Performance of Pairs Trading Strategy in the U.S. REIT Market

We examine the performance of pairs trading in the U.S. REIT market compared with that in the U.S. general stock market over the period 1987 to 2008. The results suggest that the REIT market provided superior profit opportunities for this strategy over common stocks after accounting for the effect of the bid‐ask bounce between 1993 and 2000. This was likely because of the unique characteristics of REITs, which permitted the selection of good pairs of close substitutes and the structural changes that occurred in 1993 in the REIT market. The superior trading profits in REITs disappear after 2000.     

Markov Switching Dynamics in REIT Returns: Univariate and Multivariate Evidence on Forecasting Performance

We document the presence of Markov switching regimes in expected returns, variances and the implied reward‐to‐risk ratio of real estate investment trust (REIT) returns and compare them to properties of stocks and bonds. Our evidence suggests that regime switching techniques are more successful over the period 1972–2008 than other time‐series models are. When the analysis is extended to a multivariate setting in which REIT, stock and bond returns are modeled jointly, we find that the data call for the specification of four separate regimes. These result from the absence of synchronicity among the regimes that characterize univariate REIT, stock and bond returns.     

The Cross Section of Expected REIT Returns

In this study, we examine the cross-sectional determinants of expected REIT returns. We examine both the pre- and post-1990 periods, since the structure of the REIT market changed substantially around 1990. The determinants of expected returns differ between the two subperiods. In the pre-1990 subperiod, momentum, size, turnover and analyst coverage predict REIT returns. In the post-1990 period, momentum is the dominant predictor of REIT returns. Given the strength of the momentum effect in the post-1990 period, we examine it in great detail. For the whole period, and for the post-1990 period where the momentum profit is strongest, our evidence is generally consistent with the studies on common stocks other than REITs. The only striking exception is that we find that momentum is stronger for the larger REITs rather than for the smaller REITs. In our multiple regressions that include the characteristics as well as interactions between past returns and firm characteristics, the turnover–momentum interaction effect provides the most significant results. More specifically, momentum effects are stronger for more liquid REITs.     

REIT Stock Market Volatility and Expected Returns

We study the relation between REIT stock volatility and future returns, focusing particularly on the financial crisis period of 2007–2009. There is ongoing debate about whether stock volatility can forecast future returns. Our findings suggest that REIT‐implied volatility is negatively related to contemporaneous stock returns; there is a significant positive relationship between REIT implied volatility and future stock volatility; and there is a significant negative relation between REIT implied volatility and future stock returns. Lastly, we develop trading rules based on REIT implied volatility to test whether these relationships are exploitable. The result suggests a potentially profitable trading strategy.     

REITs, IPO Waves and Long-Run Performance

The real estate investment trust (REIT) industry has undergone three waves of initial public offerings (IPOs) since 1980. In this article we examine these waves within the context of the general IPO wave literature. We note that the unique nature of REITs may render them more transparent than other stocks, and that this may affect their IPO performance. Specifically we document the initial and long-run performance of equity REIT IPOs during and after each wave, and we then examine which of the general IPO clustering and pricing theories best fits that performance data. We find evidence of much smaller initial returns than is typically found for non-REIT IPOs. We also find no evidence of the long-run negative abnormal performance for REITs that is normally found for other stocks. Our findings support the idea that the Capital Demand Hypothesis best describes the REIT IPO market, although we also find some weak evidence in favor of the Information Asymmetry Hypothesis. We find evidence against the Investor Sentiment Hypothesis.     

Institutional Investors' Preferences for REIT Stocks

This article investigates the determinants of real estate investment trusts (REIT) portfolio investment and institutional REIT ownership using multivariate Tobit regressions. We contend that many institutional investors take larger positions in more liquid assets like REIT stocks, as compared with private real estate equities, because of liquidity considerations. Consistent with this contention, we find that liquidity constraints are significantly related to REIT portfolio investment by institutional investors. We also find that institutional investors have different preferences for REIT stocks than do other investors; they generally prefer larger, more liquid REIT stocks.     

The Consequences of REIT Index Membership for Return Patterns

The impact of stock market index membership on Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) stock returns is unclear. Returns may become more like those of other indexed stocks and less like those of their underlying properties. Taking advantage of the inclusion of REITs in major S&P indexes starting in 2001, we find that shared index membership significantly increases the correlation between REIT returns. However, index membership also enhances the link between REIT returns and the underlying real estate, consistent with improved pricing efficiency.     

