The modern foundations of Marx's monetary economics

The first chapters of Capital are still often ‘tlerated’, Mirowski (1986: 222) reminds us, as a ‘regrettable metaphysical residuum of [Max's] Hegelian [past]’. Such ‘tolerance’ has unfortunate consequences, howeve, not the least of which is Marx's reputation for ‘theoretical metallism’, simple and derivative. This paper builds on the recent efforts of de Brunhoff (1981), Lavoie (1983) and others to deconstruct, with support from Grundrisse and related texts, the important thrid chapter of Capital, Marx's account of the universal equivalent's four functions. As it is identified here, the chapter's core includes ‘pody-Keynesian’ elements– a reversal of the Ricardian view of the quantity equation, an effective demand principle in which capitalists’ dcisions about the recommitment of hoards assume a prominent role, and the deermination of interest rates, in the short term, on the basis of liquidity preference-– but does not include, in the conventional sense, a commodity theory of money.     

Jules Dupuit: A sesquicentennial tribute to the founder of benefit-cost analysis

Abstract

This article examines Slutsky's 1927 paper ‘The Summation of Random Causes as the Source of Cyclic Processes'. It provides an in-depth analysis of both the content and the reception of Slutsky's groundbreaking contribution by distinguishing between a ‘real' and a ‘statistical' interpretation of Slutsky's two related hypotheses, and also discusses the context of composition of the paper in the Moscow Conjuncture Institute. It then places the 1927 paper in the context of Slutsky's other work in economics and statistics, and highlights some lines of influence that have emanated from it. Various latent ambiguities in Slutsky's ideas are considered.     

The characteristics of a monetary economy: a Keynes-Schumpeter approach

Mainstream monetary theory considers money only as an instrumentmeant to facilitate trading without having any effect on incomeor on the evolution of the economic system. The aim of thispaper is to elaborate a monetary theory capable of supportingthe thesis of money non-neutrality based on the arguments developedby Keynes and Schumpeter. The synthesis of the theories of thesetwo great economists will be formulated starting from the twopoints which are common in the views of Keynes and Schumpeter.First, in contrast with mainstream theory, Keynes and Schumpeterstate that the diffusion of a fiat money induces a radical modificationinto the way in which the economic system works. Second, whenKeynes and Schumpeter describe the reasons why money and financialaggregates are not neutral, they highlight the fundamental roleof the credit market and of banks; in contrast with the mainstreamtheory, they do not consider the credit market as the mirrorimage of the goods market.     

The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy responses to twin crises

We study how effective fiscal and monetary policy responses are during a twin crisis. Using the dataset provided by Laeven and Valencia (2008 Laeven, L and Valencia, F. (2008) Systemic banking crises: a new database. IMF Working Paper No. 08/224 [Google Scholar]), we identify 57 episodes of twin crises. Following the methods proposed in Baldacci et al. (2009 Baldacci, E. 2009. Gupta, S. and Mulas-Granados, C., How effective is fiscal policy response in systemic banking crises?, IMF Working Paper No. 09/160 [Google Scholar]) and Hutchison et al. (2010 Hutchison, M. 2010. Noy, I. and Wang, L., Fiscal and monetary policies and the cost of sudden stops, Journal of International Money and Finance, 29, 973–87 [Google Scholar]), we construct the variables measuring the duration and output cost of a twin crisis. We find that fiscal policy does not seem to be associated with the shortening of a twin crisis. Regarding monetary policy, we find that monetary tightening is associated with the lengthening of a twin crisis duration, consistent with the result in Hutchison et al. (2010 Hutchison, M. 2010. Noy, I. and Wang, L., Fiscal and monetary policies and the cost of sudden stops, Journal of International Money and Finance, 29, 973–87 [Google Scholar]) dealing with a sudden stop crisis. In addition, our results show that while a mild monetary expansion is effective in reducing a twin crisis duration, over-expansionary monetary policy loses its effectiveness.     

The Fable of the Allegory: The Wizard of Oz in Economics: Comment

Although recent research strongly suggests that L. Frank Baum did not write The Wonderful Wizard of Oz as a monetary or political allegory, the Populist-parable interpretation of his book remains a tremendous teaching tool in economics classes. The author offers some background on the rise and fall of the Populist interpretation, in recognition of students' natural curiosity about Baum's intentions. He also offers a classroom-ready version of the parable that synthesizes several different versions of that interpretation.     

