中俄经济外交战略与两国经贸关系之比较

冷战结束后,经济外交凭借经济性、和平式和高效率的特点,被许多国家、政府和组织运用到对外政策当中。中俄两国在发展国内经济和摆脱国际经济困境的双重考验下,选择和采用了经济外交,并不断扩展和充实经济外交的目标。经济外交为两国经贸关系的发展提供了机遇和挑战,而中俄经贸关系的深入发展也促进了两国经济外交战略目标的实现。但从对外贸易的角度来看,尽管中俄两国在彼此经济外交战略中的地位很重要,且这种重要性有进一步上升的趋势,但并不居于首要地位,经济外交仅是两国处理国家关系的一个手段,是总体外交的一个组成部分。同时,一些现实因素也影响着两国运用经济外交发展两国经贸关系。     

大国协调与国际安全治理

大国协调是大国共同管理国际冲突与危机的一种多边安全机制。它主要通过会议外交和协商、共识来决策,并依据一致性、合法性、责任性、包容性和自我克制等共有规则与规范行事。从发展进程看,它经历了应对军事安全的传统大国协调和应对综合安全的新大国协调两个不同历史时期。由于大国协调在维持国际和平和解决重大国际危机中发挥着无可替代的作用,因此已成为国际安全治理的主渠道。目前的新大国协调既是对传统大国协调的重要延续,又出现了一些新的变化,如安全议题的多领域、会议机制的多轨道和常设性、成员数量的增多、规则与规范的低法律化和非强制性等。总体上看,在当前的国际环境中,新大国协调比传统大国协调更容易推行,但也存在诸多现实问题,因而必须从合法性、授权性和集中性诸方面予以改进。合法性主要是增强法律化和责任性;扩大授权性可以与权威国际组织缔结成一种委托-代理的关系;集中性的核心是建立一种更具内聚性的新的大国协调,即全球治理中心机制。     

The OPEC aid record

Financial aid from OPEC is a novel phenomenon involving developing countries as donors. The record of OPEC aid is assessed using both OECD and UNCTAD data. The specific features of OPEC aid are analysed. The burden on donors and the benefits to recipients of OPEC aid are greater than suggested by conventional measures developed for DAC aid. The possible motivations of OPEC donors — ethical, economic and political — are discussed. The prospects of OPEC aid largely depend on future developments of oil prices and revenue needs in OPEC countries.     

日本积极推进FTA/EPA的政策措施

日本政府自世纪之交修改WTO一边倒的贸易政策,实施以WTO为中心,同时推进双边自由贸易、地区自由贸易和多边自由贸易的新贸易政策以来,近年来又把自由贸易的重点一步一步地倾向以东亚为中心的双边自由贸易,与美国、欧盟的EPA也提上了议事日程。为此,日本政府在提高FTA/EPA的紧迫感、加快FTA/EPA谈判的同时,还制定EPA行动计划,建立专门的组织机构,加强统一领导和统一协调,进行官产学共同研究,争取国民的理解和支持,积极开展ODA外交,加快农业改革,克服贸易自由化主要的障碍,积极推动了其以东亚为中心的FTA/EPA的迅速发展。     

气候公约外多边机制对气候公约的影响

《联合国气候变化框架公约》是国际应对气候变化合作的主渠道。为推进该领域的国际合作,主要经济体能源与气候论坛等一些公约外涉及气候变化主题的多边协商机制陆续出现,并对公约下的谈判和公约框架下的国际合作产生了影响。这些机制与公约的关系定性地基本可分为包含、竞争、补充、交叉、平行和取代六类。进一步采用指标-空间距离法对这些机制与公约的紧密程度进行定量分析,结果表明,主要经济体能源与气候论坛对公约进程的影响最大,目前公约外机制尚不存在取代公约的可能性。各种公约外机制对公约的影响主要是通过技术支持、政治意愿和具有法律约束力的规定三类模式实现。     

