MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES AND STOCK PRICES

Investigations into business cycles have found money supply to be a lead variable to stock prices. However, some would argue that the stock market, being efficient, anticipates money supply changes and therefore, stock prices are lead variables to money supply changes. Recent developments in time series methods have facilitated the testing of these relationships through identifying bivariate and multivariate autoregressive models. However, in many cases, the results using different procedures contradict themselves and are in conflict with theoretical reasonings. In this paper the causal relationship is tested between fiscal and monetary policies and stock prices using Canadian data and bivariate andmultivariate autoregressive models.     

AUDITOR CHOICE AND AUDIT FEE DETERMINANTS

An analytical model predicts that cross-sectionally (1) the marginal cost of auditor quality is inversely related to the strength of client companies' internal control. (2) In the short run, clients with stronger control, lower business risk, or less complex audits choose higher quality auditors; but whether they pay higher audit fees is indeterminate. (3) In the long run, client companies have both lower quality auditors and weaker controls as risk or complexity increase, so less precise financial reporting is expected from them. (4) The effects of risk and complexity on fees are indeterminate, because the price and quantity components of fees tend to vary inversely as risk or complexity change. The predictions are consistent with findings that have been viewed as empirical anomalies.     

RISK AND HEDGING BEHAVIOR: THE ROLE AND DETERMINANTS OF LATENT HETEROGENEITY

The notion of heterogeneous behavior is well grounded in economic theory. Recently it has been shown in a hedging context that the influence of risk attitudes and risk perceptions varies for different segments using a generalized mixture regression model. Here, using recently developed individual risk attitude measurement techniques and experimental and accounting data from investors with differing decision environments, we examine the determinants of heterogeneity in hedging behavior in a concomitant mixture regression framework. Allowing for latent heterogeneity, we find that risk attitudes and risk perceptions do not influence behavior uniformly and that the heterogeneity is influenced by manager's focus on shareholder value and the firm's capital structure.     

FISCAL DEFICITS AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Although fiscal adjustment was urged on developing countriesduring the 1980s to lead them out of economic malaise, considerableuncertainty remains about the relations between fiscal policyand macroeconomic performance. To illustrate how financial markets,private spending, and the external sector react to fiscal policies,the behavior of holdings of money and public debt, private consumptionand investment, the trade balance, and the real exchange rateis modeled for a sample of ten developing countries. The studiesfind strong evidence that over the medium term, money financingof the deficit leads to higher inflation, while debt financingleads to higher real interest rates or increased repressionof financial markets, with the fiscal gains coming at increasinglyunfavorable terms. Consumers respond differently to conventionaltaxes, unconventional taxes (through inflation or interest andcredit controls), and debt financing, in ways that make fiscaladjustment the most effective means of increasing national saving.Private investment—but not private consumption—issensitive to the real interest rate, which rises under domesticborrowing to finance the deficit. Contrary to the popular presumption,in some countries private investment increases when public investmentdecreases. There is strong evidence that fiscal deficits spillover into external deficits, leading to appreciation of thereal exchange rate. Fiscal deficits and growth are self-reinforcing:good fiscal management preserves access to foreign lending andavoids the crowding out of private investment, while growthstabilizes the budget and improves the fiscal position. Thevirtuous circle of growth and good fiscal management is oneof the strongest arguments for a policy of low and stable fiscaldeficits.      

THE DEMAND FOR WATER IN RURAL AREAS: DETERMINANTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Improving the adequacy and quality of water supplies is a priorityfor rural development in developing countries. So far, the strategiesof governments and international donors for tackling the problemhave been supply-driven; the fundamental importance of demandin the selection of appropriate policies has been virtuallyignored. The realization that effective policy and planningmust take into account what the rural clients want and are preparedto pay for was the impetus for the World Bank's multicountrystudy of households' demand for improved water services. This article summarizes the findings of the 1987–90 investigationof determinants of rural demand in selected regions of LatinAmerica, Africa, and South Asia. The research team used bothdirect (contingent valuation) surveys and indirect (revealedpreference) methods to estimate households' willingness to payfor different levels and types of improvement. The methodologyproduced some illuminating insights into how to decide whatlevel of service is appropriate for a particular community andhow the improved services should be paid for. The team identifiedfour broad categories of village situations, with appropriatepolicies ranging from the provision of house connections atfull cost at one extreme, to no improvement in traditional suppliesat the other extreme.      

日本"泡沫经济"时期的货币与财政政策及其教训

日本80年代后期的"泡沫经济"引起了各国经济理论界与实际部门的重视.本文通过对日本"泡沫经济"形成、发展以及破裂三个时期货币与财政政策的考察,认为"泡沫经济"与宏观经济政策的运用与协调失误有很大关系.在80年代中期,过分强调内外经济协调,导致日元在短时期内急剧升值,为了防止由此而引发的经济衰退,在国内政策上又单纯依赖货币政策,财政政策过于保守;在"泡沫经济"形成与发展过程中,日本银行恪守传统的货币政策目标,在一般物价水平稳定的情况下,忽视了资产价格的上涨及其对经济的影响;在"泡沫"破裂之后,货币政策几乎无所作为,而单纯依靠扩张性财政政策的效果有限.