Persistence of cattle ranching in the Brazilian Amazon: A spatial analysis of the rationale for beef production

Fed by demand for beef within Brazil and in global markets, the Brazilian herd grew from 147 million head of cattle in 1990 to ≈200 million in 2007. Eighty-three percent of this expansion occurred in the Amazon and this trend is expected to continue as the industry bounces back from a recent agricultural downturn. Intensification of the cattle industry has been suggested as one way to reduce pressure on forest margins and spare land for soybean or sugarcane production, and is the cornerstone of Brazil's plan for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. To this end, federal credit programs and research and development activities in Brazil are aligning to support intensification goals, but there is no guarantee that this push for intensification will decrease the demand for land at the forest margin and as result curb CO₂ emissions from deforestation. In this paper we use a spatially explicit rent model which incorporates the local effects of biophysical characteristics, infrastructure, land prices, and distance to markets and slaughterhouses to calculate 30-year Net Present Values (NPVs) of extensive cattle ranching across the Brazilian Amazon. We use the model to ask where extensive ranching is profitable and how land acquisition affects profitability. We estimate that between 17% and 80% of land in the Amazon would have moderate to high NPVs when ranched extensively if it were settled, i.e. if the rancher does not buy the land but acquires it through land grabbing. In addition, we estimate that between 9% and 13% of land in the Amazon is vulnerable to speculation (i.e. areas with positive NPVs only if land is settled and not purchased), which suggests that land speculation is an important driver of extensive ranching profitability, and may continue to be in the future. These results suggest that pro-intensification policies such as credit provision for improved pasture management and investment in more intensive production systems must be accompanied by implementation and enforcement of policies that alter the incentives to clear forest for pasture, discourage land speculation, and increase accountability for land management practices if intensification of the cattle sector is to deter new deforestation and displace production from low-yield, extensive cattle production systems in frontier regions of the Brazilian Amazon.     

Incentivizing sustainable rangeland practices and policies in Colombia’s Orinoco region

Livestock grazing, along with agriculture, are key drivers of deforestation and land degradation that subsequently affect ecosystem service provision in the tropics. Although environmental and agricultural policies may curtail these negative effects, information is needed on how specific programs and instruments could be used to incentivize ranchers into adopting rangeland practices to achieve land conservation. We examine what encourages livestock ranchers to adopt more sustainable rangeland practices with various technical and conservation attributes in Colombia’s Orinoco region. First, we analyze a management alternative based on an improved pasture (IP) approach traditionally used in tropical South America, and another practice that promotes silvopastoral systems (SP) that better sustain the long term provision of ecosystem services. Second, we assess the influence that technical assistance and conservation payment instruments can have on the adoption of the IP or SP programs. Using expert-based elicitation, questionnaires, choice experiments, and econometrics, we found that when either SP or IP management alternatives include a complete technical assistance program (CTAP), emphasizing forage or cattle production, the propensity to adopt the conservation focused SP alternative significantly increases. The SP alternative with CTAP for cattle production was valued by ranchers at $290 ha/year and the CTAP prioritizing forage production was valued at $233 per ha/year. Nonetheless, a basic technical assistance program for cattle production using the IP alternative was valued at $128, but when including the CTAP, the value increased to $262. Adopting conservation practices in the form of compensation payments for not grazing portions of their land in the SP was valued by ranchers at an average of $8 and $10 in the IP. Our findings show that decisions to adopt conservation oriented rangeland practices and policies are not strictly based on monetary payments for ecosystem services alone, but also on technical support.     

