The impact of foreign direct investment in China on employment adjustments in Taiwan: Evidence from matched employer–employee data

Using a unique matched employer–employee dataset on Taiwanese manufacturing, we examine the impact of foreign direct investment in China on domestic employment adjustments controlling for firm and worker heterogeneity as well as for potential endogeneity of firms’ expansion in China. Our findings suggest that workers employed at firms with higher levels of investment in China are more likely to leave the firm, compared with workers at firms with zero or lower levels of investment in China. We provide evidence that foreign expansion in China decreases worker employment security at parent companies, particularly for low-skilled workers. Employment adjustments through employer-to-employer transitions are found to be highly associated with wage losses, with the strongest wage effects for low-skilled workers who shift employment between industries. Moreover, we find no evidence that FDI in China contributes to skill upgrading at parent companies.     

The U.S.–China trade war: Tariff data and general equilibrium analysis

The current trade war between the United States and China is unprecedented in modern history. This study introduces a database of tariff increases resulting from the trade war and quantifies the impacts using the canonical GTAPinGAMS model calibrated to the recently released GTAP version 10 accounts. We find that the remaining tariff increases as of March 2020 after the phase one trade deal decrease welfare in China by 1.7% and welfare in the United States by 0.2%. Impacts on sectoral revenue are reported for both countries. China's exports to and imports from the United States are reduced by 52.3% and 49.3%. The trade flow between the United States and China will be diverted to their major trade partners resulting in higher welfare in those countries, including many Asian countries. The estimated impacts are robust to using alternative trade elasticities and are amplified in the absence of the phase one tariff reductions.     

Productivity analysis of IT capital stock: The USA–Japan comparison

The purpose of this paper is twofold: The first is to examine the information technology (IT) capital investments (including software) and capital stock of the USA and Japan, not merely in the 1990s but from the long-run historical viewpoint and compare the process of IT Revolution of the two countries, using the data from 1974 to 1998. The second is to check how those investments are justifiable, by calculating the marginal benefits and costs of IT related investments in the USA and Japan. We find that while the USA shows a tendency to overinvest in IT capital relative to non-IT capital throughout the observation period, the opposite is the case in Japan.     

The identification of liquidity effects in the EMS: Italy 1991–1992

We study the impact of liquidity shocks in Italy in the 1991–1992 period, when the lira belonged to the narrow ERM band with no exchange controls. We conduct our analysis by constructing (not simply assuming) predetermined measures of liquidity supply shocks, taking into account the institutional features of the money market and the reserve requirements' average computation system. We find that the supply of liquidity did significantly affect short-term interest rates; however, in contrast to earlier periods, most of the interest rate variations were attributable to foreign-exchange-related factors, as predicted by the asymmetric view of the ERM.     

The macroeconomic effects of the ECB’s evolving QE programme: a model-based analysis

This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s asset purchase programme in its initial version and subsequent modifications under the lens of a dynamic macroeconomic model, which includes assets of different types and maturity, and explicitly introduces asset purchases of long-term bonds (held by euro area and non-euro area residents) by the central bank. With imperfect substitutability between asset classes, portfolio rebalancing in the context of quantitative easing (QE) affects bond yields, stock prices, the exchange rate and the private sector’s saving decision. QE as announced in January 2015 generates 0.4% effective euro depreciation and raises real GDP in the euro area by 0.2% and prices by 0.3% by 2017 in the model. The subsequent extensions of the QE programme (extension in time and increase in volume) more than double the medium-term output and inflation effects according to the simulations.     

Building an Entrepreneurial Economy: The Case of Korea 1998–2005

Abstract

This paper examines how entrepreneurship takes place in an economy where traditional structural settings are not favorable to entrepreneurial activities. Specifically, it investigates the case of Korea during 1998–2005, when the national economy experienced fairly dramatic upsurge of start-ups and related changes. The paper argues that a national economy may achieve significant structural changes when diverse conditions are in place, including not only intentional efforts, e.g. governmental policies, but factors of serendipity triggering potential disruption to the economy, e.g. an external shock such as the Asian financial crisis in 1997. During the observation period, Korea went through notable changes in terms of entrepreneurship. Although limited, the Korean economy looks at possibilities of having small and medium-sized companies co-evolve with large ones such as chaebols.     

