Competing risk model for mobile phone service

Since the Korean government implemented the “Number Portability System” in the domestic mobile communications market, mobile communication companies have been striving to hold onto existing customers and at the same time to attract new customers. This paper presents a competing risk model that considers the characteristics of a customer in order to predict the customer's mean residual life under the “Number Portability System.” Competing causes for churning considered are pricing policy, quality of communication, and usefulness of service. It has been observed that the customers who pay more are less sensitive to pricing policy; younger people are less sensitive than older people to the change of the quality of communication; and women are more sensitive than men in terms of usefulness of service. We expect that the result of this study can be used as a guideline for effective management of mobile phone customers under the number portability system.     

Sustained positive consumption in a model of stochastic growth: The role of risk aversion

In a stochastic economy, long run consumption and output may not be bounded away from zero even when productivity is arbitrarily high near zero and uncertainty is arbitrarily small. In the one-sector stochastic optimal growth model with i.i.d. production shocks, we characterize the nature of preferences that lead to this phenomenon for a stochastic Cobb–Douglas technology. For the general version of the model, we outline sufficient conditions under which the economy expands its capital stock near zero and long run consumption is bounded away from zero with certainty. Our conditions highlight the important role played by risk aversion for small consumption levels.     

区域发展模式的成本、风险及选择

今年发生在南方的雪灾凸显中国产业布局成本高、风险大,区域经济发展不平衡。破解难题需要调整经济布局,减少经济发展的显性成本,特别是选择集群发展战略,作为实施主体功能区规划的微观组织基础。     

收入模型在我国商业银行操作风险度量中的应用

随着近年来市场风险量化方法的逐渐成熟及信用风险量化方法的不断发展,国际银行业开始尝试对操作风险进行量化,并取得了一定的进展.文章首先简单介绍操作风险的度量方法,接着分析操作风险度量方法在我国商业银行的选择运用,最后采用收入模型对我国国内两家商业银行进行操作风险度量的实证分析.     

Housing price fluctuations and financial risk transmission: a spatial economic model

Financial risk derived from housing price fluctuations in China garnered much public concern recently. Based on the theoretical analyses of the transmission of financial risk from housing price fluctuations, this paper establishes panel spatial Durbin models to empirically analyse housing price fluctuations and financial risks transmission from a spatial economic perspective. Employing the panel provincial data from 1999–2015, we conduct an analysis on the 30 provinces in China as well as a comparison among the Eastern, Middle and Western regions of China. The results indicate that: (1) The soaring housing prices driven by bank credit, real estate developers’ heavy investment, local governments’ land revenue and individuals and households demands leads to financial risk in various sectors; (2) due to the ‘substitution effect’, the capital agglomeration in metropolis from bank credits, real estate developers, and individuals and households furthers the amassment of financial risks; (3) housing prices have a significant spatial contagion effect throughout the country, and financial risk could directly transmit across provinces through housing price fluctuations; (4) financial risks could indirectly transmit across provinces via the ‘imitative behaviour’ or ‘driving effect’ of different sectors for different regions of China.     

Linking global economic dynamics to a South African-specific credit risk correlation model

In order to address practical questions in credit portfolio management it is necessary to link the cyclical or systematic components of firm credit risk with the firm's own idiosyncratic credit risk as well as the systematic credit risk component of every other exposure in the portfolio. This paper builds on the methodology proposed by Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner [Pesaran, M.H., Schuermann, T., and Weiner, S.M., (2004), Modeling regional interdependencies using a global error correcting macroeconometric model, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 22, 2, 129–169.] and supplemented by Pesaran, Schuermann, Treutler and Weiner [Pesaran, M.H., Schuermann, T., Treutler, B., and Weiner, S.M., (2006), Macroeconomic dynamics and credit risk: a global perspective, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Volume 38, Number 5, August 2006, 1211–1261.] which has made a significant advance in credit risk modelling in that it avoids the use of proprietary balance sheet and distance-to-default data, focusing on credit ratings which are more freely available.In this paper a country-specific macroeconometric risk-driver engine which is compatible with and could feed into the GVAR model and framework of PSW (2004) is constructed, using vector error-correcting (VECM) techniques. This allows conditional loss estimation of a South African-specific credit portfolio but also opens the door for credit portfolio modelling on a global scale, as such a model can easily be linked to the GVAR model. The set of domestic factors is extended beyond those used in PSW (2004) in such a way that the risk-driver model is applicable for both retail and corporate credit risk. As such, the model can be applied to a total bank balance sheet, incorporating the correlation and diversification between both retail and corporate credit exposures.Assuming statistical over-identification restrictions, the results indicate that it is possible to construct a South African component for the GVAR model that can easily be integrated into the global component. From a practical application perspective the framework and model is particularly appealing since it can be used as a theoretically consistent correlation model within a South African-specific credit portfolio management tool.     