Crossing spatial analyses and livestock economics to understand deforestation processes in the Brazilian Amazon: the case of São Félix do Xingú in South Pará

The Amazon is the largest tropical forest area on Earth, and has been undergoing rapid deforestation for the last four decades. In the Brazilian Amazon, large‐scale pasture for cattle ranching and soybean production are the main land uses, leading to a yearly deforestation rate of 0.5%. These conversions are mostly located in frontier areas distributed along the so‐called “arc of deforestation”. Within this large zone, various land use change processes are interacting through several modes of land valuation and organisation. From several case studies in the State of Pará (Brazil), the current project aims at analysing how landscape dynamics are related to infrastructure development, ecological conditions, zoning policies and to the evolution and the organisation of the production, consumption and marketing chains of livestock products. This paper presents the results for one test site, the region of São Félix do Xingú, South of Pará This region is the focus of land speculation, cattle expansion, and deforestation. Road construction, investments in electrical energy, financial credit for cattle, and the land reform policies have all fuelled this process. All these factors make this region one of the most dynamic agricultural frontiers in the Brazilian Amazon. The main objective of the paper is to improve our understanding of deforestation processes by crossing spatial analyses and 1ivestock economics.studies, and to characterise the role and impact of various natural and anthropic factors in the location and development of the main types of farmers, and their policy implications.     

Drug trafficking,cattle ranching and Land use and Land cover change in Guatemala’s Maya Biosphere Reserve

Drug trafficking organizations are driving deforestation in Guatemala’s Maya Biosphere Reserve. Drug traffickers deforest the protected area in order to illegally ranch cattle, which serves as a mechanism of money laundering, drug smuggling, and territory control. Journalists and ethnographers have analyzed “narco-cattle ranching” activities in the reserve and resulting “narco-deforestation,” yet land use change scientists have yet to quantify the contribution of illegal cattle ranching to forest loss. This article uses remote sensing and GIS analysis to distinguish the relative contribution of cattle ranching, farming, and land speculation to reserve deforestation and other forms of land use and land cover change. We also use ethnographic methods to provide evidentiary links between illegal cattle ranching and drug trafficking activities that suggest a large part, but not all, of illegal cattle ranching is narco-capitalized. Our research finds that illegal cattle ranching is responsible for the majority of reserve deforestation, ranging from 59 to 87% of photographs on deforested lands in three sampled areas. We also found illegal cattle ranching activities are the highest in the reserve’s western national parks, which should be strictly protected from land use change. Contrary to popular debate, these findings suggest drug traffickers in the context of the US-led War on Drugs are to blame for forest loss, not subsistence farmers illegally living in the reserve.     

Further generalization of Faustmann's formula for stochastic interest rates

Markov decision process (MDP) models generalize Faustmann's formula by recognizing that future stand states, prices, and interest rates, are not known exactly. Buongiorno (Forest Science 47(4) 2001) presents a dynamic programming and a linear programming formulation of the MDP model with a fixed interest rate. Both formulations are generalized here to account for a stochastic interest rate. The objective function is the expected present value of returns over an infinite horizon. It gives, like Faustmann's formula, the value of the land and the eventual standing trees. The changes between stand states, prices, and interest rate, are represented by Markov chains. Faustmann's formula is a special case where the change from one state to another has 0 or 1 probability, and the interest rate is constant. The MDP model applies to any stand state, even- or uneven-aged, and the best decisions are tied uniquely to the current system state. An example shows the effects of recognizing variations in interest rate on the land expectation value, and the cost of ignoring them.     

Land governance as a precondition for decreasing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

This paper’s aim is to show that improvements in land governance in Brazil, and particularly in the Amazon region, have been the main pre-condition enabling reductions in deforestation of the Amazon rainforest. Deforestation occurs primarily where property rights are not clearly established, and occurs mostly on land directly or indirectly under state responsibility. This paper also shows that land speculation plays an important role in deforestation. Based on these findings, it is evident that Brazil must improve its land governance in order to decrease rates of deforestation. The Brazilian government has adopted important new efforts to improve land administration, including improvements in the registration process and the Terra Legal program, which are addressing public land problems across large areas of the Amazon. The concluding section highlights how efforts to reduce deforestation will only be possible through more efficient land governance, especially in the Amazon region, and discusses the important role that participatory land governance may play in improving land use and land ownership through application of land taxes.     