基于人际公平的碳排放概念及其理论含义

气候变化问题已经成为国际外交与环境谈判的热点议题。针对后京都国际气候制度谈判,世界各国就减排责任分担以及碳排放权分配提出了各种方案设计,试图从国际公平和人际公平两个不同视角量化各国的温室气体减排责任。作者区分了国际公平与人际公平的碳排放概念,研究了主要国家人均碳排放与经济发展之间的关联,比较测算了不同国家人均累积碳排放在全球历史和未来排放总量中所占的比重,指出减排责任的分担,必须综合考虑各国的历史责任、现实发展阶段和未来发展需求。发达国家已经实现了工业化,需要率先垂范,深度减排,发展中国家仍然处于工业化进程之中,未来需要更多的排放空间,以满足其发展的需求。对于中国而言,基于人际公平的碳排放概念可以作为学界研究国际碳排放权分配的理论工具,也可以作为政府部门参与国际谈判的一种策略。     

双边自由贸易区热的政治经济学分析——一个新区域主义视角

当WTO框架下的多边贸易谈判陷入僵局时,越来越多的国家开始热衷于双边自由贸易区的建立,国际贸易的双边时代已经到来。本文以古诺均衡为基础构建理论模型,论证大国积极筹建双边自由贸易区是为了在将来可能的多边谈判中更有话语权,即增加多边框架下的谈判筹码。接下来利用美国的相关数据,采用贸易引力模型进行实证分析,验证了理论的可靠性。通过理论与实证分析得出结论:未来的多边谈判将是几大利益集团之间的角逐。     

Implementation and imbalance: dealing with hangover from the Uruguay Round

The Uruguay Round agreements impose bound obligations to implement,but provide only unbound promises of assistance—is therea legal solution within the WTO legal system, i.e. can implementationassistance be made a legal obligation? The author concludesthat the Doha negotiations on trade facilitation and on aidfor trade demonstrate that such a legal arrangement cannot beconstructed. This is not, however, a problem; the internationalcommunity has provided extensive trade-related assistance throughbilateral and multilateral development agencies. Regarding theoverall Uruguay Round imbalance (developing countries gave morethan they got), failure of the international community to acknowledgethat the imbalance stems in major part from the WTO agreementon intellectual property (TRIPS) has retarded a general making-up.     

中国RTAs发展及与拉美国家区域经济合作

本文通过对近年来中国区域贸易安排(RTAs)发展进程的分析,阐明了中国RTAs发展的特点。中国RTAs及其发展体现了多边贸易合作和双边贸易合作并举、广泛参与RTAs谈判活动、先易后难、策略灵活务实、选择的贸易合作对象与中国的经济具有较强的互补性等特点。在此基础上,文章进一步探讨了中国与拉美国家发展RTAs的利弊,认为在经济全球化的大背景下,中国是多边贸易制度的最大受益者之一。为此,在兼顾区域贸易合作发展的同时,要以长远的战略眼光促进WTO多哈回合谈判的成功。     

Asian trade: long‐term patterns and key policy issues

Fragmentation‐based specialisation has become an integral part of the economic landscape of East Asia. Dependence on this new form of international specialisation is proportionately larger in East Asia, in particular in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, than in North America and Europe. In this regard, an important recent development has been the rapid integration of China into regional production networks. This development is a counterpoint to the popular belief that China's global integration would crowd out other countries' opportunities for international specialisation. The rise of product fragmentation has strengthened the case for a global, rather than a regional, approach to trade and investment policymaking. Given the global orientation of the region's economies, we question whether there would be a significant benefit from current efforts to promote regional cooperation, unless the principle of ‘open regionalism’ is recognised. With both the Doha Round and APEC floundering, this is one of the major multilateral policy challenges of our time.     