Don Patinkin and the origins of postwar monetary orthodoxy

Don Patinkin's Money, Interest, and Prices (1956) set the ground rules of postwar monetary discourse, for better or worse. A close look at the intellectual origins of the book in Patinkin's own life shows it to emerge equally from the Old Chicago School of Simons/Mints/Knight and the Cowles Commission of Lange/Marschak/Haavelmo. Patinkin's conception of money as essentially an outside asset is argued to emerge from the historical context of war finance, and is contrasted with the Gurley-Shaw conception of money as a form of inside credit.     

The economics of online dating: A course in economic modeling

The author discusses the development of a unique course, The Economics of Online Dating. The course is an upper-level undergraduate course that combines intensive discussion, peer review, and economic theory to teach modeling skills to undergraduates. The course uses the framework of “online dating,” interpreted broadly, as a point of entry, via Paul Oyer's popular economics book Everything I Ever Needed to Know about Economics I Learned from Online Dating. The author then explores an approach to teaching students how to not just solve models, but to create economic models from abstract ideas. This approach to teaching modeling is supported by Albert Bandura's work on self-efficacy as a bedrock pedagogical principle.     

货币危机与银行危机共生因子实证分析——国别比较的视角

共生危机的事实表明,货币危机与银行危机共生的现象在不同类型的国家均可能出现,而非某一类国家所特有的现象.基于对共生性货币银行危机触发机制国别差异的考察,文章在对1980～2006年间60个国家共生危机发生情况识别的基础上,分别构建了工业化国家和发展中国家共生危机生成的逐步Logistic回归模型.研究表明,工业化国家的共生危机主要是经济中各类矛盾累积的结果,发展中国家则主要源于本国制度缺陷,而采用滞后一期的变量来解释工业化国家共生危机时,效果不显著.     

Confident expectations, rational expectations and the optimal conduct of monetary policy

Under what conditions central banks can afford to deviate from announced targets without losing their reputation is analyzed. For this, the public must have something like ‘confident expectations' vis-a-vis monetary policy and central banks have to behave accordingly. The paper shows that it can be rational for the public and welfare-increasing for the society to retain ‘confident expectations' instead of switching to rational expectations, when central banks have gained long-run reputation. At the end of the paper, alternative optimal money supply rules are compared in a dynamic optimization framework. © 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.     

The information content of the divisia monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation in the euro area

The paper investigates the performance of a set of monetary indicators, based on the Divisia money constructed for the euro area, on forecasting euro area inflation. The paper first briefly discusses on the relative information contents of the Divisia aggregates and the simple sum aggregates. The forecasting performance of the former is then examined by means of simulated out-of-sample forecasting. In addition to examining the information contents of the Divisia aggregate constructed for M3 money, the study also examines the performance of the Divisia M1 money to gain evidence on the relative performance between the broad and narrow Divisia monetary aggregates. According to the results, only some of the monetary indicators considered can significantly improve the univariate inflation forecasts. The Divisia M3 money based monetary indicators turned out to perform better than their Divisia M1 based counterparts. The result contradicts some previous evidence on the optimal level on monetary aggregation in the context of broad versus narrow money.      

The economics of information: An exposition

The study of information as a choice variable has been given much more weight by disciplines other than economics. This paper tries to lay out the essential economic characteristics of information as an economic commodity. It discusses the reasons why usual market analysis fails and some of the problems that information creates for industrial structure. It is the treatment of information as a variable and its implications for economic behavior that needs further analysis. This is done by giving a formal statement of the role of information in economic decisions based on the use of information and applying it to specific forms of payoff and cost functions. That in many cases information is about rates leads to the conclusion that the value of new technical information is related to the scale of operation. Once information has been obtained its transmission is easy. Therefore it is difficult to make information into property and the incentives to create it will be lacking. In general the analysis shows that the special properties of information as an economic good have strong implications for the very role and meaning of the firm.I want to acknowledge the support of a grant from the Sloan Foundation     

The role of banks in the Czech monetary policy transmission mechanism

With this work, I aim to enrich the knowledge about the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic with empirical evidence on the impact of monetary policy on bank lending. Using a panel of quarterly time series for Czech commercial banks for the period 1996–2001, I study the overall effect of monetary policy changes on the growth rate of loans and the characteristics of the supply of loans. The characterization of the credit market's supply side allows us to make inferences on the operativeness of the credit channel (the bank lending channel and the broad credit channel) of the monetary transmission mechanism. I find that changes in monetary policy alter the growth rate of loans, with considerably stronger magnitude in the period 1999–2001 than in the period 1996–1998. From the analysis intended to capture the characteristics of the supply of loans, I conclude that the lending channel was operative in the period 1996–1998: I find cross‐sectional differences in the lending reactions to monetary policy shocks due to the degree of capitalization and to liquidity. For the subsequent period 1999–2001, the results also show distributional effects of monetary policy due to bank size and its bank's proportion of classified loans. In the context of steadily decreasing interest rates, this can bolster the supposition of financial frictions between borrowers and lenders and hence, that of an operative broad credit channel.     