The interest rate–inflation relationship under an inflation targeting regime: The case of Turkey

This paper examines the relationship between nominal interest rates and the expected inflation rate for the Turkish economy between 2002 and 2009, a period when the inflation-targeting regime was implemented as monetary policy. We use the test of cointegrating rank with a trend-break (a method introduced by Inoue, 1999) and we also apply exogeneity tests. Empirical findings indicate that monetary policy rates depend on inflationary expectations; long-term interest rates are affected by monetary policy; and the weak form of the Fisher effect is valid. This evidence implies that monetary policy has actually influenced the real long-term interest rates; the inflation targeting regime pursued by the Central Bank of Turkey is reliable; and hence realized inflation has remained close to its targeted level.     

Exploring the effects of capital mobility on the saving–investment nexus: evidence from Icelandic historical data

We explore the effects of capital mobility on the relationship between saving and investment using historical data for Iceland. First, we analyse the saving–investment (S-I) correlation for the period of restricted capital mobility using data from 1960 and 1994. We then add a period of free capital mobility between 1994 and 2008 and estimate the correlation for the period 1960–2008. Finally, we extend our analysis to the 2008 to 2016 period, when capital controls were imposed in response to the crisis. Institutions matter: We find institutional changes, in particular, Iceland’s entry into the European Single Market in 1994, coincided with a fall in the long-run correlation between saving and investment. However, the correlation weakens further when we include the post-crisis regime of capital controls, suggesting a weaker relationship between savings and investment in this regime. We discuss the possible reasons for this pattern and also the implications of our findings for post-crisis policy in small open economies.     

The macroeconomic effects of banking crises: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1750–1938

This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of banking crises in the United Kingdom between 1750 and 1938. We construct a new annual chronology of banking crises, which we define as episodes of runs and panics combined with significant, geographically-dispersed failures and suspensions. Using a vector autoregression, we find that banking crises are associated with short, sharp and significant drops in economic growth. Using the narrative record to identify plausibly exogenous variation, we show that this finding is robust to potential endogeneity.     

The Japanese–U.S. trade balance and the yen: Evidence from industry data

While it is often assumed that a country's trade balance will improve in the long-run if its currency is allowed to depreciate, this is not necessarily the case for specific goods. In the short run, the opposite might even take place, as fixed quantities and rising import prices cause the trade balance to deteriorate. In this paper, we apply cointegration methodology to assess the short- and long-run impact of fluctuations in the yen–dollar real exchange rate on Japan's trade balance with the U.S. for 117 industries. We find that depreciation causes the trade balance to improve in the long-run for about one-third of Japanese industries. Most short-run effects are in the same direction, indicating a quick improvement in these industries’ trade balance, rather than a period of deterioration such as a “J-curve.”     

Not an ordinary bank but a great engine of state: The Bank of England and the British economy, 1694–1844

From its foundation as a private corporation in 1694, the Bank of England extended large amounts of credit to support the British private economy and to support an increasingly centralised British state. The Bank helped the British state reach a position of geopolitical and economic hegemony in the international economic order. In this paper, we deploy recalibrated financial data to analyse an evolving trajectory of connections between the British economy, the state, and the Bank of England. We show how these connections contributed to form an effective and efficient fiscal–naval state and promote the development of a system of financial intermediation for the economy. This symbiotic relationship became stronger after 1793. The evidence that we consider here shows that although the Bank was nominally a private institution and profits were paid to its shareholders, it was playing a public role well before Bagehot's doctrine.     

The Emergence of the Black Economic Research Center and The Review of Black Political Economy: 1969–1972

This essay discusses the legacy of Robert Browne in the founding of the Black Economic Research Center (BERC), The Review of Black Political Economy, and the Caucus of Black Economists and its evolvement into the National Economic Association. The launching of BERC occurred within a period of far-reaching social change and the Vietnam War era. During this time, Robert Browne also was a national leader of the Vietnam anti-war movement and one of the first public intellectuals to establish a link between the civil rights movement and the peace movement. An argument is developed that this background provided as much impetus to Robert Browne for the creation of BERC and The Review as did the black nationalist programs and conferences of that era. During his eleven year tenure as Director at BERC, he pioneered ground-breaking research on the status of black-owned land in the south; consulted with community development corporations, black-owned businesses and banks; and prompted innovations in modern black philanthropy through the establishment of the Twenty-First Century Foundation. The origin and justification for The Review of Black Political Economy and the early activities and meetings of the Caucus and NEA are emphasized. In addition, an effort is made to include an enumeration of the earliest contributors to BERC, the NEA, and The Review — many of whom have not been mentioned in previous retrospectives.     

