Why energy transitions matter: A case study of methanol

The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) contain several new provisions governing emissions from motor vehicles. These provisions of the 1990 CAAA will have a dramatic impact on the type of cars people drive over the coming decades. Given the high cost of achieving further reductions from automobiles, there has been increasing interest in exploring alternative fuels that improve environmental quality. One important contribution of this study is to highlight the importance of considering transition issues in assessing the cost of alternative fuels. A second contribution of this paper is to demonstrate how the cost-effectiveness of methanol and M85 depends on how a methanol-based strategy is implemented. The analysis of the costs and effectiveness of methanol and gasoline leads to the following conclusions: (1) transition issues are critical in evaluating the cost and cost-effectiveness of methanol-based fuels; (2) M85 and M100 are likely to be expensive relative to conventional gasoline, particularly in the near term and short term; (3) cost-effectiveness varies dramatically by region, with Los Angeles and New York substantially better than Houston; and (4) widespread introduction of methanol is not likely to be a cost-effective approach for improving urban air quality.Mr. Hahn is a Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and an Adjunct Professor of Economics at Carnegie Mellon University. Mr. Borick was a Research Assistant at the American Enterprise Institute at the time this paper was written. Several people contributed to this paper. First and foremost, we would like to thank Armistead Russell for help in characterizing vehicle emissions. In addition, we would like to thank Jeff Alson, Vann Bussman, Alex Cristofaro, Mark DeLuchi, Carmen Difiglio, Alan Dunker, Art Fraas, John Heller, Bruce Henning, Russell Jones, Walt Kreucher, Alan Krupnick, Tom Lareau, William Leney, Ben Massell, Alan Mawdsley, Al McGartland, Greg McRae, Bob Oglesby, Dan Sperling, Brian Sullivan, Dan Townsend, Margaret Walls, Douglas Youngblood, Marty Zimmerman, and Don Zinger. This paper represents the views of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of any individuals or institutions with which the authors are affiliated.     

COSTS AND BENEFITS OF AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENT IN HONG KONG

A respiratory health survey conducted in Hong Kong in 1989 identified significant health differences between school age children living in an industrial area with poor ambient air quality and those in a control group living in a relatively clean area. In 1990, the government banned the use of high sulphur fuel. As a result, ambient sulfur levels dropped sharply and particulate levels dropped moderately. The avoided costs of doctor consultations alone offset a moderate fraction of the costs of this air quality improvement. If even the lower end of estimates from elsewhere apply to Hong Kong's willingness to pay for symptom relief, such values offset a major share of the costs of the air quality improvement simply through near-term improvements in health. Considering longer-term health and other benefits leads one to conclude that the economic benefits likely far outweigh the costs.     

WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR AIR QUALITY: THE CASE OF OUTDOOR EXERCISE

This study uses a contingent valuation (CV) survey to establish a sample of outdoor exercisers' willingness to pay (WTP) for ambient air quality improvements in East Baton Rouge parish, Louisiana. Estimated annual median and mean WTP values are £95 and £191, respectively, per person per year for assurance that ozone levels would not become "unhealthful" on any day. The survey informed respondents that in the prior year the local community experienced 14 days on which ozone levels exceeded federal standards. The study makes the strong assumptions that respondents believed they were "buying" 14 more healthy days and that WTP per day "bought" is constant. Given these assumptions, one can scale this WTP response to represent annual medians and means of approximately £7 and £14 per person per day, respectively. An econometric procedure for generalizing the community's annual WTP to avoid the 14 unhealthful days yields estimates ranging from £3.21 and £5.36 per person per healthy day, or between £12.4 and £20.6 million per year. The unit day estimates are comparable to CV and household production finction estimates of WTP in the Los Angeles basin, suggesting their usefulness for benefits transfer .     

Reforming Social Welfare in Germany: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

Abstract. In this paper, the effects of social assistance reform proposals are discussed for the case of Germany using a computable general equilibrium model that incorporates a discrete choice model of labour supply. This allows us to identify general equilibrium effects of the reforms on wages and unemployment. The simulation results show that general equilibrium wage reactions mitigate labour supply effects and that unemployment in fact decreases. Wage reactions are thus sufficiently strong to prevent additional labour supply from translating into higher unemployment. The simulations indicate that major cuts in welfare payments are necessary to produce substantial employment effects.     

