财务危机发生概率的Logit模型置信区间

介绍了利用Logit模型度量单个公司发生财务危机概率的方法,提出了可以控制Logit模型定义的点估计的置信区间。通过选择财务会计变量的独立向量X,譬如流动比率和资产负责率等确定置信区间,以了解预测公司发生财务危机概率的统计量,得出了在财务危机发生前1至3年模型的预测结果。     

Market Power,Efficiency and the Dispersion of Systematic Risk

A number of studies have used the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to integrate product market and financial theories of the firm. We reexamine the relationship between product market structure and systematic risk at the firm and industry level. We show that theory yields no testable implications at the firm level. We show, however, that there is a relationship between the intraindustry dispersion of systematic risk and industry concentration which depends on the causes and consequences of concentration. Estimates of the relationship between the intraindustry variance of and concentration for a 1987 cross-section of U.S. industries suggest that concentration allows larger firms to exercise market power.     

REIT Capital Structure Choices: Preparation Matters

Sun, Titman and Twite find that capital structure risks, namely, high leverage and a high share of short‐term debt, reduced the cumulative total return of U.S. REITs in the 2007–2009 financial crisis. We find that mitigating capital structure risks ahead of the crisis by reducing leverage and extending debt maturity in 2006 was associated with a significantly higher cumulative total return 2007–2009, after controlling for the levels of those variables at the start of the financial crisis. We further identify two systematic cross‐sectional differences between those REITs that reduced capital structure risks prior to the financial crisis and those that did not: the exposure to capital structure risks and the strength of corporate governance. On balance, our findings are consistent with the interpretation of risk‐reducing adjustments to capital structure ahead of the crisis as a component of managerial skill and discipline with significant implications for firm value during the crisis.     

我国上市公司的会计欺诈问题研究

随着财务报告结构愈发复杂、商业竞争愈发激烈,上市公司会计欺诈的问题愈发严重。本文结合会计与审计相关理论,以我国进行会计欺诈的上市公司为研究对象,全面系统地分析了我国上市公司会计欺诈的问题,提出了解决上市公司会计欺诈的对策建议。     

我国高技术产业发展、金融结构优化与产业升级——基于最优金融结构理论的实证分析

最优金融结构理论认为,处于技术世界前沿的高技术产业的发展将带动金融结构向金融市场化方向发展。本文针对我国金融结构和产业发展的现状,建立了包括金融与产业因素两变量的计量经济学模型,运用单整、协整与格兰杰方法进行检验并对模型进行估计,发现我国高技术产业的发展并没有带动直接金融的发展,而是促进了银行信贷的扩张,强化了以间接金融作为主导的金融结构;同时,高技术产的发展没能发挥促进我国整个产业结构升级的作用。进一步从银行“搭便车”行为、我国高科技产业低风险特性以及我国主要资本市场上市门槛过高三方面解释了我国高科技产业与金融结构的关系。目前,我国经济正向服务业为主导的产业结构方向转变,制造业也将更加科技化、智能化,面对这些新情况,提出了“十三五”期间促进高科技产业和金融市场共同发展的五条政策建议。     

The risk‐return paradox for strategic management: disentangling true and spurious effects

The concept of risk is central to strategy research and practice. Yet, the expected positive association between risk and return, familiar from financial markets, is elusive. Measuring risk as the variance of a series of accounting‐based returns, Bowman obtained the puzzling result of a negative association between risk and mean return. This finding, known as the Bowman paradox, has spawned a remarkable number of publications, and various explanations have been suggested. The present study contributes to this literature by showing that skewness of individual firm' return distributions has a considerable spurious effect on the empirically estimated mean‐variance relationship. I devise a method to disentangle true and spurious effects, illustrate it using simulations, and apply it to empirical data. It turns out that the size of the spurious effect is such that, on average, it explains the larger part of the observed negative relationship. My results might thus help to reconcile mean‐variance approaches to risk‐return analysis with other, ex‐ante, approaches. In concluding, I show that the analysis of skewness is linked to all three streams of literature devoted to explaining the Bowman paradox. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

International experience in the executive suite: the path to prosperity?