Inequality of land tenure and revolutionary outcome: An economic analysis of China's land reform of 1946–1952

A paradoxical feature of China's land reform of 1946–1952 is that it was conducted far more radically in the north, where land tenure relations were far less unequal, than in the south where inequality of land tenure was distinctly more acute. That landlords could only be identified in south China was attributable to the sharply more active land rental market there, and the “single-cut” policy of defining the landlords narrowly as a rentier class. We attribute the predominance of an active land rental market in south China to three socioeconomic characteristics: 1) a sharply higher inequality in land distribution, 2) an organization of agriculture whose efficiency required the “unsupervised initiatives” of family labor, and 3) a distinctly higher proportion of “absentee landlords”. Our hypothesis of land rentals being the only variable distinguishing the landlords from the rich peasants and only in south China is strongly supported by empirical evidence.     

Modifications of the Balassa–Samuelson Model: The Effects of Balanced Growth and Capital Accumulation

In this paper modified versions of the Balassa–Samuelson model are developed. We stress the effects of balanced productivity growth and capital accumulation, which is often ignored or not fully understood in existing studies. Our theoretical analysis shows that these effects and the differential productivity growth effect can be presented in a unified framework. Empirical estimates using 1970–1990 sectoral data for the OECD show that our modified models are more suited to the data than the commonly used Balassa–Samuelson model. J. Japan. Int. Econ., March 2002, 16(1) pp. 31–49. Faculty of Economics, Nagasaki University, 4-2-1 Katafuchi, Nagasaki 850-8506, Japan. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F36; F41; F43.     

Voluntary disclosure of intellectual capital items in?roadshows and investor conferences: an empirical analysis of DAX30-companies

We analyze firms’ voluntary disclosure of intellectual capital in a setting of presentations to analysts and investors. Firms use presentations to analysts and investors as an additional means of reporting. Due to lesser restrictions of this kind of reporting and also due to the private channel disclosure setting of such presentations, firms are able to highlight certain issues which they think to be important for interpretation and forecasting of firm success. In such a setting we can assess the benefit-cost relation underlying these disclosure decisions. The sample consists of German DAX30 firms, which are analyzed for the years 2001, 2003, 2005, and 2007, resulting in a total of 271 observations. We calculate quantitative and qualitative disclosure indices and also analyze whether time, industry and type of presentation influence intellectual capital disclosure. Findings show that customer capital, human capital, and process capital are reported more often than other intellectual capital categories. Industry and type of presentation are strongly related to disclosure indices. There is also a weak significant relation between time and disclosure index. Overall, firms tend to prefer qualitative voluntary disclosure of intellectual capital and only carefully disclose quantitative data. This suggests that the benefit-cost relation of quantitative reporting is negative.     

The use of input–output tables to forecast the effects of demand stimulation state policy

The paper discusses the possibility of evaluating the effectiveness of the government demand stimulation for industrial products based on the input–output model. The study aims to simulate the impact of public policies based on a simple calculation using open data on the input–output balance.     

An eye for an eye? The trade and price effects of China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports

We analyze the trade and price effects of China's retaliatory tariffs on imports from the United States in the period from January 2017 to May 2019. We apply the difference-in-differences approach to the up-to-date China Customs data on imports disaggregated by eight-digit HS product category and source country. We find large reductions in the value and quantity of imports from the US and an almost complete tariff pass-through onto import prices. These results remain robust to extensive changes in the specification and in data sample and to a variety of placebo tests using processing imports or exempted products that were originally included in the tariff lists but removed before implementation. We also find that the trade and price effects are heterogeneous across products, differing either in the end-use or in the ownership types of the importing firm. Similar to recent findings in the US (Amiti et al., 2019, Amiti et al., 2020), our estimates suggest limited terms-of-trade gain due to China's tariff hikes.     

The price of poverty: The association between childhood poverty and adult income and education in Sweden, 1947–2015

Childhood poverty increases the likelihood of being poor as an adult. We know relatively little about this persistence of poverty in the past and whether it changed as modern welfare societies developed. This study both analyses determinants of childhood poverty and assesses the association between childhood poverty and economic outcomes in adulthood for men and women who grew up in southern Sweden, and who were followed to adulthood regardless of where in Sweden they resided. Poverty is measured in relative terms. Being raised by a single mother, foreign origin, and being raised in a context where the household head was not employed were important risk factors for childhood poverty. Growing up in relative poverty was in turn associated with low income and education in adulthood. Both the persistence and intensity of childhood poverty mattered, and so did the age during which poverty was experienced. Patterns were similar for men and women, and there was no consistent change over time as the Swedish welfare state expanded.