CAN SOFT DRINK TAXES REDUCE POPULATION WEIGHT?

Soft drink consumption has been hypothesized as one of the major factors in the growing rates of obesity in the United States. Nearly two-thirds of all states currently tax soft drinks using excise taxes, sales taxes, or special exceptions to food exemptions from sales taxes to reduce consumption of this product, raise revenue, and improve public health. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of changes in state soft drink taxes on body mass index (BMI), obesity, and overweight. Our results suggest that soft drink taxes influence BMI, but that the impact is small in magnitude. ( JEL I18, H75)     

THE IMPACT OF SODA SALES TAXES ON CONSUMPTION: EVIDENCE FROM SCANNER DATA

Scientific evidence on the effect of sugar consumption on obesity has propelled policy makers in several states across the United States to propose the imposition of a tax on soft drinks sales. In this article, we look at the effect of two tax events: a 5.5% sales tax on soft drinks imposed by the state of Maine in 1991 and a 5% sales tax on soft drinks levied in Ohio in 2003. We investigate this question by using sales data collected by scanner devices in the two states, where soda taxes where enacted as well as on neighboring states. We employ a difference‐in‐difference matching estimator (DIDM) that, in our setting, permits the comparison among treatment and control groups based on brand identity. Results suggest that neither sales tax had a statistically significant impact on the consumption of soft drinks. This finding is robust to several alternative specifications. (JEL D12, H22, C90, L66)     

Food and beverage television advertising exposure and youth consumption,body mass index and adiposity outcomes

This study examines the relationships between exposure to food and beverage product television advertisements and consumption and obesity outcomes among youth. Individual‐level data on fast food and soft drink consumption and body mass index (BMI) for young adolescents from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, kindergarten cohort, (1998–1999) and adiposity measures for children from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2003–2004) were combined with designated market area (DMA) Nielsen media advertising ratings data. To account for unobserved individual‐level and DMA‐level heterogeneity, various fixed‐ and random‐effects models were estimated. The results showed that exposure to soft drink and sugar‐sweetened beverage (SSB) advertisements is economically and statistically significantly associated with higher frequency of soft drink consumption among youth even after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, with elasticity estimates ranging from 0.4 to 0.5. The association between fast food advertising exposure and fast food consumption disappeared once we controlled for unobservables. Exposure to cereal advertising was significantly associated with young adolescents' BMI percentile ranking, but exposures to fast food and soft drink advertisements were not. The results on adiposity outcomes revealed that children's exposure to cereal advertising was associated with both percent body fatness and percent trunk fatness; fast food advertising was significantly associated with percent trunk fatness and marginally significantly associated with percent body fatness; and exposure to SSB advertising was marginally significantly associated with percent body and trunk fatness. The study results suggest that continued monitoring of advertising is important and policy debates regarding the regulation of youth‐directed marketing are warranted.     

Residual demand analysis of the carbonated soft drink industry

In this paper, residual demand analysis is applied to test whether carbonated soft drinks is a relevant product market. The residual demand elasticity for carbonated soft drinks is estimated using weekly A.C. Nielsen Scanner price and quantity data for carbonated soft drink products purchased in supermarkets in the United States. The estimated residual demand elasticity and average contribution margin for carbonated soft drinks suggest that a market for carbonated soft drinks is too narrow for purposes of merger analysis according to the Merger Guidelines established by the United States Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission.Two of the authors, Kaplan and Tollison, have served as consultants to and received research support from PepsiCo, Inc. The present project, though an aoutgrowth of this earlier work, received no support from PepsiCo, Inc. or any other source. The views expressed in the article are soley those of the authors, and the authors are responsible for any errors or omissions.     

Consumption patterns of food,tobacco and beverages: a cross-country analysis

This study considers the consumption patterns of food, tobacco, soft drinks, and alcohol in 43 developed and developing countries. Such an analysis is important for policy issues associated with tobacco, alcohol, and soft drinks. The results show that consumers in the developing countries spend a much higher proportion of their income on food than consumers in developed countries. The proportion of expenditure allocated to the other three commodities, tobacco, alcohol, and soft drinks, are similar in the two groups of countries. On average, people around the world allocate about one quarter of their income on food, 2.6% on tobacco, 3.2% on alcohol and 1.2% on soft drinks. The income elasticity estimates reveal that food is a necessity in most countries, while tobacco and alcohol are necessities in most of the developed countries and luxuries in a majority of developing countries. Soft drinks are a luxury in a majority of the developing as well as the developed countries. The own-price elasticities show that demand for all four commodities is price inelastic in all countries.     

Childhood obesity and the income gradient: evidence from Australia

This article examines the dynamic nature of human capital formation in the context of childhood obesity and the association of household income and childhood obesity in Australia using the first five waves of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. Our results show a strong evidence of dynamic nature of child obesity: the lag obesity is a significant and robust predictor of obesity in the current period. We also found that the main channel for childhood obesity is inter-generational trait: the probability of obesity in children born to an obese mother or father is 15% higher than that of other children. Other important determinants are lifestyle factors, including the consumption of drinks with a high sugar content and the amount of time watching TV. Income becomes an insignificant determinant of childhood obesity once we control for unobserved individual heterogeneity.     

