轮轴-辐条型自由贸易协定的产业区位效应——基于流动资本模型的分析

本文在流动资本模型的基础上分析了轮轴-辐条型自由贸易协定的产业区位效应。轮轴-辐条型FTA具有双层区位效应,即生产转移效应和轮轴效应。一方面它使制造业从非成员国转移到成员国;另一方面它可能使产业从辐条国转移到轮轴国。区位效应取决于轮轴-辐条体系的规模和贸易开放度。轮轴-辐条型FTA的区位效应最终可能导致国家之间产业发展不平等和贫富分化,发展中国家必须采取积极措施避免这种区位效应的不利影响。     

亚太区域内自由贸易协定的“轴心-辐条”格局解析

作者从"多米诺"效应引致"轴心-辐条"结构的形成过程出发,分析了轴心国家和辐条国家在此过程中的福利变化,并从轴心国家、二级轴心、辐条国家和格局外国家(地区)等视角详细分析了亚太区域内正在形成的自由贸易协定"轴心-辐条"格局,研究了"轴心-辐条"格局对亚太自由化进程的积极和消极影响,设计了一条将"轴心-辐条"格局发展成亚太自由贸易区的可能途径,以消除该格局对亚太自由化进程的负面影响。此外,该文提出了一套中国参与亚太区域内"轴心-辐条"格局的完整策略,包括确立轴心国家地位、增进与东盟及其成员的联系、加快与二级轴心建立自由贸易协定以及加强与中国台湾地区的经贸联系等具体的战略。     

亚太区域内自由贸易协定的“轴心-辐条”格局解析北大核心CSSCISSCI

作者从"多米诺"效应引致"轴心-辐条"结构的形成过程出发,分析了轴心国家和辐条国家在此过程中的福利变化,并从轴心国家、二级轴心、辐条国家和格局外国家(地区)等视角详细分析了亚太区域内正在形成的自由贸易协定"轴心-辐条"格局,研究了"轴心-辐条"格局对亚太自由化进程的积极和消极影响,设计了一条将"轴心-辐条"格局发展成亚太自由贸易区的可能途径,以消除该格局对亚太自由化进程的负面影响。此外,该文提出了一套中国参与亚太区域内"轴心-辐条"格局的完整策略,包括确立轴心国家地位、增进与东盟及其成员的联系、加快与二级轴心建立自由贸易协定以及加强与中国台湾地区的经贸联系等具体的战略。     

应对“意大利面条碗”效应——兼论东盟在东亚合作中的作用北大核心CSSCISSCI

伴随着东亚地区经济体迅速签署大量的FTA,导致东亚地区出现所谓的"意大利面条碗"效应。特别是东盟从自身利益出发,推动建立了"东盟+1"FTA网络,试图充当轮轴国,这一做法更加恶化了"意大利面条碗"效应。为了应对"意大利面条碗"效应,有必要在东亚地区推动建立大范围的FTA,目前看来更可行的办法是先加强东盟内部贸易便利化和能力建设,以期2015年东盟自贸区建成后能开始推动东亚地区实施统一原产地规则方面的贸易便利化措施。     

“一带一路”FTA网络国家地位测度及出口效应研究

使用社会网络分析法测度"一带一路"FTA网络国家地位,并基于1995—2018年跨国面板数据检验其对出口的影响。研究发现:考虑协定异质性条件下,当前"一带一路"沿线FTA网络"广度地位"较高的以波兰、捷克等中东欧国家为主,而"中介地位"排名最高的三个国家依次为新加坡、印度和埃及;沿线FTA网络中的国家地位提升对参与国出口促进效应显著,但"中介地位"比"广度地位"对出口的促进作用更大;沿线FTA网络国家地位提升,对中高技术制造国和资源型国家出口促进作用明显,但对低技术制造国出口影响不显著。     

东亚区域经济合作中的"轮轴--辐条"效应

本文通过分析东亚区域经济合作的现状以及东亚区域中的“轮轴-辐条”效应，探讨了东亚区域经济合作的道路，并得出了中国应积极参与东亚区域经济合作的结论。     

智利签订FTA的动因分析

通过签订自由贸易协定(FTA)推进一国或地区的经济贸易增长,已成为当今国际经贸发展的重要趋势,并且小国在 FTA 的签订中越来越活跃,本文对智利"FTA 大国"的成因进行分析,并对小国参与 FTA 提出相关建议。     

