–Nonrecourse Mortgage and Housing Price Boom,Bust, and Rebound

This paper investigates the impact of –nonrecourse vs. recourse mortgages on housing price dynamics in major U.S. metropolitan statistical areas for the period from 2000 to 2013. We find evidence that –nonrecourse states experience faster price growth during the boom period (2000–2006), a sharper price drop during the bust period (2006–2009) and faster price recovery in the rebound period after a crisis (2009–2013). Moreover, the volatility of housing prices is higher in nonrecourse states than in recourse states, particularly during the rebound period.     

Housing Regulation,Externalities and Residential Property Prices

This article examines the effects of quantity restrictions on residential property prices in the presence of neighborhood externalities. A Brigham Young University policy limiting students’ location choices provides a natural experiment for studying the externality and quantity restriction effects on property values. A flexible hedonic model is used to control for nonstudent population spatial sorting by type. The estimates show significant positive quantity restriction and student agglomeration effects on student housing prices. There are also significant differences in the negative student externality across nonstudent neighborhoods, with the quantity restriction reinforcing (offsetting) the student price premium (discount) at the boundary.     

Refinancing Trends among Lower Income and Minority Homeowners during the Housing Boom and Bust

This article examines trends in mortgage refinancing activity during the housing boom and bust, with a focus on homeowners in lower income and minority market (LIMM) areas. Unlike any other period in recent history, during the boom LIMM homeowners refinanced their mortgages more frequently than non‐LIMM homeowners. This occurred primarily among borrowers for whom the refinance option was not in‐the‐money, and it is likely attributable to the concurrent growth of subprime, cash‐out refinancing. Following the 2007 mortgage market collapse, however, LIMM homeowners were less likely to refinance. This can be explained in part by systematic differences in home equity levels across borrowers.     

The Boom,the Bust and the Future of Homeownership

This article investigates the boom and bust in U.S. homeownership rates over the 2000–2010 period. Using individual‐level census data, we first estimate 204 homeownership regressions stratified by household age (21, 22, …, 89) and survey year (2000, 2005 and 2009). Shift‐share methods confirm that changes in the model coefficients that reflect household attitudes, lending standards and other market conditions—but not population socioeconomics—were the primary driver of the boom and bust in homeownership over the decade. This pattern holds for nearly all age groups and is more pronounced for recent movers. Results also suggest that homeownership rates may have come close to bottoming out in early 2013 at 65% after falling roughly four percentage points from their peak in 2006. This suggests little lasting effect of the grand homeownership policy experiment of recent decades.     

The Effect of Mortgage Rate Buydowns on Housing Prices:

The model developed in this paper analyzes the effect of builder-financed FHA-VA mortgage subsidies or buydowns on the price of housing. Hedonic pricing equations are estimated for a locationally and qualitatively uniform sample of new tract development homes. The explanatory variables are vectors of physical and financial characteristics. The latter include a continuous variable for discount points paid by builders which is indicative of the magnitude of prepaid finance charges. The results indicate that a substantial portion of mortgage subsidy costs are shifted to buyers in the form of inflated housing prices.     

Major Developments in Residential Mortgage and Housing Markets Since the Hunt Commission

A number of important changes have been made to the mortgage finance system since the Hunt Commission filed its report, and the economic environment has been altered substantially. This paper examines shifts in the relative importance of public and private institutions in the residential mortgage markets during the past decade, within the context of Hunt Commission recommendations. Changes in the cyclical sensitivity of mortgage and housing activity, and the implications of rapid inflation for the growth of these markets, also are considered.     

Residential Mortgage Markets and the Cost of Mortgage Funds

Early federal housing finance policy appears to have been largely directed at making mortgages more marketable. The creation of FHA, FNMA and FHLMC were designed to homogenize the mortgage instrument and to develop a secondary market for it. Apparently because of a lack of demand for marketability by investors, extensive trading of mortgages has not developed. Nonetheless, the fantastic growth in mortgage pools (as well as the unanticipated growth in FNMA holdings) has increased competition in the supplying of some intermediation functions (mortgage bankers have greatly expanded originations and servicing), has improved interregional flows of mortgage funds, and has given mortgage borrowers a greater access to capital markets generally. The principal result has been a decline in the mortgage rate relative to other market rates, although the inflation-triggered explosion in the demand for mortgage funds in recent years appears to be offsetting the impact of the growth in federal credit broadly defined.     

Wages,Housing Prices and Commutes

Whereas economic theory suggests that, all else equal, workers should be willing to accept disamenities such as higher housing costs and longer commutes only if they are compensated with higher wages, little is known about the magnitude of these compensating differentials. In this article, I address this gap in the literature by estimating an empirical model of the relationship between wages, housing prices and commutes that addresses the simultaneous determination of these variables. The results from the empirical models suggest that the wage premia associated with high housing costs and long commutes are substantial. Furthermore, results from baseline models reveal that estimates of these compensating differentials are seriously biased if endogeneity is not addressed.     

Deed Types, House Prices and Mortgage Interest Rates

When houses are sold they come with a deed attached that spells out the legal guarantees on good title. Some deeds give clues about the characteristics of the seller or the house. Using a 37,043-observation house price hedonic with a Bayesian spatial error model, we find the type of deed attached to a housing sale can have a dramatic correlation with the sale price. Ten deed types command a discount, and one commands a premium relative to warranty deeds. Mortgage rates for sheriff's deeds and foreclosure deeds are lower than for warranty deeds, indicating more sophisticated buyers.     

