Cross country maize market linkages in Africa: integration and price transmission across local and global markets

In order to study short‐run price shock propagation, we model twenty seven Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) domestic maize markets within a Global Vector Autoregression framework. The main purpose is to fully embed multilateral trade flows as a way to better structure local price transmission dynamics and interdependencies, and get a more comprehensive picture of food price shocks propagation. We found significant between‐country market contagion and prompt regional price shock propagation when trade connection exists. Yet, the integration of SSA domestic maize markets within the continent and with global markets remains generally weak. Furthermore, under regular market conditions, most local price series appear to be more responsive to regional neighbors than to global shocks.     

Will China Become a Major Force in World Food Markets?

From the perspective of China's trading partners, few policy issues are as important as China's emergence onto world agricultural markets. In this essay, we argue that if China is to become a modern developed country, a massive structural transformation of China's agricultural sector must occur. We offer a forward-looking vision of China's food economy and its links with the world in the 21st century. We believe that gains from specialization when China moves to a country with specialized family farms will be huge compared to the returns that have resulted from decollectivization. Following a structural revolution in China's agricultural sector, China will become a major force in world food markets. This transformation will be characterized by land reform, a massive shift of labor out of agriculture, expanded farm size, a significant change in regional cropping patterns, more interprovincial trade, and greater international trade. This structural transformation will occur as long as there is strong economic and political pressure to raise agricultural labor productivity, liberalize markets, boost the rule of law, and increase per capita farm incomes relative to urban incomes.     

The integration of energy and agricultural markets

This article addresses the evolving links between energy and agricultural markets. Prior to 2005, there was little correlation between energy and agricultural commodity prices. In 2006–2008, with the ethanol boom in the United States, there emerged a strong link between crude oil, gasoline, and corn prices. There was little link between ethanol and corn. However, in late 2008 and 2009, the markets changed as ethanol production came under severe economic pressure and 2 billion out of 12 billion gallons of capacity shut down. During this period ethanol became priced more on corn, as the breakeven corn price helped drive the ethanol market. This article explores the drivers in these markets as well as other major issues facing the corn ethanol industry in the United States such as the blend wall. The article concludes with a review of prospects of a future cellulosic biofuels industry.     

Determining Opportunities for U.S. Exports of Consumer-Oriented Foods to African Regional Markets

Abstract

This study examines the level of trade between the U.S. and Africa for consumer-oriented agricultural products during the 1990s. To achieve this objective, we propose six congruent regional African markets and examine patterns of U.S. trade with Africa on consumer-oriented agricultural products. The reason for such groupings is to identify trade flow differences and similarities between the U. S. and each of these regional groups. The results shed light on the extent to which U.S. exporters of consumer food products are capitalizing on the emerging markets of Africa. The graphing technique used in the study, in combination with trend stability measures for the six proposed congruent regional African markets, introduce a method for identifying market opportunity.     

Translocality on the real estate market: A new extended approach

Growing levels of socio-economic development around the world have induced globalisation processes that generally diminish the role of local communities and local processes. However, the intensification of global processes has led to an unexpected turn towards locality. This process is referred to as glocalisation. Globalisation leads to the generalisation of locality (universalisation), and glocalisation processes localise globality (indigenisation). Globalisation and glocalisation are integrated through translocality which supports evaluations of the co-existence of both processes. This study proposes a general concept of translocality (TR) and a methodology for measuring translocality (MTR). In this approach, translocality reflects the degree of tension/adaptation between globalisation and glocalisation. The results of the study indicate that translocal processes on regional markets in Poland proceed gradually, and that they are accompanied by the emergence of convergence clubs of translocal regions and the progressing inter-regional stratification in translocality levels.     

How financial investment distorts food prices: evidence from U.S. grain markets

Convergence between commodity futures prices and the underlying physical assets at each contract's expiration date is a pivotal condition for the market's functioning. Between 2005 and 2010, convergence failed for several U.S. grain markets. This article presents a price pressure‐augmented commodity storage model that links the scale of nonconvergence to financial investment channeled through indices, which are traded in commodity futures markets. The model is empirically tested, using Markov regime‐switching regression analysis. Regression results strongly support the model's predicted link between index investment and the extent of nonconvergence for three grains traded at the Chicago Board of Trade: wheat, corn, and soybeans.     

Commodity price bubbles and macroeconomics: evidence from the Chinese agricultural markets

This article investigates the links between commodity price bubbles and macroeconomic factors, with an application to the agricultural commodity markets in China from 2006 to 2014. Price bubbles are identified using a newly developed, recursive right‐tailed unit root test. A Zero‐inflated Poisson model is used to analyze the factors contributing to bubbles. Results show that (a) there were speculative bubbles in most Chinese agricultural commodity futures markets during the sample period, though their presence was infrequent; (b) economic growth, money supply, and inflation have positive effects on bubble occurrences, while interest rates have a negative effect; and (c) among all macroeconomic factors considered, economic growth and money supply have the greatest impact in triggering bubbles. Our findings shed new light on the nature and formation of bubbles in the Chinese agricultural commodity markets.     