应对“意大利面条碗”效应——兼论东盟在东亚合作中的作用

伴随着东亚地区经济体迅速签署大量的FTA,导致东亚地区出现所谓的意大利面条碗效应。特别是东盟从自身利益出发,推动建立了东盟+1FTA网络,试图充当轮轴国,这一做法更加恶化了意大利面条碗效应。为了应对意大利面条碗效应,有必要在东亚地区推动建立大范围的FTA,目前看来更可行的办法是先加强东盟内部贸易便利化和能力建设,以期2015年东盟自贸区建成后能开始推动东亚地区实施统一原产地规则方面的贸易便利化措施。     

双重比较优势与竞争型FTA的获益者和受损者——CAFTA的启动与双方的利益分配

FTA(自由贸易区的简称)建立后,贸易利益如何在成员国间分配取决于各成员国的双重比较优势。在竞争型的南南FTA中,具有极端比较优势的国家利益将受损,而对具有中等比较优势国家将获益。从中国的对外贸易格局来看,其总的趋势是与东盟出现越来越大的贸易逆差。特别值得关注的是:在高新技术产品领域,东盟竟连续两年成为中国的头号进口国以及头号贸易逆差国。 CAFTA(中国东盟自由贸易区简称)的启动,对中国来说将主要带来贸易转移,将进一步导致优势产业在东盟的集聚,强化中国在高新技术领域与东盟的贸易逆差,从而使中国在国际生产链条的末端长期驻足,并导致利益损失。政府必须对此密切关注并采取相应的政策和战略。     

长江经济带与南亚贸易潜力研究

保证贸易畅通并构建以中国为轴心的利益、命运共同体是"一带一路"战略的内在涵义,长江经济带与南亚,前者是中国重要的经济区域,后者地处"一带"和"一路"的交汇处。本文运用贸易引力模型研究了2002-2014年长江经济带对南亚七国的出口贸易潜力。研究表明,南亚国家特别是印度对长江经济带具有巨大的出口潜力,应该发展区域经济共同体,降低关税及非关税壁垒,亦应提高金融风险防范合作。     

Explaining rising regionalism and failing multilateralism: consensus decision-making and expanding WTO membership

The beleaguered progress of the Doha Development Agenda of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) presents something of a puzzle for economic theory: if multilateralism is an effective forum for liberalisation (as it has been in the past), then why have the current round of talks faltered amid the proliferation of preferential trade agreements (PTAs)? This paper builds a ‘hub and spoke’ version of the Maggi (Am Econ Rev 89(1):190–213, 1999) model of trade negotiations to shows that the combination of the WTO single-undertaking and consensus decision-making principles with an expanded and more diverse membership can render multilateralism less desirable for hub countries than bilateralism. It is argued that these principles give spoke countries de facto veto power meaning that their threat point during WTO negotiations is a reversion to PTA negotiations between all parties. Accordingly, spoke countries with relatively less to gain from the WTO can use their veto power to extract gains from those that would benefit substantially. If an expanding WTO membership has increased the number of such countries, then the benefits of multilateralism versus regionalism from the perspective of hub counties may have been diminished to such an extent that they are no longer willing to wait for the conclusion of the Doha round before engaging in PTA negotiations.     

Hub-and-Spokes Free Trade Agreements in the Presence of Technology Spillovers: An Application to the Western Hemisphere

Using a comparative-static general equilibrium model in the context of the Western Hemisphere, this paper compares the economic effects of a “hub-and-spokes” type of bilateral trade configuration (with Chile being the hub) with those of a more comprehensive regional FTA (namely, the FTAA). The model is augmented to account for the possibility of technology spillovers and its effective assimilation among participating economies. In particular, absorptive capacity, governance factor, proximity and socio-institutional congruence conjointly determine an economy’s capacity to capture the technology that is transmitted from the developed spoke United States to other regions. JEL no. D58, F13, O33     

人民币国际化与上海国际金融中心互促发展的机理和渠道研究

本文从相关历史与国际经验角度,探讨了货币国际化与大国功能性金融中心发展的内在关联,重点研究了人民币国际化和上海国际金融中心建设之间互促发展可能具有的渠道和途径,并根据当前在推进人民币国际化过程中人民币金融循环相对缺失这一重要特征,研究了上海构建人民币金融循环枢纽以有效推动人民币区域化和国际化的主要方向和路径。     

