‘Deal’ or ‘No Deal’? Impacts of Alternative Post‐Brexit Trade Agreements on UK Agriculture

Brexit will have important implications for UK agricultural commodity markets due to potentially significant changes to trade flows. We quantify the sectoral impacts on UK agriculture of three illustrative scenarios, which capture a broad range of potential trade arrangements: Bespoke Free Trade Deal , WTO Default and Unilateral Trade Liberalisation . It is estimated that the projected market impacts are relatively small if the UK negotiates a Bespoke Free Trade Agreement with the EU. The projected impacts are much greater under the two other scenarios, which capture potential trade arrangements if ‘no deal’ is reached. The high tariffs imposed under the WTO default scenario lead to significant adjustments in trade between the UK and EU‐27, with the impact on the domestic UK market depending on whether the UK is a net importer or a net exporter of the relevant commodity. All sectors experience price and production declines under the trade liberalisation scenario in which the UK unilaterally sets tariffs on imports from both the EU‐27 and the rest of the world to zero; the impacts are particularly severe in the beef and sheep sectors where international competition is very strong.     

Deracializing Exploitation? ‘Black Economic Empowerment’ in the South African Wine Industry

This paper considers the discourse and practice of 'Black Economic Empowerment' (BEE) in the South African wine industry. It argues that far from representing a decisive break with an inequitable past, BEE allows the South African wine industry to avoid potentially more uncomfortable options to redress current and past race-based imbalances – such as land redistribution, import boycotts and better working conditions for grape pickers. An essentialist racial discourse, pivoting on ahistorical and dislocated notions of 'blackness', has been used to displace the transformation agenda away from addressing the conditions faced by workers, and to an ameliorism that allows a small cohort of black entrepreneurs to become the preferred beneficiaries of 'transformation' in the wine industry. The new terrain is characterized by branding, advertising and image building on the one side: and by codes of conduct, a sectoral BEE charter, scorecards and auditing on the other. These allow the standardization, legitimation and ostensible deracialization of exploitative labour and social relations in the South African wine industry.     

Does ‘Protection for Sale’ Apply to the US Food Industries?

This paper tests the Protection for Sale model in terms of the structure of protection and how realistic the estimated domestic welfare weight is relative to campaign contributions. Using data from US food manufacturing, empirical results support the key predictions for the structure of protection when either all food manufacturing industries or most of the general population is assumed to be politically organised. The domestic welfare weight is estimated as low as 0.837, the lowest econometric estimate to date, underlining that protection is for sale and that, with a qualified ‘yes’, the model fits the data for these industries.     

The End of a Romance? A Note on the Quantitative Impacts of a ‘Brexit’ from the EU

This study suggests UK equivalent variation (EV) gains of €8.9 billion on withdrawal from the EU budget. Factoring in associated trade facilitation costs from the loss of UK access to the single market, annual UK EV losses could be as high as €14.0 billion, with the EU‐28 facing a corresponding loss of €40.4 billion. Interestingly, the extrapolated UK gain arising from withdrawal from the ‘CAP’ component of the EU budget exceeds estimated lower and upper bound trade facilitation costs exclusively on EU agrofood trade. Accordingly, the UK should realistically remain as an EU member, although continue to lobby for reductions in the CAP budget.     

2018穿越寒冬 2019乍暖还寒

正在2019’CNCE棉业发展年会上,中国棉花信息网总经理贾蕾以"棉花供求形势分析与展望"为题,从历史回顾、本年度现状梳理、总结和展望四个方面,对棉花市场的供求情况进行了因素分析,并就企业对信息的分析和使用提出一些建议。一、回顾过去从历年我国棉花生产整体情况来看,面积减但单产增,近年总产相对稳定。2008年以来我国植棉面积趋减,近三年来稳定在5000万亩左右;近20年来全国单产增幅约80%,其中     

What’s next for the Renewable Energy Target – resolving Australia’s integration of energy and climate change policy?*

