Is There Catch‐Up Growth? Evidence from Three Continents

The ability to correct deficiencies in early childhood malnutrition, what is known as catch‐up growth, has widespread consequences for economic and social development. While clinical evidence of catch‐up has been observed, less clear is the ability to correct for chronic malnutrition found in impoverished environments in the absence of extensive and focused interventions. This paper investigates whether nutritional status at early age affects nutritional status a few years later among children, using panel data from China, South Africa and Nicaragua. The key research question is the extent to which state dependence in linear growth exists among young children, and what family and community level factors mediate state dependency. The answer to this question is crucial for public policy due to the long‐term economic consequences of poor childhood nutrition. Results show strong but not perfect persistence in nutritional status across all countries, indicating that catch‐up growth is possible though unobserved household behaviours tend to worsen the possibility of catch‐up growth. Public policy that can influence these behaviours, especially when children are under 24 months old, can significantly alter nutrition outcomes in South Africa and Nicaragua.     

When to haggle,when to hold firm? Lessons from the used‐car retail market

Though haggling has been the conventional way for auto retailers to sell cars, the last two decades have witnessed the systematic adoption of no‐haggle prices by many large dealerships, including the largest new‐ and used‐car dealership chains. This paper develops a structural empirical model to estimate sellers' profits under posted price and haggling, and investigates how market conditions affect sellers' optimal pricing formats. The model incorporates a simple class of bargaining mechanisms into a standard random‐coefficient discrete‐choice model. With the extension, the product‐level demand system is estimated using data with only list prices, and the unobserved price discounts are also recovered in the estimation. The counterfactual experiments yield a few interesting findings. First, dealers' adopted pricing formats seem superior to the alternative ones. Second, dealers enjoying larger market power through vertical differentiation and carrying a large number of models are more likely to have posted price as their optimal pricing format.     

What Do Wages Add to the Health‐Employment Nexus? Evidence from Older European Workers

The role of wages in the health‐employment nexus can be important for designing employment policies aimed at older workers with health limitations. We, therefore, estimate the direct effect of health on employment and hours worked and its indirect effect that is mediated through wages using individual‐level panel data from SHARE. The endogeneity of self‐reported health is controlled for by instrumenting it with severe health conditions in a correlated random effects model. For men, we find that the direct effects of health deterioration, as measured by a reduction in health from the 75th to the 50th percentile of the health distribution, are about a 20% point lower employment probability and about 171 fewer hours worked per year. The indirect health effects through wages work in the opposite directions as health positively affects wages and wages negatively affect employment and hours worked. The total effects of this health deterioration amount to a 12% point lower employment probability and 95 fewer hours worked per year. In particular our finding of a large direct health effect on employment suggests an instrumental role for policy aimed at accommodating workers with health limitations to keep them employed at older ages.     

Do Liberalising Reforms Harm the Environment? Evidence from the Post‐Communist Transition

Whether or not economic freedom and capitalism are associated with better or worse environmental performance gives rise to a heated political debate. This article sheds empirical light on the debate by examining the association between economic and political freedom on the one hand and environmental performance on the other. Estimating the effects of economic freedom and democracy on four environmental measures since 1993 across 27 formerly communist countries shows that liberalising the size of the public sector is associated with less environmental damage, although only in autocracies. The consequences of regulatory activity, market openness and the rule of law are more mixed.     

Do rental agents discriminate against minority customers? Evidence from the 2000 Housing Discrimination Study

This study examines the incidence and causes of housing discrimination in qualitative treatment by rental agents, using national audit data from the 2000 Housing Discrimination Study. Using the fixed-effects logit method described by [Review of Economic Studies 47(1) (1980) 225–238], we control for unobservable factors that are shared by audit teammates and conduct hypothesis tests for the incidence and causes of discrimination. We find evidence that rental housing discrimination has declined since 1989 but continues to exist in several important types of housing agent behavior. We also find evidence that this discrimination is caused by agents’ own prejudice and by their response to the prejudice of white clients.     