A model of shifting cultivation: can soil conservation reduce deforestation?

Shifting cultivators manage soil not only by adjusting soil use on already‐cleared lands, as in continuous cultivation, but also by clearing forests to obtain new fertile soils. This study examines the crucial link between on‐farm soil conservation and deforestation in shifting cultivation by modeling forest clearing as an investment in soil for a private farmer. More generally, by doing so the study attempts to integrate deforestation and soil conservation models which have been separately developed in the literature. Our policy goal is to arrest tropical deforestation—as destruction of global commons—caused by land degradation in shifting cultivation while improving the well‐being of poor shifting cultivators. Our integrated approach enables joint policy analyses of deforestation and land degradation. Three welfare‐enhancing policies are considered. The first is agricultural and nonagricultural subsidies affecting farm and nonfarm income opportunities. The second is fiscal and tenure policies affecting discount rates. Our question is whether the link between forest clearing and soil fertility alters the outcomes of these two standard macroeconomic policies commonly found in the literature. The third policy (or program) is various soil conservation measures affecting soil regeneration and erosivity on already‐cleared lands. This article examines a very important question which has received little attention in previous theoretical works: can soil conservation reduce deforestation? This study confirms anti‐deforestation effects of the promotion of nonfarming activities—a common and often emphasized finding in previous works—among shifting cultivators. More importantly, it also demonstrates that improving various soil conservation measures not only discourages forest clearing among shifting cultivators but also tends to have greater effects on forest protection than promoting nonfarming activities. Contrarily, agricultural price subsidy or technological progress gives rise to the opposite outcome, and lowering the farmer's discount rate or improving tenure security encourages him/her to clear more forests just to accumulate soil.     

The incidence of agricultural policy on the land market in Poland: Two-dimensional and multilevel analysis

Research has shown that the reform of the CAP which broke the link between subsidies and production (the decoupling reform) has had little effect on farmers’ demand for land under the SPS (Single Payment Scheme) system. For this reason, in the conditions of the SPS, there is petrifaction of the structure of agricultural land, and an upward trend in prices on the market for agricultural land should not be expected to continue in the long term. Under the conditions of the SAPS (Single Area Payment Scheme), which applies in the EU-12 new Member States, the position in the market for agricultural land is different. However, most research carried out in Europe relates to the SPS system, where marginal changes in the value of land are identified as a result of the incidence of agricultural policy, as well as quantitative and qualitative attributes of particular properties. Under SAPS, these issues have not been sufficiently investigated. The authors have attempted to fill that gap, constructing a two-dimensional and multilevel econometric model for land prices in a leading agricultural region of Poland based on a sample of 653 transactions in the years 2010–2013. The aim is to determine how policy, as well as various quantitative and qualitative features, including location factors, affect the prices of land under SAPS. The results indicate, among other things, the key importance of the functional type of rural areas – properties in agrotouristic areas gained 43% higher prices on average than those in agricultural areas. Another finding of interest is that LFA and agro-environmental payments decapitalise the value of land.     

世界主要地区矿业税费研究

文章对北美、拉丁美洲、非洲、大洋洲和印度次大陆五个世界上重要的矿业资源与矿业开发区开展了矿业税费研究,对矿业税费结构、税费率、税费抵扣与补贴、矿业有效税率,以及税费与矿业可持续发展的关系进行了分析。研究结果显示,北美和拉丁美洲为全球的低矿业税费区,大洋洲与非洲为较高税费区,印度次大陆为高税费区。研究结果表明,矿业税费的设计应以平衡利润在政府与企业间的优化分配为目标,既要保持政府的合理收入,又要满足企业经济活力的需要,以达到为国家经济可持续发展提供矿产资源和矿物原材料保障的目的。     

Bioelectricity in Malaysia: economic feasibility,environmental and deforestation implications