Regional Trade Agreements in East Asia: Will They Be Sustainable?*

By assessing the sustainability of regional trade agreements (RTAs) for East Asia, we quantitatively evaluate the likely impact of proposed East Asian RTA strategies on the East Asian economies and the world economy with respect to consumption, production, volume of trade and terms of trade effects by applying a multi‐country and multi‐sector computable general equilibrium model. These strategies include: (i) the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA: a being‐left‐alone strategy); (ii) an ASEAN Hub RTA (a hub‐and‐spoke type of overlapping RTA strategy); (iii) the AFTA versus a China–Japan–Korea RTA (a duplicating or competing RTA strategy); and (iv) an ASEAN+3 RTA (an expansionary RTA strategy). We find that an expansionary ASEAN+3 RTA could be a sustainable policy option because the members’ gains would be significantly positive, with more equitably distributed gains between members than when using other strategies. The effect on world welfare would also be positive and the negative effect on nonmembers would not be very strong. More interestingly, if the East Asian countries cooperate with Pacific Basin countries to form an APEC‐level RTA, such as a free trade area of the Asia‐Pacific, the extension of the regional trade bloc might be considered a more desirable policy option than the proposed East Asian RTAs for East Asian economies, even though countries excluded from the free trade area of the Asia Pacific are worse off.     

中部地区的新地位、新定位与政策创新

一国内部不同区域的全局地位是动态演进的。当前,中部地区已经具备从发展支持区转变为基本经济区的条件。按照促进中部地区全面崛起以及建设成基本经济区的要求,需要在中部地区现有"三基地一枢纽"定位基础上,增加"五区"的内涵,即建成国内市场密集区、对外开放拓展区、创新驱动示范区、四化协调先行区和生态文明核心区。与此相应,促进中部地区崛起的指导思想、战略与政策需要创新。     

The Evolution and Reshaping of Globalization: A Perspective Based on the Development of Regional Trade Agreements

With the weakening role of the World Trade Organization multilateral trading system, the globalization pattern is moving toward regional economic integration. As a result, the number of regional trade agreements (RTAs) has rapidly increased. New trends in international economics and trade, such as the withdrawal of the US from the Trans‐Pacific Partnership and the trade disputes between the US and China, have revealed the intention of the developed countries represented by the US to reshape the direction of globalization. This paper combines the relevant research conclusions and current stylized facts to examine the evolution and reshaping of globalization. We find that: (i) countries have different attitudes toward the recent round of globalization, which are related to changes in the patterns of income distribution within countries caused by the last round of globalization; and (ii) regional economic development is an effective way to reshape globalization. The self‐strengthening effect of the hub country in the trade network has promoted global RTA expansion.     

The Location of Manufacturing Exporters in Africa: Empirical Evidence

Abstract: The costs of accessing and using a port/export hub should be high on the list of priorities for export promotion agencies in Africa. This conclusion emanates from this paper focusing on the geographical location of manufacturing export industries in South Africa. Here manufacturing export firms tend to be spatially concentrated with about 84 per cent of total manufacturing exports produced in only 6 per cent of magisterial districts. Distance from an export hub is negatively related to the density of manufactured exports. The largest volumes of manufactured exports are generated within 100 km of an export hub. For electronics, about 98 per cent of manufacturing takes place within 100 km of an export hub. Comparison over time showed that the number of locations from which manufacturing exports occur increased by 15 per cent over 1996–2004 and that manufacturing exports increased in the band between 200 and 400 km from the nearest hub.     

综合交通枢纽促进城市现代服务业空间集聚的对策研究——以上海虹桥综合交通枢纽为例

根据公共交通导向型的城市发展理论和增长极理论,综合交通枢纽往往成为经济活动的集聚区,对区域产业发展、特别是国际化大都市现代服务业的发展具有重要意义.文章根据法兰克福交通枢纽发展的经验和上海虹桥综合交通枢纽的总体规划设计,分析了虹桥综合交通枢纽未来的产业发展方向,并提出促进该地区现代服务业集聚的对策性建议.     

我国区域航空枢纽的构建战略研究——以南宁吴圩国际机场为例

区域航空枢纽在区域社会经济、交通运输的发展中起着重要的支撑作用。区域航空枢纽的构建战略制定是机场决策者重要的工作内容。运用内外部因素评价矩阵、SWOT矩阵和定量战略计划矩阵（QSPM）等战略管理工具,制定了南宁吴圩国际机场构建区域航空枢纽的发展战略,克服了传统定性分析的不足,消除了主观因素带来的影响。