Reconstruction of the Spanish money supply, 1492–1810

How did the Spanish money supply evolve in the aftermath of the discovery of large amounts of precious metals in Spanish America? We synthesize the available data on the mining of precious metals and their international flow to estimate the money supply for Spain from 1492 to 1810. Our estimate suggests that the Spanish money supply increased more than ten-fold. Viewed through the equation of exchange this money supply increase can account for most of the price level rise in early modern Spain.     

The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Rise of the Dollar as an International Currency, 1914–1939

This paper provides new evidence on the rise of the dollar as an international currency, focusing on its role in the conduct of trade and the provision of trade credit. We show that the shift to the dollar occurred much earlier than conventionally supposed: during and immediately after World War I. Not just market forces but also policy support—the Fed in its role as market maker—was important for the dollar’s overtaking of sterling as the leading international currency. On balance, this experience challenges the popular notion of international currency status as being determined mainly by market size. It suggests that the popular image of strongly increasing returns and pervasive network externalities leaving room for only one monetary technology is misleading.     

Property Rights,Marriage, and Fertility in the Italian Alps, 1790–1820

Does property rights allocation on the commons affect marriage strategies and fertility? We focus on the role played by patrilineal vs. egalitarian inheritance systems. Our approach combines a theoretical model and an empirical study that exploits an institutional shock at the turn of the 19th century, which made inheritance on the common property-resources egalitarian for everyone. We report that – as predicted by the model – communities with patrilineal inheritance rights on the commons exhibit higher levels of endogamy and consanguinity and lower fertility than those with egalitarian inheritance rights.     

Colonial companies and the cost of introducing Indian immigrants into Fiji, 1884–1916

Using Fiji as a case study, I conduct the first cost accounting of government-run Indian indentureship in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. I analyse multiple official data sources and estimate the total cost of bringing Indians to Fiji was £926,851, roughly a fifth of Fiji's reported expenditure. Businesses funded 92.6% of this cost. However, business payments to the government do not appear in official Blue Books. Incorporating business payments shows that both official revenue and expenditure were underestimated by 15%. My results show how one part of colonialism was funded and how colonial fiscal capacity may be underestimated more broadly.     

Activity of the Russian monetary and banking sector in conditions of adverse external factors of 2014–2015 affecting the economy

This article represents a discussion on how the adverse external factors of 2014–2015 affected the banking system and financial conditions of the real economy sector. The analysis is based on the data of bank accounting statements. The work also uses statistical data on the turnover and concentration obtained by aggregating the accounting statements available online on the Russian Central Bank’s official website.     

Fiscal,financial and monetary foundations for the formation of nation states in the west compared to imperial states in the east c.1415–c.1839

This speech introduces O’Brien’s research approach to the divergence debate and presents the fiscal capacities of the states as the key condition for ushering in modern economic growth in the pre-industrialization West. The concerns of pre-modern European states (1415–1839) were not with economic development, but with external security and internal stability of their kingdoms. Mercantilism prepared European states for capitalist industrialization. Historical evidence supports the hypothesis that effective command and control over sovereign revenues were what gave Britain and other European states the advantage over their oriental counterparts in providing public goods of external security and internal stability, which made the divergence in economic development inevitable.     

Trade creation,trade diversion,and the general equilibrium effects of regional trade agreements: a study of the European Community–Turkey customs union

This paper presents an industry-level analysis of trade flows in order to estimate the trade effects of Turkey’s customs union with the European Community (EC). The paper is able to distinguish between trade creation and trade diversion by employing tariff data on each good to measure the impact of not only the tariff level but also the difference between tariffs applied to imports from Europe and the most-favored nation tariffs applied to imports from other non-preferential trading partners. The paper estimates the general equilibrium effects of the customs union in addition to the effects of eliminating tariffs on the EC’s exports to Turkey. It concludes that the customs union has generated more than twice as much trade creation as trade diversion but that the overall impact of the customs union has been relatively small.     

Stadium financing,usage and the impact of institutional change on consumer demand: The case of VFL Park, 1970–1986

Ownership, financing, and usage of stadiums are key issues that affect the commercial operations of sports leagues. Stadiums that are owned by leagues may generate deadweight losses if they are not used to full capacity. We (1) model demand to measure the impact of the Victorian Football League building a privately-funded stadium (VFL Park); (2) then use counterfactual scenarios to estimate social saving from different venues and playing days, and determine whether further welfare gains would have been possible. VFL Park provided greater control over revenue, but further institutional change was needed to fully exploit potential commercial gains from the stadium.     

