Forecasting and Futurology

The Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research has published forecasts of the Australian economy since the late 1960s. These forecasts (usually 12 to 18 months ahead) have been dominated by short-term macroeconomic factors. Compared with when the IAESR commenced its forecasting, there are now many forecasters who concentrate on the performance of the Australian economy over the short term. There is, however, a dearth of regular commentary which focuses on policy options for the medium to long term. This article is the first of many which will aim to fill this perceived gap. In so doing we shall adopt a wider concept of forecasting called futurology. In this approach, many constraints of traditional forecasting are relaxed. In particular, we allow responses by economic agents to policy changes. This will suggest plausible situations in which different outcomes are possible. Our purpose is not to suggest what the future will be, but what it might be under different scenarios. Here, we put together some necessary ingredients to facilitate futurology. We review recent Australian economic performance, consider the implications of meeting a goal of five per cent unemployment by the year 2000 and outline some important influences on likely future growth. We suggest that new growth theory may provide a policy framework to achieve both high growth and low unemployment, noting the constraints imposed by increasing globalisation. In subsequent articles, we shall employ these ingredients to write out plausible timepaths setting out how desirable end-points (including the reduction of unemployment) may be achieved.     

基于最优组合预测模型的港口集装箱吞吐量预测

根据港口集装箱吞吐量非线性增长等特点,建立了三次指数平滑预测模型、灰色系统预测模型及BP神经网络预测模型等单项预测模型。鉴于单项预测模型的局限性,提出了以测试数据的预测误差绝对值加权和最小为最优化准则的最优组合预测模型,采用线性规划的方法确定最优组合的权系数。最后,给出一个实例进行应用和分析。     

Forecasting welding technology

The case for multinational is described. The experience of the CMEA countries in the field is original from the point of view of (a) a general procedure of the forecasters' interaction developed in the permanent system in the followup of trends and the forecasting of welding science and technology; (b) complex use of different kinds of information (expert estimation, patents, publications, etc.); (c) the relation to decision-making in international technological policy.     

Forecasting broadband provision

The provision of broadband telecommunication services in the United States is spatially heterogeneous. Previous studies find that urban locales typically have a larger selection of access platforms and providers when compared to rural or remote areas. Therefore, the ability to forecast broadband provision is important to understanding regional trends in telecommunications competition and availability. This paper provides a comparative analysis of cross-sectional and spatial econometric forecasts of broadband provision, with results suggesting that the integration of spatially referenced demand-side variables significantly improve the accuracy of short and mid-range forecasts.     

On Forecasting Discontinuities

Too much has been written about forecasting trends via “envelope curves.” To plot a straight line on log-paper is a no-brainer. The special phenomenology of phase changes, catastrophes, or “crashes,” and their key evolutionary role is the subject of this article. There is no unique way of forecasting such events, but one indicator is an apparent inconsistency between two or more extrapolations with each other. Alternatively, a catastrophe may be signalled when a trend extrapolation encounters a natural limit. A number of possible discontinuity scenarios are sketched, although overall, the article laments the lack of theorization in forecasting disconuities.     

Forecasting first births

This study is concerned with one aspect of the family cycle, namely, the transition from young married to young married with small children. The focus is on developing models to forecast entries into this latter stage for the purpose of marketing research. "Using ordinary least squares, forecasting models were estimated for (1) total number of first births, (2) number of white first births, and (3) number of nonwhite first births." Models are estimated for both the United States and California using data from official sources.     

马尔柯夫预测模型及其实证分析

经济预测的方法有许多，其中马尔柯夫预测法是应用概率中马尔柯夫链的理论和方法来研究分析有关经济数据的变化规律，并由此预测未来变化趋势的一种重要方法，这种方法已在市场预测分析和市场管理决策中得到广泛的应用。本文结合具体安全重点分析了如何应用马氏链进行市场占有率和期望利润的预测。     

A New Economy Forecasting Method Based on Data Barycentre Forecasting Method

A new and useful method of technology economics, parameter estimation method, was presented in light of the stability of gravity center of object in this paper. This method could deal with the fitting and forecasting of economy volume and could greatly decrease the errors of the fitting and forecasting results. Moreover, the strict hypothetical conditions in least squares method were not necessary in the method presented in this paper, which overcame the shortcomings of least squares method and expanded the application of data barycentre method. Application to the steel consumption volume forecasting was presented in this paper. It was shown that the result of fitting and forecasting was satisfactory. From the comparison between data barycentre forecasting method and least squares method, we could conclude that the fitting and forecasting results using data barycentre method were more stable than those of using least squares regression forecasting method, and the computation of data barycentre forecasting method was simpler than that of least squares method. As a result, the data barycentre method was convenient to use in technical economy.     

