An integrated decision-support approach in prioritizing risks of non-indigenous species in the face of high uncertainty

When evaluating the risks of future invasions, we often have sparse information on the likelihood that a species will arrive, establish and spread in a new environment, and on the potential impacts should this occur. Conventional risk assessment, therefore, is limited in providing guidance in managing the risk of non-indigenous species (NIS). However, risk management decisions must be made facing these uncertainties to avoid high and irreversible impacts.We develop an integrated ecological economic modeling and deliberative multi-criteria evaluation (DMCE) approach to support group decision-making in risk prioritization, using an example of ten NIS that could potentially impact Australian plant industries. This innovative approach seeks to combine the advantages of dynamic modeling with the benefits of DMCE in assessing and communicating uncertainty. The model unveils the complexity of the socio-ecological system of biological invasion, with a scenario analysis designed to interactively communicate scientific uncertainty to decision-makers. The DMCE provides a structured approach to identifying stakeholders' key concerns in addressing economic, social, and environmental dimensions of NIS risk explicitly. Functioning as a platform for risk communication, the DMCE also offers an opportunity for diverse views to enter the decision-making process and for the negotiation of consensus consensuses.     

When is a “wait and see” approach to invasive species justified?

Predictions of damages and damages that might be avoided from invasive species control policies are marred by uncertainty that has both economic and ecological roots. Public policies directed at invasive species typically lag their detection. One possible explanation is the coupling of uncertainty with political and economic commitments creates an incentive to delay a policy response in order to gain more information on how damaging the invasion will be – a “wait and see” approach. We investigate whether this rationale is justified by identifying invasion characteristics that require the wait and see approach often adopted by lawmakers and government agencies. The model shows that the source of uncertainty and degree of policy irreversibility matter and allows the classification of invasive species with a low rate of spread and low levels of uncertainty as those where policies can be optimally timed in the future.     

Importing exotic plants and the risk of invasion: are market-based instruments adequate?

Exotic plant species are often intentionally imported into regions outside of their normal range as ornamental plants or as breeding stock, thereby generating benefits for consumers and producers. However, one of the unintended side effects of such introductions is that the exotic plant species may become invasive. Prohibiting sale of this type of exotic plant species, on the basis that it may become invasive, will have social costs in the form of foregone consumer benefits and nursery profits. We develop a model of a private commercial plant breeding industry that imports an exotic plant species into a region. The risk associated with invasion is modeled using a probabilistic ‘hazard function’, the key determinants of which are the characteristics of the exotic plant and the number of commercial nurseries contributing to its dispersal. We consider the possibility of employing market-based instruments (e.g., Pigovian tax) consistent with the concept of ‘introducers pay’, to regulate the nursery industry. We then provide an empirical illustration using the historical introduction of saltcedar (Tamarisk spp.) into the United States. Our results indicate that the mere presence of a risk of invasion does not mean that it is socially optimal to prevent commercial sales of an exotic plant species. Indeed, there appear to be plausible forms of the functional relationships involved that require only a modest reduction in the private industry optimum. In contrast, no sales of the exotic plant should occur at all under several sets of assumptions about the level of invasion risk and the linkage between dispersal sites and invasion hazard.     

