中国转型期的信贷波动与经济波动

本文基于1981-2002年的季度数据,考察了在经济转轨的不同阶段我国信贷波动的特征,并通过时差相关分析和Granger因果关系检验,分析了信贷波动与经济周期波动的相互关系.结果表明,总体上信贷波动与经济周期波动基本同步,信贷扩张和收缩是产生经济周期波动的显著影响因素,但这种影响从20世纪90年代中期开始有所下降,同时,信贷波动的内生性开始显现.     

USA,Japan and the Euro Area: Comparing Business‐Cycle Features

There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the USA, Japan and the Euro area. Using Markov‐switching techniques, we identify and compare specifically their major business‐cycle features and examine the case for a common business cycle, asymmetries in the national cycles and, using a number of algorithms, date business‐cycle turning points. Despite a high degree of trade and financial linkages, the cyclical features of USA, Japan and the Euro area appear quite distinct. Documenting and comparing such international business‐cycle features can, for example, aid the development of business‐cycle models and inform policy making.     

Nonlinearities and the Business Cycle in Spanish Imports: A Smooth Transition Regression Approach

Traditional specifications about imports have their foundations on the symmetry of the cycle. However, the wide debate about the asymmetric character of the cycle has aroused much interest in nonlinear dynamics due to the cyclical state of the economy. Economic theory maintains a linear long-run relationship linking imports, GDP and relative prices. This paper analyzes whether short-run deviations from this equilibrium display any kind of nonlinear behavior related to the state of the cycle. Nonlinearities will be captured by an error correction smooth transition regression (STR). Empirical evidence, focused on Spanish imports of goods, supports that short-run deviations of this variable from its linear equilibrium state display a nonlinear behavior. As it is demonstrated, this evolution is caused by the cyclical state of the economy. A previous version of this article has been presented at the 65th International Atlantic Economic Conference (Warsaw, Poland, April 9–12, 2008). The authors would like to thank the conference participants and an anonymous referee for their comments.     

Forecasting nonlinear economic time series: A simple test to accompany the nearest neighbor approach

This paper is based on a recent nonparametric forecasting approach by Sugihara, Grenfell and May (1990) to improve the short term prediction of nonlinear chaotic processes. The idea underlying their forecasting algorithm is as follows: For a nonlinear low-dimensional process, a state space reconstruction of the observed time series exhibits spatial correlation, which can be exploited to improveshort term forecasts by means of locally linear approximations. Still, the important question of evaluating the forecast perfomance is very much an open one, if the researcher is confronted with data that are additionally disturbed by stochastic noise. To account for this problem, a simple nonparametric test to accompany the algorithm is suggested here. To demonstrate its practical use, the methodology is applied to observed price series from commodity markets. It can be shown that the short term predictability of the best fitting linear model can be improved upon significantly by this method.     

收益法及其在企业价值评估中的相关问题研究

收益法有关的数量模型在理财、金融投资等领域的理论与实践都已被认为是一种既比较科学又具有较强的可操作性的计量模型。但是,在评估理论与实践中,它仍有不少问题需要进一步探讨。本文就收益法的产生、发展及其计量基本模型,收益法与现金流折现法的关系,收益法在企业价值评估中存在的有关问题等进行了探讨。本文在参考有关资本价值模型思路相关文献的基础上,以企业价值分别是由投资和取得收益所构成的基本假设下推导出一种新的计量表达式,试图弥补之前收益法的计量表达式对收益期有限的评估不能计算其期末资产余值的不足。     

中美两国经济周期协动性分析

美国是世界第一大经济体也是中国的第一大贸易国,其国内的经济波动对中国经济的发展有着重要的影响。通过HP滤波法并使用1978—2009年度数据以及2008—2010年季度数据对中美两国经济周期波动的协动性研究后发现,中美经济周期协动程度随周期变动且呈现出明显的增强趋势,中国经济增长潜力高于美国且经济波动幅度逐渐减小。为此,应加强对美国经济周期波动的预测与中国货币政策制定、施行时机的把握,从而做到提前反周期操作。     

中国内地与香港经济周期的区制状态及协同性分析

笔者运用Markov区制转移模型,对中国内地与香港经济周期的区制状态以及两地经济周期的协同性进行了检验.结果显示:一方面,中国内地与香港经济周期均存在显著的三区制性质,即经济周期可划分为"低速"、"适速"和"高速"增长区制;另一方面,中国内地与香港经济周期的协同性水平偏低,并且存在依赖于区制状态的"门限性质",即在不同的经济周期区制内呈现出不同的协同性水平.     

我国企业集团的演进及组建模式研究

我国在20世纪80年代以前没有企业集团这种组织形式,企业集团的出现是我国经济和工业改革的结果。至今,企业集团这种组织形式在我国不过20多年的历史。我国企业集团的发展历程可分为三个阶段：改革前的企业组织、企业集团的产生阶段、企业集团的发展阶段。根据政府和企业在集团组建过程中的作用,我国企业集团组建大致有三种方式：政府主导型、政府-企业联合改建型、企业主导型。     

企业多元化业务的选择和评估模型及其应用实例

本文分析了影响企业多元化的因素,建立了企业多元化业务选择和评估模型,探讨了模型在现实操作中的应用,给出了利用该模型进行业务选择和评估的实例。     

A Simple Model to Teach Business Cycle Macroeconomics for Emerging Market and Developing Economies

The canonical neoclassical model is insufficient to understand business cycle fluctuations in emerging market and developing economies. The author reformulates the model proposed by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007 Ahumada, I., and F. Butler. 2009. La enseñanza de la economía en México. Working Paper 672. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Google Scholar]) in a simple setting that can be used to teach business cycle macroeconomics for emerging market and developing economies at the undergraduate level. The simplified model is employed for qualitatively explaining facts such as the highly countercyclicality of the trade balance and the higher volatility of output and consumption compared with those observed in advanced countries.     

我国国有商业银行中间业务收费问题的理论与实证研究

本文从我国商业银行与客户间存在严重的信息不对称导致客户降低消费意愿,及国有商业银行通过将有较大定价自由的中间业务产品与没有定价权的存贷款产品做成打包产品以获得事实上的产品定价权的方式实现其规模偏好两方面,分析我国国有商业银行中间业务产品收费的重要原因.数据包络分析、参数估计检验及产品收入与价格比较得出的经验证据支持本文的论述.为此,政府监管部门应当发挥信息调控的作用和推动商业银行公司治理机制的完善.商业银行应尽快建立会计核算体系,推行全成本管理.     

A new methodology for the logistic analysis of evolutionary S-shaped processes: Application to historical time series and forecasting

A new multi-logistic methodology to analyze long range time series of evolutionary S-shaped processes is presented. It conceptually innovates over the traditional logistic approach. The ansatz includes computing the residuals to an optimized multi-logistic trend curve least squares fitted to the time-series data. The elements of the residuals series are checked for autocorrelations and once detected the residuals series is further analyzed to search for eventual presence of underlying periodic structures using a truncated Fourier sine series. The method foundations ensures both a universal applicability and a capacity to disclose the existence of active clocks that can be possibly traced to the driving motors of the evolutionary character of the time series, due to the responsiveness of corresponding process to the development of economic cycles. On associating these two views, it is found that the methodology has a strong potential to improve the quality of short-term forecasts. These findings have been put to test through applications of the methodology to studying the time evolution of two commodities of strong economic and social importance (corn and steel) and good results were consistently obtained for both the analytical and forecasting aspects.