On the willingness to pay to reduce risks of small losses

While willingness to pay is a common concept to measure the benefit gained from a reduction in the probability of loss, it is still questionable how it is linked to risk aversion and risk elimination behaviors, and how it is affected by the presence of an exogenous source of risk. By focusing only on risks of small losses, this article sheds light on these three issues and provides new results on the determinants of the willingness to pay.      

The effect of distance on willingness to pay values: a case study of wetlands and salmon in California

Most contingent valuation studies in the literature utilized a pre-determined geographic market area for their sample frame. In other words, they did not include variables that would measure the extent of the geographic areas over which to aggregate willingness to pay. These studies implicitly assumed that the effects of geographic distance were moot; an assumption that could have led to an understatement of the aggregate benefit values computed in these studies. The overall goal of this study was to determine if distance affects willingness to pay for public goods with large non-use values. The data used came from a contingent valuation study regarding the San Joaquin Valley, CA. Respondents were asked about their willingness to pay (WTP) for three proposed programs designed to reduce various environmental problems in the Valley. A logit model was used to examine the effects of geographic distance on respondents' willingness to pay for each of the three programs. Results indicate that distance affected WTP for two of the three programs (wetlands habitat and wildlife, and the wildlife contamination control programs). We calculate the underestimate in benefits if the geographic extent of the public good market is arbitrarily limited to one political jurisdiction.     

Endogenous private safety investment and the willingness to pay for mortality risk reductions

When individuals cannot undertake safety-improving expenditures, the effect of an increase in the initial risk on the willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reduction is positive because of the dead-anyway effect. When they can undertake safety-improving expenditures, the effect of an increase in the initial risk is governed by two effects: The dead-anyway effect which is positive and the high-payment effect which is negative. We treat the two types of risk-reducing expenditures, endogenous and exogenous, as inputs in a safety-improving technology function and find conditions that guarantee that the high-payment effect dominates.     

Valuing climate protection through willingness to pay for biomass ethanol

This study uses a multi-part, split-sample contingent valuation method (CVM) and fair share (FS) survey to better understand the public's valuation of mitigating global climate change through its willingness to pay for biomass or “cellulosic” ethanol. In addition to a basic CVM question, a related scenario was developed that asked half of the survey respondents to state their fair share cost to lessen a potential food shortage in the next decade, also through the expanded use of cellulosic ethanol. Three alternative biomass feedstocks were assessed: farming residues, forestry residues and paper mill wastes, and municipal solid wastes. Overall a slightly larger proportion of respondents were WTP extra for cellulosic ethanol in the basic CVM scenario than in the FS scenario, though no significant differences were found in the WTP for the different feedstocks. Bid curve lognormal regression results for the two models were similar, supporting the idea that asking a FS rather than a conventional WTP question may be justifiable in some circumstances, such as in cases of a national emergency.     

A comparison of empirical models used to infer the willingness to pay in contingent valuation

The essence of the contingent valuation method consists of creating a hypothetical market where respondents are asked about their willingness to pay (WTP) for a non-market good. Different empirical models can be formulated to estimate the expected WTP of a sample of respondents and, then, through aggregation, the social valuation of the good is inferred.This paper outlines the relevance of the distributional assumptions when estimating mean WTP. Several parametric and non-parametric methods are discussed and applied to calculate the existence value of a natural space. Results show that WTP is extremely sensitive to the empirical model used.First version received: November 2002 / Final version received: January 2004     

Testing for rationality: the case of discrete choice data

When working with micro data on consumer demand, there are many different situations where decisions involve only discrete choices. In this context, conditions under which an underlying rational preference structure exists are derived. Moreover, by introducing flexibility into the model, it is possible to identify nonrational behavior in the sample.     