Attention is increasingly focused on the potential individual career and firm‐level benefits of international experience for upper level executives. This research examines the relationships between CEO international experience, CEO tenure, firm internationalization, succession events, and corporate financial performance. Results indicate a significant interactive effect between CEO tenure and outside succession on CEO international experience. In addition to a relationship with CEO international experience, there are two additional interactive effects in the examination of corporate financial performance: (1) CEO international experience and the degree of firm internationalization, and (2) CEO international experience and CEO succession. These interactive effects are evident in accounting and market indicators of corporate financial performance. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Asset diversification,firm risk,and risk-based capital requirements in banking

The implications of diversification by firms for risk has been raised particularly in connection with conglomerate mergers. This issue is of special interest in banking now because of a recently implemented policy — risk-based capital guidelines. This study presents results of an empirical investigation into the relationship between diversification of a bank's financial assets and indicators of the risk of insolvency. Results indicate that financial asset diversification, as well as geographic diversification, are related to lower risk.     

煤炭企业并购财务协同效应思考

财务协同效应是指并购给企业财务方面带来的效益,从税法、会计准则、资本利用等方面,分析了煤炭企业并购所产生的财务协同效应,提出了煤炭企业并购财务协同效应还应从准备工作、财务风险规避、专业团队操作和全方位整合等方面进行完善。     

非财务指标与企业财务业绩相关吗——一项基于中国国有企业的实证研究

非财务指标是否能预测企业财务业绩的增长，综合业绩指标体系是否适合我国企业．是我国理论与实务界普遍关心的问题。本文以76家国有企业为样本，系统分析了非财务指标“客户满意度”与企业财务业绩的相关关系，为我国企业建立综合业绩评价体系找到了实证依据。研究表明，客户满意度高的企业具有更高的盈利能力；从客户满意度提高带来的两方面作用来看．企业更可能是通过提高单位产品的利润率来提高盈利能力．而不是通过增加销售来提高盈利能力。     

会计目标之纠正

会计目标是现行财务会计理论研究之起点，因此对会计目标的调整就是会计研究思路的修正。在归纳会计目标发展的基础上，并通过对目标与功能概念的辨析，认为如今的会计目标实际上是对会计信息功能概念的错位。进而，通过对实现会计信息功能的分析。提出了切合实际的会计目标——反映主体真实的财务状况．并认为现行会计理论实际上是建立在该目标基础上的。     

The substitution effects of short-term debt for long-term debt on the expected returns of common stocks

The determination of the level of corporate borrowing and the choice of debt maturity are the two most important concerns in the management of capital structure. In this study, we examine analytically and empirically the impact of debt maturity changes on the expected returns of common stocks. Using the US stock market data and financial statement data, we examine the cross-sectional relation between expected returns and financial leverage ratios. We find reliable evidence that common stock expected returns are positively related to the extent of short-term debt financing. The positive relation is significant even after we control for systematic risk, total debt ratio and firm size. The results suggest that an increase in short-term debt which displaces the same amount of long-term debt increases the expected returns of common stocks, possibly because the substitution transfers risk from long-term debtholders to shareholders.The author is from the Department of Business Administration, Han Sung University, Seoul, Korea. This paper is based on my dissertation submitted to the School of Management, SUNY at Buffalo (1991). I would like to thank my dissertation committee, Dosoung Choi, Frank Jen and Michael Rozeff, for their invaluable comments throughout the dissertation research.     

新会计准则对上市公司所得税税负影响研究

新会计准则与原会计准则相比有很大变化,特别是公允价值的广泛采用和资产负债表债务法的运用,会影响企业应缴所得税和实际所得税税负。本文从分析企业财务因素入手,分别以上市公司全部行业和制造业为样本,运用多元线性回归的方法,检验主要财务因素与公司实际税负的关系,得出执行新会计准则降低了上市公司平均所得税税负的研究结论。     

“入世”后民营经济发展中应着力解决的若干问题

“入世”后，民营经济将成为中国市场竞争中的主体经济，然而，民营经济发展所需的条件依然相当严峻，主要表现有二：一是体制环境及制约因素依然相当严重，具体反映在计划经济体制的影响不会立即消失，法律法规方面歧视性条款修改尚需时日，金融制约还将持续一段时间，产业准入也还有种种困难；二是民营企业本身的发展存在一系列亟待解决的问题，具体反映在组织结构调整，产业结构调整，严格财务管理和处理好纳税与经营发展的关系等方面。要有效推进民营经济发展，必须实行国民待遇政策，其中包括：按照“公开，公平，公正”的市场原则，调整制度和政策的取向，转换政府职能，弱化行政干预，实行公平税赋制度和公平财会制度，实行公平的金融市场准入制度。     