论新时期中国的准联盟外交

近代以来,西方大国的崛起在对外关系上主要依靠联盟外交,如英、法、德等国家在欧洲的"合纵连横",日本的"与强者为伍"战略,二战后美国对北约和亚太联盟体系的经营,冷战后俄罗斯对独联体集体安全条约组织的依赖等。受制于自身独特的发展阶段以及社会主义国家性质和地缘环境,中国缺乏历史上大国崛起所拥有的"后院",中国的战略文化也排斥"势力范围"和"联盟政治"思想。作者从中国的时代需要出发,认为现阶段中国的四大外交战略——大国协调战略、区域整合战略、政治联合战略和国际危机管理战略均难以满足中国的安全需要,中国应在联盟外交与伙伴外交之外探索"第三条道路"——准联盟外交。实施这种"联而不盟"的特殊外交类型需具备四个条件:竞争性政治集团、动态性权力关系、严重性安全威胁和"统合性"战略文化。在新时期国际"多元格局"下,中国应尝试开展灵活务实、相互联动的"三环准联盟外交"——多边组织型、新兴合作型与传统友好型,它是中国实现和平发展,运筹与美国、欧洲大国、日本、印度等大国关系的战略支点。     

论多边贸易体制下反倾销法与竞争政策的协调

WTO多边贸易体制下的反倾销法和竞争政策具有一致性,但也存在诸多冲突之处。国际社会对二者的协调提出三种方案,其中,以在《反倾销协议》中引入竞争政策的改良方案比较切合目前实际。但长远看,还是需要在WTO内建立一个协调各国竞争政策的法律框架和机制。当然,这最终取决于多边贸易体制的发展和各国实力的彼此角力。     

Cosmology and economics

Abstract

Economics has become the political magic of the twentieth century, and contention over economic policy is the political lifeblood of the modern state. The glare of publicity highlights the equilibrism of economic policy, leaving in the shade diplomacy and statecraft of former days. There is a consensus in modern society and in the modern state that political debate and economic discussion are two sides of the same coin, and that “economics”, like a second law of nature, sets the limits of the political options. Economic reform, economic adjustment, economic “rescue plans” and so on are synonyms for political strategies. Politics is the management of the “economy”, and at the same time “economics” is the authority to which all appeal as the “necessity”, as the authority that governs and legitimises policy.     

Impact of East Asia's Growth Interruption and Policy Responses: The Case of Indonesia

Assessments to date of the consequences of implementing the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations have assumed medium-term rates of economic growth in East Asia that now seem unsustainable. This paper compares an earlier assessment with a new set of estimates involving an interruption to East Asian economic growth in the late 1990s, using the global, economy-wide GTAP model. Attention focuses on results for Indonesia, the worst-affected country in the region. An important consequence of the crisis is that Indonesia is likely to become more agrarian for a time than it otherwise would have been. The estimated benefits to Indonesia from embracing further unilateral reform, as a way of catching up, are contrasted with the alternative strategy of reneging on Uruguay Round commitments to liberalize trade.     

低碳经济发展的全球治理与合作研究

低碳经济发展的全球治理与合作体系主要由国际谈判与决策机制(政府间治理框架)、国际碳排放权交易体系(市场经济体系新规范)、国际低碳技术扩散系统(基于知识产权保护的低碳创新技术应用)等三方面构成,其中,政府间治理框架主体的多样性和诉求的复杂性决定了决策过程的曲折性。在市场经济体系新规范中,发达国家利用现行国际经济、贸易、金融机制的优势话语权控制甚至垄断主要交易市场及交易品种,碳排放作为又一项重要的国际资源,发展中国家正逐渐丧失对资源开发、市场定价、交易过程的控制权,并面临资源价值控制权与主导权的再一次弱化。在国际低碳治理体系技术体系中,基于全球治理共识下的低碳技术在全球范围内的技术扩散、技术转移与技术溢出效应逐渐显现,但技术权力决定的利益诉求对低碳技术流动的制约作用也同时凸显。     

Some aspects of the impact of inflation on the debt burden of developing countries