We investigate the economic feasibility of bioelectricity production from biomass in Malaysia and its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storage, agricultural prices, agricultural employment and deforestation. For this purpose, we develop a partial equilibrium model that projects agricultural prices, production, imports, exports, domestic consumption and land use in 5‐year increments between 2015 and 2065. Our results show that by 2030 biomass‐generated electricity can supply 36.5 per cent of the electricity generated in Malaysia, 16 times more than the 2016 electricity supply from biomass. Increased bioelectricity production from biomass will significantly reduce GHG emissions and will help Malaysia meet its commitment in the Paris Agreement to mitigate GHG emission by 45 per cent before 2030. Our modelling shows that biomass‐generated electricity creates a derived demand for waste biomass that expands the area of oil palm plantations. The expansion lowers agricultural prices, boosts agricultural employment and leads to some deforestation as landowners clear rainforest to plant oil palm trees. Nonetheless, the deforestation does not increase GHG emissions since GHG gains from bioelectricity significantly exceed GHG losses from deforestation.     

Economics of erosion-control and seed-fertilizer technologies for hillside farming in Honduras

With population growth still at very high rates and large-scale commercial farmers and cattle ranchers owning much of the more fertile valley land, small-scale farmers are concentrated on increasingly marginal, steeply sloping hillsides in Central America. The continuing soil erosion and land degradation in these low-input staple crop production hillside farming systems lead many to be pessimistic about increasing the agricultural incomes of these farmers. However, this study shows that the appropriate combination of improved technologies and agricultural policy or alternative production diversification strategies can improve the incomes of small-scale hillside farmers in southern Honduras by over 50%. The technology components considered are stone walls and ditches combined with living tree barriers to prevent erosion of the hillsides, and a package of improved sorghum seed, seed treatment, and modest doses of nitrogenous fertilizer. A whole-farm mathematical programming framework is used to determine the potential farm-level income effects of the soil-conservation and seed-fertilizer technologies. The main conclusion is that erosion-control devices and yield-increasing crop varieties and fertilizer are an effective technology introduction strategy for the erosion-prone hillside landholdings found in many areas of Central America. If policy actions or diversification strategies for disposal of surplus grain are found which are effective in reducing the risk of low income from cereal price reductions in high-production years, adoption of the improved technologies is shown to be profitable for small-scale farmers. Another benefit not explicitly considered would be to slow the very rapid growth of urban poverty in these countries. Sensitivity analysis results indicated that neither risk aversion nor the increased availability of crop land or initial cash have any substantial effects on the predicted adoption level of the improved technologies, or on their income impacts for these farmers.     

Inflation,capital markets and the supply of beef

This paper puts forward an explanation for the negative elasticity of supply of beef found in many LDC's. As is explained by Jarvis (1974), the elasticity of supply of beef may be negative in the short run due to the dual role of cattle as both a capital and a consumption good. But in some LDC's, and especially in Latin America, one may find a long-run negative association between slaughter and prices, that cannot be explained by assuming shocks to slaughter are causing changes in prices. It is no coincidence that Jarvis' hypothesis itself was developed to explain developments in Argentina, a country with chronic high inflation. The paper argues that this long-run relationship cannot be explained by the Jarvis hypothesis, and offers an alternative hypothesis based on the demand for cattle as a hedge against inflation. The long-run negative association between slaughter and prices has been found in high inflation countries. High inflation combined with excessive regulation of capital markets cause the well known phenomenon of desintermediation. It is argued here that cattle plays a role in the inflation hedged portfolio that is then demanded. Therefore, with imperfect capital markets the supply of beef is affected by the demand for cattle as an asset, and this demand, in turn, is affected by inflation. This paper will only attempt to prove the link between imperfect capital markets and the supply of beef. The way inflation in a repressed capital market leads to an imperfect capital market is not addressed here, for reasons of brevity. The paper will develop a model that in the context of imperfect capital markets results in a negative elasticity of supply. The model will then be tested with Uruguayan data. Uruguayan data are very adequate to test the hypothesis because they cover both a period without inflation and a period of high inflation. The results support that cattle was used as an alternative to money holdings when inflation signified a big tax on the latter. Inflation therefore affected the demand for cattle, or, conversely, the supply of beef.     