Liquidity, Return and Order-Flow Linkages Between REITs and the Stock Market

This article represents the first exploration of liquidity and order flow spillovers across New York Stock Exchange stocks and real estate investment trusts (REITs). Impulse response functions and Granger causality tests indicate the existence of persistent liquidity spillovers running from REITs to non-REITs. Specifically, REIT liquidity indicators are forecastable from non-REIT ones, at both daily and monthly horizons. I also provide evidence of a liquidity premium inherent in REIT returns. While REIT prices appear to be set efficiently in that neither REIT nor non-REIT order flows forecast REIT returns, I find that order flows and returns in the stock market negatively forecast REIT order flows. This result is consistent with the notion that real estate markets are viewed as substitute investments for the stock market, which causes down-moves in the stock market to increase money flows to the REIT market.     

Market Microstructure and Real Estate Returns

This paper examines the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) market microstruc-ture and its relationship to stock returns. When compared with the general stock market, REIT stocks tend to have a lower level of institutional investor participation and are followed by fewer security analysts. In addition, REIT stocks that have a higher percentage of institutional investors or are followed by more security analysts tend to perform better than other REIT stocks. Our results seem to confirm Jensen's ( 1993 , p. 868) proposition that ownership structure (that is, who owns the firm's securities) affects the value of the firm. Our findings also have implications about the well documented phenomenon that the financial performance of Commingled Real Estate Funds (CREFs) is better than that of REITs.     

Risk and Return on Real Estate: Evidence from Equity REITs

We analyze monthly returns on an equally weighted index of eighteen to twenty-three equity (real property) real estate investment trusts (REITs) that were traded on major stock exchanges over the 1973–87 period. We employ a multifactor Arbitrage Pricing Model using prespecified macroeconomic factors. We also test whether equity REIT returns are related to changes in the discount on closed-end stock funds, which seems plausible given the closed-end nature of REITs.
Three factors, and the percentage change in the discount on closed-end stock funds, consistently drive equity REIT returns: unexpected inflation and changes in the risk and term structures of interest rates. The impacts of these variables on equity REIT returns is around 60% of the impacts on corporate stock returns generally. As expected, the impacts are greater for more heavily levered REITs than for less levered REITs. Real estate, at least as measured by the return performance of equity REITs, is less risky than stocks generally, but does not offer a superior risk-adjusted return and is not a hedge against unexpected inflation.     

Does A Firm's Entry or Exit Affect Competitors’ Value? Evidence from the REIT Industry

We analyze 483 entry and 439 exit events of publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) and find that changes in the number of REITs in the market affect rival REITs’ stock performance. We also partition the sample by the modes of entries and exits as well as by REIT asset type in order to disentangle alternative explanations. Overall, our evidence indicates that the supply effect still matters for stock prices even after considering signaling and price pressure explanations.     

REIT Stock Price Volatility and the Effects of Leverage

This article sheds light on several puzzling empirical observations. We examine the volatility implications of equity Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) stock returns over the sample period from January 1985 through October 2012. We find a negative “leverage effect” in the pre‐ and post‐Greenspan era, but not during the Greenspan era (circa 1994–2006). We argue that the positive elasticity of variance with respect to the value of equity during the Greenspan era can be explained by a decline in the spread between the yield on commercial mortgages and 10‐year Treasuries, which triggered a wealth transfer from REIT equity holders to REIT debt holders. We also argue that the declining commercial‐mortgage‐10‐year‐Treasury yield spread during the Greenspan era allowed REITs to take on far more risk than most people realized. We then document that average REIT stock return volatility increased significantly in the 2007–2010 period in the midst of a historic decline in REIT stock prices. The results have significant implications for the good deal of interest and debate in the media over the status of REITs and whether equity REITs have become excessively risky relative to the returns they generate.     

Price Signaling and Return Chasing: International Evidence from Maturing REIT Markets

This article examines the liquidity of international real estate securities across 10 markets over the period 1990–2015. We apply and compare results for four different measures of liquidity, and find that while liquidity has increased consistently, wide variations still exist across markets, with the United States and Japan in the lead. Our results also suggest that the introduction of local REIT regimes did not have any pervasive effects on stock liquidity. When we study the relationship between liquidity and returns, we document new and consistent evidence for international return chasing behavior, whose pattern is a function of local market efficiency, listed real estate market maturity and stock ownership dispersion. The introduction of REIT regimes seems to weaken the importance of extra performance over and above general equity returns as investors tend to allocate funds to real estate securities within real estate rather than equity portfolios.     

