Still waiting for Mister Right? Asymmetric information,abortion laws and the timing of marriage

Previous studies have suggested that more liberal abortion laws should lead to a decrease in marriage rates among young women as ‘shotgun weddings’ are no longer necessary. Empirical evidence from the United States lends support to that hypothesis. This article presents an alternative theory of abortion access and marriage based on the cost of search which suggests that more liberal abortion laws may actually promote young marriage. An empirical examination of marriage data from Eastern Europe shows that countries that liberalized their abortion laws saw an increase in marriage rates among nonteenage women.     

Does asymmetric information affect the premium in mergers and acquisitions?

We test the influence of information asymmetry on the premium paid for an acquisition. We analyze mergers and acquisitions as English auctions. The theory of dynamic auctions with private and common value predicts that more informed bidders may pay a lower price. We test that prediction with a sample of 1,026 acquisitions in the United States between 1990 and 2007. We assume that blockholders of the target's shares are better informed than other bidders because they possess privileged information on the target. Our empirical results show that blockholders pay a much lower premium than do other buyers     

Does integration and economic policy coordination promote business cycle synchronization in the EU?

Previous studies have discounted important factors and indirect channels that might contribute to business cycle synchronization (BCS) in the EU. We estimate the effects of market integration and economic policy coordination on bilateral business cycle correlations over the period 1995–2012 using a simultaneous equations model that takes into accounts both the endogenous relationships and unveils direct and indirect effects. The results suggest that (1) trade and FDI have a pronounced positive effect on BCS, particularly between incumbent and new EU members. (2) Rising specialization does not decouple business cycles. (3) The decline of income disparities in EU27 contributes to BCS, as converging countries develop stronger trade and FDI linkages. (4) There is strong evidence that poor fiscal discipline of EU members is a major impediment of business cycle synchronization. (5) The same argument holds true for exchange rate fluctuations that hinder BCS, particularly in EU15. Since BCS is a fundamental prerequisite and objective in an effective monetary union, the EU has to promote market integration and strengthen the common setting of economic policies.     

Is Price Transmission in the Indian Pulses Market Asymmetric?

Journal of Quantitative Economics - Pulses form an integral part of the Indian diet. In the recent past, the domestic wholesale-retail price differential has risen rapidly. The retail prices...     

Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?

The ECB target is set in terms of the year on year growth rate of the euro area Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices. Nonetheless, a good deal of attention is given to national data by market analysts when they try to anticipate monetary policy moves. In this paper we use the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model to develop a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national data with area wide information, allow us to answer two related questions. The first is whether country specific data actually bear any relevance for the future path of area wide price growth, over and above that already contained in area wide data. The second is whether to track ECB monetary policy decisions it is useful to take into account national information and not only area wide statistics. Within our empirical framework we find that once area wide information is properly taken into account the contribution of national idiosyncratic developments is negligible.     

Re-matching, information and sequencing effects in posted offer markets

This paper evaluates the effects of some standard procedural variations on outcomes in posted offer oligopoly experiments. Variations studied include the presence or absence of market information, the use of re-matched or fixed seller pairs and alterations in the order of sequencing. Experimental results indicate that such variations can have first order effects on outcomes. For this reason, we recommend that results in oligopoly experiments be carefully interpreted in light of the procedures selected.

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Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.      

Does the digital divide matter? The role of information and communication technology in cross-country level and growth estimates

The bulk of information and communication technology is made of weightless, implementable, and infinitely reproducible knowledge products (such as software and databases). These products are transferred by telephone lines, accessed through internet hosts, and processed through personal computers. In this work, the coefficient of the labour augmenting factor in the aggregate production function has been estimated using proxies of variables crucially affecting the diffusion of (non-rival and almost non-excludable) knowledge products. This specification provides interesting answers to some of the open issues in the existing growth literature. The most recent information, though available for a limited period, shows that telephone lines, personal computers, mobile phones, and internet hosts significantly affect levels and growth of income per worker across countries. The result is robust to changes in sample composition, econometric specification, and estimation approach.     