收入模型在我国商业银行操作风险度量中的应用

随着近年来市场风险量化方法的逐渐成熟及信用风险量化方法的不断发展，国际银行业开始尝试对操作风险进行量化，并取得了一定的进展。文章首先简单介绍操作风险的度量方法，接着分析操作风险度量方法在我国商业银行的选择运用，最后采用收入模型对我国国内两家商业银行进行操作风险度量的实证分析。     

Optimal risk sharing and borrowing constraints in a continuous-time model with limited commitment

We study a continuous-time version of the optimal risk-sharing problem with one-sided commitment. In the optimal contract, the agent?s consumption is a time-invariant, strictly increasing function of a single state variable: the maximal level of the agent?s income realized to date. We characterize this function in terms of the agent?s outside option value function and the discounted amount of time in which the agent?s income process is expected to reach a new to-date maximum. Under constant relative risk aversion we solve the model in closed-form: optimal consumption of the agent equals a constant fraction of his maximal income realized to date. In the complete-markets implementation of the optimal contract, the Alvarez–Jermann solvency constraints take the form of a simple borrowing constraint familiar from the Bewley–Aiyagari incomplete-markets models.     

The binary policy model

We introduce a model of electoral competition with office-motivated candidates who are exogenously committed to particular positions on some issues, while they choose positions for the remaining issues. A position is majority-efficient if a candidate cannot make a majority of the electorate better off, given his fixed positions. We characterize existence conditions for majority-efficient positions. The candidates' fixed positions in our framework imply that only some voters are “swing voters,” and we analyze how the distribution of swing voters determines whether candidates choose majority-efficient positions. We also analyze plurality and runoff elections with multiple candidates in our framework.     

The Southampton econometric model

Four reasons are offered for presenting a paper on a now defunct model. First it was one of the very few attempts to construct a large-scale econometric model of the UK. Second, is its monetary sector — few models of that vintage had such a sector and, unlike modern models, its monetary sector was strictly Keynesian. Third is the explicit modelling of output and price equations. And fourth is the treatment of disequilibrium. Disequilibrium arises through the incompatibility of plans: total demand, for example, may exceed total supply and profits may be exceptionally high or unsustainably low. The rest of the paper gives a fuller account of the role of these disequilibrium terms in the explanation of price and output changes. Lists of equations and working papers are attached.     

The nonatomic assignment model

Summary We formulate a model with a continuum of individuals to be assigned to a continuum of different positions which is an extension of the finite housing market version due to Shapley and Shubik. We show that optimal solutions to such a model exist and have properties similar to those established for finite models, namely, an equivalence among the following: (i) optimal solutions to the linear programming problem (and its dual) associated with the assignment model; (ii) the core of the associated market game; (iii) the Walrasian equilibria of the associated market economy.     

The Green Solow model

We argue that a key empirical finding in environmental economics—the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)—and the core model of modern macroeconomics—the Solow model—are intimately related. Once we amend the Solow model to incorporate technological progress in abatement, the EKC is a necessary by product of convergence to a sustainable growth path. We explain why current methods for estimating an EKC are likely to fail; provide an alternative empirical method directly tied to our theory; and estimate our model on carbon emissions from 173 countries over the 1960–1998 period.     

The Hahn-Solow macro model

The Hahn-Solow macromodel is characterized by fixed nominal wages, increasing returns on capital and pricesetting under an imperfect competitive environment. It proposes that a fall in unemployment is always accompanied by a rise in real wages. The two authors demonstrate that involuntary unemployment is compatible with equilibrium in the goods- and labormarket but they can hardly explain the macroeconomic records of the recent three decades in the US and in Europe.     

Financial opening, deposit insurance, and risk in a model of banking competition

We study the impact of competition on banks’ risk-taking behavior under different assumptions about deposit insurance and the dissemination of information. While financial opening increases banks’ riskiness, a risk-based deposit insurance or, alternatively, the public disclosure of financial information, are likely to mitigate this effect. Moreover, the limiting cases of uninsured but fully informed depositors, and risk-based full deposit insurance, yield the same equilibrium risk level. Although the welfare consequences of increased competition depend on its impact on risk, financial opening unambiguously improves welfare as we approach the limiting cases.     

小额贷款公司的运作风险浅析

小额贷款公司作为一种融资手段创新,对改善当前的金融环境有着不可替代的作用.通过小额贷款公司的融资服务,不仅能够弥补农村金融的薄弱,弥补大型商业银行对中小企业信贷支持力度的不足,同时为国内充沛的民间资本进入正规金融领域打开了一扇大门.但作为一个新生事物,小额贷款公司还处于探索阶段,法律法规、市场机制等方面还不健全,小额贷款公司运作过程中诸多的运作风险,成为困扰小额贷款公司进一步发展的瓶颈.     

浅析网络化经营的风险管理

目前,网络经营己开始被越来越多的企业采用,各种网络调研、网络广告、网络分销、网络服务等网络经营活动,正日益活跃地介入到企业的生产经营中。本文依据我国企业目前网络化经营的总体现状,分析指出了企业开展网络化经营可能面临的主要风险类型,并对如何防范管理这些风险提出了自己的看法。