Welfare and the family size decision of low-income,two-parent families

This study determines the increase in family size given an increase in the per child welfare benefit for a family with children in the US. The family size decision was modeled as a discrete choice decision. Data were obtained from the 1980-91 March Current Population Surveys of the US Census Bureau on 13,516 low-income, nonmilitary, non-farm, two-parent families with at least one dependent child. Low income was any amount under twice the official poverty level. Parents were limited to ages 18-40 years. Alaska and Hawaii were excluded. The data sets for 1979-90 were pooled. The sample included 10% Blacks and 27% receiving some amount of welfare. Average ages were 28.9 years for mothers and 30.8 years for fathers. The average number of children was 2.43. Findings from the ordered probit model indicate that education had a negative impact on family size, and age and race had positive impacts. Wages did not have a significant effect. The state unemployment rate and the average state income had negative effects. Unearned income had a small but significant effect on family size. The marginal welfare benefit had a positive impact. Findings reinforce the wealth hypothesis, that wealthier societies have smaller family sizes. Family size declines with increases in wages and education, which reflect increases in opportunity costs for time. Family size increases with age, as rearing children is labor-intensive. Family size increases with unearned income and welfare benefits that make childbearing affordable. It is argued that poor people in developed societies behave more consistently like poor people in developing countries. A 100% increase in the per child welfare benefit resulted in a 2% increase in the number of children. The policy implication is that a considerable increase in welfare benefits will have only trivial behavioral impacts for the poor on family size decisions.     

THE VALUE OF CLEANER AIR: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH

Policymakers in the legislative and regulatory arenas face increasing public expectations that authorities will both promulgate and implement strict environmental programs. At the same time, the aggregate cost of such programs is rising and is impacting economic sectors previously untouched. In this context, a major study used an integrated interdisciplinary perspective to determine what economic benefits would result from air pollution controls. Specifically, the study developed estimates for the health benefits of reducing ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations in the nation's most polluted region—the South Coast Air Basin centering on Los Angeles. This paper presents the economic methodologies and results of that study. It also discusses how health and atmospheric sciences informed the economic assessment.     

Can Understanding Spatial Equilibria Enhance Benefit Transfers for Environmental Policy Evaluation?

A conceptual model of consumer sorting in markets for housing, labor and health care is outlined and used to make three points about how benefit transfers are used for environmental policy evaluation. First, the standard approach to assessing benefits of air quality improvements by transferring the value of a statistical life from labor market studies embeds several untested (but testable) assumptions. Second, if the cost of an environmental policy exceeds its capitalized effect on housing prices, then the capitalization effect is an insufficient statistic for determining whether benefits exceed costs. Third, there are several ways in which equilibrium sorting models may be usefully extended to assess distributional welfare effects of environmental policies.     

THE VALUE OF CLEANER AIR: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH

Policymakers in the legislative and regulatory arenas face increasing public expectations that authorities will both promulgate and implement strict environmental programs. At the same time, the aggregate cost of such programs is rising and is impacting economic sectors previously untouched. In this context, a major study used an integrated interdisciplinary perspective to determine what economic benefits would result from air pollution controls. Specifically, the study developed estimates for the health benefits of reducing ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations in the nation's most polluted region—the South Coast Air Basin centering on Los Angeles. This paper presents the economic methodologies and results of that study. It also discusses how health and atmospheric sciences informed the economic assessment.     

Race,Affirmative Action,and Women's Employment in US Highway Construction

This paper analyzes employment hours, supplemented by interview data, from large highway construction sites in Boston, Los Angeles, and Oakland in the 1980s and 1990s. This study suggests that affirmative action positively affects the employment of women in construction and where there is more pressure, there are strongr results. Second, white women and women of color tend to work in trades that reflect the existing racial hierarchies among men. Therefore race as well as gender should be reflected in the design and measurement of the impacts of employment programs. Community organizing, advocacy for women and men of color, judicial oversight and positive efforts by unions and employers are still critical to bridging the gap between policy intentions and outcomes.     