Take a risk: Preferring prevention over control of biological invaders

Scientists have argued that invasive species can be managed most cost effectively with greater investments in prevention. Further, under ideas like the precautionary principle it is reasonable to expect that a cautious manager would use more prevention relative to control because it keeps more invaders out. Yet, this is not typically done. In many cases, private and public resources are invested primarily to control existing invaders rather than to prevent new invasions. Managers frequently wait until after invaders have arrived and then scramble to limit the damages. We believe these paradoxical decisions can be understood by recognizing the link between typical human preferences for risk bearing and the technology of risk reduction. We demonstrate quantitatively how managers perceived to be cautious or averse to risk tend to shy away from prevention relative to control. This counterintuitive result arises because control is a safer choice than prevention because its productivity is relatively less risky: it works to remove existing invaders from the system. In contrast, the productivity of prevention is more uncertain because prevention only reduces the chance of invasion, it does not eliminate it, and invasion may not occur even in the absence of prevention. Managers' averse to risk will inherently avoid as much uncertainty as possible, whether the source of uncertainty regards ecological outcomes or economic productivity. Implications for environmental decision making are clear. In invasive species management, if managers act as though they are risk averse, their caution can backfire when it leads to more control rather than prevention. The social consequences of this choice are a greater probability of future invasions and lower social welfare. Our results suggest that social welfare is highest when managers were willing to “take a risk” with prevention.     

Seven tools for creating adaptive policies

Experience demonstrates that policies crafted to operate within a certain range of conditions are often faced with unexpected challenges outside of that range. The result is that many policies have unintended impacts and do not accomplish their goals. Adaptive policies are designed to function more effectively in complex, dynamic, and uncertain conditions. Based on over a dozen case studies on public policies relating to agriculture and water resources management in Canada and India, we conclude that there are seven tools policymakers should follow to create adaptive policies. Adaptive policies anticipate and plan for the array of conditions that lie ahead: (#1) using integrated and forward-looking analysis; (#2) monitoring key performance indicators to trigger built-in policy adjustments; (#3) undertaking formal policy review and continuous learning; and (#4) using multi-stakeholder deliberation. But not all situations can be anticipated. Unknown unknowns and deep uncertainty will always be part of policymaking. Adaptive policies are able to navigate toward successful outcomes in settings that cannot be anticipated in advance. This can be done by working in concert with certain characteristics of complex adaptive systems and thereby facilitating autonomous actions among stakeholders on the ground. To a degree, adaptive policy tools #3 and #4 can be used toward this purpose, but most directly, such autonomous tools include: (#5) enabling self-organization and social networking; (#6) decentralizing decisionmaking to the lowest and most effective jurisdictional level; and (#7) promoting variation in policy responses. This paper elaborates on these seven tools as a pragmatic guide for policymakers who find themselves working in highly complex, dynamic, and uncertain settings.     

外来入侵物种的法律规制

外来物种入侵已经成为世界各国面临的严峻问题,外来入侵物种对生物多样性、社会经济以及人类健康造成了严重的危害,国际上对建立预防和控制外来入侵物种的法律制度取得了许多成功的经验。我们应当在借鉴这些经验的基础上,以人与自然和谐发展的环境观和可持续发展观为指导,通过完善环境风险评估、行政许可、名录、检验检疫以及法律责任追究制度来加强外来入侵物种的法律规制。     

中央企业的社会责任与财务管理目标探讨

企业承担社会责任与实现财务目标具有紧密的联系,企业在实现财务目标的同时,也应履行相应的社会责任,这对提升公司价值是有益处的。第一部分首先探讨了企业社会责任的相关企业社会责任的内涵、中央企业社会责任的特殊性及其履行方式;第二部分对企业的财务管理目标和社会责任的关系进行了分析,指出了在三种方式的驱动下二者的一致性,得出＂相关者利益最大化＂是中央企业财务目标的最佳选择;最后从财务目标和企业社会责任的角度,分析了二者之间的联系及其协调过程,强调了利益相关者各方利益的协调,而且提出了协调的方法,认为企业实现财务目标的过程就是将企业承担社会责任与实现财务目标契合,在承担社会责任的过程中实现财务目标,在实现财务目标的过程中承担社会责任。     

论生态系统管理

生态系统管理是力图涉及所有利益主体的,定义人－环境相互作用可持续选择方案的一种方法。它的目标是恢复和维持生态系统的健康、高产和生物多样性以及生命的总体质量。这些都通过一种完全融合了社会和经济需求的自然资源管理方法来实现。尽管面临着许多挑战,生态系统管理依然显示出强大的生命力。     