The taste for variety: A hedonic analysis

This paper derives a hedonic price function for a household's consumption bundle. In a panel-data analysis for households' expenditures on 182 different soft drinks we find that consumers have a preference for variety in food consumption, ceteris paribus.     

Advertising in consumer allocation models: choice of functional form

This study investigates the empirical performance of four different functional forms for advertising-augmented consumer allocation models. The investigation is carried out within the context of the UK alcoholic drinks markets. The aims of the study are twofold: (i) to assess which of the four functional forms provides the best explanation of the data and may serve, therefore, as the most suitable framework for investigating advertising effects in these markets; and (ii) to consider whether the findings with regard to advertising effects are robust and consistent across model specifications. Advertising is found to have had no significant effect upon the ‘product composition’ or ‘level’ of total alcoholic drink consumption in the UK over the period from 1964 to 1996, and this result is robust with respect to variations in the specification of functional form. The consumption of alcoholic drink is affected by relative prices, total consumer budgeted expenditures and, to some extent, by autonomous shifts in tastes. The balance of the evidence from tests for functional form appeared to favour the Almost Ideal Demand system as a framework for investigating the influence of advertising and other factors on drink consumption.     

Consumer cohorts and purchases of nonalcoholic beverages

Age, period and cohort (APC) variables are included in a demand system that is used to estimate Norwegian purchases of nonalcoholic beverages. To take account of censoring, a two-step method is used. In the first step, the probabilities of purchasing milk, carbonated soft drinks and other soft drinks are estimated by probit models. The APC variables are highly significant. Older cohorts have higher probabilities of purchasing milk and lower probabilities of purchasing carbonated soft drinks than younger cohorts. In the second step, the probability density functions and the cumulative density function are used to correct for censoring. In the corrected demand system, there are positive cohort and negative age effects for milk. These effects suggest that the replacement of older by younger cohorts, in an increasingly older population, will result in reduced per capita purchases of milk. For carbonated soft drinks, there are no cohort or negative age effects, while there are positive age but no cohort effects for other soft drinks.     

National Sentiment and Consumer Choice: The Iraq War and Sales of US Products in Arab Countries

Did the rise in anti‐American sentiment caused by the Iraq war affect sales of US goods abroad? We address this question using data on soft drinks and fabric detergents sales in nine Arab countries. We find a statistically significant negative impact of the war on sales of US soft drinks in seven countries. The impact dissipates after a few months in two countries but persists in the other five. In the case of detergents, we only find a significant negative impact in one country. We conclude that international politics can sometimes affect consumer behavior and market outcomes.     

Energy Consumption,Economic Development and Temperature in China： Evidence from PSTR Model

Since the 1980s, the Chinese economy has developed rapidly, with an av- erage annual growth rate around 10%. Energy consumption in China has greatly in- creased as well. This paper investigates the relationship between energy consumption, economic development and temperature in China by adopting provincial panel data from 1990 to 2011. Different from existing studies, in this paper, we use a panel smooth transition regression （PSTR） model to estimate the non-linearity relationship. Four different threshold variables including two lagged endogenous variables and two important exogenous variables have been considered. We find that energy intensity and the ratio of gross capital formation are suitable for the non-linearity model. The estimated elasticities of time dynamic indicate that energy consumption is income in- elastic and temperature inelastic. Elasticities of real income at first increase and then decrease, however, elasticities of temperature gradually increase after the year 1993. Last of all, we propose some policy implications.     

消费理性成瘾、公共健康与政府行为-基于消费者对碳酸饮料过度消费行为的案例研究

本文以碳酸饮料为例,从健康经济学的角度探究消费者过度消费不健康食品的经济学成因。本文发现,消费者对不健康食品的过度消费,是由于其消费行为所具有的理性成瘾特性决定的。这种特性导致了消费者对不健康食品的需求价格弹性过低。市场无法通过自身的价格机制,将此类产品的消费量保持在一个健康的水平。即此类商品的消费市场中存在着市场失灵现象。政府应该对不健康食品的消费市场进行积极地干预,以纠正市场失灵。     

关系消费的表演与凝固——当代中国转型期饮酒社交消费研究

本文在回顾社会学界对饮食及礼物社交等研究的基础上,针对当代中国社会饮酒社交消费运作机制进行分析研究。在转型期,关系消费作为一种再生产的身体劳动嵌入到饮酒社交实践中,表现出维持人情、表达诚意、流露真情以及达成交换等四种表演文本。人们试图在饮酒社交消费中进行各种符合自己利益的情境化的表演实践,形成仪式的“社会剧”。当饮酒社交特殊的情境实践逐步被凝固为一种“社会形式”的同时,其所具有的意象也日趋走向虚无与形式化。在当前转型社会里,饮酒社交消费在成为个体寻找确定位置媒介的同时,其本身也沦为更大不确定性的媒介。     

All you can drink: should we worry about quality?

