Advances in evolution and genetics: Implications for technology strategy

Genetic and evolutionary principles are of great importance to technology strategists, both directly (as in the forecasting of genetic engineering technologies) and as a source of metaphor and perspective on socio-technical change. Recent rapid progress in the molecular sciences have revealed new genetic mechanisms of evolution, and introduced new controversies of interpretation. How do these recent developments affect technology forecasting and our view of technological evolution? This paper provides a quick primer for TFSC readers on several new developments in evolution and genetics, comments upon a number of common misconceptions and pitfalls in evolutionary thinking, and critically describes some controversies and open questions, introducing key readings and sources. It relates genetic and evolutionary knowledge, analogies and metaphors to areas of interest to researchers in technology forecasting and assessment, noting possible future directions. The paper concludes with an overview of the other papers in this special section.     

Implementing a technology strategy in developing countries: The experience of the Indonesian rolling stock industry

Integration of business and technology strategies is an attractive approach for industries in developing countries. However, to be successful, these strategies cannot be implemented according to a company's objectives alone regardless of the involvement of other players. Furthermore, consideration of interrelated technologies should be included if a product resulting from the strategy is expected to perform well and be sustainable. This article attempts to give a broader view of factors to be considered in implementing business technology strategies in developing countries. Supporting evidence is given from the rolling stock industry in Indonesia, which has been implementing a type of business technology strategy.     

The future of the mobile phone business

One of the fastest growing technologies of our times is that of mobile phones. In this article we use the assumption that the diffusion of mobile technology, as measured by the number of active mobile accounts, follows the well known S-curve of natural growth in competition systems. The accuracy of the logistic fit is tested against actual data for the whole world, Europe, China and the GSM system. Using the produced models predictions concerning the future of mobile business are deliberated.According to these models active mobile accounts around the globe are expected to grow from 1.7 billion in 2004 to approximately 2 billion in 2008, reaching a peak penetration of 29.2%. Growth barriers, apart from the age of the potential user, are also low income and extreme poverty. Europe, early adopter of mobile technology and leader in active mobile accounts against all other regions in the world, has apparently reached a peak with almost every European, apart from the very young or very old, using a mobile phone. The mobile market in China is anticipated to exceed 500 million active accounts and may increase even further depending on the economic and social reform that is currently under way in that part of the world. GSM will most likely remain the leading mobile technology in the future as it is today.The growth process for the world, Europe, and the GSM system is almost completed and during this stage instabilities may occur before the potential emergence of a new wave of growth.     

A new definition and framework for the development of a national technology strategy: The case of nanotechnology for Iran

In this research, we use the concepts of “national technology policy” as well as the “firm technology strategy” in defining a new definition for “national technology strategy”. Then, by examining several national technology strategies in a variety of fields in different countries the national nanotechnology strategy for Iran is developed. Furthermore, using capability-effectiveness matrix and SWOT analysis we identify strategies of nanotechnology development in Iran. Finally, considering other countries' strategies and the results of PROMETHEE Method, we prioritize different areas of nanotechnology for Iranian economy, and test for the validity of the extracted strategies.     

Implementing technology roadmap process in the energy services sector: A case study of a government agency

Energy sector has become increasingly sensitive to emerging new technologies as our society is seeking alternative energy sources. Many utility companies and government agencies have started to implement technology planning processes for roadmapping their future technology portfolios. This paper focuses on technology planning in the government energy services sector. Through a case study research method, the paper documents how technology planning and specifically technology roadmaps were implemented at a federal agency tasked with managing power transmission in the Northwest United States. Three application areas are covered: transmission, renewables and energy efficiency. The paper provides details on the Energy Efficiency Roadmaps. Through the review of the case a technology planning methodology based on technology roadmaps is detailed. Key conclusions were reached on how to manage such process implementation in similar organizations. Some of these conclusions can be generalized to those that are implementing technology planning processes for the first time. We concluded that adoption of such methods would require a longer time than anticipated. Organizational changes to adopt the process will likely reduce the time it takes to deliver the required roadmaps. We also found that a typical sequence of events would be Technology Gap Analysis and Identification of Technology Candidates, Evaluation and Prioritization of Technologies, Roadmapping of Technologies and Allocation of Resources to the R&D Programs or to the direct acquisition of the technologies.     