Tradeable risk permits to prevent future introductions of invasive alien species into the Great Lakes

Commercial shipping has been implicated in over 60% of new introductions of invasive alien species (IAS) in the Great Lakes since 1960, with ballast water being the primary pathway. Recent policies have shifted the focus from postinvasion controls to prevention, with the regulation of oceanic ballast exchange as the primary approach. But this approach is not very effective, and it is often unsafe. We investigate whether an IAS tradeable permit program could provide an efficient alternative, keeping in mind that: (1) not every vessel will actually emit a species, yet ex ante each vessel is a potential emitter; (2) biological emissions are highly stochastic and essentially unobservable given current monitoring technologies. Theoretical issues in the design of a trading program are considered. We then compare the cost-effectiveness of trading versus command and control to reduce the likelihood of invasion by three classes of Ponto–Caspian species that are considered potential invaders capable of causing economic damage in the Great Lakes.     

An options based bioeconomic model for biological and chemical control of invasive species

The management of non-native invasive species is a complex but crucial task given the potential for economic and environmental damages. For many invasions the development of socially optimal control strategies requires more than is offered by the single-species, single-control models that have dominated this area of research. We develop a general stochastic optimal control framework that accommodates multiple interacting species while accounting for uncertainty in the temporal population dynamics. This extension to the current line of bioeconomic control models allows for the design of optimal integrated pest management strategies that utilize both chemical and biological controls in an environment of uncertainty and irreversibility. We demonstrate the benefits of combining chemical and biological controls in long term management strategies through a case study of the hemlock wooly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) infestation in the eastern United States. In this application we find that the introduction of natural predators is usually sufficient to manage the infestation, though chemical insecticides can play an important role when detection of the infestation is delayed or when the biological control agent does not sufficiently increase mortality of the invasive species.     

How trade politics affect invasive species control

Trade has become the main mode of transport for many invasive species, including diseases and agricultural pests. Most species are brought to their new homes unintentionally, which constitutes a market failure rooted in international trade. Unless it is practical to drive invasion risk to zero, the external costs may justify a tariff. In this paper, we analyze the political process likely to govern the formation of tariffs so justified using a straightforward incorporation of an invasive species externality into Grossman and Helpman's (GH) well-known political economy model. We show that our measure of disguised protectionism—the gap between the optimal tariff and that set in the equilibrium of the political economy game—is equal to the tariff that would be set if there were no invasive species and no international disciplines on trade policy. The informational needs required to distinguish disguised protectionism from legitimate public-goods protection are formidable.     

Bayesian belief networks as a meta-modelling tool in integrated river basin management — Pros and cons in evaluating nutrient abatement decisions under uncertainty in a Norwegian river basin

A Bayesian network approach is used to conduct decision analysis of nutrient abatement measures in the Morsa catchment, South Eastern Norway. The paper demonstrates the use of Bayesian networks as a meta-modelling tool in integrated river basin management (IRBM) for structuring and combining the probabilistic information available in existing cost-effectiveness studies, eutrophication models and data, non-market valuation studies and expert opinion. The Bayesian belief network is used to evaluate eutrophication mitigation costs relative to benefits, as part of the economic analysis under the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). Pros and cons of Bayesian networks as reported in the literature are reviewed in light of the results from our Morsa catchment model. The reported advantages of Bayesian networks in promoting integrated, inter-disciplinary evaluation of uncertainty in IRBM, as well as the apparent advantages for risk communication with stakeholders, are offset in our case by the cost of obtaining reliable probabilistic data and meta-model validation procedures.     