“All you can drink” specials are forbidden by law in several places. Authorities claim that establishments tend to offer low quality drinks when they use this type of promotion. In this paper, I elaborate a model to determine whether a monopolist produces higher or lower quality goods when using buffet pricing (all you can drink) instead of a two-part tariff. I find that the more profitable strategy is usually associated with a higher quality good than the less profitable strategy. However, under certain conditions buffet pricing is more profitable and leads to lower quality goods than the alternative.      

Do menu-labelling laws translate into results? The disparate impacts on population obesity and diabetes

ABSTRACT

Despite their joint importance to health care costs, the nature of the relationship between obesity and diabetes is contested within the medical literature. We leverage California’s 2008 law mandating menu-labelling at restaurants to confirm that the law reduced obesity compared to the experience of counties not subject to such regulation. Despite this reduction in obesity, we find no California-specific reduction in the prevalence of diabetes and we find a significantly positive impact on the likelihood of new diabetes diagnoses. We evaluate a range of potential hypotheses that rationalize the divergent findings on obesity and diabetes.     

Does the ban on trans-fats improve public health? In search of the optimal policy response

This paper examines the contribution of the regulatory ban on trans-fats and voluntary trans-fat regulation to public health outcomes for a sample of 39 countries in the period 1990–2015. To this end, we exploit within-country variation in trans-fat legislation to estimate the impact of the trans fat ban on cardiovascular mortality and obesity rates. Our difference-in-difference estimates indicate modest and beneficial effects of the trans-fats ban in reducing cardiovascular mortality and obesity rate. We find that the ban on trans fats tends to decrease the mortality rate attributed to cardiovascular diseases while the effects on the obesity rates are significant, especially among children and adolescent age group. By contrast, voluntary regulation of trans fats and demand-driven regulatory strategies are generally not associated with a marked drop in the obesity rate. By controlling for country-specific time trends, we show that the estimated mortality- and obesity-related impact of the ban is not driven by pre-existing trends, and does not affect non-cardiovascular mortality rate.

     

Incentive effects of paying demand response in wholesale electricity markets

Recently issued U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission regulations require comparable treatment of demand reduction and generation in the wholesale electric market so that they are compensated at the same market clearing price. The new regulations measure demand reduction as a reduction from a “customer baseline,” a historically based estimate of the expected consumption. In this paper, we study the incentive effects on the efficiency of the demand response regulation using a static equilibrium model and a dynamic extension of the model. Our analysis provides three main results. Firstly, our analysis shows that the demand reduction payment will induce consumers to (1) inflate the customer baseline by increasing consumption above the already excessive level during normal peak periods and (2) exaggerate demand reduction by decreasing consumption beyond the efficient level during a demand response event. This result persists when applied to alternative baseline designs in a dynamic model. Secondly, we study alternative policy remedies to restore the efficiency of demand response regulation and introduce a new approach to define the customer baseline as a fixed proportion of an aggregate baseline. In particular, the aggregate baseline approach can significantly weaken or eliminate the incentive to inflate the baseline. Finally, we illustrate that if the baseline inflation problem is solved and demand and supply functions are linear, the current policy can produce a net social welfare gain. However, the welfare improvement requires that demand reduction be paid only when the wholesale price is at least twice the fixed retail rate. This argues that the policy should include a sufficiently high threshold price below which demand response is not dispatched.     

Economic diversity, development capacity and sustainable development of China

China's economic growth over the past several decades has been among the highest in the world. It has been fueled by cheap fossil fuel energy so energy consumption has risen rapidly, but there are signs that negative feedbacks in the form of waste and inefficiency may affect future development. If energy throughput exceeds the capacity of the environment to process the inevitable waste from production then the development may not be sustainable. We calculate economic diversity using an energy flow network analysis method to explore the relationships of development policy, energy use, efficiency and sustainable development. China and its provinces are presented as a case study and the development status of each province in China is presented. China's development policy does not appear to be sustainable over the period 1985–1998 because of unsustainable energy consumption trends and declining economic diversity. An energy consumption tax is proposed for increasing diversity and dealing with increasing energy consumption in China.     

TELEVISION VIEWING, FAST-FOOD CONSUMPTION, AND CHILDREN'S OBESITY

Childhood obesity is rising in Taiwan and is becoming a major public health issue. This article examines the effect of children's TV viewing and fast-food consumption on childhood obesity. Using a nationwide survey data in Taiwan and a two-step estimation procedure, our results show that TV viewing hours and fast-food consumption are correlated. After controlling for the endogeneity, we find these two activities positively contribute to children's body weight and the increased risk of being overweight. Results suggest that public health/childhood obesity programs should educate parents of the critical influence of TV viewing and fast-food consumption on childhood obesity. The government can also encourage the fast-food industry to develop and sell healthier foods for children and provide point of sale nutritional information of these products . ( JEL I12, I18)     

Autocorrelation,structural breaks and the predictive ability of dividend yield

Wine consumption is modelled by focusing on three decisions. The first is whether to consume any alcoholic beverages. Setting aside the teetotalers, the second decision is whether to consume wine and the third choice is how much to consume. We model these decisions using a double-hurdle approach. Our econometric results indicate that the probability a man drinks wine increases if he is under age 65, has a high income and is a high school graduate. Heavy wine consumers are over age 65, are well educated, physically active, and have high incomes.