Are Related‐Party Sales Value‐Adding or Value‐Destroying? Evidence from China

Prior literature provides mixed and relatively little evidence on the economic consequences of related‐party transactions. We examine a hitherto underexplored issue of whether transactions among firms within the same business group increase or reduce firm value. Using a large sample of Chinese listed firms, we find that related‐party sales increase firm value. However, this value enhancement disappears for firms with (i) large percentage of parent directors, (ii) high government ownership, or (iii) tax avoidance incentives that often couple with management's rent extraction activities. Although we find that intragroup sales improve firm value in general, we also find that corporate insiders use intragroup sales to deprive value from minority shareholders. Overall, our findings highlight the interplay between ownership structure and tax avoidance incentives in determining the economic consequences of related‐party transactions.     

What drives firms' commitment to fighting corruption? Evidence from the UK

The recent leak of the FinCEN files has highlighted the widespread presence of corruption in developing and developed economies, including the UK. Accordingly, this study aims to investigate the factors that drive companies to implement measures for preventing corruption in developed countries using FTSE 350 nonfinancial firms. Specifically, the research examines the influence of corporate social responsibility (CSR) commitments, board structure, and shareholding structure on adopting strategies, policies, and procedures aimed at countering corruption. Drawing upon agency, stakeholder, and legitimacy theories, our empirical evidence supports that CSR commitments and board independence positively influence firms' engagement in anticorruption measures. Conversely, institutional and managerial shareholdings are found to have a negative association with firms' efforts to combat corruption. In addition, the study shows that the effect of board characteristics became more pronounced following the enactment of the UK Bribery Act 2010, indicating risk-averse behavior. Various models, including cross-sectional and two-stage least squares (2SLS), are employed to analyze the data. Our findings have significant implications for understanding the complex relationship between CSR, corporate governance, and the ethical infrastructure of organizations. Ultimately, our results provide valuable insights for policymakers, companies, and other stakeholders in developing effective strategies, policies, and procedures to combat corruption activities.     

Is the division of labour limited by the extent of the market? Evidence from French cities

This paper provides supportive evidence to the notion that the division of labour is limited by the extent of the (local) market. We first propose a theoretical model. Its main prediction is that scarce specialists occupations are over-represented in large cities. Using census data for French cities, we find strong empirical support for this prediction.     

Can you pay employees to innovate? Evidence from the Canadian private sector

Using 7 years of data representing the Canadian private sector, we estimate the effects of the major components of compensation on a rarely studied form of employee performance: innovation. Although there are some limitations inherent in the data, our results indicate the complex motivation required for consistent innovation success. Surprisingly, we find that fixed pay (salary) and individual performance pay have no effect on innovation, while variable group pay and indirect pay (employee benefits) have a positive effect. In other words, our results suggest that you can pay employees to innovate, provided that you select the right compensation incentives.     

Do the carry trades respond to geopolitical risks? Evidence from BRICS countries

This paper aims to analyze the implications of geopolitical risks on the return and volatility of carry trade transactions in the context of BRICS countries for the period 2006–2020. Fixed effects regressions considering the sample countries as a single portfolio document that geopolitical risks are correlated with volatility, while the results are inconclusive for returns. The non-parametric time-varying coefficients panel data estimations further indicate that the effect of geopolitical risks on carry trade volatility is amplified during the Global Financial Crisis and the post-2016 episode. Moving to the disaggregated data, the time-varying robust Granger causality test of Rossi and Wang (2019) show that geopolitical risks have a significant in-sample predictive power for both carry trade return and volatility during a myriad of sub-periods, which can not be captured by standard constant parameter techniques in the presence of instabilities. Overall, our empirical results suggest that the exposure to geopolitical risks should be taken into account by global investors for risk diversification purposes when entering carry trade positions in BRICS countries.     