Australian climate change policy and its integration with Australia’s electricity markets have been fraught for at least two decades. The only enduring policy has been the Commonwealth Renewable Energy Target (RET). Despite the relative success of the RET in driving investment and reducing emissions, state governments have now pivoted towards contracts-for-difference (Cfds). In this article, we outline the issues associated with policy discontinuity and the large-scale RET and review its effectiveness as an emissions reduction tool and driver of electricity sector abatement. We find that the RET has been relatively successful across the key criteria of cost and emissions reductions and is a better policy instrument than contracts-for-difference, which are increasingly being adopted by state governments. Building on the work of Nelson et al. (2020), we propose a new approach, which would allow for continued use of Cfds but utilising the RET’s policy architecture.     

The Effects of Kenya's ‘Smarter’ Input Subsidy Programme on Smallholder Behaviour and Incomes: Do Different Quasi‐experimental Approaches Lead to the Same Conclusions?

Kenya joined the ranks of sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries implementing targeted input subsidy programmes (ISPs) for inorganic fertiliser and improved seed in 2007 with the establishment of the National Accelerated Agricultural Inputs Access Programme (NAAIAP). Although several features of NAAIAP were ‘smarter’ than other ISPs in the region, some aspects were less ‘smart’. However, the efficacy of the programme, and the relationship between its design and effectiveness, have been little studied. This article uses nationwide survey data to estimate the effects of NAAIAP participation on Kenyan smallholders’ cropping patterns, incomes, and poverty status. Unlike most previous studies of ISPs, a range of panel data‐ and propensity score‐based methods are used to estimate the effects of NAAIAP. The article then compares these estimated effects across estimators and to the effects of other ISPs in SSA, and discusses the likely links between differences in programme designs and impacts. The results are robust to the choice of estimator and suggest that, despite substantial crowding out of commercial fertiliser demand, NAAIAP had sizeable impacts on maize production and poverty severity. NAAIAP's success in targeting resource‐poor farmers and implementation through vouchers redeemable at private agro‐dealer shops likely contributed to its more favorable impacts than those of ISPs in Malawi and Zambia.     

Cheating? The Case of Producers’ Under‐Reporting Behavior in Hog Insurance in China

Information asymmetry exists in virtually every insurance setting. The institutional arrangement of hog insurance in China offers a unique opportunity to investigate the farmer's behavior of under‐reporting the actual number of finished hogs on one hand, and the insurer's efficiency in determining the actual numbers on the other. Using data on 444 hog operators synchronized from farm production survey and insurance records, results showed that farmers report on average 11.5% fewer hogs to the insurance company. The level of under‐reporting is positively associated with the size of operation. Farmers with longer farming experience and more conservative risk attitude report more accurately. The under‐report behavior is also partially attributed to a farmer's limited capacity of accurate estimation. Due to information barrier, the insurance company is only able to recover 18.6% of the under‐report at the indemnity payment stage. Results are robust after controlling for potential sample selection problems. It is suggested that technical supports, public programs and premium incentive designs in repeated insurance should be considered to promote more accurate reports.     

2018~2019年湖南部分农产品对比

整理2018~2019年部分农产品的平均价格数据,我们发现,受到非洲猪瘟疫情影响,畜禽产品价格涨幅比较大,猪肉平均价格上涨55%,同时带动了牛肉、鸡、鸭等肉类产品价格上涨;蛋类和水产品平均价格涨跌幅度不大,相对稳定。2019年全国虽然出现了大面积干旱现象,但是未影响到市场蔬菜供应,蔬菜市场平均价格有涨有跌。     

Do input subsidy programs “crowd in” or “crowd out” commercial market development? Modeling fertilizer demand in a two‐channel marketing system