Product Development Strategy in the Danish Agricultural Complex

A study of the Danish foods industry shows that producers of food products have built up and maintain development of end-user products in interaction with customers in distant sophisticated markets. Concurrently, the Danish agro-industrial complex has been singled out in other studies as a paradigmatic example of how crucial a sophisticated home demand is for the development of an industrial complex. The apparent contradiction arises from the fact that companies interact in two networks: The global industrial network links various functions which again are each part of a local network in which the functions produce and utilize sticky and fast-changing information about production and markets respectively. It is precisely by not interacting with home market end-user demand, but rather by deriving a home market business-to-business demand from changing end-user markets that the Danish agro-industrial complex has avoided being insulated. The managerial implication is that a company in search of partners for joint development in global agro-industrial networks can realize a competitive advantage by applying a market view that is euclidean upstream and equidistant downstream.     

The Canadian Beef and Pork Sectors: New Found Relevance of Live Market Information

The structure of price transmission both vertically (between links in the market channel) and horizontally (between market areas) for beef and pork in Canada is examined. The analysis of vertical price transmission indicates that farmgate prices lead retail prices. The hypothesized relationship between retail and farmgate prices is that the farmgate demand curve is shifted by wholesaler anticipation of the retail price changes. Such a situation would place greater importance on the live markets since prices determined in these markets would eventually be reflected in the retail market. The results have further implications for the determination of price margins and related policy issues.     

Social networks and small business performance in West African border regions

This paper studies the links between economic performance and social networks in West Africa. Using data collected on 358 small-scale traders in five border markets, we show that social networks can be simultaneously a resource which positively contributes to labour market outcomes and a social burden that has a negative economic impact. Testing the effect of social networks between small traders and three categories of actors, we find that the most well-connected actors are also the most successful in terms of monthly profit. The effects of social networks are, however, dependent on the type of persons with whom traders are connected. We show that support received from state representatives and politicians is converted into economic performance, while the impact of law enforcement officers on the monthly profits of traders is not significant. We also find that interacting with traditional religious leaders has a negative effect on economic performance. Our work has two implications: Firstly, collecting data on social networks remains challenging due to endogeneity. Secondly, network-enhancing policies should aim at improving both the internal connectivity of economic actors at the local level and their external connectivity with the rest of the world.     

Applying cointegration and error correction to measure trade linkages: maize prices in the United States and Mexico

The impact of U.S.‐grown maize on Mexican markets is a subject of heated debate, and is complicated by limited substitution between white and yellow maize as well as regional price differences within Mexico. This article improves on previous analyses using a detailed data set of white maize prices reported weekly in 11 states across Mexico from 1998 through 2005. Using cointegration analysis and the error‐correction model, we find that prices between the United States and Mexico do not share a common long‐run relationship. Within Mexico, prices in Michoacán and Oaxaca are only weakly related with prices in neighboring states, whereas prices in Sinaloa and Jalisco exert considerable influence on prices elsewhere in Mexico. We conclude that, despite North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), white maize prices in Mexico are determined by local conditions including particularly the degree of integration to other regions within Mexico.     

The politics of markets: Farmer–trader relations under neoliberalism in Punjab,India

This article asks how local traders or middlemen continue to thrive in the agricultural markets of liberalized India. It studies this by focusing on the shifting politics of the relation between farmers and commission agents (arhtias) in post‐harvest wholesale markets in Ludhiana district, Punjab. It uses the framework of political analysis of markets towards this, paying close attention to the role of the state and the nature of interlinked markets. Drawing on intensive primary fieldwork, the article argues that the power of the arhtias is constituted differently across different commodities and in relation to different agrarian classes. At the same time, the state, notwithstanding its changing priorities, and the diversification of large farmers into the commission agent business have been crucial to their persistence in the wholesale grain markets.     

Agrarian Change under Globalization: Markets and Insecurity in Turkish Agriculture

This paper argues that deepening commodification in Turkish agriculture has changed the lives of farmers in significant ways. Global circuits have swept away the accustomed networks of information, production and marketing which had been largely established and maintained by comprehensive governmental support policies. New institutions have come into the picture establishing the links between small producers and larger markets. With state policy strengthening the domination of the market, prices and demand patterns fluctuate widely leaving small producers vulnerable to market forces and raising the level of risk and insecurity. This situation brings about a rapid de‐ruralization of the population in most regions of the country. In the fertile coastal strip of the southern and western provinces, however, commercial opportunities introduced by global circuits have led to a thriving market in products, land, and labour. Farming of vegetables and fruits for domestic and European markets dominate agricultural production. Seasonal employment, in tourism and in labour‐intensive crops, supplement household incomes, permitting the rural population to remain in the countryside.     