Nonlinear income effects in random utility models: revisiting the accuracy of the representative consumer approximation

This article investigates the implications of nonlinear income effects in Random Utility Models (RUM) for measuring general equilibrium welfare impacts. A popular approach in applied welfare analysis is to approximate the expected compensating variation (cv) for an amenity change as the cv of a representative consumer whose indirect utility is given by the expected maximum utility. However, this approach can be misleading in the case of nonmarginal changes as it implies that changes in income do not affect the consumer's choice. In this case the true expected cv can be obtained via simulation. Empirical applications to recreational demand find that the bias from the representative approach is small. This article re-evaluates the accuracy of the representative consumer approximation in the context of measuring the general equilibrium welfare impacts of large environmental changes. Our findings suggest that, though the representative consumer approximation could lead to biased point estimates of the expected cv, this bias is overwhelmed by the size of the confidence intervals that result from the empirical estimation of household preferences.     

Schools and Location: Tiebout,Alonso, and Governmental Finance Policy

Many discussions of school finance policy fail to consider how households respond to policies that change the attractiveness of different residential locations. We develop a general equilibrium model that incorporates workplace choice, residential choice, and political choice of tax and expenditure levels. Importantly, we consider multiple workplaces, a fundamental feature of today's metropolitan landscape. This basic model permits investigating how accessibility and public goods interact in a metropolitan area. The model is used to analyze two conventional policy initiatives: school district consolidation and district power equalization. The surprising conclusion is that school quality and welfare can fall for all families when these restrictions on choice are introduced.     

Model selection and misspecification in discrete choice welfare analysis

This study extends the work by Herriges and Kling (1997) to further evaluate the impact of discrete choice modelling techniques on welfare measures. Particularly, we evaluate the performance of the increasingly popular mixed logit model and the computational strategy for deriving discrete choice welfare measures. Our simulation results show that model misspecification can have profound effects on welfare measures. In general, the flexible mixed logit model performs relatively well in the presence of misspecification. However, when the nesting structure can be appropriately identified (via statistical tests and a priori knowledge/experience), the nested logit model provides more reliable welfare measures than the mixed logit model.     

洛杉矶的雾霾治理及其启示

1943年美国发生了著名的"洛杉矶雾霾"事件,直到20世纪70年代,该市区还被称为"美国烟雾城"。洛杉矶雾霾夏天主要起因于臭氧,冬天主要是源于细微颗粒物等。洛杉矶在治理雾霾方面的主要做法包括立法、排污许可证制度、推广先进环保技术、建立排污交易机制和成立跨部门专门机构等,其治理工作取得了明显成效:2012年,加州达到"不健康空气"水平的日子比2000年减少了约74%。我国治理雾霾,应更加重视空气污染的长期性预测分析,引入市场机制,成立跨地区的空气污染治理机构,同时,加强中美间环保科技的国际合作。     

Semi-parametric discrete choice measures of willingness to pay

A semi-parametric discrete choice method is proposed to recover welfare measures from individual choice data. The proposed method is compared with the traditional binary choice models in an application to measure benefits of recreation trips.     

PRESCRIPTIVE PUBLIC CHOICE: APPLICATION TO RESIDENTIAL WATER RATE REFORM

Peltzman's model of price regulation predicts inefficient prices for regulated firms; based on a constraint giving the trade-off between economic profit and the regulated price, the price will be set between a competitive industry price and a monopoly price. This article generalizes the model for application to a wider class of trade-offs, including municipal utilities that are not legally permitted to make a profit. Extending Peltzman's idea of political support functions, this article defines political feasibility relative to economic efficiency. A Pareto superior change with compensation is sufficient but not necessary for political feasibility; the Kaldor-Hicks criterion is neither necessary nor sufficient for political feasibility. The generalization of Peltzman's model of public choice and the concept of political feasibility together explain why Tucson in 1976 and Los Angeles in 1993 adopted efficient water rates during droughts and why, 1 yr later, Tucson rescinded the rates and Los Angeles almost rescinded them. The concept of political feasibility explains why and how, after the drought, the Los Angeles innovations to rate design achieved efficiency and political feasibility, avoiding reversion to the previous, inefficient rates, by separating economic efficiency from political feasibility in both the rate design and the rate reform process. ( JEL D42, D70, H00, L38, L51, L97, Q25, Q28, Q48, Q58)     