Managing invasive alien species with professional and hobby farmers: Insights from ecological-economic modelling

Biosecurity is a great challenge to policy-makers globally. Biosecurity policies aim to either prevent invasions before they occur or to eradicate and/or effectively manage the invasive species and diseases once an invasion has occurred. Such policies have traditionally been directed towards professional producers in natural resource based sectors, including agriculture. Given the wide scope of issues threatened by invasive species and diseases, it is important to account for several types of stakeholders that are involved. We investigate the problem of an invasive insect pest feeding on an agricultural crop with heterogeneous producers: profit-oriented professional farmers and utility-oriented hobby farmers. We start from an ecological-economic model conceptually similar to the one developed by Eiswerth and Johnson [Eiswerth, M.E. and Johnson, W.S., 2002. Managing nonindigenous invasive species: insights from dynamic analysis. Environmental and Resource Economics 23, 319-342.] and extend it in three ways. First, we make explicit the relationship between the invaded state carrying capacity and farmers' planting decisions. Second, we add another producer type into the framework and hence account for the existence of both professional and hobby farmers. Third, we provide a theoretical contribution by discussing two alternative types of equilibria. We also apply the model to an empirical case to extract a number of stylised facts and in particular to assess: a) under which circumstances the invasion is likely to be not controllable; and b) how extending control policies to hobby farmers could affect both types of producers.     

A systemic comparative assessment of the multifunctional performance of alternative olive systems in Spain within an AHP-extended framework

The concept of sustainable agriculture is strongly related to the multifunctional role, either explicitly or implicitly, recognized to the primary sector. When assessing the performance and value to society of particular agricultural systems, the multifunctional nature of agriculture requires an approach based on multicriteria. Amongst others, these include economic, environmental, social, cultural and technical criteria. Like other complex multicriteria analyses, this evaluation of agricultural systems is characterized by the existence of not only many, but often conflicting criteria, multiple stakeholders and decision-makers who have competing interests, lack of information and a consideration of the high risks involved.The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a methodology that deals with problems of this sort in a relatively easy, flexible and economical manner. Therefore it is a potentially useful tool for the practical resolution of complex problems, often an object of Ecological Economics. One such problem is the analysis of the sustainability of economic activities.This article has three aims. The first is to present AHP as a powerful methodology for assessing multifunctional performances of different agricultural systems in a comparative way. AHP can also be applied to other multifunctional economic activities. The second aim is to propose an extension of AHP for improving the decision-making processes when different groups of decision agents are involved. A final aim is to illustrate the AHP-extended methodology in a particular case study. This is done by using it to compare the multifunctional performance of alternative olive growing systems in Andalusia, a region located in the south of Spain, on the basis of the assessments of different groups of experts. This tests the hypothetically greater sustainability of organic and integrated farming over conventional farming systems in the medium/long term under average conditions for this region. Results for this case study show a greater global performance of organic and integrated agriculture despite differences in the ideological tendencies of the experts, thus providing a scientific basis for endorsing institutional and social support for the promotion and implementation of these farming techniques. Some conflictive issues, however, have been detected, especially in areas related to environmental performance. Further research on the controversial topics is desirable for clarification.     

Comparing Fuzzy and Probabilistic Approaches to Preference Uncertainty in Non-Market Valuation

In seeking to value environmental amenities and public goods, individuals often have trouble trading off the (vague) good or amenity against a monetary measure. Valuation in these circumstances can best be described as fuzzy in terms of the amenity being valued, perceptions of property rights, and the numbers chosen to reflect values. In this paper, we apply fuzzy logic to contingent valuation, employing a fuzzy clustering approach for incorporating preference uncertainty obtained from a follow-up certainty confidence question. We develop a fuzzy random utility maximization (FRUM) framework where the perceived utility of each individual is fuzzy in the sense that an individual’s utility belongs to each cluster to some degree. The model is then applied to a Swedish survey that elicited residents’ willingness to pay for enhanced forest conservation and to a Canadian survey of agricultural landowners that elicited their willingness to accept compensation for a tree planting program. Both the WTP and WTA measures we obtain using the fuzzy approach are well below those obtained using standard probability methods. Based on goodness of fit measures and Monte Carlo experimentation, a case can be made for using a fuzzy preference approach for modeling preference uncertainty as opposed to incorporating respondent uncertainty within the random utility maximization framework.      