The unholy marriage? Integrating qualitative and quantitative information in Delphi processes

This study analyses the strengths, weaknesses and pitfalls encountered when combining qualitative and quantitative information in a Delphi process and when reporting the results as scenarios or images of the future. The paper draws material from seven Disaggregative Policy Delphi processes conducted in Finland in 1999-2008, in which the authors were researchers or advisors. The cases are analysed in terms of the level of integration and the ways to overcome the difficulties. A learning ‘community of practice’ was created by these afterthoughts and by organising an international conference workshop on the issue. Qualitative and quantitative material was holistically integrated in one case. In the other cases, solutions led to domination of one material type over another but even then the other material did give relevant points to scenario formation. Finally, we give recommendations for tackling the pitfalls: 1) balancing between qualitative and quantitative, 2) balancing between formal structure and questions raised in the process, 3) framing questions to discover alternative future states, 4) paying attention to panellists' style, 5) dealing with lack of data for comprehensive cluster analysis, 6) considering scenario consistency, 7) understanding manager's responsibility and, 8) understanding the epistemological aspects of Delphi data. We conclude that integrating qualitative and quantitative material by using mixed methods to form coherent scenarios is at the same time desirable, possible and difficult - making the ‘unholy marriage’ a worthy adventure.     

Homogeneity and heterogeneity in information technology private standard settings – the institutional account

The IT (information technology) standardisation landscape is characterised by the increasing importance of private standard setting consortia, a greater convergence between the structural features of formal and private standard organisations, and greater diversity in standard organisations. Institutional theory has been applied to explain the convergence of standard setting bodies. This paper applies institutional theory to four studies of standards organisations, showing that there are indeed homogenising mimetic, coercive and normative forces in standard setting that lead to the convergence of emergent organisations with the institutional features, but that there are also forces promoting heterogeneity, in particular the multiplicity of institutional fields within which standards consortia operate, leading to a complex, and often conflicting, matrix of institutional norms to be accommodated.     

Rural development in the digital age: Does information and communication technology adoption contribute to credit access and income growth in rural China?

Information and communication technology (ICT) plays an important role in rural livelihoods and household well-being. Therefore, this study examines the impact of ICT adoption on farmers' decisions to access credit and the joint effects of ICT adoption and access to credit on household income using 2016 China Labour-force Dynamics Survey data. Both recursive bivariate probit model and a selectivity-corrected ordinary least square regression model are employed for the analysis. The results show that ICT adoption increases the probability of access to credit by 12.8% in rural China and empowers rural women and farm households in relatively less-developed regions to access credit. ICT adoption and access to credit affect household income differently. ICT adoption significantly increases household income, while access to credit significantly reduces it, primarily because farmers do not use the acquired credit to invest in income-generating farm and off-farm business activities. ICT adoption has the largest positive impact on household income at the highest 90th quantile. Our findings suggest that improving rural ICT infrastructure to enhance farmers' ICT adoption and developing ICT-based financial products to enable households to access sufficient funds can improve rural household welfare.     

Data,information and knowledge: have we got it right?

Economists make the unarticulated assumption that information is something that stands apart from and is independent of the processor of information and its internal characteristics. We argue that they need to revisit the distinctions they have drawn between data, information, and knowledge. Some associate information with data, and others associate information with knowledge. But since none of them readily conflates data with knowledge, this suggests too loose a conceptualisation of the term information. We argue that the difference between data, information, and knowledge is in fact crucial. Information theory and the physics of information provide us with useful insights with which to build an economics of information appropriate to the needs of the emerging information economy.JEL Classification: A12, D20, D80, M21Correspondence to: Agustí CanalsA. Canals, Av. Tibidabo, 39-43. 08035 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain     