Immigration,Capital Flows and Housing Prices

Research on immigration and real estate has found that immigrants lower house prices in immigrant destination neighborhoods. In this article, we find that this latter result is not globally true. Rather, we show that immigrants can raise neighborhood house prices, at least in the case of the wealthy immigrants that we study. We exploit a surprise suspension and subsequent closure of a popular investor immigration program in Canada to use a difference‐in‐differences methodology comparing wealthy immigrant destination census tracts to nondestination tracts. We find that the unexpected suspension of the program had a negative impact on house prices of 1.7–2.6% in the neighborhoods and market segments most favored by the investor immigrants. This leads to an approximate lower bound on the effect of capital inflows of 5%.     

Explaining Intermetropolitan Variation in Housing Prices, Rents and Land Prices

In attempting to explain why housing prices, rents and urban land prices vary so dramatically between U.S. metropolitan areas, a simple model of a metropolitan housing market is presented identifying three interrelated submarkets. Estimating equations for rent, housing prices and urban land prices are identified and estimated using two-stage least squares. The empirical results provide strong support for the theoretical model concerning how these three submarkets interact. The results also suggest that household income and construction costs are the most important factors causing housing prices, rents and land prices to vary between metropolitan areas.     

FHA Mortgage Discount Points, House Prices and Consumer Behavior

The allocation of FHA discount points between buyers and sellers has recently been the subject of empirical investigation. The research reported here examines this relationship in more detail. Regression equations were estimated for separate price categories of housing using dummy variables for the number of discount points being charged. Separate equations were also estimated for periods when points were rising and when they were falling. The results essentially are that sellers attempt to shift all of the discount points to buyers and frequently are successful. However, in certain situations the points are shared between buyers and seller.     

Housing Price Dynamics,Mortgage Credit and Reverse Mortgage Demand: Theory and Empirical Evidence

This article presents some theoretical and empirical approaches for identifying interactions among fundamental economic variables that determine housing prices. Using home equity conversion mortgage (HECM) loan‐level data, this study quantifies the major risks of reverse mortgages and shows that higher housing prices induce higher demand for reverse mortgages among elderly homeowners. Senior citizens rationally hold pessimistic expectations about future housing price appreciation and lock in their home‐equity gains by obtaining reverse mortgages, which in turn led to the substantial HECM growth prior to the financial crisis of 2008. A novel simulation also forecasts HECM loans under various economic scenarios. From a mortgage credit perspective, these findings generate several policy implications for the implementation of “HECM 3.0.”     

Price Expectations,Distressed Mortgage Markets and the Housing Wealth Effect

Using a unique combination of regulatory and survey microdata, we examine the importance of the life cycle theory of consumption in estimating housing wealth effects for the Irish mortgage market. Since the recent financial crisis, this market has experienced substantial house price declines and negative equity. Thus, house price expectations are likely to be important in influencing housing wealth effects. We find a positive correlation between consumption and changes in housing wealth among our sample of mortgaged Irish households. Furthermore, we find that this positive association only exists when housing wealth changes are perceived to be of a permanent nature.     

房地产抵押的风险及防范

根据抵押的概念，介绍了房地产抵押的风险及应对措施。     

Expected and Actual Effects of Housing Allowances on Housing Prices

Most analysts and policy makers expected fullscale housing allowance programs to substantially disturb local housing markets, causing housing prices tb increase sharply. This paper reviews conjectures about expected price effects, summarizes evidence from the Housing Assistance Supply Experiment, and explains why the program did not engender the expected price inflation.     

Internet Search Behavior,Liquidity and Prices in the Housing Market

We employ detailed internet search data to examine price and liquidity dynamics of the Dutch housing market. We show that the number of clicks on properties listed online proxies demand and the number of listed properties proxies supply. From this internet search behavior, we create a market tightness indicator and we find that this indicator Granger causes changes in both house prices and housing market liquidity. The results of a panel VAR suggest that a demand shock results in a temporary increase in liquidity and a permanent increase in prices in urban areas. This is in accordance with search and matching models.     

Mortgage Credit Availability, Housing Starts and the Integration of Mortgage and Capital Markets: New Evidence Using Linear Feedback

This paper employs linear feedback measures to examine the relationship between housing starts and the availability of mortgage credit. Estimates are obtained using monthly data with samples ending with May 1978 and beginning with June 1978. The results indicate that mortgage credit availability contributed significantly to short-run cycles in housing starts in the earlier sample. Such feedback is considerably smaller, however, in the later sample. The results suggest the housing finance sector has become integrated with the overall capital market as the result of the deregulation of thrift deposit rates and the development of the securitized mortgage market.     

Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market

The paper uses quarterly indexes of existing single-family home prices estimated with microdata on properties that sold more than once to estimate excess returns to investment in owner-occupied housing. Housing prices and excess returns are estimated over the period 1970:1 to 1986:3 for Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, San Francisco. Using time-series cross-section regressions we test for the forecastability of prices and excess returns using a number of independent variables. Price changes in one year tend to continue for more than one year in the same direction. The ratio of construction costs to price, changes in adult population and increases in real per capita income all are positively related to excess returns or price changes over the subsequent year. The results add weight to the argument that the market for single-family homes is inefficient.