Exploring technology diffusion and classification of business methods: Using the patent citation network

Among the many technology forecasting indicators, patents and patent citations are useful and important indicators. The more frequently a certain patent is cited by subsequent patents, the more the related technology can be said to be diffused, implying that the technology is more widely applied and thus more valuable. This paper analyzes the business methods technology which retrieves patents from the USPTO database. There are two purposes of this paper: 1. establish the indicators for finding basic patents and measure the relationship of these basic patents; 2. classify the basic patents and explain the groups of technology diffusion. Finally, this study identifies the two mainstreams in business method technology: one is focused on marketing technology, and the other one stresses on data security. Both are important for Internet data processes or e-commerce activities.     

The emergence of technology systems: knowledge production and distribution in the case of the Emilian plastics district

The emergence of technology systems is the result of interdependentdynamics of the generation and diffusion of complementary bitsof localised technological knowledge. Technological communicationis the crucial element assessing the collective conditions underwhich technological knowledge is accumulated and diffused. Thecase study of the emerging Emilian technological system in theplastics sector shows that the synchronic and diachronic localisedinteractions among industrial dynamics, institutional R&Defforts and technological interrelatedness are the determinantsof the systematic production, accumulation and distributionof localised technological knowledge, in turn explaining theorigin and development of the technology system itself.     

Factors for winning interface format battles: A review and synthesis of the literature

The literature on selection of interface formats is fragmented and does not provide an overall framework in which all relevant factors are included. Current frameworks are incomplete and focus on a subset of the total set of factors. In this paper we develop a more complete overview of factors based on the available literature. First, we perform an extensive literature study of 127 publications, resulting in 29 factors for format dominance. Second, we group the factors into five categories: characteristics of the format supporter, characteristics of the format, format support strategy, other stakeholders, and market characteristics. Third, we perform a meta-analysis and we specify the direction of each factor on format dominance. This results in a framework that facilitates assessing the chances that an interface format achieves dominance. We demonstrate that this framework is more complete than previous frameworks. The framework can be used by both researchers and practitioners to understand historical and current format battles as well as acceptance of formats without direct competitors.     

Time path in innovation, imitation, and growth: the case of the motorcycle industry in postwar Japan

This study attempts to explore how an industry evolves over time based on a case study of the motorcycle industry in Japan from 1948 to 1964. Using individual firm data, we estimate the determinants of technology improvement and firm growth separately for different development phases, after controlling for the probability of firm survival. We find that the industrys rapid growth in the early phase can be explained by massive entry and the imitation of simple technologies, whereas sustained growth in later phases can be explained by innovations and subsequent imitations, as well as the exit of inefficient firms.JEL Classification: O14, L10, L62, N65 Correspondence to: Tetsushi SonobeWe are grateful to Kotaro Horiuchi, Shunji Tanaka, Katsuaki Nishino, Michael Kevane, Uwe Cantner, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions.     

The suitability of technology forecasting/foresight methods for decision systems and strategy: A Japanese view

This paper evaluates technology forecasting and foresight (TF/F) methods in relation to users' decision systems for science and technology (S&T) strategies. As TF/F is an aid to decisions for attaining S&T goals, we examine the serviceability or suitability and acceptability of the methods and outcomes of TF/F for decision systems and S&T strategies. The focus is on extrapolation and Delphi methods because they are so widely used in technology forecasting (TFC). Based on the complaint analysis of TFC that revealed inaccuracy as the most serious obstacle to its acceptance, this paper especially analyses the meaning of accuracy. Learning from the experiences of TFC, the suitability of technology foresight (TFS) to cognitive structures in users' decisions is discussed. Finally, some lessons from TFC are presented for TFS.     