The relationship between the monetary regime and output volatility: a multivariate GARCH-M model of the Japanese experience, 1919–1996

In this paper we tried to determine whether or not adherence to a floating exchange rate regime helped the Japanese economy to absorb shocks which originated from domestic and foreign sources based on the Japanese experience from the interwar to the post Bretton Woods floating exchange rate period. Using a multivariate GARCH-M model, we analyzed the relation of exchange rate volatility and output volatility directly. The results imply that the floating exchange rate regime has helped the Japanese economy to insulate itself from foreign shocks. The estimated coefficient which represents the response to the foreign shocks decreases and the decrease is significant in the floating exchange rate regime.     

On the difference between the keynesian,knightian and the ‘classical’ analysis of uncertainty and the development of a more general monetary theory

Summary In this article it is shown that Keynes concept of uncertainty is not identical with that of Knight, as is often argued. The identification of Keynesian with Knightian uncertainty has contributed to the neglect of an aspect of Keynesian uncertainty that is important in understanding the functioning of a monetary economy. Therefore, it is concluded that monetary theory can benefit from the development of an analytical apparatus that incorporates all aspects of Keynesian uncertainty.I am indebted to Mr. J. de Haan, Professor J.A. Kregel, Professor S.K. Kuipers, Professor J. Pen, Dr. J. Snippe and Mr. A. van Witteloostuijn for their comments on an earlier version of this paper. It goes without saying that they cannot be blamed for any remaining errors.     

Institutions for the taking: property rights and the settlement of the Cape Colony, 1652–1750

We examine the formation of property rights in land during the early settlement by the Dutch of the Cape Colony at the southern tip of Africa. After its founding in 1652 as a provisioning outpost for ships of the Dutch East India Company (VOC), the colonial government promoted settlement initially by granting land with well-specified and enforced property rights in restricted zones near Cape Town. By 1714 it transitioned to accommodate rapidly expanding settlement by creating a weaker form of property rights, the loan farm, which was imprecisely defined and had limited government enforcement. We develop a profit-maximizing monopsony model to explain the VOC's choice to transition from the better-specified land grant to the less well-specified loan farm. We conclude that the decline in the population size and ability of the Khoikhoi, the Cape's original inhabitants, to organize effective resistance to the Dutch invasion was critical to the transition, as it lowered the costs of private enforcement of settlers’ territorial claims. The choice of property rights thus enabled and encouraged the rapid taking by European settlers of the western Cape of Africa for the expansion of the Dutch colony's pastoral economy.     

“Love for variety,” outside option and extensive margin of demand

The paper models a uniform-price Bertrand-price-competition in a differentiated product oligopoly market, where the buyers' preference shows “love for variety.” The buyers differ from each other in their valuation of the differentiated product with a common outside option available to all. The model endogenously determines both the extensive and intensive margin of demand and the equilibrium number of varieties in the differentiated product market. It shows that in such a framework complementarity exists at the extensive margin of demand even in the presence of demand substitutability between the varieties. The results apply to the competition between brick and mortar shops and malls.     

Testing for horizontal and vertical foreign investment spillovers in China, 1998–2007

As with many developing countries, the Chinese government hopes that knowledge brought by multinationals will spill over to domestic industries and increase their productivity. In this paper, we show that foreign investment originating outside of Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan has positive effects on individual firm level productivity, while foreign investment from HKMT firms does not. We also test for both horizontal (within the same industry) and vertical (upstream or downstream) linkages from foreign investment. Using a manufacturing firm-level panel for 1998 through 2007, we find zero or weak positive horizontal externalities. However, our results show that foreign direct investment (FDI) has generated positive productivity spillovers to domestic firms via backward linkages (the contacts between foreign affiliates and their local suppliers in downstream sectors) as well as forward linkages (between foreign suppliers and their local buyers in the upstream sectors).     

An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility for China, 1952–2000

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952–2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988 Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12: 231–254. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Johansen & Juselius (1990 Johansen, S and Juselius, K. 1990. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration – with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52: 169–210. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10–12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development – consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis – played a key role in China's fertility transition.     

The bank of France and the sterilization of gold, 1926–1932

The malfunctioning of the interwar gold standard is frequently ascribed to sterilization of gold flows by central banks, particularly the Bank of France. This paper analyzes the actions of the Bank of France and the issue of sterilization. New estimates of the impact of policy on the Bank of France's gold reserves indicate that, of the policies which ostensibly influenced gold flows, only the absence of expansionary open market operations, which were precluded by statute, significantly affected French reserves. Those statutes and the sentiment which led to their adoption are in turn ascribed to France's experience with inflation earlier in the decade. Thus, the gold standard's collapse in the 1930s is linked to the circumstances under which it was reconstructed in the 1920s.