The economics of korean unification

We simulate the impact of a customs union and an exchange rate unification of North and South Korea. Factor mobility and technological change are of critical importance. If factor markets do not integrate, the macroeconomic impact on South Korea of economic integration is relatively small, while the effects on North Korea are large. With factor market integration, there is a significant impact on the South Korean income and wealth distribution. If integration is accompanied by external capital inflows, there is a significnt appreciation of the real exchange rate with deleterious implications for the South Korean traded-goods sector.     

The ancient art of economics

Abstract

This article reviews ancient texts dedicated to the art of economics, narrating how the master was to manage his wife, slaves and things. The discourse on the economy of things focuses on defining the proper limits of wealth. The economy of the slaves included multiple technologies of classification, management and supervision that were to guide the master and the matron in their ‘use’ of slaves. The wife was a freeborn member of the polis who was doomed to spend her entire life in the economy as a governed subject who partakes in government only within the confines of the oikos.     

Predicting Banking Crises with Artificial Neural Networks: The Role of Nonlinearity and Heterogeneity

Studies of the early warning systems (EWSs) for banking crises usually rely on linear classifiers, estimated with international datasets. I construct an EWS based on an artificial neural network (ANN) model, and I also account for regional heterogeneity in order to improve the generalization ability of EWS models. All of the banking crises in my test set are then predictable at a 24‐month horizon, using information from earlier crises. For some countries, estimation with a regional dataset significantly improves the predictions. The ANN outperforms the usual logit regression, assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve.     

The lower bound and the causes of monetary policy inertia: evidence from Sweden

In 2009, in the midst of a global recession, Sweden’s Riksbank approached a lower bound on nominal interest rates. This encounter with the lower bound provides a natural experiment for investigating the causes of monetary policy inertia. To exploit this experiment, we estimate Taylor rules with Tobit specifications that permit both interest rate smoothing and persistent shocks (serial correlation) as explanations for inertia. The interest rate smoothing hypothesis leads to a specification in which lagged actual values of the dependent variable appear on the right-hand side of the Taylor rule, while the persistent shocks hypothesis leads to a specification in which lagged values of an unobserved latent dependent variable appear on the right-hand side of the Taylor rule. The divergence of actual and latent dependent variables that occurs at the lower bound provides leverage in distinguishing the two hypotheses. For a conventional Taylor rule, we find evidence of both sources of inertia. For a modified Taylor rule that includes a measure of financial stress, our evidence suggests that interest rate smoothing is the principal source of monetary policy inertia.     

关于货币危机后经济衰退的经验分析

文章以1990年以来的近200次货币危机为样本,对货币危机后的经济衰退进行了经验分析.研究发现,危机前的经常账户状况、外债余额占GDP比例、国际流动性指标等经济变量以及危机后的汇率制度都不会显著影响到危机后的经济衰退.另外,危机后的经济衰退与危机国政府在危机中是否抛售外汇储备、是否采取汇率贬值都没有明显关系.但是经济分析的结果表明,危机前的失业率和汇率制度以及危机中是否提高利率等因素对危机后的经济衰退有显著作用.     

At the origin of post-war mainstream of economics: On pareto’s influence on economic theory

Allais (1968) maintained that Pareto’s influence on the development of economics was felt only after considerable delay and was confined to Italy and France. This paper provides a reconstruction of the intellectual dissemination of Pareto’s thought through Europe and the United States in the period 1900–1940, showing that it was influential in the period from c.1900 to the mid-1920s and that in the 1930s it was highly important in the foundation of mainstream post-war economic theory, although in a more elusive way than before.(JEL:B13, B16, B21, B23, B31)     

The fault line of axiomatization: Walras' linkage of physics with economics

Abstract

Economists have often aligned the field of economics with physics; in the process seeking to enhance the rigor of economics by mathematizing it. In the late nineteenth century there was no more ardent champion of this view of what economics should become than Leon Walras. His own writings, though, betray a tension between comprehending this mathematization as proceeding in parallel with physics or through a metaphorical analogy with physics. The limitations in Walras' ability to axiomatize economics reveal a flawed effort to establish the foundations of economics by analogy; this difficulty has persisted through the twentieth century.