Many governments in developing countries distribute fertilizer at subsidized prices in an effort to stimulate small farmers' agricultural productivity and food security. Prior fertilizer demand studies have largely failed to account for the effects of government programs on farmers' commercial purchases. Using a double hurdle model and nationally representative rural household panel data in Zambia, we distinguish between these sources and measure the contemporaneous "crowding in" and "crowding out" effects of government input programs on commercial fertilizer sales. Where the private sector is relatively active and average wealth is higher (areas seemingly more likely to be targeted by government programs), results indicate that subsidies have substantially crowded out the private sector, in some cases to the point that such programs could actually lower overall fertilizer use. On the other hand, in poorer areas where the private sector is relatively inactive, subsidies help to generate demand and crowd in private sector retailers. Empirical studies explicitly modeling farmers' fertilizer purchase behavior within a dual marketing framework can provide important insights for agricultural policy discussions in developing countries.     

乡村振兴政策盘点（2018-2019年）

<正>12018年2月,中央1号文件《中共中央国务院关于实施乡村振兴战略的意见》发布,确定了实施乡村振兴战略的目标任务,到2050年,农业强、农村美、农民富将全面实现。22018年2月,中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发了《农村人居环境整治三年行动方案》,旨在加快推进农村人居环境整治,进一步提升农村人居环境水平。     

Is fertiliser use inconsistent with expected profit maximization in sub‐Saharan Africa? “Evidence from Nigeria”

This article revisits a conventional wisdom that inorganic fertiliser use across sub‐Saharan Africa is too low. This expectation that more farmers should be using inorganic fertiliser, and at higher rates, implies it is profitable to use rates higher than observed if farmers are rational expected profit maximisers. We obtain consistent estimates of the effects of applied nitrogen on rice production. We find the yield response to applied nitrogen to be low in the main rice growing farming system. Farmer behaviour is not inconsistent with expected profitability which is limited by a low yield response to applied fertiliser, high transportation costs, and low selling prices for rice in rural areas. In particular, we do not find any farmers for whom applied nitrogen is profitable that are not using fertiliser in the study sample for each of our survey years (2010 and 2012).     

Does Intensive Tillage Enhance Productivity and Reduce Risk Exposure? Panel Data Evidence from Smallholders’ Agriculture in Ethiopia

We analyse the impact of intensity of tillage on wheat productivity and risk exposure using panel household‐plot level data from Ethiopia. In order to control for selection bias, we estimate a flexible moment‐based production function using an endogenous switching regression treatment effects model. We find that tillage has a complementary impact on productivity and risk exposure. As the intensity of tillage increases, productivity increases and farmers’ exposure to risk declines. Our results suggest that smallholder farmers use tillage as an ex‐ante risk management strategy. The main policy implication of this study is that the opportunity cost of switching to reduced tillage in wheat production seem rather high unless farmers are supported by appropriate incentive schemes.     

Cereal price shocks and volatility in sub‐Saharan Africa: what really matters for farmers’ welfare?

The lack of information as well as some misperceptions about the distinction between the welfare consequences of higher versus more volatile cereal prices has limited the effectiveness of policy interventions during the recent food crises in many developing countries. This article proposes an integrated empirical strategy to investigate and compare the different effects of these two phenomena and tests it using nationally representative household survey data from four sub‐Saharan countries. Results show that the negative impacts of a cereal price increase substantially outweigh the effects of price volatility on household welfare across the entire income distribution. The amplitude and the distribution of those effects depend heavily on specific factors, such as: the weight of food consumption over total expenditure; the budget share devoted to cereals; the substitution effect among food groups; and the relative number of net sellers versus net buyers accessing the market. We also show that volatility mainly harms the poorest quintile of the population.     

农发行表彰2018～2019年度脱贫攻坚先进集体和先进个人

2020年1月20日,农发行在召开年度工作会议期间举行表彰仪式,隆重表彰荣获2018~2019年度“脱贫攻坚贡献奖”“脱贫攻坚奉献奖”的先进集体和先进个人。解学智董事长主持仪式,徐一丁副行长宣读表彰决定,总行行领导出席并为先进集体代表和先进个人颁发奖牌和证书。