The effect of inflation on the external indebtedness of developing countries is examined in this UNCTAD paper in a more comprehensive framework than is usually the case. The conventional view on this has been that international inflation reduces the ‘real’ burden of external debt. However, viewed in the context of the net effect of inflation on the import capacity of debtor developing countries, the paper shows that the situation is by no means so simple. It demonstrates by examining the cases of a sample of 71 developing countries that the effect of price increases of developing countries' imports (relative to price increases for their exports) caused by international inflation can and often has more than offset the so-called favourable effect on the burden of debt. For example in 1975, a year with particularly high inflation, no less than 75% in the sample experienced negative consequences. In these cases, therefore, international inflation on balance has reduced import capacity and thus made it more not less difficult for them to maintain servicing on their external debt and so increased the ‘real’ burden of their debt. Thus the UNCTAD paper brings into serious question the conventional wisdom on this important issue.     

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and Trans‐Pacific Partnership: Policy Options of China

As a result of deadlocked multilateral trade negotiations, many countries have embarked on the establishment of bilateral and regional trade agreements. Using the Global Trade Analysis Project database and a computable general equilibrium model, our paper focuses on the impacts of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trans‐Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the Chinese economy under three scenarios. The results suggest that when only the TTIP is realized, Chinese economic variables are negatively affected. When both the TTIP and the TPP are realized and China is excluded, the combined damage to the Chinese economy is higher than the damage with the TTIP alone. However, the inclusion of China in the TPP has a positively effect on economic variables in China. This indicates that the impacts of China's participation in the TPP compensate for the negative impacts of the TTIP. Therefore, China should consider being part of the TPP to offset the negative impacts of the TTIP.     

建设性领导与中国外交转型

在全球化的过程中,中国先后经历了两次外交转型。第一次转型发生在20世纪50年代,其核心是从屈辱外交向革命外交转型,目的是在世界舞台上赢得国家主权独立和尊严。20世纪80年代开始的中国改革开放启动了中国外交的第二次转型,中国外交从革命外交向发展外交转型,目的是为中国现代化赢得良好的国际环境和周边环境。随着中国日益深入地融入到全球化进程中,特别是中国的经济总量在2010年超过日本成为第二经济大国后,作者认为,中国外交需启动第三次转型,其核心是从发展外交向领导外交转型。中国在国际舞台上日益成为扮演建设性领导者角色,但中国不会挑战或者取代美国作为全球领导者的角色,而是从中国国情和能力出发,在全球经济和社会问题上努力做一个建设性领导者。     

International commodity policy: UNCTAD and NIEO in search of a rationale

This paper concentrates on a critique of international commodity policy from a non-neoclassical perspective. It is argued that, despite the formulation of international commodity policy in UNCTAD and NIEO in terms of broad perspectives for major structural and institutional change, both the theoretical weakness of the formulation of the proposals and the realities of relatively weak bargaining power of Third World countries have led to negotiation almost exclusively in terms of narrowly defined price objectives. The discussion of the theoretical weaknesses is illustrated with reference to simulation studies of commodity markets and empirical evidence on terms of trade movements. It is argued that the UNCTAD/NIEO policies proposed are unsuitable for and unlikely to achieve the desired ends. The final section of the paper examines briefly and finds in the literature on ‘unequal exchange’ a possible hidden rationale for the indexation aspects of UNCTAD/NIEO policy. The paper concludes that the discussion of international commodity policy to date remains outside the realm of serious appraisal of the operation of the world capitalist system and the possibilities therein for major structural and/or institutional change.     

The refsnes seminar: Economic theory and north–south negotiations

This paper attempts to assess existing economic theory and its use by policy-makers in North-South negotiations. Particular attention is directed at international trade in manufactures, primary commodity issues, and international monetary questions. Problems considered include: weak theory, the employment of overly crude models by policy-makers, paradigm clash, implicit bias, and inadequate knowledge of facts. An agenda for further research and possible action concludes the discussion. The paper is a personal summary of the discussions in a conference on the relevance of economic theory to NIEO negotiations.