Contingent values as implicit contracts: estimating minimum legal willingness to pay for conservation of large carnivores in Sweden

Mean willingness-to-pay (WTP) based on multiple bounded, discrete choice responses from contingent valuation surveys are normally obtained using some kind of parametric estimator. This paper instead exploits the possibility to interpret the response to the discrete-choice question as an implicit contract between the researcher and the respondent, resulting in a minimum legal WTP (MLW) estimator. Never previously used in valuation literature, it is used in this paper to estimate the WTP for the preservation of large carnivores in Sweden, based on a large scale, national survey. Results show that MLW estimates only were 12–19% of the comparable parametric estimates. In keeping with other results in contingent valuation literature, we find that the MLW estimates are positively related to the educational level, income and the fraction of urban population, while negatively related to age. Among the advantages of the MLW estimator is its transparency as well as the fact that it rests on a contractual notion of WTP.      

Willingness to pay for other species' well-being

Benefit-cost analysis of environmental policies typically focuses on benefits to human health and well-being. For other species, economists have attempted to measure human WTP for changes in the numbers of individuals for different types of wildlife, and to preserve biodiversity. When it comes to humans' WTP for improvements in the quality-of-life for other species, however, the evidence is limited. Morbidity and quality-of-life considerations may be particularly important to the task of valuing non-fatal harm to wildlife in the wake of an environmental disaster. We argue that the other species morbidity-reduction component of WTP should be calculated net of any “outrage” component associated with the cause of the harm. This net WTP is likely to be correlated with the premium that people are willing to pay for chicken products from birds for which the quality-of-life has been enhanced by improved animal welfare measures. This paper uses a conjoint choice stated preference survey to reveal the nature of systematic heterogeneity in preferences for “humanely raised” versus “conventionally raised” chicken. We also use latent class analysis to distinguish between two classes of people—those who are willing to pay a premium for humanely raised chicken, and those who are not.     

A discrete choice experiment to determine patient preferences for injection devices in multiple sclerosis

Abstract

Objective:

Relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) is usually managed with disease modifying drugs (DMDs), most commonly administered via self-injection. The aim of this study was to estimate the influence that different treatment-related attributes have for MS patients on their choice of MS DMD device. By establishing the relative importance of these characteristics for patients it should be possible to better understand the acceptability of a given device and to optimize the development of future devices.

Methods:

A discrete choice experiment (DCE) survey was developed on the basis of a review of published literature. Attributes identified for inclusion in the survey were: ease of use; comfort of use; presence of additional functions, needle visibility; practicality and efficacy. Choice sets were presented as pairs of hypothetical treatments based upon a fractional factorial design. One-hundred device-using MS patients completed the survey online. Analysis was conducted using a mixed-logit approach.

Results:

Analysis of the DCE data revealed that all attributes significantly predicted treatment choice. Efficacy exhibited the largest effect on treatment selection and this provided context for understanding the magnitude of impact for the other attributes. Reducing the discomfort associated with device use and eliminating the necessity for assembly or drug reconstitution were highly valued. The addition of reminder and time-stamping functions, improved needlestick injury prevention, and reduction in device size were secondary concerns but still deemed desirable.

Conclusion:

Efficacy is of primary importance to MS patients, but characteristics of drug delivery devices can play an important role in treatment decision-making. Not all device characteristics could be included, and results are based upon 100 participants only. Findings suggest there is significant potential value in developing self-injection devices that are not only efficacious but also convenient and comfortable to use. Reducing barriers to adherence could potentially translate into improved treatment outcomes for patients with MS.     

Incorporating Discontinuous Preferences into the Analysis of Discrete Choice Experiments

Data from a discrete choice experiment on improvements of rural landscape attributes are used to investigate the implications of discontinuous preferences on willingness to pay estimates. Using a multinomial error component logit model, we explore differences in scale and unexplained variance between respondents with discontinuous and continuous preferences and condition taste intensities on whether or not each attribute was considered by the respondent during the evaluation of alternatives. Results suggest that significant improvements in model performance can be achieved when discontinuous preferences are accommodated in the econometric specification, and that the magnitude and robustness of the willingness to pay estimates are sensitive to discontinuous preferences.     