Option Trading and REIT Returns

This article examines the relation between option trading volume and real estate investment trust (REIT) market performance. Specifically, we find that option volume increases are followed by decreases in returns. Furthermore, the portion of option volume that is orthogonal to REIT characteristics drives the observed return predictability relation, thereby suggesting that the return predictability of option trading is (at least partially) attributable to information‐based explanations. Finally, consistent with informed traders favoring option market activities due to short‐sale costs and/or constraints, we find option based return predictability is more evident within REITs than non‐REITs, even though firms within this industry are generally viewed as informationally transparent.     

Stock market surveillance and market performance: The case of Taiwan

In this paper we investigate the effect of warning announcements on the price behaviour of stocks. We also study the effects of various corrective treatments (trading halts, call trading and 100% payment/delivery with order) on the performance of stocks in the Taiwan stock market. It is found that warning announcements serve to improve the performance of stocks, except in the case of consecutive warnings. Generally speaking, the corrective measures taken after the consecutive warnings are able to reduce the volatility, the abnormal returns and the excess liquidity of the stocks.The authors are Professors from the National Sun Yat-sen University, and the Securities and Exchange Commission respectively.     

Rationale behind IPO Underpricing: Evidence from Asian REIT IPOs

This article examines the rationale behind IPO underpricing using a sample of REIT IPOs in Asia. Although the IPOs registered an average initial return of 3.08%, the issuers were able to sell the IPO shares above their fundamental values by timing the listings in periods when existing REIT stocks are traded at a premium to their net asset values (NAV). An IPO could therefore be underpriced and yet produce a net gain for the issuer. The issuers’ net gain from IPO is, however, negatively related to long‐run performance of REIT IPOs.     

Using Experimental and Neurological Data to Gain a Deeper Understanding of Realization Utility Theory

Starting with the premise that realization utility theory helps explain trading behavior, this study combines a carefully crafted experimental design with functional magnetic resonance imaging technology to offer a more inclusive examination of factors that affect REIT trading behavior beyond whether a REIT is simply trading up or down. We add to the nascent field of neurological real estate by finding that local gains/loss domains are more relevant than are global gain/loss considerations, financial skewness is a significant determinant of trading behavior, and that performance inside the REIT market influences how hard subjects think when performing tasks outside the market.     

Changes in REIT Structure and Stock Performance: Evidence from the Monday Stock Anomaly

It is well documented that REITs in the 1990s experienced significant changes in their structure and attracted greater institutional participation. This article finds that REIT stocks with higher institutional holdings perform better on Monday than REITs with lower institutional holdings during the 1990s, but not in the 1980s. Furthermore, REITs that went public in the 1990s are the ones associated with the shift in the Monday return pattern. Our study supports the claim that the change in REIT structure and the increase in institutional participation in the REIT market in the 1990s make REIT stocks behave more like other equities in the stock market.     

Can Fund Managers Select Outperforming REITs? Examining Fund Holdings and Trades

Despite at least six empirical studies published since 2000 designed to assess fund managers’ Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)‐selection ability, their skill remains in question. Unlike previous studies, we examine fund holdings and trades of REITs to answer this question. This approach allows us to explicitly account for portfolio rebalancing that alters REIT‐characteristic weights of fund portfolios. Results show that fund managers, after controlling for property type, size and momentum, generated significant positive alpha with their securities‐selection ability. To understand the sources of such ability, we examine whether fund managers who followed certain trading strategies outperformed relative to other managers. The potential trading strategies are based on public information related to geographic concentration, net‐asset‐value‐to‐price ratios, income and appreciation styles and leverage of the underlying REITs. Comparative and regression analyses show that none of the strategies fully explains why fund managers were able to select REITs that outperformed. We surmise that the outperformance mainly derives from the endemic abilities of managers to uniquely process REIT‐specific information and generate private valuation beliefs that lead to profitable investment decisions.     

Real Estate Investment Trusts, Small Stocks and Bid-ask Spreads

This study examines the liquidity of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), as measured by their bid-ask spread. We find that REIT spreads have increased over the period 1986–1990, are inversely related to market capitalization, and are similar in magnitude to spreads on other stocks of comparable size. Analysis of variance tests indicate that REIT spreads are similar across equity, mortgage and hybrid asset types. Multivariate regression results indicate that market capitalization is the primary determinant of REIT bid-ask spreads, and spreads are larger for National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) REITs than for New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) REITs. The regression results also indicate that spreads are lower for equity REITs than for mortgage or hybrid REITs, and are inversely related to the fraction of the REIT's shares held by institutional investors. The similarity between REIT spreads and those of other common stocks holds in both bull and bear real estate markets and suggests that, from a liquidity perspective, REITs are similar to other common stocks.