Do Low‐Wage Workers React Less to Longer Unemployment Benefits? Quasi‐Experimental Evidence*

The fact that unemployed workers have different abilities to smooth consumption entails heterogeneous responses to extended unemployment benefits. Our empirical exercise explores a quasi‐experimental setting generated by an increase in the benefits entitlement period. The results suggest a hump‐shape response of unemployment duration over the one‐year pre‐unemployment wage distribution; individuals at the bottom and top of the wage distribution reacted less than those in the interquartile range. This behaviour of job searchers is consistent with labour supply models with unemployment insurance and savings. It questions the optimality of very long entitlement periods to target the unemployment experiences of low‐wage workers.     

What Are the Lessons from Post‐Communist Transitions?

This paper provides a review of the literature on post‐communist transitions. It outlines the debate between the proponents of rapid reforms and the advocates of neo‐institutionalism. Providing evidence from the transitional countries, it suggests an alternative approach, explicitly acknowledging the impact of two categories of constraints on reforms.     

Wages and Ageing: Is There Evidence for the ‘Inverse‐U’ Profile?*

How individual wages change with time is one of the crucial determinants of labour market decisions including the timing of retirement. The focus of this paper is the relationship between age and wages with special attention given to individuals nearing retirement. The analysis is presented in a comparative context for Britain and Germany looking at two longitudinal data sets (BHPS and SOEP, respectively) for the years 1995–2004. We show the importance of cohort effects and selection out of employment which determine the downward‐sloping part of the ‘inverse‐U’ profile observed in cross‐sections. There is little evidence that wages fall with age.     

Is the Quarter of Birth Endogenous? New Evidence from Taiwan,the US,and Indonesia

Recent evidence based on US data suggests that the quarter or month of birth (QOB or MOB) may be endogenous, since family characteristics can explain up to 50% of the effects of QOB on the education outcomes and earnings of adult males. In this study, based on a sample of one million Taiwanese siblings, we examine university admission at age 18 as our outcome variable and find that at school entry, the oldest (September born) children are 31–38% more likely to be admitted into university at age 18 than the youngest (August born) children, indicating strong seasonality in university admission. The inclusion of controls for family background is found to explain only a small portion of these effects, particularly for males. Given that such results are at odds with the recent US evidence, we revisit the US Census data and find that when racial differences are properly controlled for in the estimation, even a rich set of family characteristics is capable of explaining only a minor proportion of the QOB effects. Furthermore, using data from the US and Indonesia, we find that seasonal temperature variation is unlikely to be an important contributor to the US‐Taiwan disparity. Our findings imply that the validity of using QOB or MOB as an instrumental variable may be dependent on the population being studied and the sample selected.     

Is Improving Access to University Enough? Socio‐Economic Gaps in the Earnings of English Graduates

Much research and policy attention has been on socio‐economic gaps in participation at university, but less attention has been paid to socio‐economic gaps in graduates’ earnings. This paper addresses this shortfall using tax and student loan administrative data to investigate the variation in earnings of English graduates by socio‐economic background. We find that graduates from higher income families (with median income of around 77,000) have average earnings which are 20% higher than those from lower income families (with median income of around £26,000). Once we condition on institution and subject choices, this premium roughly halves, to around 10%. The premium grows with age and is larger for men, in particular for men at the most selective universities. We estimate the extent to which different institutions and subjects appear to deliver good earnings for relatively less well off students, highlighting the strong performance of medicine, economics, law, business, engineering, technology and computer science, as well as the prominent London‐based universities.     

Could unemployment go back to the post‐war heyday?