Forecasting Australian marriage rates

"The paper discusses the problem of modelling demographic variables for the purpose of forecasting. Two empirical model selection procedures are applied to suggest final form forecasting equations for Australian marriage rates. The suggested models are then assessed by comparing their post-sample forecast performance with that of univariate ARMA-type models of marriage rates which are regarded as approximations to marriage rate final equation models. In this instance the ARMA models are preferred for forecasting purposes. The properties of the ARMA model forecasts are then examined and the modelling strategy is contrasted with the regression method used by Withers."     

Forecasting Canadian mortgage rates

Mortgage rates are one of the important drivers of the housing market. While there is a literature looking at the pass-through effect from Central Bank rates to mortgage rates, there is less known about how useful Central Bank rates are for forecasting mortgage rates. This article uses a selection of models (ARIMA, ARIMAX, BATS, state space error, trend seasonal (ETS), Holt Winter, random walk, simple exponential smoothing (SES), OLS and VAR) to forecast Canadian 5-year conventional mortgage rates. Based on RMSE, regression-based approaches like ARIMAX or OLS that use Central Bank rates to forecast mortgage rates are preferred when it comes to forecasting Canadian mortgage rates 6 or 12 months into the future, respectively.     

Short Term Econometric Forecasting and Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonal behaviour in the variables of an econometric model is usually handled in one of two ways—either the data are adjusted prior to estimation, or seasonal binary variables are included in the specification and estimation of the model. Although the literature on the subject is extensive, it is not obvious which of these procedures is best for forecasting. This paper compares the forecasting ability of a small model of the Australian economy for each of the alternative approaches to seasonal adjustment.     

灰色预测在产品价格预测中的应用

人类社会进入21世纪后，企业间面临更加激烈的市场竞争，价格则是这场竞争中决定企业竞争成败及目标能否实现的重要因素，企业要在竞争中立于不败之地，必须及时掌握市场产品价格动态，并对市场价格的变化趋势做出科学的预测，本借助灰色预测理论，阐述了市场产品价格预测的方法。     

Forecasting and planning in an incoherent context

What follows concerning the predicament of forecasts and planning is subject to the same criticisms and constraints I apply to them and their context. My observations are also forecasts: stories based on arbitrary and fragmentary images of social “reality” and my words share the same dubious status as words per se that I shall describe later. But all of us are sinking in this ontological and epistemological swamp: To paraphrase the Tao Te Ching, those who know can not say: those who say do not know. So be it.     

Forecasting MBT technologies using DEA and LR

First, this paper explores Main Battle Tank (MBT) data set with different statistical methods in order to decide the most appropriate variables as reliable yardsticks in applying technology forecasting (TF) using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) technique. It then applies TF using DEA method to forecast MBT technologies. This article attempts to predict technology development year of MBT commercialised from 1941 to 1994. This article presents the processes of TFDEA in detail and identifies some issues to search for appropriate input and output variables to forecast MBT technologies. The purpose of this study is to address some issues and identify an appropriate data to predict future trends of MBT technologies when using TFDEA and multiple linear regression tools. Finally, the study provides an understanding of the technological advances being sought in MBT technologies and information for use in making decisions regarding development strategy.     

Forecasting inflation in China

This paper forecasts inflation in China over a 12-month horizon. The analysis runs 15 alternative models and finds that only those considering many predictors via a principal component display a better relative forecasting performance than the univariate benchmark.     

风险溢价、预期损失与预测贷款损失准备金

在信贷市场完全信息的假设下,以贷款风险溢价为基础计提的贷款损失准备金能够完全覆盖贷款预期损失.而在经济或行业处于繁荣或上升时期,银行扩张贷款总量、增加长期贷款、放松贷款标准的行为,实际上低估了贷款预期损失.应用马尔科夫链预测理论构建的预测贷款准备金模型,克服了预期现金流折现法、动态准备金法和压力测试准备金法存在的实施难度大、监管制约等缺陷,能够保持银行经营的稳定以及客观地反映盈利状况,可以作为改革贷款准备金政策的参考.     

Independent random matching

Random matching models with a continuum population are widely used in economics to study environments where agents interact in small coalitions. This paper provides foundations to such models. In particular, the paper establishes an existence result for random matchings that are universal in the sense that certain desirable properties are satisfied for any assignment of types to agents. The result applies to infinitely many types of agents, thus covering random matching models which are currently used in the literature without a foundation. Furthermore, the paper provides conditions guaranteeing uniqueness of random matching.