Modelling preference heterogeneity for theatre tickets: a discrete choice modelling approach on Royal Danish Theatre booking data

This article analyses the behavioural choice for theatre tickets using a rich data set for 2010–2013 from the sale system of the Royal Danish National Theatre. A consumer who decides to attend a theatre production faces multiple sources of price variation that involves a choice by the consumer among different ticket alternatives. Three modelling approaches are proposed in order to model ticket purchases: conditional logit with socio-demographic characteristics, nested logit and latent class. These models allow us explicitly to take into account consumers’ preference heterogeneity with respect to the attributes associated with each ticket alternative (quality of the seat and day of the performance). In addition, the willingness to pay of choice attributes is estimated. Final results suggest that customers’ characteristics in terms of age and frequency of theatre attendance characterize different patterns of behaviour in the choice of theatre ticket.     

Incremental and Average Control Costs in a Model of Water Quality Trading with Discrete Abatement Units

This paper answers three questions related to the discrete nature of pollution abatement: (i) does a source’s incremental control cost (as defined by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) necessarily exceed its average control cost, (ii) is incremental control cost a better approximation of a source’s willingness to pay for abatement credits than average control cost, and (iii) exactly how does trading in discrete and continuous abatement markets differ? We find that the answer to the first two questions are both “no”, suggesting that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency needs to refine its reliance on incremental control cost as the sole measure upon which to assess the financial feasibility of water quality trading. In answer to the third question, we show that the outcome of bilateral trading in the presence of discrete abatement is determined by comparing the gains from trade associated with the full sequence of possible “sunk cost trading” scenarios. For the most common case where trading partners’ average control cost curves “cross,” the trading outcome with discrete abatement is inherently sensitive to the initial allocation of abatement responsibilities.     

The impact of behavioural risk-reduction interventions on willingness to pay to avoid sexually transmitted infections: a stated preference study of justice-involved youth

Risky health behaviours, such as smoking, drinking and risky sex, are substantial contributors to the U.S. morbidity rates and healthcare costs. While economic models typically regard preferences as stable, a growing literature suggests that information, including how it interacts with intentions and attitudes, plays an important role in unhealthy behaviours. Relatedly, a large health literature demonstrates that theory-based behavioural interventions can successfully change risky behaviour. This study uses the contingent valuation (CV) survey method to investigate the impact of behavioural interventions on a novel outcome measure: the willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid the consequences associated with risky behaviour. Using novel pre- and post-intervention data from Project MARS (Motivating Adolescents to Reduce Sexual Risk), this study estimates the impact of the intervention on elicited WTP to avoid sexually transmitted infections (STIs). It is found that after the intervention, participants’ elicited WTP to avoid STIs were significantly higher, and more sensitive to differences in infection severity. These results suggest that the intervention may affect risky sexual behaviour by changing the perceived value of avoiding the consequences of risky sexual behaviour. Additionally, these findings contribute to an ongoing debate regarding the construct validity of CV studies in health economics.     

An estimation of the future demand for portable Internet service in Korea

Portable Internet service (PIS), which refers to wireless Internet service that can be accessed via a portable terminal at every time and at any place, is scheduled to be launched in Korea in early 2006. Thus, both the government and the industry need to obtain quantitative information on the future demand for the service. This study attempts to estimate future demand for the PIS, to analyze the determinants of the demand, and to conduct pre-test-market evaluation of the service. To this end, the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method is employed. On the whole, respondents accepted the contingent market and were willing to contribute a significant amount, on average. This willingness varies according to individual characteristics. Finally, the study discusses the importance of including valuation method in a pre-test-market evaluation of the PIS and presents the implications of the results, such as the mean willingness to pay (WTP) and the effects of individual characteristics and concerns about the service on the WTP.     

A discrete choice experiment to determine UK patient preference for attributes of disease modifying treatments in Multiple Sclerosis

Aims: The recent licensing of Disease Modifying Treatments (DMTs) for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has increased available treatment options. The aim of this study was to explore MS patients’ preference for the different attributes of DMTs in the UK.

Materials and methods: Attributes (treatment characteristics) for inclusion in the discrete choice experiment (DCE) were determined through published literature and interviews with 12 people with MS. Seven attributes were selected. Participants were presented with three hypothetical treatment options sampled from included attributes and asked for their most/least preferred options. The influence of patient characteristics and demographics on patient preference was also investigated.

