulating buy-long (sell-short) futures contracts be profitable when a positive basis is weakening (a negative basis is strengthening).     

A unified treatment of finite and infinite economies: limited arbitrage is necessary and sufficient for the existence of equilibrium and the core

Summary. A single condition, limited arbitrage, is shown to be necessary and sufficient for the existence of a competitive equilibrium and the core in economies with any number of markets, finite or infinite, with or without short sales. This extends earlier results of Chichilnisky [8] for finite economies. This unification of finite and infinite economies is achieved by proving that in Hilbert spaces limited arbitrage is necessary and sufficient for the compactness of the Pareto frontier. Limited arbitrage has also been shown to be necessary and sufficient for a resolution of the social choice paradox [9], [10], [12], [13], [14]. Received: August 4, 1995; revised version: April 11, 1997     

R&D intensity,firm performance and the identification of the threshold: fresh evidence from the panel threshold regression model

This article tests whether there is an optimal level of research and development (R&D) intensity at which point a firm is able to maximize its performance. An advanced panel threshold regression model is employed to investigate the panel threshold effect of R&D intensity on firm performance among publicly traded Taiwan information technology and electronic firms. The results confirm that a single-threshold effect does exist and show an inverted-U correlation between R&D intensity and firm performance. This article demonstrates that it is possible to identify the definitive level beyond which a further increase in R&D expenditure does not yield proportional rewards. Some important policy implications emerge from the findings.     

A different look at Lenin’s legacy: Social capital and risk taking in the Two Germanies

What are the long-term effects of Communism on economically relevant notions such as social trust, fairness, and scope of cooperation? To answer this question, we study the post-unification trajectory of convergence between East and West German individuals with regard to trust, cooperation, and risk. Our hypotheses are derived from a model of German unification that incorporates individual responses both to incentives and to values inherited from earlier generations as recently suggested in the literature. Using two waves of balanced panel data, we find that despite twenty years of unification East Germans are still characterized by a persistent level of social distrust. In comparison to West Germans, they are less inclined to see others as cooperative. East Germans are also found to have been more risk loving than West Germans. However, risk attitudes fully converged recently.     

Neckties in the tropics: a model of international trade and cultural diversity

Abstract .  Some cultural goods are consumed socially and are characterized by the same consumption network externalities as languages. Also, producers of new cultural goods in any one country draw on the stock of ideas generated by previous cultural production in all countries. For such goods, costless trade and communication tend to lead to the dominance of one cultural style, increasing utility in the short run but reducing quality and welfare in the long run. Increasing protection while keeping communication costs low may stimulate production of cultural goods that are 'compatible' with the dominant style, adding little to the stock of usable ideas.     

Methods in futures studies: A view from the theory of science

Viewing forecasting in terms of three modes, as predictions deduced from tested scientific theories, as trend extrapolations, and as heuristics, it is shown that most long-term predictions are inherently contingent. They do not tell us what will happen unconditionally, but what will happen, in case something else happens. Hence futures studies will not show us any predetermined future, but rather different ways of shaping the future. Scientific predictions, trend extrapolation, and heuristic methods are the most important approaches to forecasting. If they are properly understood, this will help understanding other less important methods also.     

The existence of factor substitution in the primary aluminium industry: A multivariate error-correction approach using Norwegian panel data

This paper presents an econometric analysis of factor demands in the Norwegian primary aluminium industry using annual plant-level panel data. The translog cost function approach is applied, and a multivariate error-correction model of the cost shares of labour, raw materials and electricity is estimated. Capital is assumed tobe quasi-fixed. The hypothesis of fixed input coefficients is rejected for this industry, but the estimated own-price and cross-price elasticities suggest that relative price variations have limited effect on conditional factor demands.     

A model of the innovation-adaptation mechanism driving economic dynamics: a micro representation

The model that this paper sets out is based on a combination of the Schumpeterian creative destruction and the neo-Austrian notion of market process. It gives a formalization of the succession innovation-structural organization and its endogenous mechanism, crucial to explain economic growth and development. More in particular, the essay gives an explanation of innovation, endogenous uncertainty and describes the way equilibrating and disequilibrating processes are intertwined and operate. It also shows that a representation of this dynamic competition process cannot do without some appropriate development on entrepreneurship and its links with uncertainty. Finally, some simulations with the proposed model are providedJEL Classification: M13, O31, D80, E32, O12I am indebted to C. R. Wymer for his advice and for the computer programs that have permitted the simulation of the model in this paper, including choice and substitutions of variables and specification of inequality conditions. These programs form part of the WYSEA (System Estimation and Analysis) package.     

The Number of Bank Relationships of SMEs: A Disaggregated Analysis of Changes in the Swiss Loan Market

This paper investigates changes in the number of bank relationships of small and medium-sized enterprises in Switzerland from 1996 to 2002. It differentiates between overall bank relationships and lending relationships and disaggregates the loan market with respect to firm sizes, industries and banking groups. On average, bank lending declined, and the concentration of lending relationships increased. The changes seem to have been driven by demand and supply for medium-sized firms, but only by supply for micro and small firms. Supply-side reductions resulted from a merger and changes in credit risk management by major banks. We find evidence of increasing specialization of larger banks on transaction lending and of smaller and regional banks on relationship lending.