The Education of a Technology Policy Analyst—to Process Management

Technology policy analysis emphasizes logical resolution of issues based on conceptual models, data, and analyses, but this often is not enough to accomplish anything. Policy-makers routinely disregard policy analyses, even when well done, timely, and pertinent to the issues at hand. Process management complements policy analysis by directing attention to the interactions through which disparate interests reconcile their differences to initiate viable action. We pose five questions that constitute a situational analysis decision tree. Based on answers to those questions, we distinguish five action approaches (including 'do nothing') that can enhance the utilization of technology analyses. These approaches demand skills, not always paramount in policy analysts, to run processes that engage stakeholders. We illustrate how process management can enhance the utilization of technology policy analysis through a hypothetical case.     

The Education of a Technology Policy Analyst—to Process Management

Technology policy analysis emphasizes logical resolution of issues based on conceptual models, data, and analyses, but this often is not enough to accomplish anything. Policy-makers routinely disregard policy analyses, even when well done, timely, and pertinent to the issues at hand. Process management complements policy analysis by directing attention to the interactions through which disparate interests reconcile their differences to initiate viable action. We pose five questions that constitute a situational analysis decision tree. Based on answers to those questions, we distinguish five action approaches (including ‘do nothing’) that can enhance the utilization of technology analyses. These approaches demand skills, not always paramount in policy analysts, to run processes that engage stakeholders. We illustrate how process management can enhance the utilization of technology policy analysis through a hypothetical case.     

供应链核心企业社会责任研究——以复杂网络理论为视角

核心企业往往通过制定不合理契约将社会责任风险转移到供应链中的相关利益方.通过复杂网络理论构建核心型供应链网络拓扑结构模型,对核心型供应链网络中社会责任风险传播的非线性动力学行为进行分析,研究表明:一方面,由于供应链网络具有非线性的特点,导致社会责任风险在整个供应链网络中涌现,最终严重影响到核心企业以及供应链的适应性成长;另一方面,核心企业在供应链网络中具有较高的度,对供应链网络的稳定性起到决定性作用.因此,有必要通过强化核心企业的社会责任主导作用来实现供应链社会责任治理.     

Spatially optimal habitat management for enhancing natural control of an invasive agricultural pest: Soybean aphid

By their direct effects on private profitability, invasive agricultural pests create special incentives for management that set them apart from other categories of invasive species. One attractive nonchemical management approach for agricultural pests relies upon biological control by natural enemies. By improving the habitat of natural enemies of invasive agricultural pests, biological pest control can become privately attractive. This study develops a spatial optimization model to explore economically optimal spatial configuration of natural enemy habitat in agricultural landscapes. The model is applied to the management of soybean aphid (Aphis glycines), a recent invasive pest species of soybean production systems in the North Central region of the United States. Results indicate that non-crop habitat management can be a promising pest management option for organic cropping systems. Under current prices, however, habitat management tends to reduce net returns for conventional farms. Both area and configuration of non-crop habitats affect economic performance, with the greatest value coming from small, scattered areas of habitat.     

Modeling the human-induced spread of an aquatic invasive: The case of the zebra mussel

Ecological evidence indicates that transient recreational boating is the principal overland vector of dispersal for several freshwater invasive species. Understanding boating behavior, and how behavior responds to policy changes, is central to understanding the effectiveness of efforts to halt or slow the spread of aquatic invasives. We develop a framework that combines a recreation demand model of boating behavior with a discrete duration model describing the spatial and temporal spread of an aquatic invasive. The integrated approach allows us to link invasion risk probabilities directly to boating behavior, policy levers, and behavior changes arising from policy shocks. With an application to zebra mussels in Wisconsin we show that explicitly accounting for behavioral responses can dramatically change predictions for the effectiveness of particular policies, in some instances leading to increases in invasions risks at some sites.