A Portlander's View of Smart Growth

Metro, a regional planning authority, has written and implemented the nation's strongest and most comprehensive smart-growth plan in Portland, Oregon. For a region expected to grow in population by 80 percent in the next five decades, Metro's plan calls for a mere 6 percent expansion of land area; high-density housing in the form of apartments, mixed-use developments, and single-family homes on small lots; pedestrian-friendly design codes; 125 miles of rail transit; and almost no new highway construction. Though smart-growth advocates promise their policies will reduce congestion, clean the air, provide affordable housing, protect open space, and reduce urban-service costs, Metro's plan does the opposite of all these things. Metro planners predict its plan will quadruple the time Portlanders waste sitting in traffic by 2020 and increase smog by 10 percent. The artificial land shortage posed by the urban-growth boundary has already turned Portland from one of the nation's most affordable housing markets to one of the ten least affordable ones. The plan's demand for infill development is sacrificing valuable urban open space to protect abundant rural open space. Rail transit and high-density developments both require huge subsidies. Portlanders initially supported Metro's efforts because they were told that planning would save Portland from becoming like Los Angeles, the nation's most congested and polluted urban area. In fact, Los Angeles is also the nation's densest urban area and has the fewest miles of freeway per capita, making it the epitome of smart growth. This actually led Metro to conclude that its goal is to “replicate” Los Angeles' development patterns in Portland. The result is that Portland-area residents are increasingly hostile to Metro's plans.     

Third-degree price discrimination,quality choice,and welfare

Employing an endogenous quality choice model, we reconsider the effect on welfare of monopolistic third-degree price discrimination. We prove that price discrimination always enhances welfare, mainly because the quality improvement owing to price discrimination increases consumer surplus. Moreover, we show that third-degree price discrimination benefits all parties, including consumers in the higher priced market if the preference differences between markets are sufficiently large.     

电视平台竞争:从免费模式到付费模式

本文建立了一个电视平台竞争的理论模型。电视台、厂商和观众之间通过一个三阶段博弈决定了电视台的广告数量、收视费用(付费模式下)和节目质量。研究表明:虽然付费模式下电视台向观众收取费用,但是节目质量仍可能低于免费模式并且总是低于社会最优水平。当单个广告给观众带来的干扰成本和电视平台之间差异程度都充分小或者都较大时,付费模式下的社会福利比免费模式下更高。     

ESTIMATING THE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM BENEFITS OF LARGE CHANGES IN SPATIALLY DELINEATED PUBLIC GOODS*

The purpose of this article is to report a new approach for measuring the general equilibrium willingness to pay for large changes in spatially delineated public goods such as air quality. We estimate the parameters of a locational equilibrium model and compute equilibria for alternative scenarios characterizing the availability of public goods within a system of communities. Welfare measures take into consideration the adjustments of households in equilibrium to nonmarginal changes in public goods. The framework is used to analyze willingness to pay for reductions in ozone concentrations in Southern California between 1990 and 1995.     

Equilibria under deferred acceptance: Dropping strategies,filled positions,and welfare

We study many-to-one matching markets where hospitals have responsive preferences over students. We study the game induced by the student-optimal stable matching mechanism. We assume that students play their weakly dominant strategy of truth-telling.Roth and Sotomayor (1990) showed that equilibrium outcomes can be unstable. We prove that any stable matching is obtained in some equilibrium. We also show that the exhaustive class of dropping strategies does not necessarily generate the full set of equilibrium outcomes. Finally, we find that the ‘rural hospital theorem’ cannot be extended to the set of equilibrium outcomes and that welfare levels are in general unrelated to the set of stable matchings. Two important consequences are that, contrary to one-to-one matching markets, (a) filled positions depend on the equilibrium that is reached and (b) welfare levels are not bounded by the optimal stable matchings (with respect to the true preferences).