• ? The current ‘low’ rate of unemployment looks less impressive when compared with the 2–3% rates averaged in the 1950s and 1960s. But both then and now share a common driver of low joblessness – pay growth falling unusually short of productivity gains. While the chances of this continuing look stretching, a return to genuine full employment is not completely implausible .
• ? Why was unemployment so low in the early post‐war period? Given the current uncertainty over how far joblessness can sustainably drop and how this affects monetary policy, our analysis provides useful insights for the situation today.
• ? Several explanations have been mooted. A political commitment to full employment is one, although aspiration alone cannot provide a cause. And demand management using fiscal policy is hard to square with the period's modest budget deficits. Meanwhile, booming post‐war investment and trade and shortages of labour fail to explain why low joblessness did not quickly trigger rapid rises in pay and inflation.
• ? The cause of very low unemployment appears to have sat with wage restraint relative to productivity gains. Unlike most of the last 70 years, real pay growth consistently fell short of productivity rises in the 1950s and part of the 1960s, cutting the cost of workers and ensuring a low ‘equilibrium’ rate of unemployment.
• ? This explanation has parallels with the present day. Since 2010, productivity growth has outstripped real pay rises to an extent not seen since the 1950s. We do not expect this pattern to continue – our forecasts show real pay running slightly ahead of productivity growth over the next five years. But if the factors holding back pay were to persist, alongside a catch‐up in UK productivity, a return to a 1950s/60s‐style jobless rate is possible, if the MPC did not take fright at further declines in unemployment.

     

Does the Macroeconomy Predict UK Asset Returns in a Nonlinear Fashion? Comprehensive Out‐of‐Sample Evidence

We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of linear and nonlinear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR) and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models and a range of linear specifications including models with GARCH type specifications. Results demonstrate UK asset returns require nonlinear dynamics to be modelled with strong evidence in favour of Markov switching frameworks. Our results appear robust to the choice of sample period, changes in loss functions and to the methodology employed to test for equal predictive accuracy. The key findings extend to a similar sample of US data.     

Is the nonlinear hedge of options more effective?—Evidence from the SSE 50 ETF options in China

The linear hedging of the options ignores the characteristic of the nonlinear change of option prices with the underlying asset. This paper establishes the nonlinear hedging strategy followed the study by Hull and White (2017) to investigate the effectiveness on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) 50 ETF options. The results show that the nonlinear hedge of the Chinese option market is less effective than the U.S option market because of the short history and the lower activity of the Chinese option market. The effect of nonlinear hedging strategy is better than the linear hedging strategy for calls in China. But for puts, the effect of the nonlinear hedging strategy is not as significant as it for calls. The difference in the trading volume between calls and puts and the high short-selling cost in the Chinese market are the main factors leading to the difference in hedge effectiveness. This paper suggests that the stock exchange could reduce margin standard of 50 ETF securities lending, promote a more flexible shorting mechanism, and accelerate the process of index options listed, so as to achieve hedging the risk of options more directly and efficiently.     

Is there Complete,Partial, or No Recovery from Childhood Malnutrition? – Empirical Evidence from Indonesia*

This article uses a dynamic panel data model to identify the impact of early nutritional deficiencies on individuals’ health status in later ages. We find that poor nutrition at young ages causes some, but not severe retardation in the growth of future height indicating partial recovery from chronic malnourishment. The results also indicate that – younger children, stunted children, and children who live in communities with six or more health posts exhibit larger recovery. The estimation strategy used here is especially attractive as it relies on weaker stochastic assumptions compared to earlier work in the literature.     

Can Government Policies Induce Earnings Management Behavior? ‐Evidence from Chinese Public Listed Firms

Earnings management behavior is a concern of standard setters, regulators, and investors. This study predicts that government policies can induce earnings management behavior. Based on a sample of 8,765 firm years ranging from 2002 to 2009, this study uses two methods to detect the effect of government policies on managers' earnings management behavior. One is the earnings distribution method developed by Burgstahler and Dichev (1997), and the other is the modified Jones model proposed by DeFond and Jiambalvo (1994). We find that policies issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) can induce managers of listed firms to engage in earnings management to either avoid negative consequences (e.g., delisting) or to meet requirements (e.g., refinancing). So, although the purpose of government is to protect investors as well as to promote the healthy development of the securities market, its policies are a double‐edged sword: if there is no strict and effective control mechanism, government policies can harm investors and disturb the normal order of the securities market.