Results: The DCE was completed by 350 people with MS (81% female, mean age?=?39). Results showed that method of taking medication was the strongest determinant of preference (27%; relative importance out of 100%), followed by relapse free rate (21%) and symptom progression (14%). Risk of fatigue (8%) and type of monitoring (6%) were the weakest determinants of preference. Once-daily oral treatment was preferred over all other methods of administration. Participant characteristics did not influence data on strength of preference.

Limitations: This study assumed adequate participant understanding of the discrete choice experiment task, and recruitment targeted those with access to the internet.

Conclusions: These results, derived from people with MS in the UK, should be used to inform individual discussions with patients about DMT choices.     

The internalization of externalities in the production of electricity: Willingness to pay for the attributes of a policy for renewable energy

This paper investigates the willingness to pay of a sample of residents of Bath, England, for a hypothetical program that promotes the production of renewable energy. Using choice experiments, we assess the preferences of respondents for a policy for the promotion of renewable energy that: (i) contributes to the internalization of the external costs caused by fossil fuel technologies; (ii) affects the short-term security of energy supply; (iii) has an impact on the employment in the energy sector; and (iv) leads to an increase in the electricity bill. Responses to the choice questions show that our respondents are in favour of a policy for renewable energy and that they attach a high value to a policy that brings private and public benefits in terms of climate change and energy security benefits. Our results therefore suggest that consumers are willing to pay a higher price for electricity in order to internalize the external costs in terms of energy security, climate change and air pollution caused by the production of electricity.     

Demand forecasting for multigenerational products combining discrete choice and dynamics of diffusion under technological trajectories

The discrete choice model generally captures consumers' valuation of the product's quality within the framework of a cross-sectional analysis, while the diffusion model captures the dynamics of demand within the framework of a time-series analysis. We propose an adjusted discrete choice model that incorporates the choice behavior of the consumer into the dynamics of product diffusion. In addition, a new estimation structure is proposed, within the framework of the time-series analysis, which enables the estimation of the discrete choice model on market-level data to be performed in such a way as to avoid the problem of price endogeneity and to obtain greater flexibility in forecasting demand. As an empirical application, the suggested model is applied to the case of the worldwide DRAM (dynamic random access memory) market. In forecasting future demand of DRAM generations, we integrate Moore's law and learning by doing to reflect the future technological trajectories of DRAM innovations, as well as consumers' consumption trends to reflect the dynamics of demand environments. As a result, the suggested model shows better performance in explaining the diffusion of new-generation product with limited number of data observations.     

Proportionality of Willingness to Pay to Small Changes in Risk: The Impact of Attitudinal Factors in Scope Tests

Sensitivity (proportionality) of willingness to pay (WTP) to (small) risk changes is often used as a criterion to test for valid measures of economic preferences. In a contingent valuation (CV) study conducted in Austria, 1,005 respondents were asked their WTP for preventing an increase in the risk of being killed in an avalanche of 1/42,500 and 3/42,500 respectively. WTP for the higher variation in risk is significantly greater than WTP for the lower risk change. We find evidence that those respondents who have had personal experience of avalanches in recent years combine the information about future risk increase—as provided in the survey—with the observed number of fatal avalanche accidents in the past. Proportionality of WTP holds if such prior experience is taken into account and if attitudinal factors in scope tests are controlled for. This research was funded by alpS GmbH—Center for Natural Hazard Management, Innsbruck, Austria.     

Estimation of the public benefits of urban water supply improvements in Ethiopia: a choice experiment

Improving existing drinking water supply services in developing countries depends crucially on available financial resources. Cost recovery rates of these services are typically low, while demand for more reliable services is high and rapidly growing. Most stated preference-based demand studies in the developing world apply the contingent valuation method and focus on rural areas. This study examines household Willingness to Pay (WTP) for improved water supply services in a choice experiment in an urban area in Ethiopia, a country with the lowest water supply coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa. The design of the choice experiment allows estimation of the value of both drinking water supply reliability and safety. The estimated economic values can be used in policy appraisals of improved supply investment decisions. Despite significant income constraints, households are willing to pay up to 80% extra for improved levels of water supply over and above their current water bill. Women and households living in the poorest part of the city with the lowest service levels value the improvement of water quality most. As expected, also averting behaviour and expenditures play an important role.