A European Geopolitical Subject in the Making? EU,Russia and the Kaliningrad Question

This article engages the recent studies that have treated the European Union (EU) in geopolitical terms, as an empire engaged with enlargement. The article introduces the meta-concept of geopolitical subjectivity. This meta-concept enables us to situate such imperial interpretations of the EU into a theoretically informed, comparative setting. The meta-concept is defined as goal-oriented ordering of territories and political spaces, extending from one's own sphere of sovereign rule to broader regional contexts. It is used to study the EU-Russian interaction in creating order to the Kaliningrad region that is set to become a Russian enclave/exclave within the enlarged EU. The article concludes by arguing that in this case, the EU's geopolitical subjectivity is constituted more strongly by Russia's recognition of this status than by the EU's own identity and interest projects.     

Are experts better than potential users in predicting the uptake of an innovation? Extending the use of the Juster Scale

Are experts or potential users better at predicting the success of a new product? To explore this question we used an eleven-point probability scale, the Juster Scale, to ask various groups of people about their probability of taking up a new product and also their assessment of its chance of its success in the marketplace. Although this type of scale generally performs better than intention scales it tends to over-predict when used in a repertoire market and we examine its performance for a boundary condition of such a market. We also explored the use of the scale as a projective research tool which is a novel application. In this study the product was a new type of charity lottery. The study was undertaken in the month prior to the lottery closing and we subsequently knew the actual outcome. The Juster Scale generally performed poorly as a predictor in this context. The predictions from the experts were no more accurate than those of the general public but none had direct knowledge of an equivalent lottery. This exploratory study concluded that the actual behaviour of a sample of relevant consumers, where the product is available, is better for forecasting than asking for estimates of their potential behaviour, that is, behaviour predicts behaviour better than probabilities of behaviour.     

Does asymmetric information matter in the early insurance market? Evidence from the auto insurance market

In the late 1960s, the performance of automobile insurance declined dramatically in Japan in spite of rapid growth in the diffusion rate, and the premiums were sharply raised several times in order to improve the situation. This observation indicates the possible presence of adverse selection (death spiral), and provides an ideal situation for assessing informational asymmetry. Using bodily injury liability (BIL) insurance data from 46 Japanese prefectures over the period 1966 to 1975, this article tests two hypotheses of adverse selection: (i) high-risk drivers were more likely to join the BIL insurance market and (ii) sharp premium increases drove low-risk policyholders away. Various empirical analyses show that there is little evidence for either type of adverse selection. We also test whether a risk-misperception hypothesis can explain our results, and find some evidence that the population density have a significantly positive impact on the demand for BIL insurance.     

What's behind the rise in profitability in the US in the 1980s and 1990s?

Profitability in the US has been rising since the early 1980sand by 1997 was at its highest level since its post-World WarII peak in the mid-1960s, and the profit share, by one definition,at its highest point. In this paper, I examine the role of thechange in the profit share and capital intensity, as well asstructural change, on movements in the rate of profit between1947 and 1997. Its recent recovery is traced to a rise in theprofit share in national income, a slowdown in capital–labourgrowth at the industry level, and employment shifts to relativelylabour-intensive industries.     

Return, purchase, or skip? Outcome, duration, and consumer behavior in the rent-to-own market

Rent-to-own (RTO) is attractive to financially distressed consumers. It allows immediate access to merchandise and an opportunity for eventually acquisition. Yet goods can be returned at any point without penalty or other adverse consequences. We use a competing risk methodology that accounts for unobserved consumer heterogeneity to study how contracts conclude, estimating the probabilities of exit??via return, purchase, or skip??and the associated durations. The estimated outcome probabilities highlight the use of the embedded return option by RTO consumers and the trade-offs and cross-subsidization implicit in the RTO contractual arrangement. We offer rational and behavioral explanations of consumer behavior in the RTO market, which we believe can be generalized to other consumer loan markets.