Agrarian elite participation in Colombia's civil war

Direct elite participation in civil wars remains unexplored terrain. It should be analytically telling, because it involves taking major risks and costs. Here, we consider the direct participation of one rural elite—big cattle ranchers—in the Colombian paramilitary saga. We claim that it was massive, locally specific, regulated by institutions, and riddled by permanent collective action issues. We focus on two important forms of direct participation: ranchers as leaders of paramilitary groups, and ranchers as promoters and beneficiaries of coercive land dispossession. This does not cover the full spectrum of potential elite participation in war, but it is a key starting point to sort out the ways in which extreme inequality is associated with political violence from above.     

From the Holocene to the Anthropocene: A historical framework for land cover change in southwestern South America in the past 15,000 years

The main forest transitions that took place in south-central Chile from the end of the last glaciation to the present are reviewed here with the aim of identifying the main climatic and socio-economic drivers of land cover change. The first great transition, driven primarily by global warming, is the postglacial expansion of forests, with human populations from about 15,000 cal. yr. BP, restricted to coastlines and river basins and localized impact of forest fire. Charcoal evidence of fire increased in south-central Chile and in global records from about 12,000 to 6000 cal. yr. BP, which could be attributed at least partly to people. The subsequent expansion of agriculture led to much clearing of forests and the spread of weeds and other indicators of open habitats. The Spanish colonial period in America may have been followed by a transient expansion of forest cover into abandoned land, as indigenous population declined rapidly due to disease and slaughter. The 18th and 19th centuries brought about extensive loss of forests due to the massive impact of lumber extraction for mining operations both in central Chile and in western North America. Two centuries of intensive deforestation, coupled to grazing by cattle and extremely variable rainfall had long-lasting effects on forest cover in south-central Chile, which persist until today. The transition from a preindustrial to an industrial society brought about the “golden age” of timber harvest, assisted by mobile sawmills and railway transportation since the late 1800s. These advances led to the exhaustion of native commercial timber by the late 20th century in south-central Chile. In North America, harvestable stands were exhausted in New England and the Midwest around 1920. Settlement of the independent territories in the late 1800s and early 1900s implied vast burning and clearing of land and mounting soil erosion. Industrial forestry, based on government-subsidized massive plantations of short-rotation exotic trees, developed in the late 20th century, in connection with postindustrial displacement of exploitative activities from developed to third-world nations. In the last two decades, economic globalization and free trade promoted the expansion of new crops and further decline of woodlands, despite modest increases in forest cover. These patterns are repeated in many Latin American countries. To prevent further depletion of native forest resources and to provide an insurance against climate change, in the 21st century developing nations should aim at: (1) relocating subsidies from fiber farms to restoring diverse forest cover, (2) promoting ecosystem management of diverse forest and crops within landscapes, and (3) fostering diverse cultural relationships between people and their land.     

论土地价格的本质及其来源

研究目的：论证土地价格的本质及来源,凝练土地经济学规律。研究方法：归纳与演绎法,文献研究法。研究结果：土地作为自然资源和生产要素,在人类社会出现土地私人占有以后就出现了土地价格;土地价格是在交换过程中形成的,是土地占有或放弃占有的对价;土地价格是土地利用能力的标尺,是土地财产价值量的经济表征;土地的本质属性决定了土地价格变化的特殊性;土地价格最终取决于土地利用能力,土地价格是其预期收益的购买价格。研究结论：土地价格最终来源于土地产出品价格,应遵循这一基本规律认识和解决土地经济问题。     