研发投入对战略性新兴产业企业财务风险的影响--基于融资结构门限回归模型的实证检验

本文基于2012~2020年面板数据,实证检验了研发投入对战略性新兴产业企业财务风险的影响。固定效应模型检验表明,研发投入与财务风险之间存在非线性关系。门限回归模型检验发现,研发投入对财务风险的影响存在融资结构双重门限效应。当融资结构水平低于第一门限值和介于两个门限值区间时,研发投入增加会显著改善财务状况,但改善效应随融资结构水平提高而显著下降。当融资结构水平大于第二门限值时,研发投入增加会显著增加财务风险。采用替换变量法和滞后一期法对上述研究进行了稳健性检验,证明上述结论成立。在异质性检验中发现,不同行业或不同地区战略性新兴产业企业的研发投入对其财务风险影响的融资结构门限效应不尽相同,即有双重门限效应和单一门限效应之分。在不同融资结构水平下,不同行业或不同地区战略性新兴产业企业的研发投入对其财务风险影响的效应存在显著差异。据此,给控制或防范战略性新兴产业企业因研发投入而引发的财务风险提出了相关建议。     

Choice of Mortgage Contracts: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances

This study revisits the empirical question of the determinants of the choice between fixed‐ and adjustable‐rate mortgages using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances that overcome some of the data limitations in previous studies. The results from a logit model of mortgage choice indicate that pricing variables and affordability are important considerations. We also find that factors, such as mobility expectations, income volatility and attitudes toward financial risk largely influence mortgage choice, with more risk‐averse borrowers preferring fixed‐rate mortgages. For households that are less risk averse, the mortgage type choice decision is less sensitive to pricing variables and income volatility, and affordability factors are not significant. These findings provide empirical support that underscores the importance of attitudes toward risks in mortgage choice.     

Risks and returns of acquiring and acquired firms in Singapore: An empirical analysis

This paper investigates the risk profiles of target and acquiring firms and the impact of the takeover process on them. It was found that corporate takeovers generally increased the systematic risk of the acquiring firms after the event while lowering the systematic risk of the target firms. There were large and statistically significant returns obtained by the shareholders of the target firms due to the takeover event. The shareholders of the acquiring firms did not suffer any negative returns.The authors benefitted from the discussions at the Academy of International Business South-east Asia Regional Conference, 26–28 June 1986, where an earlier version of this paper was presented. The authors also like to acknowledge the financial support from the National University of Singapore.     

公允价值计量和金融资产减值相关理论研究

金融企业资产发生减值的情况已经大规模出现，由此产生的资产减值问题引起了人们的普遍关注。公允价值是会计发展的方向，新《企业会计准则》实现了与国际财务报告准则的趋同，其标志之一是公允价值的全面应用，这也意味着公允价值在我国面临的主要问题已经由“是否应当应用”转为“应当怎样应用、应当怎样更好的应用”。     

Relationship stability, trust and relational risk in marketing channels: Evidence from China

This paper provides an integrated framework for examining effects of relationship stability and trust on relational risk and for exploring the moderating effects of guanxi on the relationships between trust and relational risk in marketing channels. The framework is tested with 225 dyads of questionnaires about buyer-supplier relationships in the Chinese household appliances sector. The results indicate that relationship length and dyadic solidarity can reduce the relational risk perceived by buyers through goodwill trust in their suppliers, but can increase the perceived relational risk through trust in their competence. Guanxi helps to weaken the positive relationship between a buyer's trust in suppliers' competence and its perceived relational risk, and dyadic solidarity can directly lower relational risk. This paper makes clear that buyers locked in a stable relationship will face relational risk, and it further identifies the specific variables which impact on the relational risk and the paths from which relational risk comes.     

Corporate social responsibility and financial performance: correlation or misspecification?

Researchers have reported a positive, negative, and neutral impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on financial performance. This inconsistency may be due to flawed empirical analysis. In this paper, we demonstrate a particular flaw in existing econometric studies of the relationship between social and financial performance. These studies estimate the effect of CSR by regressing firm performance on corporate social performance, and several control variables. This model is misspecified because it does not control for investment in R&D, which has been shown to be an important determinant of firm performance. This misspecification results in upwardly biased estimates of the financial impact of CSR. When the model is properly specified, we find that CSR has a neutral impact on financial performance. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.