Small-Ruminant Marketing in Southwest Nigeria

This paper describes the structure of the small-ruminant trade in southwest Nigeria, analyses the factors determining the price of animals, and examines the relationship of prices between markets. Animals imported from the north dominate the sheep and goat trades, and supply and prices are highly seasonal. However, multiple regression shows animal prices to be largely predictable in terms of the characteristics of the animal (breed, sex and live-weight) and the market in which it is sold (location and month of sale). Prices are relatively closely correlated between markets over time, and price relationships between markets reflect the respective structures of the trade in northern and southern animals. Price margins between markets reflect the level of traders' commission and storage costs in addition to the direct costs of transport. The study concludes that there is no evidence for market inefficiency or segregation, and that there is considerable market potential for increased local production of sheep and goats. In policy terms, the market's efficiency implies that government involvement beyond its present, limited facilitative role would not be justified.     

Food Aid, Food Prices, and Producer Disincentives in Ethiopia

Although the short-term aims of food aid are well conceived, strong concerns have been voiced regarding the long-term impacts of such aid on incentives for agricultural producers in recipient countries. This article examines the statistical link between food aid shipments and food prices in Ethiopia over the period 1996–2006. Monthly data from three markets and three commodities are used to estimate a system of seemingly unrelated regression models for food prices. Results indicate that previous year food aid shipments reduce prices in all producer and consumer markets. These effects, however, appear to be limited to the set of internationally traded commodities that are domestically marketed. A recursive regression procedure is used to identify the food aid threshold at which a negative aid effect emerges. Food aid shipments that constitute less than 10% of domestic production appear to be benign, but shipments above this level show signs of being disruptive to local markets. We use a simple policy simulation to argue that production-sensitive targeting, e.g., conditioning food aid on local food production, would help to circumvent disincentive effects.     

苏北小城镇可持续发展障碍性因素的综合分析及耦合力的构建

运用系统思想和地理学综合分析方法，指出苏北小城镇发展迟缓是多种障碍性因素的耦合作用，从转变发展观念、进行制度创新、发展乡村工业、建设市场、发展小交通、优化硬环境及做好城镇规划等方面提出了因应对策体系；结合地方比较优势，确定发展主导力；依据现有基础。围绕主导核心力，构建辅助分力；抓住机遇。通过地方行政整合。实现多因素在具体时空的立体交叉与动态互动，形成因应耦合力，以全方位推动小城镇发展。促进苏北大开发。     

What drives stock market integration? An analysis using agribusiness stocks

This article explores the drivers of regional stock market integration with a focus on the agribusiness sector across relevant regional trade blocs around the world. We implement panel cointegration models to analyze the stock indices of agribusiness firms in the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), European Union (EU), Asia‐Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Based on the literature on market integration and stock return pricing, we identify nine possible determinants of stock market integration, which we separate into three categories: individual market performance, macroeconomic conditions, and agricultural trade. In our analysis, we account for agriculture‐specific factors to control for possible structural shifts in financial markets regimes by including the two main commodity price bubbles during last 20 years. Our results show that most of the variables included in our categories have been important factors in promoting regional stock market integration. Moreover, integration among regional stock markets was strengthened by the implementation of trade agreements. This effect is stronger in trade blocs with fewer members, such as NAFTA and MERCOSUR, compared with larger and more heterogeneous blocs, such as the EU and APEC.     

Welfare‐at‐Risk and Extreme Dependency of Regional Wheat Yields: Implications of a Stochastic CGE Model

Stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have ignored regional correlations in agricultural yields, assuming random shocks to be independent between regions. This could lead to misinterpretation of simulation outputs which ignore extreme positive or negative harvests at the global scale. We develop a multi‐regional CGE model which allows for five types of interregional correlation between wheat yields to analyse the vulnerability of countries against fluctuating international markets, focusing on Value at Risk (VaR) and extreme dependency. We find that global welfare risks could be underestimated by up to 33% if significant interregional correlations in yield shocks are not taken into account. Egypt, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, the former Soviet Union and Northern Africa are particularly vulnerable to global volatilities in terms of economic welfare.     

Regional Integration of Nineteenth Century U.S. Egg Markets

Multivariate asymmetric threshold vector error correction models are applied to a historical analysis of the regional integration of U.S. markets for eggs at the turn of the nineteenth century. Two general approaches to the selection of the thresholds are considered. The first criterion ignores the cross equation correlation while the latter explicitly accounts for it. Our results suggest that threshold behaviour characterises spatial price linkages between the markets analysed.     

尼日利亚不同地区反刍动物市场定价行为研究

本文对尼日利亚牛羊市场的空间价格一体化程度进行了检验，试图运用双变量自回归时间序列模型验证寡头垄断市场上牛羊价格的非竞争性定价行为。论文分别对牛羊市场的合谋、歧视性、价格领袖和竞争性定价行为进行了经验性检验。结论表明，在牛羊价格形成中，博尔诺（Borno）和索科托（Sokoto）州的牛羊价格领先于克里斯河（CrossRiver）、依莫（Imo）、卡诺（Kano）、拉各斯（Lagos）、尼日尔（Niger）和奥约（Oyo）州这些地方市场的价格。有关证据也支持共谋定价一般与市场的集中有关的判断。