Wave of mutilation: the cattle mutilation phenomenon of the 1970s

During the 1970s many small-scale cattle ranchers across the Midwest reported finding their cattle mutilated. The episode, often dismissed as mass hysteria or sensationalized reporting, demonstrates the growing dissatisfaction of many ranchers concerning government intrusiveness and restrictive policies. These frustrations found a release in response to the mutilation phenomenon during which ranchers vented their anger by taking direct aim at the federal government. The turbulent economic conditions of the period paired with government interference in the cattle industry helped sustain the mutilation phenomenon as ranchers projected their fears and insecurities through the bizarre episode. The hostility ranchers showed toward the federal government during the mutilation scare presaged and helped provide the impetus for events such as the Sagebrush Rebellion. The mutilation phenomenon also underscores the pronounced effects of the libertarian movement of the 1960s that gave rise to the New Right and gained adherents across the West and Midwest.     

Agricultural Credit Subsidies and Farmland Values in Canada

The objective of this study is to determine the impact of farm credit subsidies on the value of farmland in Canada. The price-components model based on the capitalization principle is developed and estimated using the pooled data from four selected provinces (Quebec, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Saskatchewan) from 1972 to 1991. The results show that increases (decreases) in interest subsidies are expected to increase (decrease) farmland and building values. However, the short-term impact is estimated to be small. The regional analysis shows that the abolition of interest subsidies across the country is likely to have a relatively higher impact on land and building values in Quebec than in the prairie provinces.     

UK FISCAL CHANGES AND NEW FORESTRY PLANTING

The taxation and grant arrangements for UK forestry were radically changed in April 1988. This paper considers the consequence of these changes for new forestry investment in Scotland by examining five models which describe different site types. The investment appraisals show that after April 1988 forestry will no longer be of interest to investors seeking a tax shelter or wishing to invest borrowed capital. Acceptable real returns to capital will be found only on relatively good quality sites. A major reduction in the rate of new planting is indicated and a shift away from poorer planting land. The rate and location of new planting will depend critically on farmland prices and the extent to which better-quality land is released for planting under the normal consultation procedures.     

Migration,remittances and smallholder decision-making: Implications for land use and livelihood change in Central America

We model Central American migrant-sending household agricultural practices given labor losses and the concomitant infusion of remittances. Under the new economics of labor migration (NELM) framework, it is hypothesized that smallholder farm households invest remittance income in their land either to increase crop production or to transition to cattle ranching. We test this hypothesis by developing a combination of multivariate logistic, Poisson and beta regression techniques using Latin American Migration Project data to determine how agricultural land use change compared among migrant and non-migrant households in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua. Results indicate that a rise in months spent abroad and remittances returned do not translate into a higher percentage of farm sales, intensification or transition to cattle ranching – counter to NELM. However, farmers are investing remittances to increase row crop and pasture land holdings. These findings suggest remittance investments in quantitative increase rather than qualitative change in land use practices. Given the expansive land demands supporting low intensity smallholder agriculture and cattle, and the land degradation cattle precipitate particularly, the trend does not augur well for the sustainability of rural landscapes increasingly transformed by international remittances. Appropriate policies to champion coupled human-land system sustainability in Central America might usefully consider viable land use alternatives to remittance investments dedicated to crop and pasture expansion.     

"We were all trespassers": George Edward Lemmon, Anglo-American cattle ranching, and the Great Sioux Reservation

With the opening of the Black Hills to white settlement in the mid-1870s, thousands of fortune-seekers made their way into Dakota Territory. George Edward Lemmon, a man later renowned as one of the world's most accomplished cowboys, was among them. During the 1880s his employer, the Sheidley Cattle Company, grazed thousands of cattle in western Dakota Territory, many of them on Sioux Indian land. Indeed, the company owed a great deal of its success to illegal grazing on the Great Sioux Reservation. Opportunists such as Lemmon supported Indian reservations because they could use those lands to make a profit. The interaction between large-scale white ranchers and the Indians of the Great Sioux Reservation provides insight into the development of the range cattle industry in the northern Great Plains and illuminates the motivations that led many ranchers to support, rather than oppose, the reservation system.