What matters in technology leakage in small and medium enterprises: the case of Korea

Technology leakage in small and medium enterprises (SMEs) is a critical issue because while the number of main technologies in SMEs is small, these technologies are crucial to their survival. Related factors must be identified to prevent technology leakage from SMEs. In this paper, we use logistic regression to find significant factors in Korean SMEs, focusing on three aspects: characteristics of the technology, prevention strategy, and firm’s R&D characteristics. We use a survey conducted by related national institutions. According to the results of our empirical study, interaction effects among the factors of technology characteristics have highly significant effects on technology leakage. In particular, the interaction effect between the time needed to imitate the technology and the stage of business growth appears to have the highest influence on technology leakage. Based on our results, detailed strategies for preventing technology leakage are inferred in order to help SMEs prioritise their resources.     

The selection of technology for late-starters: A case study of the energy-smart photovoltaic industry

Technology selection, which influences the competitive advantages of an enterprise or a country, is a multi-criteria decision issue. In addition, it is increasingly difficult to identify the right technologies because technologies are increasing in number and complexity. This study proposes a technology selection process integrating the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Delphi method. The former effectively conducts the fuzziness existing in experts' responses and identifies the strength of technology selection criteria and the relationship between the two. The latter provides the main technology alternatives for Taiwan's future photovoltaic industry. Finally, through the two-way linkage between technology selection criteria and main industrial technologies, the technology fields of the photovoltaic industry can be identified. The empirical results indicate that the benefit of a technology is the most important factor among technological selection criteria, and that Taiwan should adopt and develop microcrystalline silicon film multi-junction and amorphous-silicon solar cells as its main industrial technologies. The results may serve to guide industrial technology acquisition and the work of resource allocations on the behalf of government and enterprises.     

经济危机下企业技术创新路径演变模型——基于SECI模型的研究

路径理论和知识理论是技术创新研究不可分割的一个整体。基于SECI模型中显性知识、隐性知识转化的视角,剖析了企业技术创新过程中知识创造和路径演变关系的内在机理,构建了知识视角下企业技术创新路径演变模型。     

改革开放以来中国技术转移政策演变趋势、问题与启示

研究了改革开放以来中国技术转移政策演变过程、趋势与问题, 剖析了改革开放以来中国技术转移发展的4个阶段及特征,阐释了重心下移和市场驱动等政策趋势,指出了放权不够、协同性较差、执行力不够、考核不严等技术转移政策存在的问题。最后,提出加强政策协同、下放权力、市场导向、高位推动完善考核等政策建议。     

Firm selection and industry evolution: the post-entry performance of new firms

A dynamic framework based on the process of firm selection and industry evolution is used to analyse the post-entry performance of new firms. In particular, it is hypothesized that, based on the stylized fact that virtually all new firms start at a very small scale of output, firm growth and survival are shaped by the need to attain an efficient level of output. The post-entry performance of more than 11,000 U.S. manufacturing firms established in 1976 is tracked throughout the subsequent tenyear period. Firm growth is found to be negatively influenced by firm size but positively related to the extent of scale economies, capital intensity, innovative activity, and market growth. By contrast, the likelihood of survival is identified as being positively influenced by firm size, market growth, and capital intensity, but negatively affected by the degree of scale economies in the industry. When viewed through the dynamic framework of firm selection and industry evolution, the empirical results shed considerable light on several paradoxes in the industrial organization literature, such as the continued persistence over time of an asymmetrical firm-size distribution consisting predominantely of suboptimal scale firms, and the failure of capital intensity and scale economies to substantially deter the entry and start-up of new firms.     

How technological innovation affects the structure of an industry: entrepreneurship evolution in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industry since 1980

Challenges faced by the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industry, including reduced R&D productivity and the expiration of drugs that are high in demand, are recently being addressed through technological innovation. Such innovations are highly likely to change the structure and functioning of the industry. Since 2000, biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies have actively made strategic alliance, and technological innovations have changed the source of innovation from R&D to entrepreneurship within the industry. In this study, we identify the evolution of entrepreneurship and discuss the changes caused by technological advancements since 1980 by analysing patterns of exporting and acquiring technology data from Medtrack. Over difference period, biopharmaceutical firms have gained new knowledge and improved technology, and have implemented this newly acquired knowledge and innovation to introduce drugs to the market.     

Roadmapping a disruptive technology: A case study: The emerging microsystems and top-down nanosystems industry

If technological roadmapping is important in the process of rapid technology commercialization, and if a method tailored to roadmapping nascent disruptive technologies does not exist, and if these very same disruptive technologies portend to be the future economic engines for firms, countries, and regions, then there is cause for concern. This article seeks to shed some light on the process in industrial disruptive technology roadmapping by focusing on the fundamental differences between sustaining and disruptive technologies. This article investigates the utility of theoretical and practitioner traditional technology roadmapping tools in an international industrial roadmapping effort focusing on microtechnology and top-down nanotechnology. I then modify the traditional technology roadmapping approaches generating a model for an industrial worldwide disruptive technology roadmapping process. I utilize the International Industrial Microsystems and Top-Down Nanosystems Roadmap (IIMTDNR) effort, which included nearly 400 people, from nearly as many firms, from over five continents and was developed over a 5-year period. The IIMTDNR process is used to provide the basis for a model for a commercial disruptive technology roadmapping process.     

Characteristics of technology transfer in business ventures: the case of Daejeon, Korea

This article explores the characteristics of venture business and entrepreneurs in Korea to (1) identify technology transfer activities, (2) analyze the differences between technology transfer in linear and nonlinear venture businesses, and (3) guide more effective venture business policy and strategy. This empirical assessment reveals that entrepreneurs have insightful evaluations about their resources and capacities as well as expectations with regard to functions and features of science parks and incubators. Respondents from “linear model”-based start-ups tend to be older and have higher education, employ more basic research and development (R&D) and have more R&D-oriented careers, and have more varied work experience than “nonlinear”-based start-ups. The functions and features of science parks and incubators were generally not considered a critical influence on start-ups nor on the growth of venture businesses. Accordingly, alternative venture-nurturing strategies are discussed as being key to accelerate venture businesses growth.     

关键共性技术合作网络演化机制研究——以医药产业为例

构建高效的技术合作网络是突破关键共性技术研发难题的关键,揭示技术合作网络演化机制对网络发展具有重要意义。以社会网络理论与随机统计理论为基础,将技术合作网络演化驱动因素归纳为属性驱动、同质驱动及结构驱动,基于医药产业关键共性技术合作专利数据构建技术合作网络,分析技术合作网络演化特征,同时采用指数随机图模型探究网络演化驱动机制。结果显示：网络演化过程中,仅有少数研发主体展开广泛而频繁的合作;研发主体研发能力与结构洞属性对技术合作网络演化无显著作用,但度中心性对网络演化的促进作用显著;网络演化具有显著的地理与组织同质效应;网络更倾向于形成星型结构与闭合三角结构,不倾向于形成开放三角结构。     

移动电话制造业:外商直接投资溢出效应案例研究

外商直接投资的进入使得东道国的本土企业获取的劳动效率提高,这就是业内所称的溢出效应。研究表明,国家开放本身并不能保证外商直接投资能够在本国创造溢出效应,FDI的行业内溢出效应也不是自动产生的,东道国的政府政策以及不同的行业状况和特点都对溢出效应产生影响。我国的移动电话制造业是近十年来新兴的、发展迅猛的,同时又是一个典型的利用外资发展起来的行业,本文作者针对我国移动电话制造业进行案例研究以此进一步探讨FDI溢出效应产生的机制。此文由国家自然科学基金支持,基金批准号为:70473045。